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Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

Posted March 22, 2012 7:42 AM

From ExtremeTech:

In Sweden, just 3% of the economy is powered by coins and paper money. Public buses don't accept cash, churches have installed card readers to take donations, and there are even some bank branches that refuse to take your money, opting instead to deal with electronic transfers only.The European average is 9%, and in the US, the credit card motherland, the percentage is still more than twice that of Sweden: 7%. If you stop and think about it, though, none of these figures are particularly surprising. With the rise of credit cards and store cards (and card readers everywhere), PayPal, online shopping, iTunes, Netflix, and app stores, cash is feeling more outmoded by the day. When was the last time you used an ATM, anyway?The trend is very clear: Cash is on its way out. It might take another 10 or 20 years for Sweden to get there, and longer for the US and other economies, but eventually so few businesses will accept cash that it will be relegated to jangling jars and cruddy sofa crevices. Governments will have no choice but to halt the fresh minting of coins and printing of bills, and eventually non-electronic money will dry up all together.ChangeThis will mark one of the most significant paradigm shifts in modern history. At some point in the future, probably within our life times, you will wake up and your cash will be worthless. After centuries of use, we will no longer have a fungible currency. Gone are the gold sovereigns and silver dollars and nickel-alloy pennies - it'll all be encrypted, digital bytes, stored in programs like Google Wallet. Instead of handing the shop attendant some cash, you will swipe your phone across a card reader; if you need to lend your friend some money, you'll just key in a number, bump your smartphones together, and NFC will take care of the technicalities.I think this will all happen naturally and fairly painlessly. Just 50 years ago, cash (and gold bullion and shares and bonds) would have represented the entire economy - and now Sweden's on the cusp of killing cash off entirely. It's just a matter of convenience - and if consumerism has taught us anything it's that convenience is king. When we're fast moving towards a world where your smartphone replaces just about everything in your wallet - from cash to tickets to ID - how can clunky coins and grubby banknotes really compete?Sentimentalists will mourn the demise of bills and coins with national figureheads emblazoned on them, I'm sure, and there will also be an issue with older people, who in general haven't made the leap to electronic money and would be lost at sea if cash was no longer accepted anywhere. Beyond that, though, there's a far more pressing question that governments (and societies) will have to answer: Will we let private corporations track, collate, and cross-reference every single one of our transactions?You see, in a cashless society every single payment is digital, which means that every transaction must be confirmed by the bank or institution that governs your money. In turn this means that every move you make will be recorded in a huge database. Your bank will know where you get coffee in the morning, the route you take to work, and if there's a vending machine at your office it might even know where you work. Likewise, your bank will know that you like to buy things on Amazon while you're at work, that you enjoy watching X-rated movies when you're on the road, and that you always leave it until the last moment to buy your wife a birthday present.At this point it's commonplace for self-respecting libertarians to leap up and decry the awful, privacy annihilation that I've just described. How could you live in a world where the Rockefellers can track your every move?! they cry. Well, get this, every credit card company, bank, and sizable corporation already tracks your transactions.Have you ever had a call from your bank, asking if a purchase you just made was fraudulent or not? Banks employ incredibly complex software (on beefy computers) to analyze billions of transactions - ostensibly to detect fraud (which costs banks millions of dollars a year), but of course other patterns can be detected as well. Just as one example, BillShrink has worked with 2,000 banks to analyze your buying habits, and then to provide targeted coupons on your monthly statement. Obviously it's rather cool to automatically receive a $5 voucher for McDonald's if your bank detects that you spend $100 under the greasy shadow of the Golden Arches every month, but it's a little bit creepy too. It is, after all, exactly the same as Google or Facebook's targeted advertising - but possibly even more accurate.Next page: Fortunately, there's an alternative

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#1

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/22/2012 5:33 PM

How much of the current economy leans on the rural areas? There is not a lot of card readers over there; people buy and sell with the money on their hand, the same goes in the city for the most various and uncomon merchandises and services, think of whatever you want, sex, drugs, hitmen services, home-made burgers, garage sales.

