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The Future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 3:11 PM

The future of the Automobile

The automobile has been around for over a century and it has always been known that if a car goes fast, it will burn more fuel. This is an irrefutable fact. The faster and more aggressively you drive the more fuel you will use and conversely, the slower and less aggressively you drive, the less fuel you will use. What part of that reasoning do you not understand? Sure; over the years there have been improvements in fuel economy and performance, but there comes a point in the economy vs. performance curve where the two lines intersect. There is only so much energy you can squeeze from a gallon of gasoline or diesel. After that, there cannot be any further meaningful improvement. Aerodynamics and weight savings can improve both performance and economy, but that comes with a high cost penalty. Automobile manufacturers certainly know this right from the beginning. They will cater to what the public wants, knowing that there are only two directions to follow. In the past few years, the public has been clamoring for more efficient vehicles due to the high cost of oil. After it has reached a point where the public says, enough is enough, the car companies "introduce" fuel efficient vehicles. To the misinformed, it appears to them like Detroit (or Dearborn) has pulled a rabbit out of the hat. The truth is, the car companies have already solved the problems of fuel economy and performance many years ago. When they want an economical car to suit public demand, they have a bag of tricks to call on. Some of these tricks are larger tires, air fuel ratio changes, higher final gear ratios, even larger fuel tanks. All of these tricks will result in a car getting better fuel economy. On the other hand, when they want to emphasize performance, where economy is secondary, bigger engines and more aggressive computer chips are brought out. All of these technologies exist and it is just a matter of combining them in a final form to suit a particular need. You might say today's automobile is modular. Combine various components and you have a car that varies all the way from very high fuel economy to very high performance, all on the pretty much basic platform.

In an effort to make vehicles more fuel efficient, hybrids and electric vehicles are now on the market. Overall, after taking into account the high cost of batteries and their inevitable replacement, the overall cost of driving may actually go up instead of down. As far as performance is concerned, they are not designed for performance, because as we all know, performance comes about at the sacrifice of fuel efficiency. Hybrids and electrics also pay a weight penalty.

It then appears the automobile as we know it has reached a plateau in its design. Very few improvements in either efficiency or performance will come about that I can see, but what do I know? I'm just smarter than the average bear. Maybe the age of "the Jetsons" is still in the making.

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#1

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 3:23 PM

'.... When they want an economical car to suit public demand, they have a bag of tricks to call on. Some of these tricks are larger tires, air fuel ratio changes, higher final gear ratios, even larger fuel tanks....."

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How do large tires and larger fuel tanks equate to 'more economical'?

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I don't think performance and efficiency are mutually exclusive or necessarily even at odds. The advancements made in automobiles in the last 40 years support this idea.

.

Consider that the 0-60 time of 6.9 seconds for the 2005 Honda Accord Hybrid would put it in near super-car status in the 70's.

.

Getting more out of a gallon of gas is something that can benefit performance and efficiency.

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#4
In reply to #1

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:06 PM

Not sure about the fuel tank thing but changing tire size and rear end ratios to get the normal operating speeds to match the engines peak torque/mechanical efficiency band can do a world of wonders on fuel mileage numbers.

What I learned years ago from the old school auto techs and gear heads and had seen demonstrated on a engine dyno once was that the peak torque RPM for an engine is also at or very near the peak efficiency RPM and the emissions levels numbers can be even further down from there.

The unfortunate downside to that though is the peak torque and peak efficiency points most often can be very far below the peak HP power point but still above the emissions minimal point which with some engine designs can be as little as 1/4 - 1/3 of the RPM's of the peak HP point meaning that at an engines lowest emissions point it may only have at best less than 1/4 to 1/3 of its peak HP available which may not be enough to properly power the vehicle around but still be well below the peak fuel efficiency point.

Now how that can relate directly to fuel mileage numbers is that its possible to have the engine so mis matched between its lowest emissions RPM point and peak torque/efficiency RPM that its entirely possible to have a vehicle that up to a certain speed gets better MPG numbers the faster it goes, which can be surprisingly well above the average speed that the vehicle normally is operating at but yet still be so far below the peak HP RPM point the vehicle seems to have no limit to how fast it will go!

This is how we get those odd vehicles, most often full sized sedans and the like, that can have constantly better MPG numbers going 70 - 80+ MPH than they do going 55 - 65 MPH despite more mechanical energy is being put forth plus having scary fast top end speeds (albeit with vicious fuel consumption rates at WOT).

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#7
In reply to #4

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:18 PM

When I speak of performance, I don't mean just high speed, but also high acceleration, ie: spirited driving.

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#26
In reply to #7

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 10:37 AM

If you want rapid acceleration from a dead stop, an electric motor-driven vehicle is the way to go. Nothing has better torque at zero speed than a motor. Present day hybrids have controls to reduce this effect, but they could be designed for drag racing.

Of course, your batteries would be depleted by the time you get to the finish line!

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#77
In reply to #26

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 1:30 PM

Jesse James' Monster Garage did this with, of all things, an old ice cream truck. He and his crew built a decent strip vehicle (funny car?) with potential in about a week.

Could you imagine the neck snapping power of a full-scale R/C car?

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#79
In reply to #77

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 3:49 PM

One huge realistic problem though. Scale.

Scale the power to weight ratios of a R/C car to those of a vehicle a human could ride in and you will see the problem! POWER.

Pretty difficult to stick a 2000+ HP electric motor plus controllers and battery banks in a Prius!

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#5
In reply to #1

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:11 PM

All of that comes at a price. I'm discussing the typical use of a vehicle for the typical driver. Larger tires means fewer revolutions of the engine and that equates to better fuel usage. A larger fuel tank means you can go further on a fillup. That is more of a marketing trick that gets the public to think "more miles per fillup means better fuel economy".Making the fuel /air mixture leaner uses less fuel and less performance. Gear ratios lower the engine rpm by increasing the drive wheels rpm. That reduces fuel consumption and also reduces performance. When they say you can't have your cake and eat it too, that applies to automobiles on the whole, unless you will settle for only a few crumbs.

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#8
In reply to #5

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:44 PM

Taller tires (there are many ways for a tire to be larger) can allow lower engine RPM, but also present typically a larger contact patch, and a larger frontal area adding to wind resistance.

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Larger tires are likely to also be heavier, and since the outer portion touches the road, it accelerated regularly from a full stop to twice the speed of the remainder of the vehicle...then back to a full stop, again and again and again.

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If you need a tire change that will improve efficiency (at the cost of performance by some measures: braking, cornering, etc) narrower and higher pressure will typically fit the bill.

.

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A larger tank is likely to decrease fuel economy since carrying more fuel means carrying more weight. More weight to accelerate and more tire deformation increasing rolling resistance.

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Burning lean,or other refinements that result in more efficient combustion can be used to increase performance as well as increase fuel economy. The performance numbers of today's efficient sedans (even with the severely restrictive emissions that harm both efficiency and performance) rivaling the supercars of the 70s, is strong evidence of this.

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I disagree that taller gears necessarily improve fuel economy. Optimal gearing can provide maximum efficiency. Ratios above or below optimal will not perform as well. So there are situations in which lower gearing will result in better fuel economy.

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#22
In reply to #8

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 7:10 AM

If all you want is efficiency, try very thin solid tires.

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#56
In reply to #8

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 12:35 PM

"Larger tires are likely to also be heavier, and since the outer portion touches the road, it accelerated regularly from a full stop to twice the speed of the remainder of the vehicle...then back to a full stop, again and again and again."

The type of radical acceleration curves you describe are applicable to pistons but not tires. I understand the concept of the contact patch "stopping and accelerating to twice the forward velocity of the car." It is just not an accurate account of what happens from the tire's perspective. Think angular momentum.

