Seeking the Golden Goose

I'm sorry to disappoint. Who doesn't bow to pick up one cent, isn't worth a dollar. There is something less than a million dollar, that can change the view of the world. All these technologies together can contribute to provide, but not replace the demand in global power. Did you see a golden goose ever?

A good one would be if all the coal was suddenly rendered non flammable.

That's a brilliant title.Black Swan Event I like it

Now, what would one do if one would have a similar thing breeding in ones pond. I'll tell you what I'd do: keep it as secret as possible and feed it with what nourishes best. That is a hard act to follow, I know, just keeping it alive I mean. Breeding them comes next and involves collaboration with others, unavoidable really.

Gosh, I have so much work to do and so many parts to be put in the right places doing the right things at just the right time with so many variables it is not funny. The next "Black Swan" is just around the corner and it will not be recognized as such straight away. They never where, not now and not at any other time in the past.

The platypus is another one of those evolutionary freaks and when it was first discovered every one thought it was a hoax. We have to be prepared for the unexpected, even nowadays or even more so, Ky.

"... in terms of energy economics or materials..?"

In my opinion, a pending 'black swan' for renewable energy will be coming from the new materials technologies, including CNT or other nanocomposites and metamaterials. The design control of energetically important features means that the new materials have the potential for vastly improved efficiencies in renewable energy capture, energy conservation, and possibly new energy storage materials or designs.

I agree we should be pleased to accept the incremental improvements to the technology that come along, as (probabilistically speaking) lots of R&D has to be done for the 'outliers' or black swans of the lot to emerge from the set of possible designs.

For those among us that have read R. A. Heinlein's work, I have four words: Douglas-Martin Power Screens.

People expect miracle events, "Black Swans", and instant gratification. We as engineers know that those things rarely happen. Instead people work for years, often unappreciated and underpaid, to develop new ideas. The world ignores them until they produce something that can make a big impact. Then suddenly the world discovers them. Although the new technology has been cooking for a long time, it is an "improbable and unexpected development with explosive impact". So your next black swan is probably percolating away out there already, waiting to be discovered. Unless it dies from neglect before it is discovered.