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The 2 Degrees Limit

10/31/2019 5:39 AM

A couple of weeks ago i watched a program in History Chanell about climate change.

They start from the year of 2017 and they say that at that date the medium temperature is one degree above the average. (And with that one degree we see allready changes in waether)

They make a forecast for the future if the average temperature rises 2 degrees (Cº), and, acording to them the planet will enter in a process of positive feedbacks in climate that will result in a catastrophic scenario, (the end of mankind), in just 100 years more, the temperature rising without control.

I am from Portugal and i can tell that the weather here is not the same that it was 20 years ago (e.g. a lot less rain)

But i would like to ear some opinions on these.

Have a nice day!

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#1

Re: The 2 degrees limit

10/31/2019 7:32 AM

Opinions are just that, opinions. My opinion is, no, I think your wrong, I spent a couple of hours in Lisbon 20 years ago. It was hot and no rain.

If you want a relevant answer, I'm certain there are average rainfall charts going back more than a hundred years. See if there are any trends.

I live in a rainforest, we had far below average rainfall in 2012.

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#9
In reply to #1

Re: The 2 degrees limit

11/04/2019 4:35 AM

certainly you came on summer( and that was(is) normal ... In Portugal climate change is given fact, even for polititians (that they all agree in this case), but they do not metion this Limit. Rivers are getting dry over here! And in a rainforest to have less water is case to concern.

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#49
In reply to #9

Re: The 2 degrees limit

01/15/2020 7:04 PM

You ask for opinions, then berate them....sounds like you have an agenda

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#2

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

10/31/2019 12:37 PM

The world is a complex place. It's not just the tides that ebb and flow...

Case in point, on August 26-27, 1883, the Indonesian volcano, Krakatoa, erupted and impacted the world...

The plume got as high as 80 kilometers, contained six cubic kilometers of rock, ash and pumice, and circled the earth for up to five years...

The average global temprature fell 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Centigrade) during the year following the eruption...

It reportedly noticeably darkened the summer skies over London, England, for the following three years...

Global temperatures returned to normal during 1888...

The Earth, in effect, ''healed'' itself, by itself ...

But, that was before Haiti harvested most of their forestation, Brazil cleared much of the Amazon jungle to raise more cattle, Indonesia burned off much of the jungle to ''create'' more farm land, and 20 of of the world's most polluted cities were measured to be in Asia...

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#5
In reply to #2

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

10/31/2019 11:47 PM

Maybe Yellowstone will save the world (well apart from Wyoming).

As long as it is not Taupo (our New Zealand equivalent), makes Krakatoa seem like a toy.

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#3

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

10/31/2019 3:04 PM

I think we have more than 100 years before climate change makes living here unbearable. There does seem to be evidence that the polar ice is melting and will eventually cause sea rise.

Plants and animals are moving farther north already due to climate change. Rising temperature is melting tundra at never before seen rates in the north. Alaska is thawing and villages are becoming uninhabitable as they sink into the melting prema-frost.

These all point to a warming of the planet.

What for the climate change deniers to attack me. They will.

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#8
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/04/2019 4:27 AM

lyn, you were rated off topic, but you hit right on the spot to me!

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#62
In reply to #3

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/01/2020 10:31 AM

What for the climate change deniers to attack me

Wait for the climate change deniers to attack me

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#63
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/01/2020 10:42 AM

Lyn, when someone disagrees and challenges your opinion you call them attacks and bullies. And then try to pass yourself off as the victim. Why?

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#4

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

10/31/2019 10:44 PM

You need to provide a source for a discussion of a controversial issue like this one. Most of the TV broadcasts are very biased. This actually belongs in the Break Room, as does the previous one.

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#6

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/01/2019 5:15 AM

Its a question what the base value is going to be for this 2 degree limit.

For a good introduction please read here.

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#7

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/01/2019 6:34 PM

Positive feedbacks are a genuine issue IMO, but I don't think there are many climate scientists forecasting an 'end of world' type warming (too hot to live, like Venus for example) in 100 years. I do think that some climate consequences will be coming along sooner than expected because of unaccounted feedbacks - I think that's true because it's frequently in the news that rates of change are being found to be "faster than expected". So the timeline for serious consequences is shortening as new data becomes available.