I think something worth noting might be the deformation of the contact patch and the concept of "unsprung weight" having a significant affect on performance / economy.

-A-

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#60
In reply to #56

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 7:37 PM

'... Think angular momentum.....'

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Perfect. Angular momentum: without outside torque acting on a system, there can be no change in angular momentum, correct?

.

Yet even if done in a long vacuum chamber (to make air resistance negligible), a rolling tire will come to a stop. The motion, due to the weight of the tire creating a contact area, is not circular or even elliptical around the center of the tire.

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With respect to the ground, every particle on the outer portion of the tire experiences a change in velocity. The range of the change in the magnitude of velocity is pretty close to twice the magnitude of the velocity of the center of the wheel/tire with respect to the ground.

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While the motion of any particle on the edge of the tire looks similar to a cycloid that would be formed by a rigid wheel rolling on a rigid surface, it in fact differs, remaining at the point of contact of a period and having entry and exit paths that are steeper.

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To the degree that the tire behaves elastically, much of the energy needed to distort the tire is returned as the tire returns to the shape it has for most of the revolution.

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Just to be clear here, I am not talking about the net acceleration of the tire as a whole.

In any case, even if the tire were perfectly rigid, points on the outer edge would still be experiencing a change in velocity with respect to time. So acceleration shouldn't be at issue.

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It also shouldn't be an issue that some of the what is needed to accelerate any particular particle on the edge of the tire is in large part offset by mass accelerating on the other side of the axis of rotation (with respect to the tire), or by any rebound of the tire. The fact remains that some will not be offset. As it takes more energy to accelerate a larger mass from the resting position while in the contact patch, back to nearly circular motion (with respect to the tire) the mass of the tire plays a role.

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In the end there are several more reasons why larger tires might be a detriment to efficiency.

-Since all driving requires acceleration and since larger tires are almost certainly going to increase the moment of inertia of the wheels, it will require more fuel to increase speed at the same rate, or alternately if the larger tire vehicle cannot accelerate as quickly, to compare trips of the same average speed, the vehicle with larger tires will need to travel at a higher rate of speed to compensate, incurring additional wind resistance.

-Larger tires provide additional surface area and frontal area and thereby increase wind resistance.

-Larger tires will probably have a larger contact patch (once again larger tires are likely to be more massive, so all other things being equal....larger patch). larger contact patch is likely to mean additional rolling resistance.

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Some of those are pretty minor effects, and that last one it on pretty weak ground. But my original comment was a disagreement with the idea that larger tires generally improve efficiency. I'm not claiming that smaller tires necessarily improve efficiency, just stating reasons why larger tires are not guaranteed to. The additional mass off a larger tire and the energy needed to develop the force necessary to accelerate that additional mass are bound to factor into the efficiency equation.

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#63
In reply to #60

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/20/2013 2:32 PM

Try thinking of a system where there are two wheels of equal size, horizontally oriented, and held together so the treads touched in such a way as to allow both tires to turn against one another in a counter rotating fashion. Apply a force between them equal to the weight of 1/4 car that causes the centerlines of each wheel to move toward the other.

We will embed accelerometers all along the tread of one of the tires so as to measure the forces in the tire. We will then apply a motive torque to the sensor mounted wheel sufficient to overcome the friction and also to overcome the tires tendency to flex under the force applied.

As the wheels start to counter rotate, the accelerometers begin to show an outward force directed away from the center of the point of rotation, periodically interrupted by the bump of the contact patch as each accelerometer comes around to a point where it's location on the tire interfaces with the other tire.

If held at a constant number of revolutions per minute, each accelerometer would show a constant acceleration away from the center interrupted by the bump at the contact patch.

There is no point in this model where the accelerometers embedded in the surface of the tire will allow their calculated velocity to vary from zero to twice the tangential speed of the surface of the tire. There is no place on this tire that you could place a sensor to measure acceleration or velocity as following this crazy pattern.

Now, to say that we are going to consider the forces on the surface of one tire relative to a position on the surface of the other tire, or relative to the centerline of the other tire. . . this consideration will not yield usable data.

Lastly, if we expand the diameter of the second tire to that of the earth, little changes for the tire with the embedded accelerometers. It is still the same rotating system. Aside from the change in the shape of the bump at the interface, the accelerometers will still show (nearly) constant outward force with a bump centered every 2π.

I hope this helps.

-A-

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#68
In reply to #63

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 1:23 AM

'...As the wheels start to counter rotate, the accelerometers begin to show an outward force directed away from the center of the point of rotation, periodically interrupted by the bump of the contact patch as each accelerometer comes around to a point where it's location on the tire interfaces with the other tire.....'

No. This is seriously flawed.

look at the graph below of a cycloid, the path a particle on the outer edge of a rigid wheel rolling over a rigid surface would take:

Hopefully it is pretty clear that at the point of contact, the velocity changes direction abruptly. What may not be clear right away is that the speed is not a constant over the curve.

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So let's look at it with the representation of the tire and center of the wheel super imposed at various points along the rolling path:

Compare the distance between the red dots and the distance between the black dots of adjacent points along the rolling path:

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-Between the first and second snapshot, the distance between the black dots is close to the same as the distance between the red dots.

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-Between the second and third snapshot, the distance between the black dots is the same as it was between the black dots of the first and second snapshots, but the distance between the red dots is much longer than the the distance between the black dots, or the distance between the red dots of the previous frame.

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Look for a moment at your statement above, and then compare the movement of the red dot from framed 1 to 2 with the movement of the red dot from frames 2 to 3. The motion was up and to the right from 1 to 2. The motion from 2 to 3 is down and to the right. It should be clear that if motion changed from up to down, that the force the accelerometer would be experiencing would not be 'away from the center' as you suggested. In fact, I don't think there is a net force away from the center anywhere in the rotation.

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Your statement is a common misunderstanding, believing that a fictitious force is more than a convenience for explaining motion from the perspective of a non inertial frame. When you are riding in a car and the driver turns sharply to the left, although you may feel like there is a force pushing you to the right, there is no such force. The force acting on your is to the left (because that is the way the car turned). What you are mistaking as a force to the right is just your body trying to continue down the path it was headed.

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Luckily accelerometers don't fall for that.

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Between the third and forth snapshot: The red dot travels very little distance over that period, much less than the previous period, and less than blacks steady pace.

.

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Just to tie it all together, check out the following animation. Notice how much faster the red dot travels at the top of the curve compared to when it contacts the road. Also notice that the acceleration (and therefore the net force) is definitely not pointed away from the center. It is generally has a component pointed toward the center plus a tangential component that varies from forward to backward depending where along the curve it is happening.

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So like I said. Not in motion momentarily at the point of contact. Twice the speed of the black dot when at the top of the curve. With acceleration that cannot be correctly described as 'constant acceleration away'.

.

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#69
In reply to #68

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 3:36 AM

Now I thought an accelerometer on the perimeter of a wheel would measure acceleration relative to its hub. Why would it care about where the tangent road surface was? I mean, its not like it is attached to the road in any way.... or even needs to be come to think of it. (I am imagining a wheel rolling down a runway, then lifting off but still spinning)

Have you installed an accelerometer on a wheel and found it to vary from high to zero?

Or am I missing something?

Oh never mind...I get it. Its that acceleration thing. Which if the wheel is rotating at the same speed the acceleration will of course be zero. Always. Centripetal force, will of course be constant.

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#72
In reply to #69

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 11:22 AM

'....Now I thought an accelerometer on the perimeter of a wheel would measure acceleration relative to its hub.....'

Why relative specifically (and seemingly exclusively if I understand you) to the hub?

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What makes the hub special? Do we measure the acceleration of the hub compared to the rim? Or would we measure the acceleration of the tip of the wiper blade (when utilized driving in a rainstorm) relative to the first pivot?....or maybe also the hub?

