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Contact Tracing Implications

06/09/2020 8:01 PM

Wow, I just read this article on how we could've stopped Covid from spreading if we used Contact Tracing. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-california-gene-study/index.html

The article states that Covid came to California on numerous occasions and in some instances the spread stopped. In other cases, it spread. Why? We don't know.

I was wondering if someone here found a model showing the spread of Covid and what would've happened if Contract Tracing were used? I'd be interested to see if it could've been prevented or if it's inevitable unless we "quarantine" ourselves from the outside world - outside the US.

Last week, I receive an email about using our phones for Contact Tracing. There was a video attached, which tied in some "wishful thinking" and conspiracy theory. I didn't bite, but I was interested, so I looked up some of the information. Their interpretation of many items was skewed so far to one side that I chose to ignore the entire article. The point I'm making is that there are people on both sides fighting for/against Contact Tracing. The better good for all vs our rights.

What do you think?

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#1

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/09/2020 8:20 PM

Here's the technical info. I'm not an expert in this field, so I don't understand the details. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/05/science.abb9263

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#2

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/09/2020 8:29 PM

Contact tracing is common practice in combating an infectious disease...unfortunately in the case of covid19 the cat was already out of the bag and down the road before anybody knew what was happening....It's little help in pulling out a weed by the roots once it's spread its seed far and wide....This failure to begin at the beginning is thanks to the Chinese gov and leader of the WHO...

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#4
In reply to #2

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/09/2020 10:08 PM

I'd like to play a what if game.

If, back when this started, we had contact tracing via our phones"

1. What do you think the chance that we could've traced this back to the first person/people who brought it to the US?

2. Is is probable/feasible to believe that we could've traced the contacts and put them under quarantine?

3. Or does the number of contacts grow so fast that it can't be traced?

When this first started, I had a discussion with my better half. I told her that I ate at A, B, C, D, E, F, etc. Went to the dry cleaners twice. Saw x number of clients. Had business meetings with x,y,z and a,b,c. Interacted with p,q,r,s,t,u,v ... at the office. Went to the store 1, 2 and 3. Passed on the trail when I went hiking ... Everyone who I met, was in proximity indoors, rode in their Uber/Lyft car, sat next to me on the train, was near me on the train platform, parked near me, banking at the credit union, B of A office, passed by outdoors, AT&T store, was in the same building (store, office, restaurant), sat in the car with me, etc. Could these people be traced back to me in a 14 day period? Then you have to trace every person they've been near. Is it possible to contact all of these people and tell them to self quarantine?

I told her that I didn't think it was possible to contact everyone. I also told her that I "touch" so many people in a two week period that it's too large a number. Then each person I "touched" would have to have a list of people they "touched" and so on and so on. This was before I watched the video from the conspiracy theorists. Our cell phone should be able to track our movement (to a very small error) and overlapping it with a time clock, it could be a way to connect all the people who are at risk. Then the people could be notified with a demand to self quarantine. If they don't self quarantine, they can be tracked - as long as they don't do something like switch phones with someone else. As an incentive, the government could give some sort of "guarantee pay without repercussion" to the people who followed. It may work. And the benefit is that everyone else could go about their normal life - hopefully the virus would be stopped.

For future outbreaks, and we know others will come, this may be something that needs to be done. We will give up some of our freedoms AND criminal will have to be careful, because they can be traced to a crime scene. Also people who are doing things they shouldn't (cheating around, drinking and driving, drugs, gambling, etc) may not want this because there's no place to hide. Will our society accept being tracked? As far as I know, we already are, to some degree.

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#8
In reply to #4

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 9:48 AM

I would agree that the number of "possible infected" grows geometrically in time and contact tracing is very unlikely to be 100 percent efficient. But if even just a portion of the infected individuals are quarantined before they infect more, it would help to slow the spread of the disease. It doesn't have to be 100 percent efficient to be beneficial.

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#12
In reply to #8

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 2:14 PM

Very good point. Though I'll throw another idea into the mix.

If we contact trace and are 90% effective, the other 10% are potential spreaders. However of the 10%, maybe only 1% contacted the virus in a large enough amount to cause illness or incubate inside them. That's the good part.

