Typhoon Haiyan - How Should We Enginners Respond?

GA!

...and even then, mother nature will dish things out that can kill thousands, or even millions. It's likely that it's only a matter of time until a resistant "killer" virus emerges, that will considerably thin the global population.

Exactly right.

However, in this particular instance no building or structure is going to be dependable in a Cat 5 storm with peak winds of about 190 mph and a 20 foot storm surge.

The only recourse is to get the hell out, but that not only requires infrastructure designed to mobilize huge number of people, but education to know when to get out.

Even first world countries have an almost impossible task of doing that.

So what happened when Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana/New Orleans. All the parasites sat around waiting for the pay checks to be signed, before going to their aid. There were alot of people waiting an awfull long time for help to arrive. I don't believe the area has fully recovered and that's 8 years on.

as with Katrina...the people of the area not only had experience living in a storm zone, they had the luxury of several days of notice to get out of the way. for many they chose to stay and the aftermath of these decisions is painfully clear. I was really struck with how flimsy many of these structures must have been based on the endless debris piles scattered almost everywhere. I have no idea if they have building codes and code enforcement but now everything MUST be rebuilt. it would behoove generations of people there to invest in more stringent buildings that are made to withstand the certainties they will continue to deal with when storms strike again

to buttress my point.... in viewing multiple photos (more coming all the time) its apparent that at least some of the remnants of prior structures had a good deal of concrete to them, these in many cases are the only things left standing that could survive the fierce winds that tore roofs off, blew out windows, stripped siding, etc. I'm not suggesting every residence be rebuilt with ICF walls but just think of how many more people would have survived and would have an easier task to rebuild if just one wall had been built to withstand the force of this sustained killer wind. I know they don't have American standards but It really seems like common sense to expect to see this movie again small investments today could reap so much in the future. will it happen again? I think so

Applying "American standards" requires a great deal more money than is available to most folks here. The rich already have substantial structures on higher ground (stronger roofing and windows may be needed to counter 300 km/hr winds that are more likely to occur in the future).

It's extremely hard when the infrastructure is deeply effect.... if there was one.

Check and see how CR4 responded to the earthquake in Haiti........ I'm sure they was a lot to learn from there...

So do we need to rehash the 'Haiti discussion'? I agree, a better education system is definitely a good start for a whole lot of reasons. And do we need to target 9 billion of us as a 'worthy achievement'?

The Dalai Lama was once asked for a definition of the meaning of life. His response .. "to be happy and helpful". I must admit I have moved this to another level with a book about to be published ... in English and Chinese ... "88 ways to be happy, helpful and rich!"

And today in China is 11-11 Singles Day, that celebrates single life, and there is also a massive spend online today, with estimates heading north of $5Billion in one day. Maybe that's how we limit the world's population, while generating the cash to improve education and the stanadards etc. Replace Valentine' Day with Singles Day. I bet that didn't come up in the Haiti discussion?!

9 billion?

The world's population is currently north of 7 billion.
Estimates suggest that by 2050, there will be more than 9 billion.
That's just over 1 generation from now.



















If you want a 'neutral growth' country, it is Pitcairn Islands
and the most negative is Cook Islands. See popn growth stats by country

Really should use current and not future projections with how you framed your post.....

Single does not mean celibate. How do you convince poor to abstain from an activity. That is most likely is the only thing that gives them release and comfort from their situation.

We already know how to build homes that can stand the test of a typhoon. But the cost is out of reach to the poor. They are limited to what ever they can acquire with the means of their income.

We can all agree that if the people were better educated. The government could then alleviate the problems. Better question to ask is why it isn't done and how to correct that.

A revisit to the 2 Haiti discussions would be a great start. A lot of very good ideas came out of them....some others not so practical.

The most important improvement to be made would be devising a way to get the relief to the affected victims of the disaster more quickly and completely.

That means finding honest people to administer and distribute the money/goods/services/help in whatever form without theft, fraud or diversion from the intended victims.

So, in other words, they're screwed and things will likely never get better for them.

Is there a Walmart in the area,,,,,,,,,,

FEMA was highly dependent about them when Katrina Hit........

But in all seriousness...... A time to have or create an emergency plan is NOT when you need it........ There should be one in plan BEFORE it needed, and people should know about it.

Plan for disasters and TEST the plan as thoroughly as possible. I was a participant in a recent disaster test plan where one of the main things to be tested was the evacuation of a building that had a "shooter" in it, and possibly a bomb. The building was a local government facility which was to be evacuated. The person in charge of the building refused to let us actually do the evacuation because he did not want any of the people to be traumatized! So we waited until after hours when they all went home for the day. So our realistic test of the plan was a failure in that we had no idea what issues might have surfaced if we actually evacuated the building. Just think how traumatized these people will be if this event ever actually happens!