Paying for commodities in a refugees camp or a shelther for an entire comunity after a natural disaster.

I know it sounds bad, but that is the real world and will continue to be for all the generations to come as long as we don't mutate into some other species.

Mr. X in the year 12000 will have to secure his transportation or could get it stolen...

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#2

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/22/2012 11:05 PM

I seriously doubt the percentages quoted in this article preview. One can certainly measure and count all forms of electronic currency transfers. But not every exchange of goods and services can and should be tracked electronically. Besides the obvious criminal activities fed by hard currency, there are also the honest exchanges of barter that will stay well below any statisticians radar. Then there's also the honest, but frequently preferred anonymous exchanges of tipping. None of these transactions will be fully covered by any form of traceable money exchange. There is a need and use for hard currency.

Let me take the articles own example, Sweden. According to the CIA, Sweden is the 34th wealthiest economy with a $379.4 billion Gross Domestic Product (in US dollars) for the year 2011. With 3% of this economy being powered by coins and paper money then about $11.4 billion of this economy is estimated as currency driven. Since Sweden is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, this currency percentage of 3% is likely a very low percentage compared to most of the world economy.

For millennia people around the world have criticised and complained about "bean counters". One has to look no further than Jesus casting out the money changers in John 2:15 for proof of this. At the same time, economists, statisticians, accountants and many others jokingly abused with the term "bean counter" fill a much needed niche in all societies. When they stray outside of their needed field and try to apply their arithmetics outside of this field is when they become a "bean counter". I believe this article was written by a "bean counter" that has again strayed.

(My apologies to the CR4 administration for the religious quote. I believe that it is appropriate.)

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#3

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/22/2012 11:21 PM

So if we go to cashless societies, governments can create all the 1's and 0's they need in their computers to pay for anything and everything they want?Yeah, go ahead and turn in all your gold and silver. I'll just hang onto mine.

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#4

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 12:30 AM

When paying cash there's no transaction fees. Debit and credit cards are certainly beneficial for the service provider, and banks in this regard... not quite as good for the consumer other than the convenience. The fees and interest adds up quick.

Ever try to buy something when the power goes out, even with cash?

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#10
In reply to #4

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 5:56 PM

More than just avoiding fees, most countries maintain a very robust black market. These are the markets where no one wants any trace on the exchange of money. It can be illegal things such as drugs for money, or it can be a trades person who offers a big discount for payment in cash. The trades person avoids the Mastercard/Visa fees of 2 to 5%. And yes, the vendor is always paying fees for your privilege of use of these cards of convenience and extra charges are usually applied to the cost to cover these fees. He/she may also be avoiding paying taxes on undeclared income but I would never ask. Its too risky to insinuate the service guy may be shady when dealing with money and revenues. Besides, he/she offers a great deal. You can often negotiate a discount for cash even with honest vendors. cash will be around as long as a black market exists.

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#5

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 2:56 AM

After all, money is just information; in itself it does not have a value.

Besides what the article mentions there are other alternatives, anonymous ones, and I found them quite interesting.

http://openmoney.org/

enjoy

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#6

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 6:22 AM

if consumerism has taught us anything it's that convenience is king

A bit like TV dinners and fast food chains ? One day the lifestyle and diet will bite people in the ***. Cashless society is about as likely as Star Trek becoming reality. It will, and is, happening, but not to the extent implied.

The figures quoted seem to refer to economy as a whole. Bank to bank transfers etc. 9% cash exchange in Europe ? For the average person shopping it's close to 9% cashless.

The majority of the world's poulation don't have electronic cash systems. At the risk of mentioning religion, accepting the mark of the devil in order to transact will not be accepted by a great many. Not my bag, but I know how often automated transfers get messed up (Brit's may enjoy a giggle whilst thinking of our 'Direct Debit Guarantee' system - not worth the paper it's written on).

Items of scarcity will always have value that can be exchanged. That's why coinage periodically changes - to balance material cost with nominal value. Banknotes work on trust. Not very good, but it's trust you can have in your pocket.

