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Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 3:17 PM

0.117% of the greenhouse effect is due to atmospheric CO2 from human activity.


Only about 3.62% of the total greenhouse effect is caused by all CO2. Not 72.37% as reported because the number one cause is ignored.


The most active green house gas is Water Vapor.


The total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is around 0.28% (factoring in water vapor)


It is stated that .001% of water vapor is man made. But this does not include water droplets. So this excludes irrigation.


My contention is that irrigation is the major cause of global warming.


Normally water vapor is considered self regulating.

I disagree with this because of the systems dynamics.

My thoughts are: If we quit irrigating within one year the system should self regulate to nil man made effect when the seasonal rains come through and reset the biome to natural background water vapor levels;

This does not happen because of the vast amounts of water placed on our crops, lawns, and in pools, ponds, fountains, canals, etc.

World water consumption (not returned to river ways) was 2,100 cubic kilometers in 1999. I estimated that if it follows the trend it has become 2,500 cubic kilometers as of this year.

A portion of this becomes ground water and is not the issue. The water that evaporates or transpires is.


The paradigm shift in irrigation is very noticeable in Washington state in the last 50 years.

From Gram to Renton was mostly farms and called the banana belt. Now it is industry and houses. The high average relative humidity there made the man caused water vapors input to global warming very small.

Now the desert on the other side of the mountains is farms. the majority of original farms were dry-land crops that relied on seasonal rains for irrigation. The wheat crops still are.

But now the desert is green. Millions of irrigated acres that during the summer was bone dry are now getting inches of water on them every week.

Now if this was just Washington state the effect of the water vapor absorbing heat would be dispersed by the wind and just be a local effect. But it is not.

World wide the dry lands are blooming with crops.

The location is a critical factor.

If you add a cubic kilometer of water, turned to vapor, to the panhandle of Alaska where the rain fall is measured in feet the heat effect would be unmeasurable.

But that biome is not where the irrigation is going.

When the average rain is low enough and more importantly the summer humidity is naturally very low, the water stays vaporised and contributes to the greenhouse gasses effect.


I can only guesstimate the amount that gets vaporized over arid low humidity land. And while the weather moves this added water vapor around it is constantly replenished during the growing season.


If only 10% of the 2500 cubic kilometers of water was vaporized into the arid environment that is 250,000,000 metric tons of water vapor green house gas right where it would have the most effect keeping the deserts from radiating heat away in the night.

This alone would have a profound effect on world weather patterns.


This has puzzled me for some time. I just could not grasp the CO2 connection to global warming and found too many issues to find it fact.

I don't pretend to be a climate guru and welcome all relevant comments.

I put this out to the greater collective mind of CR4 for review to approve or shoot holes in as they see fit.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Brad


Water vapor numbers are from here.

World water usage here.

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#1

Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 3:27 PM

These threads usually get me kicked out for a period of time...............

But. The thing I don't understand is, why cling to global warming when things that are much more provable can be attributed to CO2?

The entire argument should be switched over to this. There's not a lot to disagree about.

http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/acidification/

Edit: Sorry. Already went OT, but if you look at the percentage of the earth that is covered in water, I seriously doubt that evaporation from irrigation is having much impact.

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#3
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 3:43 PM

No you are 100% right. Ocean acidification is a Major issue that can not be ignored. But I was taught that the best way to solve a problem was to ask the right question, not to look at things sideways unless it is to get more perspective.

The water vapor over oceans is not changing. The water vapor over the deserts are. When you double and even triple the amount of water in the air it has to have an effect.

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#5
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 4:00 PM

I have to agree with AH. Beer is good.

One thing that has been well proven on here, is that none of us knows if, or to what extent the "problem" exists.

In the US we are shutting down coal plants, but giving the greenlight to increased coal exports to China.

Once politicians become involved, we will never be able to understand the problem, much less solve it.

Have a beer.

Not to sound like a beer snob, but I really love this stuff. Some of the hoppiest stuff I've ever tasted.................and it's local.

http://beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/9792/19162

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#6
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 4:11 PM

The only thing eviler than money is the politician with a little bit of power rooting for it.