The bad part is that we've flattened a flattened curve, but only for a short time. Let me explain. The few who are carriers will spread the virus, but at a much slower pace (since we've already quarantined 90%). Again 10% will escape and only 1% of those will be ill. The spread will continue and will very slowly grow. In the meantime, we'll have so many people under quarantine, the economy will grind to a halt. We'll still have people getting sick, other asymptomatic and others dying. It'll just take longer for the virus to get up to full speed, but it will. So we're just prolonging the effects.

To try to prevent anyone from getting sick or dying is futile. Just like a normal flu, it spreads and unless you have the right antibodies, you're very likely to get sick or you may be one of the lucky ones who is asymptomatic.

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#27
In reply to #12

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 9:44 AM

Consider the average number of people a sick person infects, the infection rate. If this is greater than 1, the virus spreads. If it is less than 1, the virus will die out.

You can drive the infection rate lower by locating and quarantining infected individuals. It's also naturally driven lower by the number of recovered people developing immunity (herd immunity), which accounts for the decline of the curve over time. It's like a forest fire running out of trees to burn.

The point is that you don't have to isolate every infected person, but if you can isolate enough to drive the infection rate below 1, the virus will die out. Contact tracing is a surgical approach, and far less destructive than the current blunt-force method of closing down the economy.

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#38
In reply to #27

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 4:00 PM

With an incubation period of up to 14 days and the contagiousness of CV, I think the number of people a sick person will infect will be higher than 1, even with contact tracing.

I had read something a couple months ago, which discussed how contagious CV is. Though not even close to that of a very contagious virus like measles, yet it's high enough to have susceptible people take precautionary measures.

I think you hit a good point. With the number of recovered people increasing the virus burns itself out - I like your forest fire analogy. Just like the chart of the progress of the virus - and the subsequent "flattening of the curve" chart. However unless a "cure" is found, the area under the curve remains the same, whether we shut down the economy or not.

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#9
In reply to #4

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 11:39 AM

The data needn't be used for things other than combatting contagions. No rights to privacy neceasarily needs to be infringed upon.

There is no reason personal info such as movements should be made available, beyond that minimally necessary to investigate challenges to enforcement of quarantines (and then only to the parties necessary to settle such a dispute).

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#13
In reply to #9

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 2:15 PM

Agreed, 100%. How do you keep others from using the information?

Also, do we wipe out HIPAA? And will people accept it?

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#14
In reply to #13

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 2:18 PM

When it comes to power, we have to be very careful we don't go down the slippery slope. History shows that we start with good intentions, but someone has an idea on how to benefit from it and things change.

This is why I'm such an advocate for the spirit of the law over the letter of the law.

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#20
In reply to #14

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 5:20 AM

All you need is something like Facebook to get the information and good intentions vanish into the mire of profit!

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#31
In reply to #20

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 1:31 PM

Spot on!

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#26
In reply to #13

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 8:41 AM

Personally, I believe your comment about power being a slippery slope, and not being able to trust every successive potential user of the data, are very well taken. In addition, my personal Mantra has been for a long time that a strong Constitution requires constant exposure. My wife, my daughter and I all believe from the symptomology that we have had Covid 19 clear back in January of 2020. We certainly experienced a weird flu unlike any we had ever had, and it was miserable, and all of the related symptoms occurred. I'm 65, and in good general health. My wife is 65 and has a couple of Health complications, but we survived it. And the mortality rate seems to have been very low overall by percentage of population. Horrible, yes, but I believe very likely not to be able to hit us again in the same way, and there will always be flus, there will always be illnesses. So it's inevitable, some will contract it, or it's successor, some will die, I personally would prefer not to give up what little freedom I still have to a potential totalitarian government, in order to avoid that which is inevitable, anyway.

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#32
In reply to #26

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 1:37 PM

Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century#:~:text=Benjamin%20Franklin%20once%20said%3A%20%22Those,and%20concerns%20about%20government%20surveillance.

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#40
In reply to #32

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 4:47 PM

Excellent point. Even though our founding fathers were around some 250 years ago, I believe their core beliefs were valid then and now.

I spent hours at Independence Hall reading the documents on display. It was eye opening to stand in the room where they gathered to discuss and approve the Declaration of Independence! I believe everyone in our country should stand in that room!

