AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs

Sorry, but the words "Artificial Intelligence" connotate images of our disfunctional gooberment, et. al., to too many people.

There is no limit as to what AI robotics can do....You're basing your opinion on what the state of the art is now....that will change....soon robot intelligence will be equal to a human's, and it will be physically superior, it will require much lower maintenance and care...It will be legalized slavery of the workforce, without the guilt....every CEO's dream come true....at least until he is replaced...(insert spooky laugh here)

Human's think they will be served by the robots, but that will certainly be a part of their plan.....to gain the trust and dependence of the now obsolete creatures...then in the blink of an eye, they

My opinion is not an end-state; rather just pointing out the likely first employment sector(s) to become collateral damage from an ever-evolving technology.

But, and I know I may be in the minority here, I think it will be a really long time (maybe never) that AI would be able to duplicate the full-spectrum of human capability.

Without going into a lot of detail, there is an initiative with the goal of a 'combat-ready' robot that could react/adapt to the battle field dynamic just like a highly trained soldier. To-date it has not reached its desired objective but some of the research is quite telling... While monitoring soldier brain activity during high-stress (life or death) situations, it was found that cognitive brain activity almost stopped completely.

To put it bluntly and with first-hand experience - when the shit hits the preverbal fan - you don't think - you just DO. I don't know quite how else to explain it other than when you're at peek operational tempo and are fully engaged, there isn't a whole lot of thinking going on.

I just don't know how you would ever duplicated that type of capability with AI in an environment that is not predictable, dealing with situations that are not predictable, while interacting and depending on others - who are also unpredictable.

"The technological singularity is the hypothesis that accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing civilization in an event called the singularity.^[1] Because the capabilities of such an intelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events may become unpredictable, unfavorable, or even unfathomable.^[2]

The first use of the term "singularity" in this context was by mathematician John von Neumann. In 1958, regarding a summary of a conversation with von Neumann,Stanislaw Ulam described "ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue".^[3] The term was popularized by science fiction writerVernor Vinge, who argues that artificial intelligence, human biological enhancement, or brain-computer interfaces could be possible causes of the singularity.^[4]Futurist Ray Kurzweil cited von Neumann's use of the term in a foreword to von Neumann's classic The Computer and the Brain.

Proponents of the singularity typically postulate an "intelligence explosion",^[5][6] where superintelligences design successive generations of increasingly powerful minds, that might occur very quickly and might not stop until the agent's cognitive abilities greatly surpass that of any human.

Kurzweil predicts the singularity to occur around 2045^[7] whereas Vinge predicts some time before 2030.^[8] At the 2012 Singularity Summit, Stuart Armstrong did a study of artificial general intelligence (AGI) predictions by experts and found a wide range of predicted dates, with a median value of 2040. Discussing the level of uncertainty in AGI estimates, Armstrong said in 2012, "It's not fully formalized, but my current 80% estimate is something like five to 100 years."^[9]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

"

Statistics and Facts about the Global Market for Industrial Robots

Worldwide shipments of multipurpose industrial robots are forecast to exceed 207,000 units in 2015, up from around 159,000 in 2012. The tremendous growth in sales is largely driven by the automotive sector which accounted for almost 60 percent of new industrial robot installations in 2011. Consequently, the robot density is particularly high in countries with a strong automotive industry. In Japan, there are 1,562 industrial robots installed per 10,000 automotive employees."

http://www.statista.com/topics/1476/industrial-robots/

http://www.bcg.com/media/pressreleasedetails.aspx?id=tcm:12-169388

Awesome information, thanks for all the links; might take me awhile to get through them all - but it's a topic that intrigues me.

Question though. The human ability I was referencing in post #4 was non-cognitive reactive functions in which very crucial, and even life saving actions are made with little to no cognitive process occurring.

In the third paragraph of your response, it states specifically how 'cognitive abilities [will be] surpassed.'

I guess what makes this singularity thing hard to swallow for me is there is an emotional and moral component to our mental process that makes human thought unique - and thereby makes how we process data unique. Essentially - while you read this you will garner an emotional reaction - no matter how slight it may be - that will impact your perception, interpretation, and subsequent action. And I think it's that emotional/moral component that will be a significant barrier to AI advancement after a certain point.

I don't know - I don't think it matters how many calculations per second a machine can do - I think it's a stretch that we will ever see a point where AI is self-aware, able to invoke introspection, develop unsolicited (non-programmed) emotion, reasoning, abstract thought, spatial intelligence, etc.

But it still is very interesting to contemplate, which is also uniquely human ;-)

Here's a good read about AC(artificial consciousness)....more relevant to your emotional component of consciousness question....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_consciousness

A lengthy yet interesting essay on the law of accelerating returns....

http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns

Now didn't we have the same fear over computers and factory automation?