As for the catastrophic scenario, it's hard to say what would bring about the end of human society as we know it. Droughts lead to famines, floods produce epidemics, hurricanes tornadoes and other severe storms destroy buildings and infrastructure. Shortages of necessities lead to conflict, and war, and migration. If the combination of events is worst then we will be struggling to survive.

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#10
In reply to #7

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/04/2019 4:53 AM

A general question - anybody know the current thinking about the next ice age? Before global warming became fashionable the worry was about an ice age, in 5000 - 10000 years, seen as very likely at the time. That would have a devastating effect on civilisation.

Is global warming going to prevent an ice age, and which is worse?

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/04/2019 6:55 AM

Here's a reputable source:

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/what-happens-after-global-warming-25887608/

Global warming will delay the next ice age by at least 50,000 years, longer depending on how much of our fossil fuels are burnt. There will be an ice age eventually, whether we switch to alternative energy now or keep on burning until those fuels are completely used up.

With what we are learning about our ability to affect climate, there's an obvious benefit to conserving the fossil fuel stores for a future ice age scenario - foreseen or unforeseen.

This article I linked also briefly describes the alternative 'warming' scenarios, comparing the known warmer periods in the past that is the Eemian and the PETM. So it also gives an answer to the OP, regarding "end of the world" outcome fears vs realistic expectations in a changed world, depending on our choices in the near future.

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#12
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/04/2019 8:27 AM

Thanks for that. Interesting link.

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#13
In reply to #10

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/04/2019 5:12 PM
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#14
In reply to #7

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/05/2019 2:02 PM

I would strongly suggest watching the documentary "Crude - the incredible journey of oil". Most of this stuff is not new but put together well and you could think about how we would feed the world if we took the majority of the world's sea food off the table.

If you are aware of the Gaia philosophy, you would understand the world will fix itself (as it has done in the past) but most beings alive today will have a rough time in the interim.

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#15
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/05/2019 2:41 PM

What I meant is that there is no predictable timeline for social collapse, which could be driven by any number or combination of unforecastable events. I mean, events which are in fact expected (extreme weather for example, is bound to affect food supply not only seafood but any and all of it) but cannot be forecast as to when or in what combination they will occur - not to mention the role of political leadership, economy, the monetary system, etc which are highly unstable and therefore vulnerable in the same context to contribute to a disastrous end instead of somehow keeping it together.

I don't subscribe to the complacency that the world will fix itself, nor do I have any certainty that we are incapable of damaging the world to the point of making it uninhabitable. My comments were only relative to the single effect of warming by 2 degrees or more, and what we might expect from that according to the science of the day.

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#20
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/04/2019 12:34 AM

So the warming of 2 deg Celsius, which amounts to not even 1% more energy in the atmosphere does worry you?

How good we disassemble our power generation, civilization, industries and societies based on these worries, NOT.

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#22
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/04/2019 5:07 AM

No doubt politics comes into it. You only have to look at Zimbabwe. Once it was the breadbasket of Africa, but after 40-odd years of Mugabe the people are starving. Can't blame that on climate change.

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#26
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/07/2019 8:51 PM

Social collapse, you Americans got a taste of that with the Mississippi flooding. The veil of civilisation is pretty thin.

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#29
In reply to #26

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/08/2019 4:07 AM

First you need to understand the Mississippi before you put your stamp on it.

the Mississippi River is a river tamed by man, with flood walls and levees so that 33,000 farms and 1.5 million homes can be built along the Mississippi. And taming Mother Nature, never really ends well.

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#16

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/05/2019 3:09 PM

Mankind will adapt, that is why we have a big brain and opposing thumbs....

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#17
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/13/2019 4:17 AM

do you know Murphy Law? It happens!

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#18
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/25/2019 4:30 AM

Pff! Off topic... I am starting to question the Juri good judgment!

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#64
In reply to #16

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/02/2020 12:47 PM

There is a threat to the future of mankind that can’t be ignored...

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#19

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

11/30/2019 4:47 AM

This is what scientists thought in 1978....

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#21
In reply to #19

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/04/2019 4:41 AM

I ask if they had computers back then?

In any case they agree that a change the weather is to be expected, and we should be worried if that´s so...