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#37
In reply to #26

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 3:41 PM

Very well put. I'm on the fence on this one. Yes, I think using technology to help is a good thing. Yes, I believe that we should have the right to know if someone is walking around spreading a virus. However, I take exception to someone trying to take my rights away from me and I greatly value the freedom I have.

I'm definitely upset about the actions our state (CA) has taken and in particular, the county I live in (Los Angeles). The media has scared the general public to the point where they're willing to give up their freedom. And this is the slippery slope I'm worried about.

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#45
In reply to #37

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/12/2020 9:16 PM

This pandemic has a silver lining in it for some.

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#3

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/09/2020 10:05 PM

The main problem they have had with contact tracing in all of the Ebola outbreaks is that one of the symptoms of Ebola is the irresistible urge to go to the nearest airport.

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#5
In reply to #3

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/09/2020 10:11 PM

Do you see it being possible that every person at the airport who is in contact with a carrier can be tracked. Also the people on the plane, airport bus, hotel, coffee shop, restaurant ... can be tracked. Then everyone who is being tracked will need their contract traced. And so on and so on and so on.

The number will grow large, but if it can stop the spread of a virus, is it worth the loss of freedom from being traced?

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#7
In reply to #3

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 7:46 AM

Yes it seems that half the population of Wuhan had the sudden urge to travel to nearly every corner of the globe...and then interact with as many people as possible, in the shortest time possible...

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#15
In reply to #7

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 2:21 PM

The area is a business center with industrial production. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people travel there for business.

What I find very interesting is that I expected more travel between Wuhan and other parts of China. We didn't see huge outbreaks in other parts of the country. Very strange and I haven't heard a good explanation. However, the virus spread very quickly to other parts of the world?

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#17
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Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 5:48 PM
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#18
In reply to #17

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 6:38 PM

People are asking a similar question here, about Canada. There are interprovincial travel restrictions, but at Toronto international airport the flights keep coming in from all points of the globe (but this is getting political).

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#19
In reply to #17

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 5:20 AM

The most recent research in the UK has found that CV was spread by multiple points of entry. The majority were from Europe (particularly Italy & Spain). Very few from China.

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#21
In reply to #19

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 5:27 AM

In Australia a large number of infections were caused by floating petri dishes, sorry cruise liners where the contagion was refined and spread and then the passengers were allowed to disembark and spread their disease to the wider community.

Early on the borders were closed both internally and externally and the external ones are still closed with some cross state borders being opened slowly.

As for contact tracing on apps on mobile phones, can you trust any government to do the right thing and considering the Australian information is stored in the USA if stories are to be believed what value is government guarantees?

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#30
In reply to #21

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 1:30 PM

"As for contact tracing on apps on mobile phones, can you trust any government to do the right thing ... what value is government guarantees?"

That's harsh, but unfortunately true. It's sad to have such distrust for our leaders; so much so that we can't utilize technology for the good of mankind!

I've always been concerned that a CEO would use the data for the wrong purpose. Data collected from our phones is used for advertising and with 5G, even more of the data will be collected and used.

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#33
In reply to #21

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 1:43 PM

"As for contact tracing on apps on mobile phones, can you trust any government to do the right thing and considering the Australian information is stored in the USA if stories are to be believed what value is government guarantees?"

An example of this is firearms background checks which by law are supposed to be discarded and electronic versions erased after 3 years. These records have been retained by police agencies and the ATF despite the law.

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#41
In reply to #33

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 4:49 PM

I just read Rixter's post on Ben Franklin's quote. It's amazing how far we've strayed from the concepts that founded our great nation!

Very sad indeed!

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#24
In reply to #19

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 8:19 AM

But had those from Italy and Spain been in China recently, in Wuhan? Or elsewhere, where those people had been from or in Wuhan? And, of note because of the earlier comment about the industrial center, I have a very very good friend who is in Louisiana now in the USA whose daughter was in Wuhan for the preceding 6 months as an English teacher. She is thankfully fine, but certainly there are a lot of people from other countries who would have been in Wuhan for one reason or another. Nothing Sinister to that it seems.

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#36
In reply to #24

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 3:34 PM

Great to see another point of view. There's a lot of people who feel China did something intentional.

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#29
In reply to #17

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 1:23 PM

Wow!!! That's upsetting to read!

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#16
In reply to #7

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 4:55 PM

I saw an on-line graphic back the spring. It was an image of a ball, representing planet earth, and covered with curved lines representing international flights for one day. It looked like a basketball obscured by a swarm of bees.