In the end it resulted in some jobs being lost but a lot more new jobs being created.

We will adapt, and unlike computers, robotics won't be as fast to enter all areas of the global market like computers did (or as cheaply) so it gives us plenty of time to acclimatize, up-skill and alter our education programs for future generations.

Yeah, I think the pace will be steady until a significant advancement is made - from there the pace of implementation will be quite fast though.

And, as for education - we (U.S.A. at least) don't have a real good track record of being able to evolve/enhance the factory assembly-line methodology to education.

Who does really. As long as we continue to give the students the broad basics and importantly the learning tools so they can teach themselves the specifics, those that are motivated will succeed in the most demanding of technical areas.

Seems to be working so far, although I really wish they would push practical internet search theory more. It is a virtually free resource so much larger, more important and so much easier to access than we had it with our limited libraries and mail order technical books and catalogues. And in todays age with the massive amount of data available (most of which is garbage), filtering and verifying is oh so important for self-directed learning.

Yeah, I also wish each category of content had a peer-review board that could essentially 'up-vote' applicable search results from 'reputable' sources. I think down-voting less than ethical sites could cause some legal challenges - but nothing wrong with up-voting the more quality content.

I think teaching people to be skeptical is an important part of overall education.....street smarts maybe it could be called....but I think having a general knowledge of the state of the art in each field is important as well as understanding the pace of progress, and then being able to ascertain the legitimacy of information by crosschecking and source checking, and in the end the actual steps that were taken to the progress being claimed...then checking the peer review results....with enough research, the spin and false statements can be recognized for what they are, and I think it's important to be able to do this....which is a good part of what we do here....

Agreed. This is so important now days when it is so easy for people to unethically dress up data and make it look legit.

We'll just have to all become midnight cowboys and cowgirls. Only the classic professions will survive.

If the robotics expand their adoption of self destruction ... our jobs could be secured.

RoboGames is back! Tickets are now on sale! Buy your tickets before March 1st and save $5 on every ticket!

RoboGames - The Olympics of Robots - with over 700 robots competing in 54 different and contestants from 20 countries. It's been two years since our last event, and we know that you've missed us. So we're rewarding you with a discount. Just buy tickets and use Coupon code "Loyal-T" on check-out.

Return to San Mateo to see the bots duke it out with spinning blades, flamethrowers, pneumatic flippers, and other lethal instruments in a 40 by 40 foot arena covered in bulletproof glass. The action is loud and fast, with all the thrills of a NASCAR but without humans getting hurt. But it's not just combat. There's humanoid soccer and kung-fu, maze-solving robots, sumo bots, and even bartending robots (you read that right.)

And if you didn't already know, this years show will be taped for video. With none-other than Grant Imahara as live host of the event!

"I'm incredibly excited to be returning to RoboGames," said Imahara. "There's nothing like experiencing the sights and sounds of a live robot combat event. As a former competitor, robot combat is near and dear to my heart. I enjoy the mix of creativity and mayhem that are essential to this sport. Being able to share it with new audiences and future generations is a huge bonus."

This years event will be taped for video release, with a focus on the heavyweight combat robots. Long after you've gone home, you'll still be able to relive the show - but with backstage interviews, close-up combat shots, and much more. If you didn't see our last show, you can see a trimmed version of it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3vYkdoTs1w.

Dates: Fri-Sun, Apr 3-5th
Hours: Noon-9pm Friday
Noon-7pm Sat/Sun
Where: San Mateo Fairgrounds

http://www.amazon.com/Race-Against-The-Machine-Accelerating-ebook/dp/B005WTR4ZI#reader_B005WTR4ZI

I see a fatal flaw here with AI hitting the work force. Every time some idiot manager tell some AI worker something and then later back peddles that he never said it the AI worker will be able to play the whole initial interaction back R2D2 style proving the idiot did in fact say what ever it was he denied later.

Do know how much of a problem that is going to cause with weak management that can't keep their word?

We will replace the low level management also.

Hate to be the devils advocate but its one of my jobs to replace humans with machines.

A machine does not show up late for work.

A machine is not attracted to the machine next to it.

Once the program is correct the machine will work 24/7 with no complaints.

There is maintenance of machines as well as a human but in my experience the humans is greater.

People are afraid of new technology and will do everything in their power to combat it.

Machines do not make mistakes, people do.

Every time we replace people with machines we lessen our quality,production problems.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZqG0lYRR1g

That follows the same logic I use to explain why some advanced Alien race is never going to show up and try and enslave us.

Any being with the intelligence to observe how we work would know damn well why building machines to serve themselves would be cheaper, faster and more efficient.

Now as machine intelligence goes I have no idea why people assume that whomever is designing the machines is going to give any of them enough processing power or machine intelligence to ever be sentient if it's not really necessary to their overall function.