Going from the Frying Pan into the Fire!

I'll start the thread. As most of you know, I'm an auto broker - I help my clients get cars. Our goal is to buy at invoice less any rebates or incentives. That's not an option in this market - in fact, I tell my clients that MSRP (window sticker price) plus tax and license is actually a good deal now. I've seen dealers charging as high as $20- $50K over MSRP (this is for hard to find, specialty cars). Though dealers here in the Los Angeles area are charging $10K over sticker for trucks!

Last fall (2021), I leased a new 2021 Toyota 4Runner. Answers to my question:

1. No, I settled for a beige interior and a base model, even though I wanted black an a Premium Package. Why? Because it was the only one my wholesaler had.

2. Pricing was about $1,500 above what I normally pay. And there were no rebates - ZERO. And the lease rate (money factor) was high.

3. Did I get a good deal. In today's market, I got a great deal - I'm in the business, so I always do. If this were regular times, the deal I got is fair. Better than what a walk in could get, but by no means a good deal.

It's no surprise that California has gone to hell in a hand basket, and it's no surprise that for the rich this is a problem for other people, because they can still afford to get what they want...I've driven the same car for the last 13 years and have no thought of selling it, because I keep it well maintained and I don't need all the new gizmo's that come on the new cars, I don't consider that progress....Progress is being able to get new replacement parts when needed at a reasonable cost...this is something the automobile industry doesn't seem to get, so their growth has stagnated and the new messiah is the EV that will save them all, or so they think...for the record, I do not...

I have a couple old "beaters" I pile miles on. A 2002 VW Beetle, 2006 Pilot and a 2004 BMW 330i. For my business, I need an ultra reliable car, so the 4Runner seemed to fit the bill.

When I pull up to a client's house and my car leaks oil on their driveway, it's not a good thing. So the Beetle, Pilot and 330i are not cars I can take to see a client. Unless I leave the car in the street, which I have done when I'm in a pinch. About two weeks ago, I met a client in a very nice town just south of me ($2M for a house is cheap in this area). I drove the old Pilot - I didn't pull up in her driveway - I just parked in the street. Funny thing, she treated me like I was one of her workers and not as an equal. All because of the car I drove. I could've taken one of the Alfa's and I would've been seen as an equal, but not a 2006 Pilot.

You're right about CA. Image is everything and people pre-judge based on the car you're driving. It helps with my business (people turn over cars so quickly here), but I come from a middle class, blue collar midwest family and my values are much different than what I see here. And no, it's not everyone who acts/thinks like this, but there are a lot who do. AND, many of the ones who live this lifestyle are living on the edge, financially. One small hiccup and they're in trouble.

The funny thing about living out here is that we pay a huge premium for the economic strength in exchange for fantastic weather. Yesterday, I went for a hike (yes, I recorded the Superbowl and watched it when I got home). It was in the low 80's, sunny and great visibility. I could see the water between Ranch Palos Verdes and Catalina Island! When I got back to the car, it was dark out, but still in the low 70's. Perfect weather.

I had my Miata in for servicing a couple of months ago, and a salesman wanted to buy it back for about what I paid for it 6 years ago. They only had one in stock.

I don't think that transportation is the main problem. I understand the chip shortage is a result of auto manufacturers when they shut down their plants, canceling chip orders, and the chip makers shifted to cell phones and PCs.

https://www.techrepublic.com/article/the-global-chip-shortage-what-caused-it-how-long-will-it-last/

If you search the web, you'll find articles on the Renaesis (sp) chip fab fire early last year. The chip fab makes a lot of chips for the auto industry. China raised their hand and offered to provide chips for us - suppose to see the first in May 2021 ... it never happened. Some people think it was to test us. I don't know. What I do know is that fire has send the industry in a tail spin.

I heard that new chip fabs were producing chips in Nov 2021, but the pent up demand has kept the auto inventory levels low. Maybe this is true, but I thought that the shortages would be alleviating three months later. It's still bad! And the recent factory closures in Ontario, Canada only make things worse.

The chip supply chain disarray from COVID complications affects multiple products, not just transportation. Discussions about returning chip fabrication back to the USA have popped up from time to time. If this happens it won't happen fast. I know this from personal experience.