If you are ever in Prosser Washington (south central) Horse Heaven Hill's Dark Cherry Stout or Whitstran Brewing's Steamy Cream are both awesome.

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#7
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 4:28 PM

Remember - money is not evil - the love of money is.

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#8
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 4:36 PM

It was a play on the: money is the root of all evil to Politicians rooting for money.

Like a gun, it is a tool neither evil or noble. Intent on the other hand...

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#28
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/18/2012 12:20 AM

Actually kramarat, that ocean acidification is mostly caused by CO2 does not fit either.

"Before people started burning coal and oil, ocean pH had been relatively stable for the previous 20 million years."

That may be true but CO2 has not been. Every 100,000 years we have a warm period between Ice ages and CO2 follows the temperature, averaging about 800 years. CO2 has been very dynamic in the past and just not the recent past. Over the last 800,000 years it has changed with every warm period 30 - 100 ppm. Sometimes as low as half present day levels. If acidification is only CO2 driven it seems we are already past the tipping point.

It is my guess that some other factor, man made most likely is also involved.

also I noticed that when the next ice age hits CO2 continues to rise for better than a 1000 years before dropping.

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#30
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/18/2012 9:08 AM

I'll have to read up on it. I'll admit that I've done very little reading on ocean acidification. What I have read, seemed to make a pretty clear correlation between CO2 levels and acidification, but we all know that these reports can be slanted.

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#31
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/19/2012 1:55 AM

What! Government sponsored Scientist slant their reports?

Only if they want to get paid.

"Researchers pound the global-warming drum because they know there is politics and, therefore, money behind it. . . I've been critical of global warming and am persona non grata."

Dr. William Gray
(Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado and leading expert of hurricane prediction )
(in an interview for the Denver Rocky Mountain News, November 28, 1999)

"Nobody is interested in solutions if they don't think there's a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous (global warming) is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are..."

former Vice President Al Gore
(now, chairman and co-founder of Generation Investment Management--
a London-based business that sells carbon credits)
(in interview with Grist Magazine May 9, 2006, concerning his book, An Inconvenient Truth)

Greedy Sods!!!

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#2

Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 3:36 PM

We just had a long debate about this on CR4 and what we can all agree upon.

The debate is settled. We can all agree on Beer.

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#4
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Re: Global warming in my opinion is man made but not by CO2

11/17/2012 3:50 PM

I like Beer. Real beer anyway, don't much care for that watered down stuff.

If I am wrong I want someone to show me. No emotional convictions from the peanut gallery please (and no that is not you Anonymous)

An issue can not be fixed if we are fixing the wrong thing.

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#9

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 4:52 PM

Brad,

I believe it is safe to surmise that the anthropogenic contribution to global warming could be greatly reduced within a few short years, if all humanity were to immediately cease any diversion, sequestration or manipulation of water for irrigation, power generation, transportation, municipal, community and personal use.

I am not advocating this as a solution.

Ace

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#10
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 5:05 PM

I don't see that happening any time soon either.

Thanks for checking it out. Let me know when you are in Prosser and I will buy the beer! And maybe a rack of deer ribs on the barbi if we have time.

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#27
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 11:29 PM

For some good beer, check out the new Shrub Steppe Smokehouse and Brewery in Richland. Kyle and Kaye ("hopgoddess") Roberson were the source of my tagline. Also in the Tri-Cities you might run into Mikerho and another CR4 members or two. I used to live in Prosser until ~5 years ago.

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#29
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/18/2012 12:28 AM

Thanks, My other place is in Burbank, along with the most of my shop.

The Peace and quite living out on a Vineyard is hard to beat.

I will try them out. I thought I didn't like beer until I found out what I was thinking was beer was flavored water!-)

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#11

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 8:55 PM

Opinion: global warming is not man made, only man noticed. Most of the US landform is the result of either ice movement or ice melt. The only evidence of ice sheets being post last glacier, all previous being scraped or washed away. The last ice sheet began rapid retreat 15000y ago, but you knew that. The earth is still recovering. Eg: rebound earthquakes and rising temps. I do not think that watering the lawn 15000y ago was the cause of the big melt nor will anything that mankind does or does not do seriously change things.