I dont know if you see TV (I have lost of time now) and climate change is the recurrent theme in the air. In these days there´s a meeting in Spain (with several nations) debating just that and what to do.Do you think they are playing? Do you think there´s no reason for thousands of scientists advert for the coming catastrophe? What the politicians dont give is that Limit for the point of no return. (But they do speak in a point of no return)

For me is clear that in the countrie I live in the weather is different (the rivers are drying) and is more hot.In a nation like the USA maybe is more hard understand that, because the clima is continental in most of the nation.But in the edges there must be changes occurring. You just have to follow the news.

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#54
In reply to #19

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/18/2020 3:07 AM

Media had started staging even back then... presenting the views of global cooling in a winter coat... now, it’ll be in Bermuda shorts.

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#23

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/04/2019 6:32 AM

Yet people go through the motions on how they care... by flying to a climate change summit... what can’t these ‘we care’ hypocrite ‘summits’ be held on a video conference?

is it because they can’t hit the taxpayer funded fully stocked liquor cabinets on the large carbon footprint planes they fly in?

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#33
In reply to #23

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/09/2019 4:31 AM

do you imagine 190 countries in video conference? and now they are drunk too?

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#35
In reply to #33

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/09/2019 6:50 AM

Not surprising, You miss the point all together...

its actually more like,... ‘do as I say, not as I do’,

As far as alcoholics using climate battle as an excuse, yes.

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#37
In reply to #35

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/11/2019 4:29 AM

You think this is about me? Did you read all the posts? I have little time to live(so it´s very likely I wont witness the doom), but the program that I talked about is a warning for those that are alive. And if they are correct it will be painful (and slow)!

As far as evidence is needed, they are appearing all around, mate...

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#40
In reply to #37

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/11/2019 11:43 AM

Unsurprisingly Again,... you’re still missing the point...

it not about you, but people like you. With the ‘do as I say, not as I do’ mindset.

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#41
In reply to #40

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/12/2019 4:32 AM

So lets dump the air with more toxics. everything is nice and dandy...

Dont say you were not warned!

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#42
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/12/2019 6:51 AM

Still don’t get it do you?...

So you either live in a cave, or you’re the do as I say and not as I do bs’r.

and you don’t live in a cave.

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#44
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/16/2019 4:29 AM

You know phoenix991, you must be truly a free will! I bet that you walk on the waters, fly at supersonic speeds and in spare time (my favorite) you raise the death!

Are you Jeova Witness, are you the son of God?

ps: that TV show i first started the discussion was the alert... I hapen to know that the climate is changing.

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#45
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/16/2019 11:15 AM

It does say a lot about you if this is the way you respond when you’re challenged?

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#46
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/18/2019 4:37 AM

Is that a question or an observation?

enjoy: https://youtu.be/mke3x4Hstd4

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#24

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/04/2019 4:30 PM

I think it is pretty obvious by now that scientists are trying to scare everybody to get funding to perpetuate these studies, so they don't have to go out and get real jobs....Maybe it's time to find a source of funding that doesn't rely on end-of-the-world predictions...This doesn't seem to be a sustainable model...anymore

https://www.salon.com/2019/06/30/the-problem-with-predicting-the-end-the-world/

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#27
In reply to #24

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/07/2019 9:04 PM

When everyone else is in a panic and you remain calm, then clearly you don’t understand the problem.

Global warming was predicted centuries ago and now it is coming. The biggest problem is the inertia of the system and feedback.

The consequences of changing polar albedo and release of tundra methane etc may mean we can’t stop the train no matter what resources we pour into the problem and we can’t get off.

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#28
In reply to #27

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/07/2019 10:20 PM

Maybe that's because despite all the frantic hoopla, nothing bad is happening....it's all good stuff....

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#30
In reply to #28

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/08/2019 4:09 AM

Ya,... join the party... and ‘act’ as though you care about climate change, like the rest of us, as we jet around showing people how much ‘we care’.

See how fun it is.

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#50
In reply to #28

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/16/2020 2:52 AM

Try and convince an Australian (not the politicians) that nothing bad is happening.

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#51
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/16/2020 9:21 AM

Poor forest management is caused by ignorance not global warming....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/opinion/australia-fires-aboriginal-people.html

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#53
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/16/2020 10:03 PM

Agree, but our fire services carry out far more cold burning than 750,000 aboriginals ever could have in this vast land. We should certainly listen to and learn from the old ways, but don't let a newspaper opinion piece detract from unprecedented drought and unprecedented temperatures. Not all the scientists can be wrong.