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If you do decide to measure it from the hub (and I'm not saying you can't, just that it isn't exclusive), do you mean from the rotating frame of reference or the frame of reference that doesn't rotate with respect to the ground? In either case, if the car isn't traveling steady state in a straight line, doesn't your perspective become non-inertial?

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Aside from limits imposed by picking your frame of reference such that restrictions need to be made on the vehicle to keep the frame of reference from being non-inertial, what is this urge to categorize some frames of reference as 'wrong'? Shouldn't we be able to transform between inertial frames of reference?

.

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What acceleration is the accelerometer going to measure? Well it will read from the frame of reference in which it was zeroed. Did you attach it and zero it while in the frame of reference of the rolling hub? Or stationary to the ground?

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#73
In reply to #72

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 11:22 AM

You guys are wearing me down.

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#75
In reply to #73

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 11:58 AM

Mr. Compromise,

I want to be completely clear on your assertion.

If we mounted the following piece of equipment on the back of a large truck and drove it in a straight line at the same constant speed as the outer hub rotates, thus regarding the "riders" as accelerometers; the riders on the receding side would hang straight down at at a point orthogonal to the driven direction, and on the opposite side the swing angle would be dramatically larger than either the leading or trailing edge?

My confusion arises from the fact that the above is what I think you are trying to say. If this is in fact not the case, we have nothing to disagree on.

Have a wonderful day!

-A-

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#80
In reply to #75

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 7:27 PM

That is not what I said.

.

I also don't fully understand what you are trying to say. Specifically:

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'...riders on the receding side would hang straight down at at a point orthogonal to the driven direction, and on the opposite side the swing angle would be dramatically larger than either the leading or trailing edge...'

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is very unclear. When you wrote 'opposite side', you meant opposite of the 'receding side', and so were referring to the side of the 'leading edge', right?

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But if that is the case, how can the 'swing angle' 'be dramatically larger than either the leading or trailing edge'???? Isn't the 'trailing edge' on the 'receding side'???

.

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You example has important differences with the tire case.

The riders are not taking turns supporting the hub by interacting with the ground, so the motion, if fast enough, is likely to be much closer to circular with respect to the truck. Also, if rotating fast enough and at a constant speed, the entire set of swings could be reasonably modeled as a rigid body.

.

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I hope that answers your questions. I also hope you will answer a question related to the example you created:

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When the riders are swinging around a horizontal axis at a constant speed sufficient for the chains to be under tension the entire time, are you still standing by the claim from the comment before this last one? (or have you since compromised that view, and just failed to mention the shift?)

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Just so there is no confusion, here is what you wrote:

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'... the accelerometers begin to show an outward force directed away from the center of the point of rotation, ..... ...If held at a constant number of revolutions per minute, each accelerometer would show a constant acceleration away from the center...'

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Because is certainly seems read as if:

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1. You don't think the accelerometer will note the variation around the curve, suggesting you are either willfully ignoring or ignorant of the effects of gravity.

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2. You believe that there is a force pointing in the direction AWAY from the axis of rotation. I have no idea how it is that you think a force pointing AWAY from the axis of rotation is being developed (or even transmitted up a chain... much like pushing on a rope, right?) and how you can believe a force AWAY from the axis of rotation might allow the riders to remain a constant distance away from the axis of rotation in spite of their momentum.

.

I want to be completely clear about your assertions.

thanks.

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#83
In reply to #80

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 10:01 AM

Up, Down, Left, and Right are directions relative to the page as it should appear on the screen in front of you.

All areas outside of the system will be referred to as "the ground" and shall be considered to have a speed and acceleration of zero.

Position A corresponds to the center of the hub. The rotation of A shall be clock wise, 5 MPH as measured at any tangential point on the hub in the plane indicated.

Position B corresponds to the position of Rider B at this sample point in time. Rider B direction of travel, relative to Position A, is Up.

Position C corr . . . you know what? This is too damned much trouble. D is the only point that could be considered to recede. Everyone else has given up on trying to explain basic principles to you and now, so have I. You seem to think others are having a hard time understanding the concept of a cycloid. Most of us figured this out in Trig. . . in High School.

"You don't think the accelerometer will note the variation around the curve, suggesting you are either willfully ignoring or ignorant of the effects of gravity."

I'm done.

Cars of the future will be cool because they will be designed by people who grew up loving cars.

-A-

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#88
In reply to #83

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 12:17 PM

I see my, mistake. You apparently live in a place where the 'ground' is above you, below you, to the right and to the left.

.

I suspect things DO behave very differently in the center of whatever planet you are from.

.

'...I'm done....'

...See, even a blind hog gets an acorn ever now and then. A little late, but true none the less.

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#89
In reply to #83

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 2:27 PM

Just so that it is clear, you are offering no correction or support for your assertion that the force and acceleration are away from the center, right?

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#95
In reply to #83

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 7:50 PM

By the way, the mere fact that you are not alone in your action, does not indicate that your action is relevant, particularly useful, or even correct.

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#76
In reply to #72

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 1:02 PM

No, I corrected that statement...an accelerometer on the perimeter of a wheel will not register any acceleration unless of course the brakes were suddenly slammed on, or the gas was applied. So only when there is a sudden change in rpm will you get a reading on your accelerometer.

There ARE accelerometers on aircraft wheels, they are connected and part of the anti-skid system, so I have some nodding acquaintance with them. I am embarrassed by my erroneous statement that there would be any acceleration whatsoever on a perimeter point of a wheel which is turning at a constant speed. There isn't any, of course. I don't know WHAT I was thinking!

Having spent dozens of hours pouring over yards of graph paper as the test cycle was applied (wheel spun up, brakes applied) the results are pretty straightforward. We need to know these things to deal with skidding aircraft, so there is a pretty solid body of knowledge out there.

Did you really ask me why I would measure acceleration relative to its hub? Um....thats where the brakes are?

Why would you measure it from any other reference point? If you measure it from the ground, then why not from the peak of a passing mountain? The wheel of a tractor trailer on the ground? Or any other arbitrary point. Your windshield wiper is a lever attached to one end. When it starts moving, it has acceleration along its length. More as you get to the end of it. As it comes up to speed, and moves across the glass, there is no acceleration on any part of that lever. When it comes to a stop and returns, there is first a negative then a positive acceleration, which of course drops to zero as it continues across the glass. It needs to be designed to handle those accelerative forces without breaking.

The acceleration is higher at the tip of the wiper blade, and approaches zero at the base of it during the starting and stopping phases of its movement. The wiper blade acceleration is totally dependant upon its "hub". It does not give a hoot about the glass or the the steering wheel, or anything else.

Its ability to clean off the windshield at its extremity might be compromised if is going too fast out there, and it might break if it loads up too much stuff or changes speed too quickly.

Oh goodness, I just realized that sounds really condescending, this is obvious to a four year old, let alone a trained engineer! Sorry about that...I didn't mean to be. I don't understand why you would want to change the reference point to describe the motion of a wheel off its hub. I just don't get it!

I think I recognize the phenomon though...when you watch a tracked vehicle go past, the treads on the top are flinging forwards twice as fast as the vehicle speed (with respect to ground), then they slap down and the vehicle rides upon them. Clearly the treads on the ground are not moving with respect TO the ground! But just as clearly the treads on the ground ARE moving with respect to the vehicle body...moving backwards. And they cannot be changing speed with respect to top and bottom because they are joined by a chain. I remember watching this with fascination when I was a kid...and it provided me with a wee lesson on "how to look at things".

So I get the illusion.

But do I get your point?

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#78
In reply to #76

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 3:48 PM

Bravo.

It is a nice illusion though.