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#25
In reply to #3

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 8:25 AM

Add in the fact that Ebola "Burns through its available food" so rapidly that it literally eats through the available population of targets and then starves itself each time it breaks out. Something that spreads that quickly and kills that consistently, might be impossible to contact trace but certainly would not yield very much useful data in the process. in addition the shear speed of an Ebola burn might keep it from even being worthwhile to contact race. Quarantining might not hit quickly enough to do any good.

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#6

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 3:40 AM

In the UK, it would be reasonable and recognisable that between 2000 and 3000 lives would end every day across all causes.

An Engineer might ask:

  • At what point does the signal of Covid19-related deaths get lost in the noise of all the others?
  • At what point does the focus shift away from Covid-19 deaths onto tackling the highest cause among all the others?
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#10
In reply to #6

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 12:58 PM

I don't know about UK practices, but I'm told by practicing physicians in the US that it is specifically still illegal to falsify the actual cause of death on death certificates;, but I wonder about the accuracy of death rate counts during pandemics given the sources. By the way, the handling of data by analysts is a source of controversy in the medical community!

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/10/2020 2:03 PM

I have a friend who is a nurse and I was told that the hospitals get extra money for claiming the death was due to CV. So a heart attack is not longer the reason, as long as the person tested positive for CV. Ditto for lung disease, cancer, etc.

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#22
In reply to #11

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 7:35 AM

Typical hospital gossip, why would you post something like this here? If you want to feed the antifa's, this isn't the place....

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#34
In reply to #22

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 3:24 PM

Come on! This isn't hospital gossip. The data is collected by each county - here in CA.

This has nothing to do with antifa - I think you can tell by my posts over the years that I'm 180 degrees out of phase with them.

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#43
In reply to #22

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 4:54 PM

Sorry if my last response was too harsh. It was a knee jerk reaction to seeing my post tied to antifa.

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#47
In reply to #43

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/13/2020 10:06 AM

I don't think you realize how far left you are....you live in the environment...If you want to find out, put on a MAGA hat while you're traveling around and watch the reactions you get...but be prepared to remove it and replace it with an Obama hat quickly...haha

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#48
In reply to #47

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/13/2020 12:07 PM

This is everybody in California...

Then they go home to their million dollar homes and eat sushi and drink wine and tell anybody who is trapped into listening how they are making a change and fighting for the planet...when really all they are is annoying...

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#62
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Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/01/2020 1:53 AM

Okay Solar,

This state does have some screwballs, I'll give you that, but there are some really great people here.

Unfortunately, the cost of living is much too high, taxes are too high and it takes a big paycheck to survive. I enjoy living here; it's not perfect, but I haven't found a place that is.

Pros:

1. Weather is as close to perfect as you can get.

2. Lots of beautiful sunshine.

3. The beach is a one hour drive away!

4. I can be in the mountains in less than 10 minutes!

5. Income is higher.

6. Car prices are relatively less (relative to income) than most places in the country.

7. You are as close to guaranteed to make money in real estate (it takes a very long time to save $1M from a job).

8. Cars don't rust (unless you live less than a 1/4 mile from the ocean).

9. There's some incredible skiing out here.

10. There's some awesome mtn bike trails to ride.

11. If you like carving corners, there's some of the best driving roads here.

12. The biggest trees by volume (Giant Sequoias) are here.

13. The tallest trees are here (Redwoods).

14. Lots of places to people-watch.

15. Home to some of the most beautiful women!!!

16. Driving distance to Las Vegas, Tijuana and the Wine Country (fun things to do).

17. You see some incredible cars here.

18. The best burritos!!!

19. Pastrami sandwiches!!!

20. You can get almost anything you want here.

21. Yosemite!!!!!

22. Some of the best fresh fruits and vegetables.

23. Santa Barbara!!!

24. An outdoors culture.

25. We want to look good and keep in shape.

26. Very little humidity!!!!!

27. Cool vibe in many places.

28. Newport Beach!!!!

29. Corona del Mar!!!!

30. Natural hot springs.

31. Great camping!

32. Napa Valley Cabs!!!

33. Central Coast Pinot Noirs!!!!

34. Santa Ynez Syrah!!!

35. Tan bodies!!!

Cons:

1. Overcrowded cities.

2. Homeless.

3. High cost of living.

4. Property values that make no sense.

5. DMV fees are high.

6. Sales tax is high.

7. Food is expensive.

8. Air quality can be bad (210 corridor east of Pomona)!!

9. High cost to run a business.

10. Too many regulations.

11. Crazy laws.

12. Stinky school system (most parts of the state).

13. Overcrowded UC and Cal State University system.

14. Gang problems

15. Drug problems

16. No buffer zone between $10M neighborhoods and the slums.

17. Terrible news broadcasts

18. Gold diggers

19. Can get very hot in some areas.

20. Corrupt politicians

21. People too busy to really care.

22. We're a car culture - a little too much.

23. Nobody walks in LA!

24. Mass transit needs improvement.

25. Bullet train????

26. Earthquakes!!!

To me, the pros outweigh the cons. To each his own!

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#55
In reply to #47

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/17/2020 12:50 AM

Me left?

Socialism = good

Government giveaways = better

Everyone is equal = Our Goal!

Just kidding!

I don't think of myself as far right. Definitely not far left.

I was a big Trump fan until his CV response - I think he showed his true color, which was not good.

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#23
In reply to #11

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 7:58 AM

That isn't how payments to hospitals work. Not for medicare nor for insurance. Payments to hospitals are based on medical treatments received and time occupying a bed as well as coverage and what area the hospital is in.

Cause of death doesn't figure in. If you are in the hospital and receiving chemotherapy, your bill doesn't change if at 9pm the cancer kills you or if someone smothers you with a pillow.

A state senator gave some very misleading statements on the Laura Ingram show suggesting hospitals were receiving additional flat rate incentives for claiming patients were being treated covid-19 but this has been well documented as misinformation. You can find plenty of sites that do a good job discrediting what the senator was suggesting.

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#35
In reply to #23

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 3:31 PM

I just asked my friend and she confirmed it's in the CARES act package. When I have a moment, I'll verify.

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#44
In reply to #35

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/12/2020 1:02 PM

Have you found anything?

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#53
In reply to #44

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/17/2020 12:11 AM

I just got back from my condo. Here's what my friend sent me. I verified that it's correct.

https://www.calhospital.org/sites/main/files/file-attachments/federal_funding_options_050620_final_0.pdf

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#59
In reply to #53

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/26/2020 8:29 AM

This does appear to show hospitals getting a 20% bonus for patients positive for covid -19.

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#49
In reply to #35

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/14/2020 11:01 AM

Hospitals get reimbursed for covid19 testing expenses...

https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr748/BILLS-116hr748enr.pdf

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/14/2020 1:46 PM

Yes. That is a procedure, i.e. testing for COVID-19. They do not get an incentive if the results are positive for COVID-19.

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#28

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 11:41 AM

The discussion is pretty much academic and inserting contact tracing now is way too little and way too late.

The French journal Sciences reported a study done by doctors looking into earliest known cases in France and went back to look at pneumonia deaths during December and found 24 cases previously diagnosed as pneumonia on or about December 19. Evaluation of archival blood samples showed all to have been infected with COVID19. Another recent study found hospital traffic in Wunan, China based on satellite photos sharply up ticked during October 2019, which was about the time the Chinese doctor credited with noticing the virus started emailing other doctors asking, have you noticed this?

Initial parameters reported in China and repeated in the Washington state reported numbers showed hospitalizations and deaths doubling every four days prior to lockdown. Initial replication factor was estimated at 4, which meant that during the infectious phase of the disease before isolation, one case would create four new infections. In the assisted living community in Washington where underlying medical conditions were present, the disease progress went from initial symptom to red eyes to death in 24 hours.

The evidence so far seems to point to entry of COVID19 into the US no later than December, but much more likely as early as October/November with the primary path by air through New York, Seattle and either Los Angeles or San Francisco. I ran a doubling every four days calculation for free-range spread based on December 19, one case in New York, one in Seattle and one in San Francisco and the total anticipated infections based on doubling rate and replications came to about 3 million infections by March 8. It's interesting to note that last week 10,000 random antibody tests in Italy show 57% positive and a similar randon test in New York showed 30% positive if you can believe the news.