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#25

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/06/2019 4:37 AM

The amount of skepticism is large (no wander Trump won the election) ... I just hope that the show is wrong, the vast majority of scientists to be wrong, my witness is wrong!

But I dont believe in miracles (do believe in God dough. may He have mercy on us all)

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#52
In reply to #25

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/16/2020 9:28 PM

Perhaps voters were skeptical of his opponent?

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#31

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/08/2019 4:53 AM

This is oddly interesting.

Study shows prolonged isolation may have made Antarctic scientists’ brains shrink by 10%

If this and may or not explain a lot,... or at the very least create controversy.

or maybe, ‘Oh looky here, another study.”

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#32
In reply to #31

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/08/2019 10:55 AM

The ice is/isn't shrinking in the Antarctic...

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#34

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/09/2019 4:39 AM

I think the subscribers would like to know that in COP25they have set the point of no return 10 years from now! Still dont mention any 2 degrees limit dough!

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#36
In reply to #34

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/09/2019 12:22 PM

Yes, but are those the same people that predicted that New York city would be under 20 feet of water by 2012?

..."New York City underwater? Gas over $9 a gallon? A carton of milk costs almost $13? Welcome to June 12, 2015. Or at least that was the wildly-inaccurate version of 2015 predicted by ABC News exactly seven years ago. Appearing on Good Morning America in 2008, Bob Woodruff hyped Earth 2100, a special that pushed apocalyptic predictions of the then-futuristic 2015."...

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/scott-whitlock/2015/06/12/flashback-abcs-08-prediction-nyc-under-water-climate-change-june

Haha, yeah that was close....

So they try again....

..."A new study has warned that global sea levels could rise by more than 2 meters, which is 6.6 feet, by the end of this century(2100) if emissions continue unchecked. This means that major cities across the world like New York and Shanghai could end up submerged and will displace up to 187 million people.May 23, 2019"...

Oh wait... you missed this little detail...

..."What is the sea level of New York City?

Elevation...33ft"...

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#38
In reply to #36

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/11/2019 4:37 AM

I dont know that prediction, but rest sure that the signs are all over the place. Like I told you before in USA (maibe) the climate is mainly continental so it will take more time to be noticed. But when it does will we get in time to fix? And how will the rest of the world be?

You are a good browser, I give you that, but dont believe everything that have a website...

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#39
In reply to #38

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/11/2019 11:37 AM

I would give you the same advice...if I gave advice that is....

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#43

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

12/13/2019 3:02 AM

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#47

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/15/2020 4:54 AM

Theres some good links to support the discussion:

https://www.sciencealert.com/even-if-the-world-warms-2-degrees-it-could-get-even-hotter-for-most-humans

https://climate.nasa.gov/ (the real NASA)

And there is loads of stuff about this on the web.

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#48
In reply to #47

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/15/2020 6:00 PM

Not to confuse quantity with quality . . .

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#55

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/19/2020 12:13 AM

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#56
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/31/2020 4:59 AM

It is sad that you are on the bad guys side,on this one. I dont know if you are aware but fossil fuels are going to end, and lets see what to do next! It wont even have to be a climate revolution.

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#57
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Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/31/2020 11:40 AM

" . . . bad guys side." ??

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#58
In reply to #56

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/31/2020 1:32 PM

Do you realize where fertilizers are derive from, I would have to say, no you don’t.

there is a list of products made from fossil fuel that’s so long, that if taken away your life would be lucky if you were naked living in a cave.

bad guys side?...

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#59
In reply to #58

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/31/2020 2:45 PM

The best fertilizers come from the east end of a horse going west.

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#60
In reply to #59

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/31/2020 3:29 PM

Also horse manure doesn’t burn up the plants. Tomatoes love it.

but back to my point...

” When ammonia is used as the nitrogen source in a fertilizer, one method of synthetic production requires the use of natural gas and air. The phosphorus component is made using sulfur, coal, and phosphate rock. The potassium source comes from potassium chloride, a primary component of potash.”

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#65
In reply to #60

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/02/2020 10:41 PM

Where does nitrogen come from in a natural system (i.e. anywhere on earth where people aren't carrying off goodies and not putting anything back) well from natural sources of course.