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#81
In reply to #76

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 7:58 PM

The tire is not rigid.

.

Gravity exists.

.

The motion is not circular about the center of the hub. (the outer edge profile at constant velocity, viewed parallel to the axis of rotation should be close to an ellipse that has a flat spot at the bottom and is centered slightly above the center of the axis of rotation.)

.

To exaggerate my point and hopefully make it more clear that it is not an illusions,

imagine (or actually do it if you need to) putting several ball bearing in one of the tire on your vehicle and adjust the air in tire till it is almost as low as it can get without riding on the rim. Then drive by someone at a constant speed and direction and have them listen for the balls bearings crashing into each other, or perhaps you can hear them on your own, or perhaps you might dust off some deductive reasoning (I don't care if it comes from the 4 year old bin, or the trained engineer bin, I'm more concerned about understanding than what mental logistics allowed you to get to the point).

.

So it the acceleration were constant over time for the inside of the tire wall, the ball bearings should settle pretty quickly. They certainly shouldn't should like your kids bubble gum bubble mower as they ping off the rim.....

.

Right?

.

An ideal accelerometer should read zero in free fall. To the extent that the downward motion of an accelerometer attached off center to a rotating body might be made to approximate free fall, and since it is certain not to be the same all the way around the path, shouldn't the reading change?

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#85
In reply to #81

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 11:05 AM

No. The motion IS circular around the centre of the hub. And yes, they will settle side by side very quickly. When you balance a tire...you do something similar.

Any flat spot will be from the wheel settling onto the ground...I assume even a locomotive steel wheel will have a very tiny flat spot as the wheel distorts a bit as it sits on the rail. Your hypothetical ball bearings in the tire will then bounce around a bit as that flat spot moves around the tire. When the plane lifts off, they will settle neatly apart along the inside of the tire as long as the plane is flying and the wheel is spinning. Eventually it will run down, but they spin for quite a while even after they have been folded into their wheel wells.

When the plane lands, your ball bearings will bounce around a bit...

Causing my riggers to cringe....so I don't want to try it. It would break too many FAA regulations. But if I may suggest a visual, imagine that wheel with the ball bearings in it was sitting flat, on the balancing machine. Do you think the ball bearings would bounce around or do you think they would line up neatly side by side around the inside of the tire?

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#87
In reply to #85

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 12:05 PM

We are talking about a rubber tire supporting a portion of the weight of a car.

.

The motion of the tread is definitely not circular about the hub.

.

You can see that you are ignoring a variable since what you say about the bearings (in addition to needing to be off the ground) requires the tire be spinning at a minimum speed. The don't 'stick to the side' below a minimum rpm even if they aren't touching the ground.

.

Not only have you oversimplified, but your example had to leave the grounds we were discussing....

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#90
In reply to #87

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 2:45 PM

I remember having a similar discussion with the good folks at Goodyear back in the 80's about their "revolutionary" Vector series radials. Tires that were not round whne running. The math was, well boggling, but the tires were actually made and did actually deformed as they rolled along finally becoming an egg shape. Surprisingly good rain tires.

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#97
In reply to #87

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/23/2013 11:31 AM

Then I guess I didn't get your point.

Sorry.

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#99
In reply to #97

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/23/2013 11:51 AM

I dont think anyone does.

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#74
In reply to #69

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 11:47 AM

How about in the following example: it we want to measure the acceleration of the point at the tip of the double pendulum, should we use your suggestion and choose the closest pivot as the frame of reference?

Would that give us the most useful indication? How can we zero accelerometer to a non inertial frame of reference?

.

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#70
In reply to #68

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 5:46 AM

You are aware there is a point exactly 180 degrees opposite on your wheel that is of identical mass, force, vectors, and velocities doing everything exactly opposite at the same time thusly canceling out any reciprocating forces right?

Food for thought.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crank_(mechanism)

http://mechanicalksk.weebly.com/uploads/3/7/8/3/3783671/ch-22_balancing_of_reciprocating_masses.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrifugal_force

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angular_momentum

The definitions and actions of reciprocating forces and rotating forces seem pretty well defined to me.

Like I said earlier if you want a serious discussion on how w wheel works start your own thread. Its really not that difficult!

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#71
In reply to #70

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 11:03 AM

'...You are aware there is a point exactly 180 degrees opposite on your wheel that is of identical mass, force, vectors, and velocities doing everything exactly opposite at the same time thusly canceling out any reciprocating forces right?

...'

I am aware of that and agree completely. The one small exception being the motion caused by deforming the tire is not exactly the same as the motion 180 degrees out.

.

If it weren't for the distortion of the contact patch, then it would be hard to argue that there a wheel with more mass on the outside would require more energy.....except for those rare occasions like every time automobile automobile was increasing in speed or going up hill.

.

But back to your first sentence, I am not in disagreement with that statement and didn't mean to suggest that I was. If that was what you were jumping my s*** about earlier, then I get why you would disagree with that, but it wasn't what I said, or at least not what I intended to say (though it does seem like a lot of people heard it that way).

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#61
In reply to #56

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 8:03 PM

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#62
In reply to #8

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/20/2013 12:58 PM

I was referring to the low profile tires that go on 18 and 19" wheels. They have less rubber than a 75 or 65 profile tire. They are on the newer 2010-present cars and look like big bicycle wheels. (cool?)

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#67
In reply to #62

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/20/2013 11:34 PM

(cool?)

We've been cool all along, even when I thought we were in disagreement.

Now that i realize you were talking about lower profile tires, I see how an argument can be made for that case. I'm not sure to what extent it might improve efficiency, but there isn't anything overtly objectionable about that assertion.

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#2

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:04 PM

The Convair B-36A in flight.

This B-36 was the state of the art in aviation in 1949. Note, the first models were 6 recip. engines, only. The 4 jets came later.

The B-52 came in the 1950's. It is still flying.

In 1969 we were on the moon.

Considering everything, I think we still have time to make strides.

And, remember, we went to the moon with slide rules, now we're doing tera-flop calculations on our desktop.

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#20
In reply to #2

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 6:30 AM

They put the engines on backwards!

I still have my slide rule in a desk drawer. Maybe I'll donate it to NASA so we can go back to the moon!

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#25
In reply to #2

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 9:03 AM

Nice post, except for the comment of "we went to the moon with slide rules", which is simply not true.

I am not saying that all Engineers left their slide rules at home (and maybe a spaceman smuggled one onboard a moonshot!), I expect that some early tests and calculations were performed on them before being accurately done digitally, but all the important final work was done digitally, and well before the first actual Apollo mission.....

The Apollo onboard computers were all digital as well.....

Computers were in use for what was to eventually become the "Space Race" from the early 50's onward.......mainly IBM and Univac (today Unisys).

See here:-

To-the-moon-the-integrators

I worked for Univac between '73 to '80......learnt a lot after only having analogue computers for missile control in the RN to play with up till then! I was really "behind the times" in 1973!!!

Mechanical analogue computers for gunnery control still then!!! They were sometimes very difficult to set up.....as was a similar device for the anti submarine mortars, first used in 1943 against German subs...

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#37
In reply to #25

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 4:18 PM

Just a little bit if side trivia, when they recommissioned the battleships Iowa and New Jersey in the 80s they looked at electronic fire control for the main battery guns, but after extensive studies and experiments found that the mechanical fire control was both more dependable and more accurate. For something built 40 years before the first PCs that was saying a lot.

I also have fun telling people 2 things.

1. My first hand held calculator, the best ones were made of bamboo.

The best slide rules were made from a special species of bamboo because it was stable and would not bind in damp weather like wood ones or get dirty or corrode like plastic or metal.

2. I used to talk to dinosaurs.

I took computer science in college and learned to program with COBOL, Fortran, and Pascal on a DEC-20 mainframe system. They are now called dinosaurs.