Just venting a bit here, but the point is, you need plans and you MUST TEST THE PLAN. (posting anon due to the sensitive nature of my involvement)

I'll vent with you. That building manager is an idiot and should be removed before his/her attitude potentially makes a bad situation worse.

There is nothing worse than trying to deal with someone in an emergency when they have that "deer in the headlights" face or when they freeze from fear or from not knowing how to react.

Hooker

Wow, looks like he wants trauma.......... wait till he's unprepared with a real emergency situation.

UN should stock emergency relief materials & volunteers around the world for fast response,by creating an account in worldbank & asking member states & rich nations to contribute.

A close reading of past and future histories of the human race indicates that education doesn't improve the longterm quality of disaster planning and response. See Diamond, Jared "Collapse" The Library at Alexandria, for instance. Religion isn't education. Quite the opposite. When we stop ruining the education of children with religion, we will be on the way to this utopia.

What in the ? are you thinking? Why are you attacking religion? Education does not necessarily mean people will be prepared for an emergency. Perhaps if there was more real religion, there would be less looting, pillaging, and those interfering with relief columns. I think you sir, are a misanthrope.

If more time was spent actually building central structures that (1) can withstand typhoon winds over 150 mph, and (2) are essentially immune to the storm surge of over 20 feet, and less time pointing fingers at people who actually have nothing to do with the problem, maybe something positive could be done.

I would hire you to engineer an outhouse.

Send in Mike Reynolds, AKA "The Garbage Warrior".

We're really not much safer in the US...not against something like this.

A major tornado in a major US city would be equally tragic, and the government still hasn't fixed the damage from hurricane Sandy.

How Should We Enginners Respond?

We could start by looking for opportunities and hiking up our rates.

Engineers could be mobilised to provide temporary solar/wind power & cheaper water filtration.

Canada sent the DART team. Thats the Disaster Relief Team. Last time we sent it was to Haiti, the Indonesian Tsunami and to New Orleans. There is a LOT of organization and stuff which goes into something like this. This is the report on New Orleans alone... You just don't want to drop a bunch of uniformed soldiers onto a foreign country without getting the paperwork under control!

Prevents nervous reactions...

Nervous reaction or is it paranoia?

Look at this extract from Wikipidea of the countries who offered aid/help after Katrina.

'Several foreign leaders have expressed frustration that they couldn't get a go-ahead from the Bush administration to administer help. Bush said on the ABC News program Good Morning America that the United States could fend for itself, "I do expect a lot of sympathy and perhaps some will send cash dollars," Bush said of foreign governments.

The immediate response from many nations was to ask to be allowed to send in self-sustaining search and rescue teams to assist in evacuating those remaining in the city. This first to respond was Venezuela, offering tons of food, water, and a million barrels of extra petroleum. France had a range of aircraft, two naval ships and a hospital ship standing ready in the Caribbean. Russia offered four jets with rescuers, equipment, food and medicine, but their help was first declined before later being accepted. Germany had offered airlifting, vaccination, water purification, medical supplies including German air force hospital planes, emergency electrical power and pumping services; their offer was noted and they received a formal request three days later. Similarly, Sweden had been waiting for a formal request to send a military cargo plane with three complete GSM systems, water sanitation equipment, and experts. The Netherlands offered help out of the island Aruba in the Caribbean Sea. Cuba offered to send 1,586 doctors and 26 tons of medicine but this offer was rejected.'

1500 doctors or empty 1500 prisoners onto our shores?

A lot of folk would have feared looting more than the storm.

If they evacuate then the chances of being looted is 100%. If they stay the chances of being killed is only 90%... a traumatic numbers game. What would you do?

If the looters can get in and presumably move their booty out then why are the "authorities" having such a hard time getting in and moving relief commodities in the opposite direction?

Something stinks and it isn't the death and destruction.

If the decent, and hard working folk get out, and leave behind the looters, then yes, they get looted, but the upside is that 90% of the looters get eliminated. Sounds like OK odds to me. I figure most people get part of what they deserve in life. The others rebound, even though they have been dealt a sorry hand.

I have dealt with looters...they tend to be neighbours.

I agree with kramarat's first post. Look at that population curve! God or Mother Nature will create a massive kill off of man kind. It is just a matter of time.

At this time it is not practical to build all structures to withstand 200 MPH winds plus micro-bursts.

We would also have to protect against earthquakes, floods, fire...and find a way to evacuate up to millions of people, quickly. That won't even happen in the US.

If it were doable, we'd be bringing San Francisco up to code. The big one is coming...we just don't know when.

Engineers can only build things better. Better buildings can only do so much. Ultimately we need to realize we are a very fragile life form simply at the mercy of mother nature and learn to get the hell out of the way.