I'm located in Oregon, one of the states where we are avoiding reported infections through the expedient of refraining to test for it. Yesterday in Multnomah County, we had 32 new reported cases, none of which came from a known source and are designated as "community spread". Contact tracing at that point is about as effective as sorting the brown M&Ms out of a 20 ton shipment of random M&Ms with a teaspoon. For contact tracing to be effective, you have to assume the disease is rare and that you can actually establish known contacts. You go to the grocery store and buy a bunch of bananas and four days later present with a symptom. Do you actually know anyone that you were near for the week before that you could report by name? Does the grocery store know the names of people who were there? How the heck do you contact trace it? During the measles scare, it was common for the news to report a location, date and time where a measles case was known to be present. COVID19 is so endemic at this time that such warnings would be too frequent and pervasive to be meaningful because even if you were there, testing is unavailable to allow anyone to do anything about it.

I'm still optimistic. I think the domestic infection rate is actually much higher than reported and herd immunity is beginning to kick in, particularly in New York City. I am waiting for widespread antibody testing results or a vaccine and then the panic will have a chance of ending.

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#39
In reply to #28

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 4:44 PM

Great information and analysis. I believe that contact tracing via cell phone will be more effective than your M&M analogy - the system will be automated, so the tracking mechanism will work very quickly and it can go back in time (review data collected from days ago). My thought is that if contract tracing could be use to slow the spread, it could be used in place of a shut down. A much more effective solution.

Economically, a shut down is just about the worst thing you can do. Again, I'm of the belief this would've played out differently if we weren't in an election year. I don't want to go into this further - this is just my belief.

In the future, contact tracing might be a good solution, however we as a society need to decide if we want to be tracked, what will the data also be used for and if we want to give up our freedom. These are big things we need to decide.

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#46
In reply to #39

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/13/2020 9:45 AM

personally, personally, I've decided. No way! Not ever! I will not trust government with that information. And if you say I'm paranoid, that's on you, because it's your opinion, but I do remember well that statement that says just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you. And sooner or later, Government is out to get you.

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#54
In reply to #46

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/17/2020 12:33 AM

It's not being paranoid. I see it as you're using your life experiences to make your decision.

I'm not the biggest fan of our government either. My belief is that most of our lawmakers are in it for themselves. There's very, very few who put the country and their constituents first. There are some who exist, but it's very rare.

However, if tracking helps keep the economy open, then it's a good thing ... HOWEVER, I am very concerned that the data THEY collect will be used for the wrong reasons.

Still sitting on the fence.

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#51
In reply to #39

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/16/2020 11:06 AM

Interesting article, in re: that the date of might be misused, or that the concept might be misused for political purposes, or commercial purposes.

De Blasio says coronavirus contact tracers will not ask positive cases if they have attended BLM protests.

by Bryan Brammer · Jun 15th, 2020 1:15 pm

16

New York City's coronavirus contact tracers have been instructed not to ask those who test positive for COVID-19 if they have participated in any Black Lives Matter protests, a spokesperson for the mayor's office reported.

"No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest," said Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for de Blasio.

De Blasio, who announced his "test and trace" program in early May to hire 1,000 contact tracers, said he plans to reveal Monday how many residents have been questioned so far.

Tracers are tasked with asking positive cases to "recall ‘contacts' and individuals they may have exposed," Cohen detailed.

Tracers are also instructed to inquire about any close contacts of the patients — anyone they have been within six feet of for at least 10 minutes.

If a tested individual wants to disclose whether any of their close contacts took place during a protest, they have the freedom to provide additional information.

"If a person wants to proactively offer that information, there is an opportunity for them to do so," Cohen said.

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#52
In reply to #51

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/16/2020 10:21 PM

I believe contact tracing at this point is a complete waste of time and money. In the first few weeks of the pandemic, O.K. You have a chance at containment. That train has long sailed and the ship left the station long, long ago.

And if the survey takers and its sponsors aren't willing to ask germane questions, then the data is even more useless. Why bother at all?

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#57
In reply to #52

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/17/2020 1:40 AM

Shoot, you beat me to it!

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#58
In reply to #52

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/17/2020 11:56 AM

On (my ) point ! Exactly ! So why IS it being pushed NOW ? NO, NO, DON'T WATCH MY LEFT HAND ! Pay attention to the right one !