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#13
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 9:37 PM

Fair enough.

So my question then is when 95% of the green house effect is water vapor, what is the total input to the environment when water vapor @ 27C Cp has a specific heat of 3984.6 J/kg K when applied to 250,000,000 tonnes of water vapor or more is added to the dry and hot places of the earth?

I grew up in the high mountain deserts of Oregon, over 5,000 feet where it can be over 100 during the day and have frost on the ground come morning. Radiant cooling was extreme there. I do not see that any more.

I now live 700 feet above sea level in the desert surrounded by grapes. Summer nights are pleasant. Not when I visited as a kid. The high temps seem lower and the low temps seem warmer. I may have to do some research to document this.

I agree that there is climate change and we are still not as warm as the middle ages.

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#12

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 8:59 PM

I've got an idea.

Let's outlaw the use of water.

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#14
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 9:42 PM

I guess that is part of my point, I pity the fool who tries.

If our warming is not something we can change then how can we make lemon aide instead of arguing lemons?

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#15
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 9:53 PM

These discussions are pointless.

The earth has been cycling between hot and cold since it was formed. It will be doing so long after we humans are all dead.

You would do well to investigate how air/water/soil/garbage pollution affects the health and well being of the human race, and not bicker over the politics of why the globe is warming/cooling. How many billion tons of plastic are floating in the world's oceans????

Man MAY be adding to the process of warming by releasing more pollutants into the atmosphere, but, pollution will kill you long before the planet gets too hot to live on.

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#16
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 10:15 PM

And not very long after we are gone the pollution will be too.

I am just trying to understand the dynamics of the greenhouse system.

I already understand the dynamics of the pollution system. Pee in a pool and don't clean it up. Our pool is big but we don't clean up.

Thanks for your input.

Brad

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#17
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 10:19 PM

Then you must surly know that the discussion is pointless.

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#18
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 10:33 PM

lyn. Surely you must know, that no conversation is pointless as long as you are taking part in it.

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#19
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 10:43 PM

<unsubscribes>

I'll see you over at taxation.

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#20
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 10:54 PM

Oh man................

Alright. If I get out of hand, not only is it your fault, but I will tell everyone that you are my biological father.

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#22
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 11:02 PM

When can I move in, son?

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#26
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 11:27 PM

If you've got first and last month's rent......................tomorrow. Don't forget the security deposit. I heard you like to drink.

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#21
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 11:00 PM

Have fun. I'm not going there. Redfred is in, "You didn't build that", mode.

Thanks anyway.

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#23

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 11:03 PM

I should have titled this: Global Warming in My Opinion is in part Man Made, But Not By CO2. Oh well.

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#24
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 11:17 PM

LynDoor Industries has just introduced a new, (state of the art), CR4 thread building kit.

It's only $19.99...........................BUT WAIT!!!! If you order before midnight tonight, you will get, not one..............................but TWO thread builder kits.

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The CR4 thread builder kit is not for the weak. Please be prepared for men to want to be like you, and women to want to be with you.

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#25
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/17/2012 11:23 PM

Global warming,I believe,is natural, man only contributes/accelerates it. If you go back in history/evolution you will notice drastic changes like change in sea level,inter-continental drift,ice age,solar flares,earthquakes,volcanoes etc etc have taken place before man was borne.

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#32

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/21/2012 12:31 AM

Here is something I ran into looking for the MADIS weather station close by that my weather app quit using. I read the related article that is up for peer review.

Makes me wonder why the distraction.

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#33

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/21/2012 8:17 AM

So is there a warming? I better get my beer in the fridge then, want to have a cool one right after I am done here!

Points to think about:

- How much water is evaporated over the Oceans and Landmass with out man interference? - Sorry its beer o clock and I don't want to look this up.