Where I recently retired, there was in a basement room a small cleanroom for the fabrication of fairly large radiation detector arrays. (I think some of these detector chips are now out at L2. ) The volume of chips this lab could produce was low but the demand for these custom chips matches that low rate. This lab had been in this basement for decades and gradually improved over time while still keeping critical "obsolete" technology working. About six years ago some bureaucrats decided this lab needed to come out of the shadows and be ultimately moved to a new building. The staff running the cleanroom informed the powers that be that the production of new detector chips would then have to stop for three to five years after the obsolete equipment was moved. It would take that long for the new cleanroom to be clean enough to produce new chips. Then and only then could it be determined if the obsolete equipment survived the move. I retired before this move was attempted.

There is a clog at the ports, with it based emissions requirement s California put on the truckers… the trucks must meet the emissions standards…

I would say a large part is at the transportation level.

Pete will be right on it.

Yes, shipping through the ports is backed up for multiple reasons. That is why some have proposed fabricating chips here, again. I was pointing out that making a new chip foundry takes more time than many people think.

I heard that the truck drivers at the port are upset, because the shippers are using autonomous trucks (from the port to the transfer yard). The truckers are doing a "working strike" and the ports are getting clogged up. The truckers know that the autonomous trucks are taking their jobs, so the union has their drivers doing things nice and slow.

A friend of mine went to the Long Beach port last summer and confirmed seeing the autonomous trucks.

I had to buy a refrigerator for my condo - the 11 year old LG has a bad compressor. It's one of those linear compressors, which I heard isn't very well made. Still, 11 years seemed to be okay for a modern refrigerator. Okay, back to the story ... I tried to buy a similar replacement - Home Depot has won't have one until April. Lowes - ditto. Best Buy - same. I finally got one on the Samsung website. Delivery was suppose to be 2 days, but the delivery guy screwed up and it took a week - don't get me started on that one!

I was told the shortage (and higher prices) are due to computer chips! I heard this before, but now I've experienced it.

I hope this ends soon and we get back to normal.

Lasted 11 years… must have had a 10 year warranty.

That's what got me! The warranty was 10 years!

We bought it in May 2011, so it didn't actually make it to 11 years - I rounded up.

We had a water heater that did that…Glass Lined A.O.smith water heater…

I bought a 65” Samsung TV, the backlight on the model burned out… 3 months after the warranty… the Samsung trouble shooting stated it’s no longer under warranty but you can by a new one… I now have a 65” LG.

when I was taking night class in statistics. The instructor actually works for company’s that determines warranty lengths… damn near to the day before the life shale (product death date).

You got me wondering...

How do you dispose of a 65" tv??

Good question… it’s being in my storage for over 2 years…

Once a year our village has a electronic disposal for tv’s and computer and monitors… when they had it last time, I called and they said that was too big?… I’m waiting for the next time, and I’ll just take it in.

yes, I even have the original box it came in,… where some people hinted I should take it to Good Will. , but unlike the D.Q.’s (Drama Queens) here may claim or falsely infer, I’m not that type of guy,..

oh, btw,… I’m no longer a Samsung customer, I have (2) older Samsung sets,

And my LG, I’ve been very satisfied, my next set will be an LG,… knock on wood,

Good info to tuck away for future reference. Thanks.

I have 2 Samsung computer monitors and 2 Samsung monitor/tv combo's. All 2 to 5 or 6 years old. No problems yet, knock on wood.

I hope I don't regret writing the above paragraph.

The reason I got turned on to Samsung was I had a Samsung (Satelite) laptop had great service from…

I have a Samsung smart TVs that’s 10 years old… it only gets standard channels now, apps such as you tube are no longer updated so there isn’t no you tube,

and about 6 months ago, I can no longer connect to the internet, and the last software update was in 2015.

that’s the problem with smart tv’s it’s also has a (short) life cycle where they no longer update it. My 10 year old Samsung (bought in 2012) started falling off in 2016 when you tube no longer updated and was removed.

soon I expect the only channel I’ll get, will be the screen saver…

Well, the Samsung screen saver with the fish might be worth keeping!!

But apparently not all smart tv's get dumb. I have a 40" TCL/Roku tv that's at least 7 years old and still going strong. Lot's of active app's, a firestick plugged into it, and very good over the air service. Hulu Live is my main source for live tv.

