100% Electric Car

100% might be a bit optimistic. Most folks in industry I talk with expect 20%. And Hybrids will likely always be around because they fit a specific consumer need.

In 1932 Ford introduced the first mass produced V8. Do we still have inline 4s, 6s and V6 engines today?

In 1949 Oldsmobile introduced the first mass produced modern fully automatic transmission. Do we still have manual transmissions today?

In the 50s air conditioning was introduced by the American automobile industry. Do we still sell cars without air conditioning today?

Based on past performance, I don't think it is likely.

GA.

Is this where I start about solar, and wind power to run the vehicle?

100%??? It is to dream!

No, nothing remotely close to 100%. In ten years, I expect that at least 90% of all new cars purchased will be powered, in whole or in part, by ICEs. If, in ten years time, 10% of new cars sold are 100% electric then electric car advocates will have done very well. In the last 10-15 years, since the introduction of the GM EV1 and the Toyota RAV 4 EV, there has been essentially no significant growth in the electric car fleet. Ford Ranger pickups and GM S10 pickups are no longer sold in electric versions, and both the EV1 and RAV4 are no longer available. If you took snapshots of then and now, you would be convinced we are going away from, rather than toward, electric cars.

The Toyota RAV 4 EV and GM EV1 were the vehicles that would make America want to drive electric cars, we thought. Both had about the same range as the Nissan Leaf, and the GM EV1 offered better acceleration than the Leaf.

We don't have the infrastructure to use an electric car as a family's only car. Stations that can charge a 50kWh - 60kWh battery pack in a few minutes are not generally available, and are very expensive, requiring 480V 600A service per charging plug. Few Starbucks or convenience stores will install them until there is a large base of cars that can be quick-charged. In ten years, that is unlikely to have changed a great deal, because of the obvious chicken and egg problems. Many older cars will remain on the road, so perhaps 5% of the fleet will be electric (although I might have written the same 15 years ago -- and would have been completely wrong: far less than 1% of the current fleet is electric).

Maybe even 5% is too big a number. Who would want a pure electric if a plug-in hybrid costs less and is more versatile?

About 12 years ago the DC area EV club did an analysis showing that an EV, on a well-to-wheels basis, was somewhat more efficient that a typical ICE car. The equivalent MPG they came up with was 59 MPGe for the GM EV1. That is about the same figure as for the (original) Honda Insight, which was a little smaller and lighter (and much better than the typical small car). Current electric vehicles are less efficient that the EV1 (the Tesla being much less efficient, and the Leaf only somewhat less efficient) but the new MPGe numbers are all over the place -- with Nissan claiming over 300 MPGe at one point. (The problem is that there is no agreed upon standard for such calculations.) The point being that electric cars are efficienct, but not miraculously so, and generate as much remote CO2 as a highly efficient ICE small car.

The biggest single hurdle to overcome (to increase market share of electric cars) may be the fact that a a huge group of people like the ICE, even down to the way it sounds. Manufacturers spend millions on getting exhaust sounds "right"... not minimized as much as possible, but right. The new Mustang even pumps sound into the cabin from the engine compartment. There is tremendous inertia behind ICE powered cars in every sense: billions upon billions of installed manufacturing infrastructure, customer preference, customer ambivalence re the environment, the desire to be able to take a 400 mile trip at a moments notice, etc, etc.

Plug in hybrids, like the Volt, are the only hope for widespread acceptance of (mainly) electric vehicles in the next ten years. Having the advantages of an electric car for commuting without the crippling mileage limitation is hard to beat. A small engine, generator, and fuel tank are cheaper and lighter than a large battery bank.

It is interesting to consider sales of the Prius, the car most clearly seen as "green," and the car that shows that consumers will pay a small premium for a green car. If the market for green cars were strong, then the roads would be choked with Priuses, but in practice, Prius sales fall off as soon as gas prices go down. The Prius is a comfortable well-equipped car that asks the owner to make few sacrifices, other than paying a higher price than that of a Civic. Electric cars require greater sacrifices: less convenience, less utility, much higher price. If Prius can capture 5% of the market, perhaps electric cars could capture 1% or 2%?

In ten years, plug-in hybrids could capture perhaps 30% of the market, and the trend could be established to have most people commuting on electricity by 2030.

Welcome to the insanity. And thank you for a well written post about the real world.