Ok, so lets learn to engineer things that do get out of Mother Nature's way when she has a headache. In my part of the world, the predominant soil type is sand, but the current building style is a lazy thin concrete floor with footings around the edges to hold up the double brick walls until the 5 year structual building warranty finishes, then you have to worry. By contrast, I live in a 60 year old wooden framed home on stilts, (admittedly clad externally in painted asbestos), but it has the 'give and take' to ride out earth's hiccups, unlike the new trend in thin concrete that can break up.

Also in my part of the world to go with the sands is the 100 year river flood warning, not to forget the 'rising tide' implications. There are more than 150 homes that are earmarked to go under in our 10sq km local government area. So if you believe that with the average mortgage lasting around 35 years, at which time the house is due for a rebuild, then surely this is the time to 'evolve' to a better design. And in my part of the world, it could be a home with a thicker concrete floor and turned up edges .... so it floats.

So now we consider Katrina, Sandy, Haiti, Haiyan etc, consider the banking link to the life of the housing structure, and devise appropriate building forms that balance up the monies available (by whatever means) to the on the ground resources available. Example: There could be a smart elongated scaffolding clamp that can hold together bamboo in a structure that is a few feet higher above the water than the previous generation shelter. The shelter's integrity may hold together in substantially stronger winds. And if the structure fails, grow some more bamboo and reuse the scaffolding clamp. And to pay for it, each mobile phone call made by the family residents has a percentage that goes towards a self-financing banking fund, that can even include 'credit' against future demands.

And that smart elongated scaffolding clamp, yes, that makes royalty money for the engineers that designed it, then make and sell it. And yes, like LEGO, more variations on a common theme can come along that do more and work better ... and it could all be done by us engineers and a phone company in a typical project management package.

And the floating structure with the multiple water cleaning, battery recharging and comms services, plus the large LED entertainment, education, warnings guidance and advertising system, that is the new town square and the helpful public face of the project management package.

To prevent people from dying in these events, all that would really be needed is a structurally sound, coffin sized containment unit, that floats.

They could be made fancier and more high tech, but an individual sized box would be a lot easier to design and mass produce than giant boxes in the form of buildings, and they could withstand a wide range of disasters.

Edit- These look helpful:

http://www.designboom.com/design/noah-emergency-capsule-for-tsunamis/

Here's another:

http://www.mysupershelter.com/info.php

All that is necessary is to get the hell out. That's the cheapest alternative there is.

Wait one damn minute!

Isn't indonesia one of, if not the largest Muslim country?

Well if Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have enough money for terrorism........

Lets see that religion of peace in action.

Why is it always the Catholics who are first on the scene helping?

Don't these folks spend their money trying to kill Americans?

Send money?

I THINK NOT!

Sorry folks, accountability is a bitch.

WTF?

One would think, but moving 100s of thousands, if not millions of people from point A to point B, is a logistical nightmare.

Plus, it would only be good in a hurricane event; completely useless for tsunamis, earthquakes, tornadoes....

Even with a hurricane, the place of impact isn't known until 24 hours out at the most. That's a lot of people to move. In the US, it could include much of the entire eastern seaboard.

Yes, both solutions look good. Thanks for the links. Join them together and you have a 'home village structure'. Finance their wide distribution through something like a percentage of mobile phone calls that the users make in their normal lives.

So how do you tackle the San Francisco 'big one' that is said to be coming? Some say 'planning and design' and 'shake down real testing'.... and the answer is?

Wait for the "big one" to come, clean up the bodies and debris, and start over.

One of the reasons these tragedies happen, is that most people never imagine that it will ever happen to them.

Here in NC, lots of people think it's cool to stay on the beach and "ride out" a big storm or hurricane. I'm not one of them.

Not true Kramarat, Back in 92 we managed to evacuate South Florida, including Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Coconut Grove, Homestead AFB, Florida City (both of which were completely obliterated by the storm) and Miami Beach ahead of Andrew, which BTW is one of only two cat. 5 storms to hit the US. The National Guard estimates we moved over 3 million people in 3 days. It can be done my friend, all it takes are people with vision and resources to get the job done.

Sure it can, but I don't think it's accurate to suggest that the people in South Florida are representative of the bulk of the US population, when it comes to hurricane preparedness...as we witnessed in both Katrina and Sandy. People in Fla know the deal.

It can be done my friend, all it takes are people with vision and resources to get the job done.

I suppose government can be of help, but the most important component, (IMO), is that each individual take on responsibility for keeping themselves safe, and getting themselves and their children out of harms way. Staying put and waiting for government to prevent tragedy, or waiting for them to ride to rescue afterwards, is foolish. It's been proven time and time again.

I have to agree with the points you made. I did not know about the US READY website but now doing my little bit to see if something so obvious could be done in Australia on a national basis. (There are various separate agency initiatives on a state by state arrangement). (I became a 'Californian' so I could complete the online www.ready.gov sign up.)