The only problem I've had with it is that sometimes the back light won't come on and I have to enter a long code sequence on the remote control to recycle it. I'll replace it with another TCL should the need arise.

Now when I bought my Samsung, I bought it new where it was last years model they were closing out... The current years model supposable had higher definition... but with my eyesight,... I couldn't tell the difference. and it was cheaper.

When I bought the 65" that expired shortly after the warranty ended, that was the current model...

That I bought the LG, it was also the previous years model for the same reason as the first.

I'm hoping my LG is will last a while.

When the apps stopped being supported on my first Samsung, you tube, I had a message on the tv screen the come July 15th 2016???? they will no longer support a You Tube update.

And July 16th 2016, the You Tube app no longer appeared and wasn't available.

The updates were basically for security, and I believe it was stated that the updates came from You Tube, but I have a feeling its Samsung

And the reason was because the volume of users for that set/model dropped off?.. I think Samsung wanted to sell a new TV.

Doesn't Microsoft do this?

I recall hearing that Windows 10 was the last version of Windows. Now there's a version 11? How can we trust companies like this?

Three to four years ago, I bought a Sharp smart TV for the condo. Personally, I don't like it. We don't use Hulu, Roku, Disney +, HBO Max, Netflix, etc - we just use cable. So a smart TV is actually worse, since the remote doesn't have direct channel access - there are no numbers on it! We have another Sharp smart TV in the sewing room here, but I don't go in there, so I don't use it. Our other TV's are junky off brand. The bigger one is a Crown (I think Best Buy) and we have an Element plasma in the bedroom - I really like the picture quality of the plasma.

At the condo, we also have a Vizio LED in the bedroom - it's a bit older, but it's a nice tv. And we have a small 24" in the hall bedroom - I don't remember the brand.

Most of our friends have huge TV's. Though we do watch TV, I think our sets are fine and until it breaks, we're going to keep the old stuff around.

It's funny how we choose to spend money on some things, while other things it just doesn't matter.

I just looked at the monitor on my computer. It's an LG. I think I bought it two years ago. Still working good and has good quality. I have no idea what brand our other two monitors are.

For us, we've had much better luck with Samsung vs LG.

Let's see ... we currently have a Samsung printer, range and two refrigerators. We have only two LG microwaves and nothing else by them.

Other appliances are GE, Frigidaire, Maytag, Whirlpool, Amana, Bosch and Kitchen Aid. I like the Kitchen Aid appliances - seems to be good quality. The domestics aren't built like they were years ago!

I'm very bad at maintaining our water heaters - the anode rod needs to be changed every 5-7 years. Longer time if it has two anode rods.

In one house, the water heater was there when we bought it (fall of 2008). The next one - I changed the water heater in 2011 or so. The next one we changed in 2009, soon after we bought the house. The last house came without a water heater - we put a new one in 2012.

Oh yeah, our other house came with a tankless water heater - I'm thinking it should be good for quite a while. And the condo association changed the water heater not too long ago.

I have some anode rods - I just haven't been there to change them. I definitely need to!

Covid has become the whipping boy for every failure on just about every level.Some of it is justified,but a lot of it is just pure greed,looking for more $$.

There is no moral ethic code in business anymore,simply $$ and growth.

I have known a few very successful businesses that have prospered and done very well,while treating their workers fairly a the expense of more profit.

These are few and far between.

Wall Street Bankers made a fortune on Covid. Look at how those pandemic stocks rallied and are now down 80% or so. Why? Because they never should've been that high. I doubt the big guys are still holding shares!

Our friends to the north seem to understand the concepts regarding liberties a lot better than "we" do.

You have to realize that This country was in a state of hysteria for four (4) years… and now that they got what they wanted, their silence now most likely caused from they realized their own hate.p as well as buyers regret so to speak…

The motorcycle market has been impacted at least as much as the automobile market, if not more.

I traded my 2007 Honda cruiser in on a 2021 Can-Am Ryker 3 wheeler last year and thought I'd gotten a hell of a deal on the trade in. Turns out I probably could have gotten double what I thought my old Honda was worth had I sold it myself. Blue Book and NADA valuations are way out of whack.