One electronic blip could crash worldwide economies. That's why it will never happen wholesale.

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#7

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 6:44 AM

Well, since red already broke the ice, is it too far of a stretch, to imagine doing away with cards and card readers, and simply implanting an RFID chip in our right palms.

These could be used, not only for money exchanges, but medical information, personal information, identification, etc.

We would probably be told that these devices will make our lives easier, more convenient, and most of all..............they will make us safer.

http://www.gotquestions.org/one-world-government.html

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 8:44 AM

Only fools put all their eggs in one basket.

Because, you (group of people whatever size) is then only one power grid collapse away from chaos and mayhem.

Because, you (I mean YOU in person) are only one keystroke away from wiped out of existence. Be it intentional, malicious, accidental, natural event, etc. When your card, or embedded chip is not accepted anywhere, who are you? This is identity theft scenario, writ large.

You have any doubt left? Not too many years ago an extra large solar flare induced damaging power into the canadian power grid. The Ontario part was out for weeks. Would you like to be cashless there??

There are emergency preparedness plans for this and that. But, what kind of preparedness is this??

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#9
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Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 9:02 AM

I'm aware of this. I put up the link, not to start a religious conversation, but some of the correlations are spooky.

Personally, as in ME, I think that any attempt to move to an entirely cashless system will fail. Enterprising people will move to a form(s) of currency that is completely out of the hands of government and government control. A good example would be the use of candy and cigarettes as currency in the US prison system.

I, as in ME, would be one of those people. All of us would be subjected to the cashless system to some extent, but I believe that a tangible monetary system would also emerge, that would be completely out of the reign of government. These already exist to some extent. Goods and services are traded with no legal currency trading hands. The IRS is also hot on their tails to get what they consider is owed to them.

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#11
In reply to #9

Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 7:48 PM

I am quite vary of utopians with their simple (more likely simpleminded) schemes. Coinage, and later paper money developed repeatedly in many places of the world to cover a real human need. And based on real human iudgements. I, for one, consider our ancestors not any less intelligent, simply less informed. They needed something solid to hang onto, as theirs, with some value.

As it happened, there is a precursor to the cashless society on a traiectory to implementation: electronic medical database.

These are its salient characteristics:

You do NOT own your data, the state does.

You do not have access, nor the right to correct. An unspecified large horde of buerocrats have unlimited access.

You do not grant access to it, the state (buerocracy) does.

Can they modify, delete? To be determined later. (you bet they will!)

And the designers expect you to sit placidly, and simply to take it. That would be the first time in human history.

And some more, that does not come to mind right now.

If you want to get a lungful smell of sulfur, apply these rules to the envisioned cashless society. How does it stack up?

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....But the simplest things are the most difficult to execute [right]. Clausewitz

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#12
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Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 8:17 PM

I think we are agreeing. Unless some massive unchanges take place, things are going to get very interesting indeed. Not in a good way.

Our ancestors had something more important than book knowledge.......................they had wits and common sense...............on a personal level.

Those are things I fear we may have lost..................or are in the process of losing.

I also think that the people that are in charge, (on a global level), not only know that they have caused it, but are powerless to stop it. They continue to kick the can up the road and pray that the blame for our eventual undoing will fall on someone else.

I've got news for them.........................it's too late..and it won't matter who is to blame.

Their useless words and empty promises have become the norm..................we are at the cusp of having the majority believe them. Once that corner is turned, it will mark the beginning of the true end.

We have turned the planet over to people that are weak..............in every sense of the word.

We will all ultimately pay the price.

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#13
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Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 11:04 PM

I am much more sanguine - on historical timescale, if not necessarily yours and mine. But the ride might get mighty rough in the meantime.

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Those refusing to learn from history, are compelled to repeat it. Santayana(?)

Now, what does that tell you about the smarts of the "smart" people??

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Re: Surviving the Cashless Cataclysm

03/23/2012 11:20 PM

The "smart" people aren't talking.

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