And yes, I do have the 3 day kit with also a fuelled genset and the regular stuff. Point well made about being prepared starting with oneself.

OK, so how do we 'engineer' NGO's like the Red Cross / Red Crescent to make 'the 3 day family umbrella' an overnight global initiative? Will it need Walmart worldwide to sell the kit with say 40% content populated, (effectively good for a day), and then consumers can complete/replenish the kit when time/budgets permit?

There is a precident for the kits, namely the Royal Flying Doctor Service in Australia and their Medical Chests. It was adopted more than 70 years ago. Remote medicines were 'standardised' in a medical chest and the use could be guided by suitably qualified people using two-way HF radio. The same could be done with the suggested kits. And if a single channel radio receiver was included, (maybe with an epirb emergency beacon return path), then at least you can find out where the kit is and dig it out of the debris as you hear .... "Smoke on the water" by Deep Purple?

Lobby your local representative. Waste of time...but might get a news byte.

Better yet, there are a LOT of "survivalists" which have formed into groups. Google will help find them. They are NOT conspiracy nuts or idiots... they just believe that you should know how to survive. There a hundreds of web sites with advice.

Lets face it... It would trouble me to hammer a hole in my roof to get out of a Katrina style flood... but to put an axe up there would not be too difficult! Do it now while you still remember.

Ok, a few things to consider.

1. New Orleans is not rebuilt, it is only 20% recovered and Gray tours Lines is still doing a brisk business giving Katrina disaster tours. Still! Today!

2. There are towns in Colorado that are still cutoff from the rest of the country due to the flooding last month.

3. Large sections of the New Jersey coastline are still untouched and unrecovered from Sandy and will be for years.

No One came to help us. Although I will give Cuba props for sending aid to NO after Katrina. They did more than our own government in the first five days.

I know the images are heartwrenching. Human suffering always is if you have a heart. But lets not forget, these are some of the wealthiest nations in that region. Their leaders sat back in safety and comfort in their palacial estates, miles from danger, and did absolutely nothing to help their own people.

NOTHING!

They knowingly left millions to die in exposed coastal regions. They made no effort to evacuate the most exposed and vulnerable. They made no effort to even warn people of the danger so they that the people might have a chance. (Your three day bag does you no good without adequate warning folks) No they literally left them ignorantly unaware of the danger. In simpler terms their own govenrment left them to die without a single twinge of guilt And now they want us to care about the people they abandoned.

You should provide links when you make claims like that. It's hard to believe that the government did absolutely nothing.

Is it time to stop trusting anything the AP says?

http://o.canada.com/news/philippines-storm/

I think the truth lies somewhere between "the government did absolutely nothing" and "people should be singuarly/family better prepared". And the contribution by we engineers could be to highlight the shortcomings at BOTH ends of the spectrum and get involved (on a fee paying basis) where practical.

The Philippines is somewhat "blessed" by location (on the ring of fire) and a myriad of languages (not the singular Spanish that I thought they relied on), so communication from the outset is a challenge. Maybe a solution is more info graphics and annimation on local TV to get around the language barrier as a starting point.

But it would seem that a better model for government supported by smarter, robust infrastructure (that's where we might make a contribution), could foster more self help programs, even on a user-funded basis. (See previous comments about effectively using popular mobile phone use as a way to automatically store away the emergency personal funding).

It was said that a lie is halfway around the world before the truth gets its trousers on.

Maybe the government should just broadcast that there is free iPhones and and food somewhere deep inland.

However, I think that you are right. The biggest issue for me is that as a society we are cultivating an atmosphere that the government is always going to be there for you - cradle to grave. That's the price of politics, but it really doesn't serve the people very well.

The initiative that needs to take place is a message of more self-reliace and self-responsibilty. Beyond that we should be helping our neighbors. Unfortunately, that message does not cement power for those that rule, so it is not very well broadcasted.

I still think that message should be distributed and maybe more people need to join the Boy Scouts! Their motto is "Be Prepared!"

The people can ALWAYS be better prepared. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy that sooner or later things will go pear-shaped and a LOT of people will ignore preparation. First, eliminate people. Second, trying to ignore government results in idiots surfing during Hurricane Sandy. Listen to the right people...they probably have your best interests at heart. The Philippine government moved a LOT of people.

No doubt many of the people that did not move told authorities...."hey, its okay, we have ridden out fifteen storms in the last twenty years, this is just one more." I mean, do you need to pack them into paddy wagons? Is that right? Did not think so.

I find the flaw in ignoring government is that people by and large are prey to a hundred influences, many of which are stupid. The government legislates pasteurized milk, road laws, building codes and a host of other things which are actually good for you. They have accountability. Unlike, say Jenny McCarthy. I cannot see what would happen if you simply said...Its okay, you can use your discretion to build a deck, or plumb a house.