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#36
In reply to #2

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 3:48 PM

Aint that the truth.....i remember when one bit was one relay......good old Konrad Zuse.......we have plenty more to do with cars........ just ask Marty McFly

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#3

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:04 PM

Well then, let me ask you this, what will a car look like in 100 years? How much will it weigh? What will be it's fuel source? Can you answer any of these questions....no... Well then make your best guess and describe the car sitting in the showroom in the year 2112....

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#6
In reply to #3

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:15 PM

I doubt that any of those "concept" cars will ever see the road.

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#9

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 4:48 PM

In 100 years time (maybe less) cars could be powered by nuclear isomers, such as those of hafnium and tantalum, in which the nucleus can exist in a higher energy state. These can have half-lives of billions of years, yet can be triggered to give up their energy on demand. 1 gram of said hafnium nuclear isomer yields 1.33 gigajoules of energy when triggered. Such sources may be able to store 1 million times more energy than any chemical fuel. Other nuclear isotopes include Ag, Ho, Lu and Am. The only impediment at the moment is how to trigger the transition, without expending as much energy as is released. The radiation and heat can be used directly or be used to generate electricity via a typical p/n silicon junction.

What will the cars be made of? Graphene, perhaps.

No more gas stations. Fueled for life. When the car is sitting at home, it can power your entire household.

Just a thought.

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#10

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 5:56 PM

LNG = Goodbye Middle East.

There is also no reason to make cars that are capable of tripling the speed limit, or more. Quick pick up, yes.

There is no reason to be able to pass 100 MPH, unless you are running from the cops.

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#12
In reply to #10

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 7:01 PM

Each oil field produces a certain weight and type of crude that is suitable for certain products...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crude_oil_products

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#58
In reply to #10

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 12:54 PM

But it is fun to pass 100 MPH, and besides some roads just demand to be driven like that. OOOOHHHHHHHHH I feel the need for SPEED!!!!

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#11

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 6:01 PM

"Larger tires are likely to also be heavier, and since the outer portion touches the road, it accelerated regularly from a full stop to twice the speed of the remainder of the vehicle...then back to a full stop, again and again and again."

HUH? Physics 101 fail?

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#13
In reply to #11

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 8:26 PM

I was wondering if anyone would catch that.

.

What I said is technically true. The motion of something on the edge is that of cycloid, and in fact it does change from being at a stand still to going twice as fast as the rest of the vehicle.

.

Moreover, it can clearly be seen, since the tire is not round at the points of contact with the road (contact patch), and that the point of contact is continually changing for the tire, the tire is obviously a not rigid body, nor does it behave essentially like a rigid body. That said, any comments to the effect that acceleration resulting from angular velocity may be negated will have to be based on something other than the rotation of a rigid body....

.....I am interested in a good response down that path.

.

.

Back to the original intent of the poorly worded statement: The additional weight from 'larger tires' will be at the outside of the wheel. This will make the vehicle harder to accelerate and therefor require additional fuel to achieve the same rates of acceleration. This is one of the worst places you could put additional weight, all other things being equal.

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#14
In reply to #13

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 8:39 PM

This is one possible solution↑

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#15
In reply to #14

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 8:48 PM

I think that wheel could be effectively modeled as a rigid body.....for a while.

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#28
In reply to #13

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 12:11 PM

You are using the wrong frame of reference for the wheels. They rotate around the center of the axle which is part of the vehicle that is not fixed to the ground which is what you are referencing the poorly defined reciprocating motion to.

Reciprocating motion requires some sort of cam or crankshaft to happen such as with what your pistons and valve train do inside the engine. Wheels are purely a rotational motion device when moving.

That's why they are measured by revolutions per unit of time not strokes per unit of time.

As far as contact patch area and location goes that has nothing to do with the definition of rotation or reciprocating anything. Its a whole different function and action relating to the flexibility of the materials of the tire, the air pressure contained within it, the weight of the load it's carrying, and the orientation to the forces involved.

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#39
In reply to #28

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 5:32 PM

'...They rotate around the center of the axle which is part of the vehicle that is not fixed to the ground which is what you are referencing the poorly defined reciprocating motion to....'

.

Really? Because I thought the purpose of turning the wheels in a car has more to do with distance traveled over the ground, and not so we could sit in the car and count how many times the wheels rotate. But then perhaps you don't use your vehicles the same way I use mine.

.

Seriously though, if you are going to attack someones simplified model (especially when the person has already admitted it wasn't the best wording), it is probably a good idea to make any models your present in contrast as airtight as possible....Ya, know glass houses and all that.

.

'...Wheels are purely a rotational motion device when moving...'

.

'Purely' 'rotational' huh? We are still talking about with the tire attached right? Because that is what I have been talking about the whole time. It wouldn't make sense to switch mid argument to something that excludes the very thing we were discussing, right?

.

So when you used the word 'purely', were you engaging in a bit of hyperbole (no reason is required, we can write it off to artistic license or did you intend it in its pure meaning, as in having a quality of being unmixed or unadulterated ?

.

You see for something to be considered 'purely rotational' in the literal sense, the pieces or points within the substance by definition follow an elliptical path. Quite often the ellipse is one with equal major and minor axes, which we know as a circle.

.

The problem is that a tire does not follow this path. It deviated significantly and regularly, This deviation is very important, since it creates the contact patch.

.

In fact, from a certain reference frame, this deviation look a hell of a lot like reciprocation. Hmmm.

.

This is responsible for one of the major expenditures of fuel in your vehicle at moderate speed.

.

Just remember that all models are flawed, so pretending that one model is the actual wiring under the board is bound to eventually end in disappointment. To that end, almost no rolling object can be considered 'purely rotational', since there is deformation at the contact patch.....

.

Just consider what would happen if a perfectly round wheel that did not deform were placed on a perfectly flat surface that did not deform....and pushed......What would be the area of the contact patch? Well the contact patch wouldn't be an area, it would be essentially a line.

.

Without an area of contact, can you be sure there will be enough friction that the wheel will roll? or when you push it would it just slide?

.

You can ignore that whole line of thought if you want, because I think it is pretty pointless. Pointless in the same way as arguing that a rolling object is 'purely rotational'. Sure a less than perfect model can be developed based only on rotation, but that doesn't mean what is actually happening marches in step to your simplification.

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#29
In reply to #13

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 12:13 PM

"in fact it does change from being at a stand still to going twice as fast as the rest of the vehicle."

Sorry, no it doesn't.

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#45
In reply to #29

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 7:29 PM

Really Lyn?

.

Are you really suggesting:

.

A point on the outer surface of the tire (that is not sliding when it is at the highest point is not traveling at twice the rate as the body of the car, relative to the ground?

.

and

.

A point on the outer surface that is contacting the ground and not slipping will not be stopped relative to the ground?

.

.

Please elaborate on how your tires work for you.

.

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#46
In reply to #45

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 7:40 PM

I surrender.

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#47
In reply to #46

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 8:00 PM

His argument reminds me of how the OU believers make their math and physics work, sort of.

Just use the wrong frames of reference for all of your measurements and calculations then leave out the well defined and understood mechanics that would properly define things and before you know it we are all driving around on reciprocating tires that stop and go every half turn yet never change their rotational velocity!

He wins. Experience tells me I need to quit too.

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#49
In reply to #47

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 8:47 PM

Interesting. You offer no refutation. Just an attempt to associate me with 'OU believers', and a vague accusation of using the 'wrong' frame of reference.

.

I would have thought you TCMTECH would have been forthright enough to either:

.

-attempt to refute what I wrote; perhaps some sort of argument that a tire could somehow be accurately modeled as a purely rigid body, and therefor the tire motion might be accurate described as purely rotational.