Used bikes are only on the market for a day or two and new bikes are sold often before they arrive at the dealership.

Meanwhile I watch my 2014 Silverado pick-up with only 12k miles on it actually appreciate in value.

Meanwhile I'm looking at buying a pre-1975 vehicle that has good parts availability that I could use in case my computer based vehicles break down. Any ideas?

I didn't know about motorcycles, but pedal and e bicycles are in short supply too. I have a friend who has been waiting 9 months for his bike. He said he's ready to cancel his order.

I own a few pre-1975 cars and they are much easier to work on and there's no chance of a computer malfunction. There are a few issues. The biggest one is rubber seals bushings and gaskets. Window frame seals, door seals, trunk seals, etc. And gaskets in the motor, transmission, rear differential. Also, suspension bushings (both front and rear). Add to this plastic deteriorating; dash cracking, door panel cracking, center console cracking, switches breaking, reflectors and side markers cracking, rear view and side mirrors cracking, window frames cracking, etc.

For reliability, I do like having a new(er) car. The computers are much more robust than in the past. Seals, gaskets, plastics ... they're all new and everything is under warranty. I own cars built in the 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's and 20's (I just sold our 2017 Lexus CT200h - it was the only 10's car we own). The cars pre 2000 have either been rebuilt or have problems with deteriorating parts - most of them leak some fluid too. The 00's cars leak too, even the Toyota and Honda! And the 2022 truck is brand new, so no problems.

Well, I'm well experienced at working on other people's castoff automobiles. That's all I could afford as a teenager. I'm also a machinist so soem stuff could possibly be fabricated. And I can make all my own gaskets for pre-70'ish cars. Been there, done that.

What I worry about is availability of parts I can't fab or work around. But I once had a parts scrounging issue when I had a '60 Healey 3000. That was in the mid 70's and even then spare parts were tight.

Fun, fun, fun!

Lol, that’s all anyone could afford as a teenager…

I recall my dad help me when my car needed work, how did he help, he told me the local salvage yard should have that part… it was up to me to get it, and install it…

quiet an experience for a 16 yo that served me well.

Seems like today's teenagers get whatever their parents can afford.

And they miss out on a lot of good lessons learned at an early age.

My first car was a ragged, well-used, rusty '75 Rabbit. I learned a lot from that car. And learned my way around the salvage yards because new parts were out of my price range in my college days.

All my kids got junkers. I distinctly remember the oldest when she asked us what car we were going to buy her. "Excuse me? . . . ."

Heh, my dad said, sure, I could have a car, but the expenses were all mine. This was circa 1964/65.

My first was a 50's something Renault Dauphine that had been badly abused and cost me, I think, $50. Car parts stores in southeastern Virginia had no parts at all for it so I became intimately familiar with all the junkyards in about a 50 mile radius. Even as junkers those cars were scarce.

I feel sorry for kids nowadays who will not likely have that rite of passage.

Was the Dauphine the one with the crank starter?

Come to think of it, I believe it did.

Funny how the French car companies held on to crank starters for so long. I will say that some companies should've continued to keep them along with electric starters. Just in case the electric started didn't work. I can think of an Italian company or two who would benefit from this.

Learning to repair your car - and learning how to properly use tools, is a great lesson in life. I feel sorry for those who never got the chance.

I spent so much time at the pick a parts yards just west of Chicago! I once spend a whole day disassembling the entire exhaust system (cat back) on a 1976 Ford Thunderbird. Why didn't I just have a brand new one put on? I had all the time in the world and working at Wendy's gave me a whopping $3.35/hr. It took a long time to save up enough for a new exhaust!

When you can't find parts,you have to improvise and make do with what you can find.

We lived near a lumber yard,so plenty of material to work with.

High stress areas were reinforced with metal plates (cut from Crisco cans).

Here was my first vehicle.It was better than walking,but hard to get a date.

Believe it or not,the hardest part to find was the horn.
I eventually upgraded to a Cushman Scooter,,and it sat idle for a few years on the back 40.It is now just a pile of termite-eaten parts.Most of the good stuff is still serviceable.I think I may restore it.....

you must of had some... grounding problems...

Innovative! Fantastic!!!

