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Did Boeing Get It Right?

Posted October 06, 2011 7:00 AM

Late in September, All Nippon Airways turned Boeing's 787 Dreamliner into commercial reality. The company began its program opting for fuel savings over speed. However, by breaking new ground on so many fronts - from new composite construction techniques to less thirsty engines - the company suffered some bad press along the way. Most glaringly, the launch-to-delivery cycle grew from a planned 49 months to 89 months in the end. Even so, the aircraft sets a high bar for future aircraft designs - from a business as well as technology perspective. Did Boeing get it right?

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#1

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 12:21 AM

YES!

Not only did they get it right. They got it right despite an anti business administration. Despite corrupt unions. Despite everything...............THEY DID IT!!!

WE DID IT!! Not just the US, but the UK. Rolls-Royce engines. HELL YES!!!

THIS IS THE BEST AIRPLANE EVER CREATED!!!!

The news of our demise has been vastly exaggerated.

I hope.

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#2

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 12:45 AM

Arthur Koestler famously said that "If the creator had a purpose in equipping us with a neck, he surely meant us to stick it out."

Boeing team has done America proud by creating 787 Dream Liner by sticking their neck out and has come out with a daring design successfully baptized under fire .

I have little doubt that 787 will be creating a bench mark just as T Model Ford and Douglas DC3 Dakota aircraft did earlier.

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#3
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 12:50 AM

They thought of everything. It actually makes me want to fly somewhere.

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#4
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 1:24 AM

Just like iConic Steve Jobs, the team Boeing is sending out strong signals of the core strength of America.

Knowledgeable people are certain despite great difficulties America, because of its core strength, will rise like the mythical Phoenix from the ashes.

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#5
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 2:05 AM

This is not something that can be assumed. Thanks for your support, but I have no intention of rising from the ashes.

If our government can't do it, then the American people will. We have no interest in leading anyone. We just want to live. Just like you. In Freedom.

The masses will ultimately determine the fate of humanity. Not the elected officials.

Ask the Romans

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#17
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 4:05 PM

yep, Boeing stuck their neck out..................again

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#6

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 3:54 AM

I still prefer metal over composite. I will fly 747 until I have no choice.

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#7
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 4:09 AM

That's just pure crazy. You must be an old dude. Go on youtube and watch the tests they've put this thing through. I truly believe that this plane puts everything before it to shame.

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#9
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 7:38 AM

Yep, I'm an old dude of 71.

Metal will indicate a problem before it catastrophically fails.

Metals are homogeneous, composites are not, but layered. Metals are more predictable.

You can test FRESH composites all you like, but get them up there for long periods of time with extreme UV, ozone and cold, with chemical reactions (like concrete) not yet complete ...,

and tell me what are the tests that will be carried out regularly to ensure the composites have no problem. Metal is easy to check visually and instrumentally.

Remember how to clean up a propeller that had dings along its edges? Try that with composites.

Military aircraft with composites have a short life, so we haven't really tested them as fully as 30 year old metal commercial aircraft that have travelled millions of miles in extreme conditions.

Remember the McDonnell jet (L1101?)with the undetected sand grain inclusion in the engine compressor, where the compressor fan shattered and cut thru the control hydraulics? That will be one kind of problem that may happen. And ALL aircraft structures fatigue, no exceptions.

My suspicion is that we will have to accept composites as items that you can't recycle, and must dispose of after a certain period, or number of flying hours. Also there will probably be no warning prior to catastrophic failure. This has happened locally with buses carrying carbon fibre cylinders filled with compressed natural gas.

Yep, I'm a cynic. I probably won't be here to see how it pans out. Good luck!

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#12
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 9:23 AM

No hard feelings. I'm a little biased. I just saw a documentary on this plane a couple of weeks ago. History Channel, Discovery, or something...........I can't remember. (BTW 71 isn't necessarily old).

Anyway, they subjected this beast to extremes that would never occur in real life. I'll put up links if you want me to.

It's an incredible machine!!!

Beautiful too.

Every person...................and country, that was involved has reason to be very proud.

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#18
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 5:40 PM

Please put up the links.

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#22
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/08/2011 10:59 AM

Sure:

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787family/news/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvEMgmirldc&feature=related

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner

There's more. You'll see in the wiki article that the tail section is not made from composite, but aluminum.