.

or

.

-described where I might have misunderstood your words or where you might have used words that would have been better.

.

or

.

Explain some error, temporary insanity, or that your computer had been hijacked by persons trying to besmirch your good name.

.

.

.

But your reply sucks. It is disappointing. I certainly hope that when some young impressionable mind comes to you with questions about OU, you can provide a decent rebuttal. I mean if you really feel like I embody that quackery, and that is the best counter you can muster, I feel sorry for any young mind who looks to you for wisdom.

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 9:17 PM

I think arguments are a waste of time but I really like this one.

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#51
In reply to #49

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 9:28 PM

Are you having a bad day or something?

What exactly are you looking for anyway, physics definitions or the like, that you can't find on Google with a properly defined search?

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#52
In reply to #51

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 10:21 PM

'....What exactly are you looking for anyway, physics definitions or the like, that you can't find on Google with a properly defined search?...'

.

That is exactly what I'm looking for; the physics definitions you relied upon to call my comment a 'physics 101 fail', and to say that I was using a 'wrong' frame of reference. (I guess the benefit of picking 'right' and 'wrong' frames of reference is you would never have to learn anything like Galilean transformations, right?)

.

Those special physics definitions cannot be found with a properly defined Google search, so the fact that you have repeatedly hinted at but still refuse to divulge the information which only you (and maybe Lyn, though I think he may have purged the ideas, in a violent reaction to cognitive dissonance) seem to know, has really built up the level of anticipation.

.

So in answer to your question, yeah, that is what I want, or alternately (and definitely preferred) I want a sound, logical, well supported, adult argument from a CR4 member who has demonstrated many times over the ability to develop arguments far more respectable and formidable that is apparent today.

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#53
In reply to #52

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 11:01 PM

If you are serious about this I suggest you run a dedicated thread relating to what you are pondering on.

You will get far better help than by hijacking this one to discus whether your tires rotate or reciprocate as your vehicle moves.

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#54
In reply to #53

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 12:06 AM

Look. I don't want to be at odds with you. I'm still not certain exactly what you are disagreeing with, but at this point I don't think we are going in a positive direction.

.

Maybe some other time we can revisit this and figure out where things went askew. I respect your opinion and line of thinking a much of what I have seen you write. I have trouble thinking we are genuinely this far off base. Eventually I'd like to know, but for now let's just leave it.

.

Truce?

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#32
In reply to #13

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 1:12 PM

Road surface and condition must also affect tire performance and wear, but that's another topic.

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#27
In reply to #11

Re: The future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 11:34 AM

Sounds like rush hour traffic.

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#16

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 10:23 PM

"As far as performance is concerned, they are not designed for performance, because as we all know, performance comes about at the sacrifice of fuel efficiency. Hybrids and electrics also pay a weight penalty"

Hmm - have you driven the Volt at all? Or a Tesla - even a Nissan LEAF. They all perform well.

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#17

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/17/2013 11:45 PM

Seems to me that in conventional vehicles there are two main causes of excess fuel consumption. The first is wind resistance but that is effectively what we are 'paying' for when long-distance traveling and any aerodynamic improvements directly help here. The other is braking. If this is passive and the kinetic energy is dissipated, then it is simply wasted energy. Something like the KERS used in Formula 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_energy_recovery_system or another energy recovery system can certainly help here. Might be electric, flywheel, compressed gas etc.

Talk of 'spirited driving' is misleading as the culprit really is spirited braking. Brisk acceleration per se is not wasting fuel unless the engine designers have built in a mixture-enriching system to enhance peak performance. Of course, running the engine around it's peak torque rpm when driving at maximum throttle is an advantage. At lower throttle settings, running at below peak torque rpm is generally more economical.

For those of us who don't own KERS-equipped or hybrid vehicles, adopting a driving style that avoids the need for repeated braking (requires experience and foresight!) substantially improves gas mileage.

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#24
In reply to #17

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 9:01 AM

GA! It is when we brake that we waste most of the kinetic energy we paid for.

For some drivers, this is where most of the fuel goes.

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#33
In reply to #17

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 1:19 PM

Braking does not waste fuel. It's the acceleration after braking that wastes fuel. If we can accelerate gradually and maintain the same engine vacuum without compensating for road conditions, we can improve milage. But who wants to drive like in a high milage contest.

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#42
In reply to #33

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 5:56 PM

It seems to me that braking is the conversion of fuel to waste heat.

Fuel used to impart kinetic energy to the vehicle is totally wasted when that energy is converted into frictional heat using brakes.

Or am I missing something?

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#43
In reply to #42

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 6:29 PM

Please.

Nobody will argue that the most economical way to go from A to B is to NEVER use the brakes. No traffic lane on the planet is designed for this. Trains come close, relatively speaking.

Let's just take 'em (brakes) out of all the cars, trucks, trains and planes on the planet and all our troubles will be over. Then, soon we won't waste any gas at all.

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#48
In reply to #43

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 8:11 PM

I like it !!

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#59
In reply to #43

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 1:13 PM

And a good form of population control as well.

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#65
In reply to #43

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/20/2013 6:16 PM

I hardly ever use brakes........

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#44
In reply to #42

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 6:57 PM

The secret of course is to turn that wasted energy into useful energy like charging the battery on a hybrid or absorbing the heat for further use.

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#35
In reply to #17

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 1:38 PM

You can't be serious!"the culprit really is spirited braking. Brisk acceleration per se is not wasting fuel" is so incredably wrong as to be laughable.

Spirited braking produces heat. Period. There may be a correlation between having to brake rapidly and driving style, but really............................

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#40
In reply to #35

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 5:47 PM

Simply a question of waste vs use. You need fuel to accelerate the vehicle - it's not wasted. That investment in kinetic energy is carrying you to your destination, that's use. Converting your investment to heat is waste. So it really is the braking that is the culprit.

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#41
In reply to #40

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 5:53 PM

I refuse to joust verbally with an unarmed man.

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#18

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 3:23 AM

You might want to expand on the point: " ...They will cater to what the public wants..."

So far I see that besides fuel efficiency the development goes into how compatible the car is with your mobile phone (not to mention any brand). It might just me but if you want to find out why fuel efficiency, that as you say has been resolved years ago, was not widely distributed up until now and still is not implemented everywhere you really better follow the social trends. Did you notice car advertisements offering Bluetooth for the car? Would you care?

Will it be the self driving car with Android technology? You want any "fruit" driving your car? Does it matter how much fuel it takes? Do you still have the Veranda lights on, pay your engery bill regardless what it is since you can not change much of it?

Does the majority really care about a liter of fuel if the bigger car or SUV is soo much more fun and more useful than the little city jumper? What do we want out of a car? Can you move a 7 people family in a Mini?

Fuel efficiency does play a role but it has lost its hype already and will not be and was never the standalone sales argument. If it comes to fuel or color I bet the color beats fuel by length in the decision for buying a car!

I believe efficiency is only one argument but it is not the ruling one, hence the development will not be based entirely on this.

Make every car in itself fuel efficient will not resolve a problem with single people commuting in big cars making it partially inefficient.

The painter still needs a big van for his work gear.

Yes it seems we are on the edge of development, but who would have thought about mobile phones some decades ago?

Planes for everyone! There is still room for improvement!

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#19

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 3:42 AM

You said 'Typical Driver'
There is no typical driver on a global scale, and the auto industry is becoming increasingly global.
Even in the US what is 'typical' in New York isn't typical in Texas. Then compare the huge distances in the US compared to the UK.
Then look at fuel price.
In the US you don't have a great incentive to go small and efficient. In an urban environment in the UK we do.
Del

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#21

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 6:48 AM

I think eventually there will be autonomous cars, although I'm personally not looking forward to it. (I don't even like automatic transmission.) If the cars don't drive themselves, I would not be surprised if there were some standardized vehicle-to-vehicle communication and collision avoidance system to prevent accidents.

