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New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

Posted August 19, 2010 9:59 AM

From EurekAlert! - Breaking News:

Scientists can now study climate change in far more detail with powerful new computer software released by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The Community Earth System Model will be one of the primary climate models used for the next assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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#1

Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/20/2010 8:56 AM

"...study climate change in far more detail with powerful new computer software ..."

More powerful does not necessarily mean more accurate.

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/21/2010 4:28 PM

Excellent point.

Let's go back to engineering by abacus. No more accurate than a PC. And all that bothering to try taking into account possible variables we've gleaned over the last 100 years or so just slows the development process down. Who needs that, right?

The ancient Egyptians sure didn't get where they are today by sitting around trying to advance their predictive modeling. So what if a pyramid fell over from time to time and crushed a few people? It's the same thing with the climate. If it falls over somebody will just build a new one. No problemo!

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#8
In reply to #2

Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/23/2010 9:27 AM

I do not advocate going back to the simpler days of abaci and slide rules. Just because a new and more powerful computer simulation comes along does not make it better or more accurate. The only mention of accuracy in the article is this one:

" To verify a model's accuracy, scientists typically simulate past conditions and then compare the model results to actual observations."

There is no mention of how well this new and more powerful simulation predicts performs. It's great to account for more detail and in theory do so should yield better results. The devil is in the details, if the model has a flaw and is not thoroughly validated, then environmental, political and scientific endeavors will be misplaced. Also, the model will only be as good as the data it's fed. If such data is tainted (whether from poorly located sensors or as part of the data selection process) then no matter how good the simulation may be, it will spit out garbage if decent data is not fed in.

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#9
In reply to #8

Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/23/2010 12:34 PM

GA, JB

I seek truth and facts, I accept the hard truth even if it is against my personal theories, this is the foundation of science.

Spacecannon

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#3

Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/21/2010 5:55 PM

Greetings All,

I find it interesting that we are basing public policy on and unproven belief, climate does change, but for the human race to affect the climate on a large scale would take more than most realize. For example if everyone, (every human being on earth) stopped any and all CO2 or GHG production it is esimated that it would equal less than a weeks worth of gasses belched from any single volcano on the plant and there are a dozen volcanos erupting at any time around the globe all year long. The CO2,GHG, global warming argument is based on a false premise. And yet there is an apparent global conspiracy to spend billions of dollars to prevent it. The Green movements leaders spoke and their belivers took it on faith just like a religion, and they have become fanatics on the subject. THINK FOR YOURSELVES, INVESTIGATE, FIND THE TRUTH

Was the whole theory based on a study of Venus done in the 1970s, I can see how CO2 could cause the greenhouse effect on a planet where the CO2 levels ARE 2000 TIMES GREATER THAN OURS, there is no valid argument to compare our CO2 situation to Venus', hence there is no valid argument for global warming, sounds to me like the this argument is over.

Spacecannon

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#4
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Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/22/2010 5:31 AM

I find it interesting that people look at an article about scientists trying to develop a more accurate climate model which among other things includes the ability to incorporate variables on so-called greenhouse gasses and conclude that it's merely a propaganda tool of the shadowy Environmentalist Overlords.

Is this new model perfectly accurate? Certainly not. Is it in some way biased? Who can say? But to dismiss it out of hand and instead rely exclusively on the climate prognostication abilities of Stumpy Bumford's trick knee seems unwise.

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#5
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Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/22/2010 9:03 AM

What I find interesting in the article is the attitude that this new model will now allow the predictions to be accurate, and that it will let them address issues like the shrinking of certain glaciers. ...The implication being that the previous model was a load of bs.

The problem with any computer model is making sure you have good data to feed into it, otherwise it's just 'garbage in, garbage out'.

So, uh, ohh...

And double uh, ohhhh...

I wonder if this new model will explain why some glaciers have grown?

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#6
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Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/22/2010 6:55 PM

Guest,

Really, I dont even have to read between the lines, to see the biased wording of their press release, thats why I'm call'in em on it. They have an alterior motive and are biased from the start, using it to proove their opinion.

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#7
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Re: New Computer Model Advances Climate Change Research

08/23/2010 3:12 AM

Hello Pink.

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