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10 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time

Posted August 18, 2013 3:19 PM

From Science News Headlines - Yahoo! News:

In the technology world, bold predictions abound, and they should. Placing big bets in one direction or another is how this industry works. Some pundits try to make educated guesses about where tech is headed, while others prognosticate in reaction to disruptive technologies that could boost (or threaten) their business.

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#1

Re: 10 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time

08/19/2013 8:52 AM

Some people still laugh at this prediction, but it's actually becoming true:

Who Needs a Home PC?

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." - Ken Olson, president Digital Equipment Corp (1977)

The vast majority of 'computers' these days aren't actually computers, they're communication devices. Mobile phones, tablets, pads, kindles,... even the majority of desktop and laptop PCs aren't actually used for computing. They're used as communication devices.

I use Mathcad on my 'computers', and I actually do use them to compute. There are probably a lot of engineers and scientists here on CR4 that use Excel and other programs to 'compute'. Maybe some accountants also use theirs' to compute. But I bet if you asked the average person on the street how often they 'computed' anything you just get a blank stare as a response.

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Re: 10 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time

08/19/2013 1:10 PM

Agreed. And that begs what question(s)?

I doubt the statement by Ken Olson was based on understanding and leap-frogging the whole process we've gone through. That (1977) was a time when the whole idea of a marketable PC was impractical and, therefore senseless to most computer manufacturers. When it finally did happen, I'm sure most other computer companies watched with rolled eyes, to some extent, thinking the idea a misread of the common man. Which makes your observation, full circle in that way. The masses probably never really did want to compute. They just wanted the practical fruits of others computing. Does that compute?

(And I still prefer a landline, only using a cell for emergencies. Just think of all the new words invented to accommodate technology!)

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Re: 10 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time

08/19/2013 1:46 PM

Yeah, I'm keeping my landline, too. The sound quality is much better than the best cell phone I've ever heard, and it only costs me $12/month. I get free unlimited local and long distance calls, caller ID, and warnings of severe weather from the county emergency management system. I also need to use a conventional fax machine every once in a while for my consulting work.

Besides I need a wired connection anyway for my DSL. - Which I use for my TV, too.

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Re: 10 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time

08/21/2013 12:35 PM

Still takes a lot of computing to run those communication devices, even if it is only converting analog input to 1s and 0s.

Until the cell signal can penetrate the walls of my house I guess I'll keep my land line. And there are some things I just don't want to communicate over open airwaves, maybe not over any other means than face to face. If I'm going to be spied on I at least want it to take some effort!

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