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#23

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 8:11 AM

Autonomos cars are only a couple years away. At least on a small scale. I think Nevada just made it legal. I believe this is what the google car has been doing.

I would like to see a selector switch on a vehicle that you set for performance or for economy. The computer would adjust everything based on this. I think Ferrari, the Mustang Boss 302, and BMW's M cars have something like this. It could adjust turbo boost, timing, valve lift, compression ratio etc.

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#30

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 12:21 PM

Now that is a big order. One I feel needs some framing to be meaningful in any way.

So, First, what will the "car" look like in one hundred years. Ok, lets try and wrap our well educated brains around some fairly solid projections.

China will be the worlds biggest economy with almost half of all cars on the road in a third of that time. India will be second. The good ol USA will be a distant 3. Since economics run things and not good common sense this is what we will be looking at in 100 years. Unless China and India both suddenly become good world citizens and stewards of the planets atmosphere, it will be chronically polluted to the point that you will not be able to see across the street worldwide. Think Bejing or Calcutta on a global scale. On the plus side, the internal combustion engine will be gone finally having depleted the worlds oil supply in only 75 years at currently projected rates.

So consider those two little niggling facts as you try to envision a future automobile.

One thing is certain. it will NOT be fossil fuel powered.

So guys, start there and lets see where we go.

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#31

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 12:54 PM

Predicting the future. Now there's a mugs game...but hey, I'll play it. Let me put on my Karnak the Magnificient hat....

The future of automobiles is that as much as I would like them to just go away, they won't. What WILL happen is that they will become increasingly self handling. Now they park themselves. In fifty years, they will drive themselves.

Safety equipment will be more and more elaborate, and intrusive. The idea of a "fun ride" will be a distant memory. So most people will simply abandon the automobile since it really won't be fun any more. This is already happening in large urban centres.

Petrochemicals will be a recurring method of providing energy, but will be in a big fight with other methods, everything from wound springs to compressed air to spinning flywheels. Such arguements will solve nothing, and of course, none of them will work, but will be perpetually argued about in taverns and on line forums. Electrical storage methods will be mostly useless because the rare earths required to make batteries will be sequestered by hostile nations, leaving us to work with questionably efficient but "green" iron based edison batteries. Lead Acid batteries will be ancient history due to successful environmental lobby groups who will be in the process of doing the "great clean up".

And people with over unity devices will post their claims on on-line forums as the answer to all our problems.

The sudden realization in 2017 that cars killed more people than guns, (even in America! wow!), results in an overall increase in car purchases by terrorist extremist organizations who then proceeded to kill thousands, but those efforts were abandoned only a few years later when they realized that they could not do any more damage than the "average car owner" was doing to himself. And people didn't really notice their efforts. The real reason of course for the abandonment of cars as a terror weapon was the unforgivable (by the terrorists) support by right wing talk radio, who muddied their "message" by demanding a car in every garage! They went back to guns and bombs as a more effective political statement.

When the US economy collapses in 2023 due to the futile attempt to replace all those crumbling bridges and pot holed roads, the rail lines and aircraft became the only way to travel from city to city. The airlines grounded all their oil burning fleets in preparation of new technology which would be able to convert all the paperwork involved with fixing aircraft into fuel which would power said aircraft. Nah...just kidding, there is no way we could find space to store all that fuel if that technology became common!

What will happen is that cross country trucking will be replaced by cross country trains of airships. Cheap, unmanned hydrogen airships will replace the fleets of aging diesel trucks, who cannot run anyway because the roads suck, and even if they didn't suck, they would not be allowed to run because they are too dangerous. The discovery that trucking alone kills more people yearly than gang bangin' drug cartels will result in all trucking simply taken off the road. Rail will be a good fall back, at least until the end of the next century.

AS the price of automobiles keeps going up, some alternatives will offer themselves. Co-operative ownership will become much more common, perhaps involving increasing use of taxi cabs and public transport. This will result in cars being less "personal". Perhaps the idea of a generic car (dial a car!) which arrives when you call for it will become viable the same time as cars which drive themselves. Certainly this would be more useful than dragging all that hockey gear onto a bus twice a week! Shopping will be so different...no football field sized parking lots in front of the mall. All your purchases will be delivered (by pneumatic tube! Oh, lets not get ahead of ourselves! More likely a taxi cab of some sort.) before you even get home.

Oh, wait a minute....my magic eight ball is coming up...."reply unclear, check again later".

Let the games begin!

Happy "family day" to my Canadian friends.

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#34

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 1:33 PM

Quite a "spirited" response and good points made all around. There are so many factors involved that one answer will not fit all. We can't predict the future. Our answers can only be dependent on current technology as we know it.

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#84
In reply to #34

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 10:09 AM

Well, you can't seriously think we will have privately owned automobiles a century from now do you? They have practically destroyed the world now, they won't be allowed to continue to do so. What I gave in my "spirited" response was only one scenario...others may arise. I mean, lets face it, Sparks Street here in Ottawa was a dirt road a hundred years ago. Then it was paved, and now its a pedestrian road. A lot can happen in a hundred years!

Automobiles are only one quarter as dangerous as they were when Ralph Nader wrote his book "Unsafe at any speed". They are still three thousand times more dangerous than mass transit. Your president is passing legislation to limit the death toll of firearms, and is facing serious opposition.....opposition I fully understand from the point of view of constitutional freedom and even intellectually from an idealistic stand point, however automobiles, even if they become as far again safer as they have in last twenty years, will STILL kill as many Americans every month as the terrorists did on 9-11. Will STILL kill more Americans than guns ever did. (including enemy guns in all the wars the US has ever participated in!) And I wonder if I have STILL understated the problem....

The cost of replacing the crumbling infrastructure will exceed 425 Billion, (the original cost of the interstate highway system, which works out to seventeen thousand bucks a person....which is more than the debt load which pushed California into bankruptcy. But this is only the Interstate Highways system...the one designed by Pershing as a military highway, and expanded by Hoover to employ folks during the depression, and incidentally starting the US onto the greatest debt program the world has ever seen. The Interstate system is a small fraction of the crumbling infrastructure which will be clamouring for dollars to fix them. So, quite simply, I don't see the highway system being replaced in my children's lifetime. Though great efforts will be made keep those feeding tubes in, that Grandma will sooner or later have to be left to pass on, and be replaced with something else.

I did not want to pick on the US, I did only because the statistics are more readily at hand. The same thing applies to the global community, even more so! Africa has not built its "interstate", let alone think about replacing it.

So my take on this is quit trying to figure out how to make cars more efficient, or for that matter, safer, and put that energy to thinking of what you can replace a private motor car with. Trying to design a better car will, in a hundred years, be as pointless as designing a better candle to light your bathroom. The future of the automobile is that it will disappear like the dinosaur it is.

Anyway, at least I stayed on topic....grin!

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#86
In reply to #84

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 11:32 AM

"The cost of replacing the crumbling infrastructure will exceed 425 Billion,"

425E9/ (367E6 Gallons per day * .184 U.S. tax per gallon * 365 days in a year)

At current consumption rates the 425 Billion dollar price tag can be financed with gasoline taxes ALONE (not including diesel) over a period of 17.2 years.

And blaming the interstate highway program for initiating (or even significantly increasing) US debt is --- well --- hogwash.

In terms of capital programs - highway and infrastructure investment generates much greater economic growth than gold plated defense programs; and because of the positive effect an efficient transportation system has on overall economic efficiency - contributes much more to national security.

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#100
In reply to #86

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/23/2013 11:59 AM

Thats okay G. You can pay for it if you think you can afford it.