- I use a swamp cooler when it gets hot! Seems to me that irrigation would have at first a tremendous cooling effect. Will this be offset by a few clouds hanging out and about?

- Did you think about airplanes and what effect they have? Apparently bringing moisture into the higher atmosphere has a much higher effect - oh forgive me - forgot what it was...

- A green desert will have a cooling effect - should be clear!

- Stopping irrigation will mean lots of problems with food! But not only. I don't want to think about the effect it might have on barley. Where is the next beer coming from??? (bye the way - yes we could take beer for food!)

- Clouds do also block sun light from getting to the ground which is considered a cooling effect. How do we factor this in?

I fully agree that Water Vapour is the most potent green house gas.This has been discussed thoroughly here and everywhere and I am not going to comment on this. I congratulate you for your understanding which is not given to all of us yet. But instead for you to try to make this the cause you should try to honestly understand if there is something (warming) in the first place. It is my opinion that there is no ongoing warming trend so I would not even go out to find a source! Lets call it the up and down of Earths climate. The one that always was there!

Don't go down the path to starve millions of people for the sake of a few degrees of sunshine or cloudy sky!

I think you are on the right track, but your irrigation problem is not a problem (at least not for "warming")

Good luck in your further studies!

BEERTIME!

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#36
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/24/2012 11:34 PM

The problem is not the heat the water gives off locally as it condenses or the heat it absorbs locally as it evaporates. Those are net zero heat added to the system.

A green desert does not have less heat, it has more. It raises the humidity. No clouds are formed to reflect the heat. The suns input it the same, what does not happen is the heat is not radiated back out into space at night as much because the water vapor has increased and holds more heat from exiting the system.

The heat that was not reflected back into space is now increased the total system heat.

Part of the added heat is conveyed by the winds to areas of higher humidity/cooler temperatures to areas where it can condense back to water and latent heat of vaporization is released. This is not usually the desert where the hot air can hold significantly more water. 4% at 30C @ sea level.

As for starving millions, it already happens, due to politics, while we chase our collective tail arguing about CO2. The increase temperature is happening and will happen regardless what we do because of the same.

On a positive note, what we learn from how we influence the system might be of use to hold off the next ice age that geologically is just around the corner.

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#37
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/26/2012 4:30 AM

I think it has a big impact where these processes are. Water that evaporates takes the heat from where we most of the time measure temperature a little bit higher into the atmosphere. There is condenses and voila you have a heat pump!

I know about the effect of clouds and how they keep nights warm while they are there, but also how they prevent sunlight to get to the surface and keep a day relatively cool. I still believe you are riding the wrong horse.

Tell me. If nobody can predict clouds in a years time. How do we expect to make a statement about a warming or cooling trend?

Lets collectively wait for the Ice Age.

Did you have a beer over it?

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#38
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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/27/2012 11:11 PM

Of course I had a beer and a really good Blue Fame Whiskey soon to be released.

I can not speak for all deserts but this one rarely has clouds to reflect back during the summer. I can tell you it will be 95% sun shine all summer. We do have lots of contrails.

Predict a year a year? 3-4 orders of magnitude more data and they are no better at forecasting than the 70's. Farmers almanac is still more accurate at the year timeline.

I'm not the math wiz I used to be in my youth.

But not radiating, in my estimate, 627,600,000,000,000 KJ of energy into the desert sky and moving it to a colder area should have some impact.

Thanks

Brad

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#34

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/22/2012 7:33 AM

Yes I think this time you are right in putting the man made effect as larger than CO2.

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#35

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/23/2012 2:33 AM

Totally agree!Man always like to shirk his responsibility,but they forget that it is him who have produced a large amount of CO2...

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#39

Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

11/29/2012 11:49 PM

Found this on CO2 from JPL

The yearly plant respiration of CO2 of the world.

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Re: Global Warming in My Opinion is Man Made, But Not By CO2

12/01/2012 2:32 AM

Found this on CO2 from JPL

The yearly plant respiration of CO2 of the world.

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