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These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 8:56 AM

Branching off from "Is Random Really Random", one might expect that a look through a list that included apparently random numbers, say the street addresses in the phone book1,2, that the totals for each of the ten digits would be approximately equal. The expectation would be wrong because each digit position within a number starts with "1" but does not necessarily reach "9" or "0" or the numbers in between.

(1) The phone numbers are excluded because they are biased by the use of exchange numbers.

(2) Assuming that the numbers run continuously and do not re-start at each block, as they do in many American cities.

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#1

Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 10:35 AM

There are some very good medications now that make concerns over things like this quite a bit less of a priority in life.

Just saying.

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#2

Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 11:37 AM

As I contemplate the randomness of my answer, I can't help but wonder, why I have happy feet, but sad shoes.....

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#7
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 3:26 PM

Sometimes a man's shoe soles can reflect his inner soul...

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#9
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 4:07 PM

You'd be surprised what a little polish can do...

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#10
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 8:15 PM

Damn, that's a pretty skimpy advert for those days.

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#3

Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 12:57 PM

In 1936-7, the magazine Literary Digest went out of business over an election poll that turned out not to be truly random.

The question does matter in experimental design, statistics, and certain kinds of simulation.

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#4
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 1:29 PM

If the only example you can come up with is 76 years ago by some non-scientific poll conducted by a magazine, about an election, this hardly lends credence to your point...I don't want to point out the obvious, but a modern day scenario would be more appropriate....unless of course, you randomly selected this reply...

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#5
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 2:11 PM

That example is admittedly quite long ago, but it should not be disparaged. At the time, proper randomizing was not well known; and the incident was germinal in figuring out the problem.

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#6
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 2:25 PM

Yes, that is quite true...This is when the Gallup polls gained recognition, as they had not only properly predicted the outcome of the election, but also the erroneous results of the Literary Digest poll, all using a much smaller group of people...more accurate results fewer people, the rest is history....well done...

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#8

Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 3:41 PM

But they don't generate random phone numbers for addresses. In fact, if the US is anything like New Zealand they just have lists of available unassigned numbers (be they unused or disconnected numbers from former homes). I was given a choice of three unassigned numbers for my new home.

If you try to build on an incorrect assumption can you really blame the conclusion?

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#11
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 9:45 PM

Jack, Jack. You didn't read the post did you? I excluded phone numbers because they aren't random.

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#12
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Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

04/30/2012 11:30 PM

So.....you don't want me to agree with and back your original statement up then.

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#13

Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

05/01/2012 5:15 AM
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#14

Re: These Numbers Aren't Random Either

05/01/2012 6:07 AM

A lot of random numbers follow Benford's law, i.e., the digits are logarithmically distributed like on a slide rule (does anybody remember those?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

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