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#33
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

11/21/2011 9:20 PM

Mixed metaphors. Do you mean the MD-10/11 ? Or do you mean the Lockheed L-1011 ? Initially similar looking aircraft - tri-jet.

In my opinion the Lockheed product was better, but it broke the company.

The DC-10 had been in production over a year before the first L-1011 rolled off the Palmdale California production line. Lockheed was unable to make up the ground they had lost to McDonnell - 9 years - in providing a longer ranged aircraft!

Lockheed initially estimated they needed to produce 300 aircraft to break even, the figure actually proved to be about 500 - but they only built 250. In the end Lockheed lost US$2.5 billion on the TriStar project and the experience buried them in commercial aerospace. They stopped commercial airliner manufacture in December 1981.

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#32
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

11/21/2011 9:15 PM

There's not many 747-8i's on order. Still fewer 747-400ER's built (Qantas has them !).

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#35
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

11/21/2011 9:42 PM

An update to my 747-8 post.

During the first day of the 2011 Paris air show Boeing has pulled in 50 firm and five conditional orders for the passenger version, With 17 fresh orders for the 747-8 Intercontinental, in addition to some 70 orders for the 747-8 windowless freighter. IE 55 passenger (-8i's) and 76 freight (747-8).

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#36
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

11/22/2011 8:14 AM

I hope it works out for them. Of course we won't know for sure for another decade, but after looking at the testing that was done, (I'm sure the tests that I saw on line were a very small percentage of the actual tests), I feel confident that they will perform as promised.

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#37
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

11/22/2011 8:29 AM

Boeing have a long history of making gutsy decisions that have ultimately paid off big time. I would hazard to say that going by past performance there's a pretty good chance that they've got it right again.

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#39
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

03/05/2013 8:41 PM

All those stress wrinkles in the old metal ones always give me the shivers while looking at them out through the terminal glass. I keep wondering if this time is it's last time...

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#8

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 5:10 AM

I sincerely hope that they did but it is too early to make sweeping statements. The Model T and the Dakota have the advantage of history so we can see the influence they have had.

The Dreamliner has just entered service. There is a lot of experience of composites in military jets, but none come close to this size. Ten years of flying will tell us the fatigue life, and if it does not stand up, Boeing has produced a dud. Rolls went bust in the 90's with massive overspend on developing the RB211, which later proved to be one of the best aero engines ever built. Delays and overspend in developing a product have little correlation to it's future success. After ten years we will know how reliable the new engine design is.

It is just a pity that the first planes in service are for Nippon Airways, not an American or British carrier.

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#10
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 8:20 AM

Why? ANA has always been one very good customer of Boeing's.

Your a real gambler are you not?

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#34
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

11/21/2011 9:26 PM

Rolls went bust on the 4th February 1971 due to under estimating the development costs of the RB-211 tri-spool engine.

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#38
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

01/24/2012 4:40 PM

You wrote: "Delays and overspend . . . . . . . . have little correlation to it's future success"

I wish I could view our government behavior with such optimism.

Laughing Jaguar

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#11

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 8:47 AM

I think Boeing may have got it right on design criteria and probably design execution, and the plane looks great. It remains to be seen whether composites have the kind of usable life metal aircraft have had.

I still have serious doubts about the supply chain they established, though. Remember that some of the major delays were due to supplier issues. Assembly is taking place in Washington and - maybe soon - South Carolina, but huge composite components like the wings and wing box are made overseas. I am still surprised Boeing did not retain more control over such critical components and I expect to hear about more delivery delays due to supplier problems in the future.

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#13

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 9:48 AM

Any aircraft that can handle crosswind landings as easily as this definitely gets my vote of approval.

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#14
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 10:13 AM

Nice. I feel quite confident that no one is going to be reverse engineering and duplicating this plane any time soon.

Another tiny test.

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#15

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 11:41 AM

I am with Phaddy, I seem to remember when the plastic tail or rudder fell off a jet over NYC. Plastics are fine in some situations, but it does not seem wise to use them as structural aircraft parts. Jets fabricated of metal have been in service for 20 years and we see large scale airframe failures due to stress and corrosion. These newer planes will likely be in service for much longer. With this new type of construction, I don't think we know what we do not know.