Why do you think so many colonising plants are nitrogen fixers?

With the mechanisation of agriculture came destructive and extractive processes which drove the fertiliser industry.

The Dutch brought use of sewage as fertiliser to the UK way back and greatly increased market garden productivity.

There's virtually no money to be made by selling good practices, you can make a lot more money selling a chemical solution.

The same way the big food industries sell all that sugar in every food and then you pay a fortune in dieting and hospital bills.

These same forces are frantically making sure there is a smoke screen so people won't feel compelled to act on the slow moving car-crash which is the environmental crisis.

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#66
In reply to #65

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/02/2020 10:50 PM

What’s your point?...

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#61
In reply to #56

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

01/31/2020 5:37 PM

Fossil fuel usage will not be ending anytime in the foreseeable future....in fact it is still growing...

Life on this planet is sustained by the Sun....the only other source is nuclear energy....

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#67
In reply to #61

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/03/2020 4:49 AM

Thats very comforting... So lets see when it ends!

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#68
In reply to #61

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/03/2020 2:16 PM

Oddly, they are all nuclear energy derived.

However, I prefer the nuclear power source to be at a safe distance - say about 150 million km

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#69
In reply to #68

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/03/2020 2:34 PM

Nuclear energy is the safest by far of any energy source....

..."The last few years have seen growing concern over what happens to solar panels at the end of their life. Consider the following statements:

* The problem of solar panel disposal “will explode with full force in two or three decades and wreck the environment” because it “is a huge amount of waste and they are not easy to recycle.”

* “The reality is that there is a problem now, and it’s only going to get larger, expanding as rapidly as the PV industry expanded 10 years ago.”

* “Contrary to previous assumptions, pollutants such as lead or carcinogenic cadmium can be almost completely washed out of the fragments of solar modules over a period of several months, for example by rainwater.”"...

https://www.americanexperiment.org/2019/08/environmental-disaster-solar-energy/

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#70
In reply to #69

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/03/2020 4:05 PM

Not to mention the carbon footprint it uses to make the panel in the first place, as well as toxic waste that’s created.

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#71
In reply to #70

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/05/2020 1:37 PM

..."

Wind Turbine Blades Can’t Be Recycled, So They’re Piling Up in Landfills

Companies are searching for ways to deal with the tens of thousands of blades that have reached the end of their lives."...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-05/wind-turbine-blades-can-t-be-recycled-so-they-re-piling-up-in-landfills

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#72
In reply to #71

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/05/2020 5:14 PM

I was thinking more as the manufacturing of solar panels,... but thanks for bringing that up... it’s also the toxic footprint windmills create under usage.

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#73

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/07/2020 4:57 AM

Some of us (all dough with knowledge of Electrical Engineering) think that was possible to make miracles... No one speaks about the footprint of conventional sources of energy (that some posters might think that have none) that is immense. How about the nuclear waste residues? Nuclear energy is only safe when theres no problem, but when the "shit hits the fan" theres problems for centuries!

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#74
In reply to #73

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/09/2020 4:17 PM

No not really...

..."As of 1993, worldwide, 520 atmospheric nuclear explosions (including 8 underwater) have been conducted with a total yield of 545 megaton (Mt): 217 Mt from fission and 328 Mt from fusion, while the estimated number of underground nuclear tests conducted in the period from 1957 to 1992 is 1,352 explosions with a total ..."...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests

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#75
In reply to #74

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

02/13/2020 4:34 AM

Well "Dr. Strangelove", I´m sure that all those blasts made wonders for the planet...

And you are avoiding all the crucial questions. This is not about nuclear energy, all dough you forget about Chernobyl and Fukoshima, among others.

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#77
In reply to #73

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

04/21/2020 4:03 PM

My understanding is the coal fired power stations are pretty good emitters of radioactive materials in their exhaust plumes, along with plenty of other wonderful stuff.

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#76

Re: The 2 Degrees Limit

04/21/2020 4:25 AM

Temperature rises are already happening all over the world, and where I live, the climate has changed dramatically. I was writing a paper with https://eduzaurus.com/free-essay-samples/global-warming/ and found information that temperature jumps have a very negative effect on flora and fauna. Since nature adapts to climate change, much longer than changes are currently happening. And many animals and plants cannot adapt to such rapid changes so quickly and perish. This is a serious problem.

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