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#56
In reply to #51

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/17/2020 1:40 AM

This type of contact tracing isn't going to be very productive. How are people going to remember where they've been, who they've seen, the time, etc for the last 14 days?

Sounds like a waste of taxpayers money.

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#42

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/11/2020 4:52 PM

I'm getting ready to head out for a long weekend (to my condo, not a vacation), and I want to thank everyone here for posting such great information, advice, quoting our founding fathers and above all, speaking what you believe.

It's a guarantee that intelligent people will view situations in different ways - that's what makes us special. What I truly love about this site is that we can do this in a professional manner and even when there's a disagreement, we can agree to disagree.

Thank you!

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#60

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/30/2020 5:09 PM

I heard something very upsetting at the end of last week.

Our wonderful state has decided that education isn't that important. At least that's what their action is telling us.

Senate Bill 98 (SB98) was passed by the Senate yesterday and signed into law that afternoon by the governor. What is SB98? It's a lot of things tied into a single bill. Inside that huge bill is a law that limits the income a school can receive for the 20-21 school year. Here's how it works. Schools are "paid" based on the number of students in the classroom and home schooled. The state is projecting a huge budget problem $54B shortfall! So, to reduce payouts to schools, the Senate passed a bill which limits the income a school can get to 2019-20 levels. Normally, this isn't very bad, however with CV, some schools have done a terrible job and parents are upset. Those parents are moving their kids to a different school. The poorly run schools are seeing large drops in students - their income will drop because of this - makes a lot of sense and I have no issue with this. The Senate Bill hurts schools that did a good job with off site learning. Those schools received a good reputation and parents want to move their kids to a good school. The school needs extra resources, because of the larger number of students. Normally, the state will take money from the "bad" school and give that money to the "good" school. For the 20-21school year, the "bad" school gets their income cut, BUT the "good" school is capped at the 19-20 school year income.

What this is doing. The "good" schools are turning down new students, because they don't have the resources to pay for the added expense. In turn, the parents are stuck sending their kids to the "bad" schools.

Survival of the fittest! If a school does a better job, why shouldn't they be able to grow their school? If the state is taking money from the "bad" schools, then send those funds to the "good" school. Makes sense, right? Unless you don't care about children's education - or maybe a better way to put it is that shutting down the economy was more important.

I go back to the poor job our state has done, regarding CV. This just adds fuel to the fire!

I hope other states are trying to do the same!

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#61
In reply to #60

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

06/30/2020 6:10 PM

Hmmmm: All Interesting, but what does this have to do with COVID-19 and contact tracing?

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#63

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/01/2020 2:00 AM

With the increase in CV cases in the last week or so, do you think contact tracing via smart phone apps that talk to other smart phones within a certain distance.

An idea: Create a smart phone app that will "talk" to other phones in a 6 foot radius. The time and date are stored along with the person's name. Nobody can access the information, except a government agency that it tasked to do CV tracing. When someone tests positive, the doctors can make a reasonable guess to find out the date they think the person was exposed. From this date, all contacts on that person's smart phone will be quarantined. For those who are quarantined, their cell phones will send a list of < 6ft contacts during the time he has CV.

Will this work? I don't know. I can only see the list growing so big after 14 days. The list becomes useless, because there will be too many people on the list.

Maybe I'm seeing something that others here aren't. And comments?

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#64

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/03/2020 2:00 AM

Yesterday, I was watching Bloomberg in the morning, when I heard that a government agency officially stated that the protests did not have an impact on CV. There was a study done and somehow CV wasn't spread through the crowds.

I found that interesting. How could something so contagious not spread among people who were definitely not social distancing and they were in close proximity to each other for more than 10 minutes?

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#65
In reply to #64

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/03/2020 2:05 AM

Here's an article on the study. I guess it wasn't a government agency. And it hasn't been peer reviewed, so it could be inaccurately done. It is interesting to look at the results. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines-protests-did-not-cause-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/#425486937dac

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#66
In reply to #64

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/04/2020 4:30 AM

"... How could something so contagious not spread among people who were definitely not social distancing and they were in close proximity to each other for more than 10 minutes ..."

.

The article covers that and provides plausible explanation. The reasoning is that since the protests were outside (good air exchange), people were in motion (not stagnating) and facemasks were worn by large numbers, that the conditions for spread were suboptimal.