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#16
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 1:08 PM

Man............I thought I was cynical.

{edit}

You may be right. I found an expert.

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#19
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/07/2011 11:02 PM

And once upon a time wings were spruce and covered with canvas

We learned how to handle flying aluminum by flying aluminum.

Composites have been flying for years and years, carbon composites for years; we have made mistakes and corrected them.

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#20
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/08/2011 7:20 AM

"I am with Phaddy, I seem to remember when the plastic tail or rudder fell off a jet over NYC."

This is true except the investigation found that the failure of the tail fin was caused by a series of rudder reversals performed by the co-pilot in an attempt to counter wake turbulence from a 747 that had taken off immediately prior to the aircraft that crashed.

Further investigation found that it wouldn't have mattered what airliner he had been flying because the sudden rudder reversals would have torn off the tail fin of any airliner in service today.

By the way, unlike light aircraft in large airliners the rudder is only meant to be used when the aircraft is travelling at very low speeds. At climb out speed the correct procedure to overcome roll is to use the ailerons and only with no rudder input at all. Also at low speeds the over wing spoilers are linked to the ailerons and assist them by reducing the amount of lift the wing you are trying to drop creates. This also creates extra drag on that side and counteracts the secondary effect of the ailerons thus negating the need for the use of the rudder unless you are travelling really slowly down near the stall speed.

Another point that is worth mentioning is that composites like glass, Kevlar and carbon fibre reinforced plastics have been used in the construction of gliders for over three decades now and to date there has been no sign of fatigue problems occurring with the composite materials, unlike metal gliders which have a finite life expectancy on the airframe.

Admittedly when composite gliders first came into use there was a limit on the airframe as they didn't know what would happen with fatigue, however, over the three plus decades that have now passed they have found that when a composite structure is properly treated to date there have been no signs of fatigue problems. That doesn't mean that in another 30 years we won't find that there is a problem but the point I'm trying to make here is that the is an awful lot of experience with composite structures in aircraft out there and so far fatigue has not been a problem.

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#21
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/08/2011 7:33 AM

Commendably explained!

The importance of carrying people by allying their concern on high tech areas hardly need to be emphasized.

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#23

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 12:38 AM

There's another gamble that Boeing is taking with the 787 that hasn't been discussed in this thread and that is that it's design is based on what is called point to point airways system rather than a hub and spoke system that the Airbus A380 is based upon.

Basically Airbus with their A380 is gambling that we will keep flying the same way we do now with large numbers of people flying between major hubs then transferring to smaller aircraft that fly in a spoke fashion to and from those major centres to and from their starting/final destinations.

On the other hand Boeing's 787 is designed to fly directly from where you are to where you want to go without stopping at major hubs. To get such a system to work three things need to happen:

  • Firstly an open sky system needs to be established where aircraft can fly directly from anywhere to anywhere rather than along defined jet corridors and defined waypoints. This is starting to happen but isn't there yet as the way air traffic control works needs to change to be able to handle a tangle of flights going every which way.
  • Secondly you need a smaller far more efficient airliner that can be filled with the smaller point to point passenger loads. Remember with airliners bigger is generally more efficient but only if you can fill the large aircraft with passengers. This is what the 787 is designed for.
  • Finally you need a different navigation system that doesn't rely on ground based radio beacons that define the specific waypoints that the current system uses. This we have with GPS navigation coupled with inertial navigation systems, but the current air traffic control system doesn't cope well with point to point flights.

So, who's got it right? Airbus who are betting that we stick with the same old relatively inefficient hub and spoke system that requires passengers to change planes at central hubs and hopefully connect with their spoke flight. Or have Boeing got it right betting that passengers would prefer to fly directly from their departure point to their destination on a smaller more efficient aircraft and that an open sky flight management system will become available.

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#24
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 7:47 AM

With the Euro in meltdown and the Dollar under severe pressure from the US balance of payments, major changes to the air traffic control system in the foreseeable future are not on anybodies agenda. Boeing conceived the Dreamliner prior to the financial crisis, and the changes you describe were being discussed at that time.

All very long term projects rely on assumptions about the future. Boeing now has to to convince airlines that Dreamliner is substantially cheaper to operate than Airbus alternatives, and hope that China or India do not develope their own civil aircraft industries within the next 15 years.