The big Healey was definitely a cool car! I love the look of those old British Sports Cars!

My friend just bought a 1969 (I think it's a 1969) Austin Healey Sprite (small Healey). He loves the car and the small car feel. I think it's a little too primitive for me, but who am I to talk (I still have the Fiat 850)!

First hand information on new cars in Australia

My son wanted to trade in his Toyota Prado with 100,000Km on it for a new model. No worries said dealer if you want white then it be close to 18 months to get one but in any other colour then 8 months so he chose silver. Seems as if all the white ones are spoken for by the mining industry, who said coal is dead.

My daughter in law just took possession on a Ford Explorer Basecamp model in silver after a 4 month wait. In White then it would have been 12 months wait.

Now this is in Australia so the shortage is not only affecting our northern pond brothers.

I drive a 26 year old diesel Nissan Patrol, 240KKm, my wife drives a 22year old Toyota Corolla, 250KKm and our tour drive is a Ford XR6, a baby, only 11years old and only 56KKm on the clock, all get regularly serviced, mostly by me except the Ford. Would I buy a new car, not at the present prices and availability and all the extra yahoo features i would never use.

"Sales are down,but profits are up...Hmm...lets just keep it up as long as we can.

Covid is good for us.Less overhead,less labor,all good."(From a board meeting at XYZ Company)

GM has always made more money financing the cars than making them,and now they finance nearly anything.Cars are just a sideline,as is shown in their quality products.

Insofar as chip shortage,most of the computers in new cars do not provide any benefit in mileage or durability,they just make them harder to service without special tools and software,available only to the dealership.

I bought a 2000 Accord EX,right off the truck and did all of the servicing myself,including water pumps,timing belt,idlers,tensioner,etc.

I gave it to my grandson with 200k miles.The only time it went to the dealership was an airbag recall.

In 20 years,I replaced the timing belt,etc, idle air solenoid,all coil packs,and routine maintenance,oil changes,etc.

It still runs like new.

It was built in America by American workers,but with Japanese management and QC philosophy.Are you listening Detroit?

My GMC truck had 48K miles when I sold it last year. It went through a steering wheel (rubbery stuff peeled off) - repaired under warranty, covers for the power ports (two new ones under warranty and soon the new ones broke), sun visor sagged and luckily replaced under warranty, cracked dash - not repaired, one set of tires (the General OEM's were junk), one battery (not complaining), computer problem (fixed under warranty), window crank fixed under warranty (yes, manual windows), the vinyl seats were starting to crack, the ash tray would open unexpectedly, radiator leaked between the tank and cooling fins and we lost an alternator too!

I was very disappointed in that truck.

In contrast, the Tundra has 160K+ miles, nothing other than maintenance needed, seats (cloth) are still good condition, it's a V-8, but gets about the same fuel economy as the V6 GMC.

The next truck - that's a no brainer, another Toyota ... oops, I meant Ram!

Sorry, Autobroker. This is going to compound your search for automobiles. I expect this ship carried mostly new vehicles but fewer new vehicles mean fewer used vehicles enter the market, at least temporarily.

Yes, the ship that sunk was not a good thing for the industry. 4,000 cars is what I heard.

I also heard that many plants are closing, due to parts that come (used to) from the Ukraine. Add to this the recent Ontario Canada closing due to no delivery of parts, because the road was blocked.

I called one of my Toyota guys - he usually has 450-500 new cars in stock. He told me that he has ONE! Not one hundred! ONE new car!

And forget about Hybrids and EV's.

This weekend, I decided to sell the big truck. Why? Okay, here goes.

I received a notice from Chrysler saying that there's a recall - the truck is two stinking months old!!! The recall said it's a software update for the ABS system. I called the local dealer on Monday - no answer, but I left a message. No return call on Tuesday. On Wednesday, I decided to call again. I reached a service writer - when she found out that I didn't buy the truck from them, she pulled an attitude. I quickly corrected her (it doesn't matter where I buy my vehicles - a recall is a recall and needs to be completed at the dealership of my choice = convenience) and she didn't like it. She looked up the VIN and told me that the part is on backorder and won't be available until July 5th. I told her the notice said it was a software update only. She told me I wasn't reading the recall correctly and it needs a new ABS controller. She told me to bring my truck in and they'd verify that the VIN is correct. I told her that I read it to her correctly, but she insisted I bring the truck in. When I asked if it's safe to drive a vehicle with a recall, she said she doesn't know and I should call the 800 number on the recall letter.