In addition it is noted that people not in protests changed behavior in staying inside more. The research found areas with protests showed greater distancing as a whole and lower transmission relative to otherwise similar but without protests.

Makes sense....if the protesters are on average covering their faces and protesting outside, while the non protesters react by secluding more, transmission need not spike.

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#67
In reply to #66

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/04/2020 5:42 AM

I don't know about that. Here's something that I just found https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/06/08/george-floyd-protests-masks-coronavirus-resurgence-column/3147745001/

It says that mask or no mask, the protests are going to cause a spike in CV.

Here's a video of protesters and thieves. There's a lot of people not wearing masks in this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQEOclZzEr4

How about this foul mouthed girl and the others here without masks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21THW8ad72U

We've been told that wearing a mask is not to protect us, but to protect others, in case we're a carrier. So, why would the media print this? https://kmox.radio.com/articles/news/page-protesters-who-didnt-wear-mask-should-self-quarantine

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#68
In reply to #67

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/05/2020 5:30 PM

You might be falling victim to the fallacy of anecdotal evidence.

Individual examples of behavior that is more risky (especially more outrageous behavior which is more likely to be recorded and shared mor frequently). to correlate sufficiently to be representative.

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#69
In reply to #68

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/07/2020 12:00 AM

Uhg. I didn't realize that got published....thought it was still in edit.

I mainly wanted to point out that 'news' media has a vested interest in showing you things that get a big reaction...a reaction big enough that you will share and later return for more.

So you are shown, not the average, but the most outrageous examples as anecdotal evidence.

What matters is what most people are doing. The outliers matter, but not that much.

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#71
In reply to #69

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/07/2020 12:35 AM

That is very true! I completely agree.

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#72
In reply to #69

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/07/2020 12:37 AM

Same old story. You have to ask what the agenda is. Then we can look for the tidbits of truth in the story.

Thanks for your input. It's greatly appreciated.

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#70
In reply to #68

Re: Contact Tracing Implications

07/07/2020 12:34 AM

I don't know if I'd call it anecdotal evidence, but more in the realm of media spin. Both sides are trying so hard to prove their point that they fight from the extreme. I wasn't at any of the rallies, so I can't tell what if people were wearing masks, if they were moving or staying in one place and if they were keeping a safe distance. My guess is that they weren't keeping a safe distance, but that's what I believe.

Years ago when the fires were in Simi Valley, the media made it seem like the end of the world. In reality, I don't know if any homes burned and if so, it was very few. The news sure blew things out of proportion.

Back to the protests, I discussed this with a friend today and he said that there's a good chance the recent spikes are due to the protests. He claims that the recent spikes are 4 weeks after the peak of the protests. He feels that the protesters were mostly younger folks and they have a stronger immune system. He said that they most likely brought it to friends/relatives on Father's Day and it incubated for 2 weeks and now we have an outbreak. Los Angeles has seen a big spike in the last week or so. The media is blaming it on opening too early. We've been in phase 2 for 8 weeks (I went for a hike the first week we opened up) in LA County. If we were going to spike, we should've seen it much earlier.

Here's what our media is printing. This is our major newspaper for Los Angeles. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-06/coronavirus-cases-surge-la-county-death-toll-tops-3500 They wrote that the surge is from Memorial Day. Here's the data and graphs: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/los-angeles-county/ As science minded people who've taken quite a few math classes, I think it's pretty obvious that we did not spike two weeks after Memorial Day. Though about three weeks after the protests, we got a very big spike. And the death rate is dropping too.

The data shows:

1. More CV positive tests in the last two weeks (spike)

2. More people being tested.

3. Higher percent of tested are positive.

4. Hospitalization numbers increasing.

5. Deaths decreasing.

I also noticed that the graph shows that hospitalizations and ICU are near the highs in May. The interesting thing is that many hospitals cut staff, because they had too many empty beds = not enough income. So people were laid off. The empty beds were due to people holding off on surgeries and procedures. Then I read this from a small newspaper - I don't know who they are, but it came up on a Google search: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/03/los-angeles-covid-19-surge-homeless-immigrants

So there you have it. Facts are tough to come by these days. I have no idea if the information in the articles referenced are accurate, but they're all I have to go by.

Any ideas/comments are highly appreciated.

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