Dreamliner wins on fuel costs but loses out on passenger capacity. Maintenance costs will swing the balance and as yet these are unproven.

China has a big military aircraft industry and too many military aircraft for it's current needs. They will have to do something about this spare capacity.

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#25
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 9:07 AM

It all depends on the airlines. Basically the technology is there it's just a matter of rethinking how it's used and revamping the software that the Air Traffic Control computer systems use. If enough airlines put enough pressure on the governments then they will more than likely work out how to implement an open sky system. An interesting point is that until the late 1960s the US used pretty much a point to point system/open sky system. The change to hub and spoke came with deregulation and probably had a lot to do with the increased amount of air traffic but it shows that a point to point system can work albeit with much fewer aircraft, which is ultimately what the 787s about.

In Australia it's unlikely to make a difference which way things go due to the population being centred in about 8 major cities so we already fly a pretty much open sky and the low population doesn't require the use of high capacity aircraft. However, there's a lot of interest in the concept of a re-engined more efficient B-737 which I'm sure would be snapped up quickly for the domestic routes.

As for the international routes I've heard that Qantas was having trouble with its A-380s on the trans pacific route. One of the reasons they purchased them was that they would be able to fly the west coast US to Australia routes without a refuelling stop, however, with a profitable load of passengers on board the range drops off faster than was originally calculated and they either have to have a refuelling stop or fly with the aircraft half empty. Last I heard was that while Airbus and Rolls Royce work on the problem they have reverted to using b747-400s. Then there was last years uncontained engine failure of a Qantas A380 that cause substantial damage to the aircraft and was considerably more serious than most people were lead to believe.

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#26
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 9:48 AM

I think the level of comfort on this plane should be mentioned too. Part of the reason I hate flying is because I feel like I'm climbing aboard a cramped, stuffy, dirty, city bus.

The list of things they've done to make the whole experience more comfortable is pretty impressive too.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1295886/Boeings-787-Dreamliner-promises-make-jetlag-air-sickness-thing-past.html

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#29
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 1:00 PM

Despite the economy we (he says looking over the fence into the neighbor's yard) have hit a point of converging technologies that I think is going to drive free-flight.

Manpower for traditional air traffic control is going exponential.

Technology for ground-based and air-based conflict detection is maturing.

Massive funding pouring into drone use is driving desire for drone operation within the US national airspace, which requires the second above.

Successful experiments in Australia and in the Alaskan FIRs with GPS based ADS sourced tracking are paying off.

Recent divergence in technology adoption on the part of the FAA has put US carriers increasingly at odds with European airspace.

All of these have converged to bring funds to the FAA to reinvigorate the early work into FANS / Free-Flight / CNS/ATM (pick an acronym appropriate to your entry into this work).

I also think a generational change has shifted the FAA's thinking on these subjects. A decade of experience with GPS navigation has proven the military isn't going to just turn it off, and the aircraft are equipped to handle it if they ever did.

Now if Congress will quit rushing to sell off our spectrum haphazardly (see LightSquared and GPS).

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#31
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 10:07 PM

Great work masu.

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#27
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Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 10:45 AM

Thanks to you and masu for high quality contributions.


Regarding China or India developing civil aircraft, I can assert with confidence that India definitely is in no position to be a significant player in the near future, but China is going hammer and tong to develop Boeing 737 type aircraft, how successfully only time will tell..

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#28

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 11:32 AM

I hope so.

Way to soon to tell. Boeing's ROI won't be known for at least 10 more years at the earliest when the history of retrofits and design revisions are known and the extent, if any, of FAA mandated Airworthiness Directives are studied.

AirBus' introductions proved premature and may prove to be it's undoing.

Catastrophic rudder failures and bulkhead failures on aileron servos have caused a lot of litigation and bad press.

I'd sooner be over budget and behind on delivery than defending myself in court.

L. J.

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#30

Re: Did Boeing Get It Right?

10/09/2011 9:59 PM

Different strokes for different folk

Different planes for different purposes.

All of these very new designs where many items are highly advanced are a risk because they enter unknown territory, I remember when the Comet was considered a "Wonderful" plane and a great advance until it crashed into the Mediterranean. There have been others.

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