So what do you THINK paid for the interstate system? Buttons? Or Bonds? Bonds are debt load.

Doesn't matter what I think though. The thread is about the future of the automobile. You have finally weighed in on it...what do YOU think is the future of the automobile?

Me....I'll put my money into rail stocks. What with the keystone pipeline dead in the water, rail is the way of the future.... and will be for the next century. After that...maybe moving sidewalks or seqways...who knows. I won't be there to find out.

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#38

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/18/2013 5:03 PM

Been a busy day here so I have not had the time to really do a good search of the topic. Still I am certain that at some point a reporter or columnist asked Henry Ford what he thought the American car would look like in one hundred years....

The 1912 Ford model T

It would have been interesting to hear what he thought back then.

Like it or not, tomorrow always comes.

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#64
In reply to #38

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/20/2013 2:34 PM

That is an interesting question. I always thought Henry Ford was level headed to a fault. However, he did once say "the only history worth a tinker's damn is the history we make today." I take that to mean that he did not concern himself with the destination, but rather the route he planned to take to get to it. He would have simply shrugged his shoulders and said...there will be automobiles. All the while, he had visions of aeroplanes, heavy trucks and alternative fuels ranging from electricity to charcoal.

I also don't think he much cared about cars. His forte was the perfection of the "assembly line". Cars were only a part of it. He preferred trucks of all types and sizes, because he really did not think the luxury car concept has legs. His F-100 pickup was the most successful model of vehicle ever made anywhere, so he may have had a point. The mini-van has taken the place of the light pickup. When asked if gave the people what they wanted, he replied "if I asked the people what they want, they tell me they want faster horses!". Then he proceeded to make what HE wanted. This attitude was both the power and the bane of the Ford motor company.

He was called a "traitor to his class" because he was prepared to pay his workers a fair days work for a fair days pay. It wasn't until the second world war that the UAW got their hooks into his employees...they had a hard time because it was a decent place to work, and unions thrive on bully-bosses and dissent in the ranks.

I had always thought he was VERY anti-Semitic, until I found out that in fact, the Dodge brothers were partners, who nearly broke him when they split off. Too easy to throw out anti-Semitic one liners when that happens. Oh well...I suspect everybody was in those days. But he was partners with them for awhile, so it could not have been all that bad. In his attempts to calm down belligerants in WWI and before WWII, he said things to calm down the racist nazi's which I am sure he regretted.

The most interesting "Ford" in my opinion was the plastic one he had designed in 1941. It ran on ethanol. How cool was that! He worked closely with George Washington Carver to design plastic panels for his car, as well as plastics which could replace rubber tires, brake lines, and paint. Engineering at its finest and most cutting edge! He felt that future automobiles would be extensions of this design phase. The snarky comment at the time was "alcohol is the fuel of the future and always will be!" His work with Charles Kettering still sets the bar.

These quotes (or at least some of them) are printed out and pasted on my employee's lockers. Helps to focus.

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#55

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 12:24 AM

One of my favorite songs, Red Barchetta by Rush is about the future of the automobile.

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#57

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/19/2013 12:36 PM

I think I should have re-phrased my statements. Instead of using the word "wasted", I really should have said "consumed".

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#66

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/20/2013 9:05 PM

"It then appears the automobile as we know it has reached a plateau in its design. Very few improvements in either efficiency or performance will come about that I can see, but what do I know? "

From my perspective I would disagree about the platue.

Vehicles in general are one of the most diversified yet still identifiable machines ever created and because of that diversification I don't see the concept ever reaching a limit being that as long as there is ground to travel over there will be some sort of vehicle to cross it in order to do whatever its operator needs it to do.

Some people want tiny fuel sipping vehicles with no frills and only goes from point A to B.

Others want vehicles that supposedly have zero impact on the environment.

Some want large fast heavy durable vehicles and don't care what the fuel is or costs.

Others need heavy huge vehicles to carry tremendous cargo loads over any terrain regardless of cost, fuel consumption, or environmental impact.

Then there are those who need to carry huge loads for distances with the greatest of efficiency for the least operating cost regardless of how that vehicle is powered just as long as it has enough power to do the job.

Some people want a vehicle that they can live in and live well while being there.

Then there are an uncountable numbers of combinations and variations on each of these base needs and wants that expand out from there.

One vehicle of one design will never meet every single application need or want which to me means that by design and application vehicles will be forever adapting and changing to meet the needs of whom ever wants them for what ever reason.

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#82

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/21/2013 9:44 PM

After a quick perusal of the thread I want to state my idea of a successful future internal combustion power process for an automobile.

It will be a "Series Hybrid Power Process."

The prime mover will produce power at a near constant rate based on the operator selected "transportation cycle" which is "experience defined," stored in computer memory, and tweaked based on storage device status.

The process will regenerate brake energy at high efficiency from maximum sustained speed to near stop. The combustion energy savings will approximate KER divided by the efficiency factor of the power process in acceleration.

The independent four wheel drive process will have tractive control in both acceleration and braking that will maintain tractive effort near the slipping torque during high rates of acceleration/braking; in ICE/electric hybrids this will probably be based on the traction control processes similar to those used in Railroad Locomotives.

The storage device will be sized according to desired performance; sized between a single KE unit device (storage capacity equal to the KE of the vehicle at maximum sustained speed)for adequate performance with limited grade-ability, to multiple KE units depending on desired level of performance. I will suggest that the storage device of a very high performance, blow the doors off, high grade-ability process would capacitate about 4 KE units.

http://www.bestsyndication.com/Articles/2006/c/carter_mark/031206_hybrid_cars.htm

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#91

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 2:46 PM

Not sure if this would apply to cars, but the diesel electric locomotive combines the best technology to attain economy and efficiency. Electric motor(motors) driven by a diesel powered generator could power large trucks. It might be scaled down for cars and small trucks. I don't know what the efficiency figures are for locomotives, just thinking out loud.

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#92
In reply to #91

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 2:53 PM

I have seen some work on large trucks using hydraulics for gearing and power transfer. They claim/predict significant improvements in efficiency and longevity.

I imagine that diesel electric might offer similar advantages, being able to run the engine as speeds for optimum efficiency regardless off road speed.

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#93
In reply to #92

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 3:21 PM

The Krause Maffie company made a diesel hydralic locomotive used primarily in Europe although the Denver Rio Grande / Southern Pacific did have a few back in the day. Europeans claim them to be superior to diesel electric. Although that was prior to the next Gen GE 4400 series which comes in both AC and DC flavors.

http://sp9010.ncry.org/faq.htm

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#94
In reply to #93

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 6:23 PM

Donkey Shame

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#96
In reply to #93

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/22/2013 8:45 PM

I work at our local rail yard and have been reading up on some of the designs that were used and experimented with over they years and the hydraulic drive systems although slightly more efficient than the electric drive had a fatal flaw.

Namely the EPA. EPA regulations state that hydraulic oil is not a toxic substance nor does it pose any serious threat to the environment until it has been ran though a mechanical system once. After that its considered a toxic substance and all toxic clean up protocols need to be taken.

Now consider a locomotive may have held between 500 - 750 gallons of hydraulic oil and it developed a moderate leak. That train could leave a drooling trail of hydraulic fluid for hundreds of miles before it was found or the system completely shut down.

How much do you think it cost the railroads in clean up fines and fees every time one of the their locomotives sprung a leak?

That's what primarily killed the further development of the diesel hydraulic locomotive.

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#101
In reply to #92

Re: The Future of the Automobile

02/23/2013 6:01 PM

Kind of like my Prius except it's not diesel? Well it does use the ICE for direct power as well. I doubt we (humans, if we still exsist in 100 years) will still be using gas/diesel to power vehicles in the future.

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