I hung up with her and called the 800 number. The gal was very helpful and told me it will take less than an hour and it's only a software update. I started to tell her about the service writer, but instead I let her know about my past experiences with Chrysler products and with my current recall problem, I don't have confidence in the product (recall on a 2 month old truck and incompetent service writers). She apologized, then asked me which dealer I had called. She put me on hold and called the dealer. A few minutes later, she got back on the phone and said she straightened things out. She turned the call over to the service writer and left the call. As soon as the service writer knew that she was off the phone, she told me that Chrysler made a mistake and told the dealers to order the ABS controller. I ignored her and set up an appointment. She said everything is good and was ready to hang up. I asked her to confirm the appointment and guess what? She mistakenly set my appointment up for the wrong dealership - they own two Chrysler dealerships. She corrected it, verified the info and we hung up.

How can a company have such incompetent workers? I had the recall completed on Friday, then after giving it some thought, I decided to get rid of the truck. I have no confidence in Chrysler and their dealerships. And the sad thing is that I do really like the truck.

My Toyota guy has a 2022 4Runner TRD Sport coming in. I think I'm going to get it to replace the Ram truck.

Yeah, when I go to buy a car, I want to go to a big gravel parking lot inside a barbed wire fence with an office trailer and a metal building service bay. I sure as hell don't want to pay for polished stainless steel and glass clad behemoth of a building with elevator music, expresso bar, and manicure salon.

Never mind the treatment from the salespeople that leave you with an overwhelming desire to take a shower when you get home.

I prefer to buy used whenever I can because of my loathing of the dealerships.

I bought one new vehicle for personal, and I leased a vehicle for business. Never again will I buy new. When it looks I'll be needed a replacement vehicle in a year or two... I start looking at smaller used car lots, getting the feel on what's out there and the value as well as sales lot reputation...

So far it has been working out.

Here in So Cal, things are different. Those small car lots can't compete with the dealer groups. Longo Toyota had a 2,500 car month - they sold 2,500 new cars in one month! So, when we all go to the wholesale auction to buy cars, the big guys grab all the desirable inventory and if we small guys want to buy a car, we'll have to out bid them. Then there's Carvana, Vroom, Carmax and all those other internet used car sellers. They bid up stuff far too high, so the used car market is way overpriced now.

Right now, I'm telling my clients to buy new. Here's a good example. I just bought my 2022 Toyota 4Runner TRD Sport for $39,014 + tax and license - yes, this was a favor from my Toyota guy and he'd charge $2,000 more to my client, so we can say $41,014 to the public using my service. My wholesale auction lists the last three that sold - here's the list:

If dealers paid that much (the selling price doesn't include auction fees and transportation), they're going to need to mark it up from there, so they'll sell them used for $51K or more!

My client pays less for a new car than a used one - you can thank Carvana, Vroom, Carmax, etc for this!

Before getting into the auto business, I was a regular car buyer. However, I owned my own business and I understood the principles of business. So when I would go to the dealer to buy a car, I simply wanted answers to my questions and to be given a fair price ... and to be treated with some sort of respect. I would get so upset with those salesmen that I was inches away from inviting them outside so we could talk about their disrespect - man to man!

One of the reasons I got into the business is to help regular people buy cars. I had a strange goal - I wanted everyone to know about our service and if they understood what we offered, there would be no reason to go to a dealership. I would actually get mad when one of our clients went to a dealer vs buying thru me!

Twenty years later, I don't get so upset when people don't use my service. I've changed my attitude - if they want to waste their money, there's nothing I can do to stop them AND the couple to few thousand dollars I can save them truly doesn't make a difference in their lives.

Interesting take on the motorcycle industry.

One thing I know about motorcycles is that dealers make a lot of money on parts and labor - service. Same with auto dealers, but auto dealers also have stronger demand for their product. Also, old inventory can almost always be sold - I remember when Daewoo went out of business, yet somehow the dealers were able to off load the dead merchandise.