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Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

Posted May 24, 2008 8:25 AM

It seems like the medicine may be working; the U.S. metalworking sector is spending on new equipment it will need to remain competitive and, by implication, giving global machine tool vendors something to smile about as well. Within a month of the investment stimulus package announced by President Bush, U.S. manufacturing technology consumption jumped more than 80%. Is this the start of a sustained, investment-led recovery for the machine tool and metal working industry?

The preceding article is a "sneak peek" from Machine Tools & Metal Working, a newsletter from GlobalSpec. To stay up-to-date and informed on industry trends, products, and technologies, subscribe to Machine Tools & Metal Working today.

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Anonymous Poster
#1

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

05/25/2008 12:08 PM

Well, What I can tell ya' pal', in my mode$t opinion ( "Non-Rocket Engineering or Doctorate" ) here but it will be more of a long term treatment agenda anyhow at thi$ point, even after aggre$$ively intensive care performed. See, to me thi$ patient ha$ $ome few complication$ due $ome malpracticed i$$ue$ to make it wor$t and con$equential care (Budgeting) negotiation$ which falled on neglection$. So, I will recomend an aggre$$ively approach in ru$h by IV's and antibodie$ admini$tration by monitor$ and all of that for a long term treatment until it become on it's own or "Back to Busine$$ a$ U$ual". Following up monthly appointment$ and then from there a phy$ical (Fi$cal) check out every year or a$ need it.

Other than that the $timulu$ $hot $eing to kick up $ome how it metaboli$nm a$ indicate but I gue$$ it will required follow up$ treatment$ to optimize overall performance.

Good $hot$,

MC

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The Engineer
Engineering Fields - Engineering Physics - Physics... United States - Member - NY Popular Science - Genetics - Organic Chemistry... Popular Science - Cosmology - New Member Ingeniería en Español - Nuevo Miembro - New Member

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#2

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

05/26/2008 9:43 PM

Ha! Here is an article that paints a more complete picture (see link). There is, of course, seasonality in the U.S. manufacturing technology consumption. The index is up 36% from March 2007 levels, but to present an 80% increase as being the result of the stimulus when much of that increase is due to seasonality is pretty irresponsible. A more relevant statistic is that consumption in 2008 is up 18% as compared to consumption up to the end of March in 2007. That's a nice uptick.

Here's the best part, the stimulus checks didn't start arriving till May, so how is the stimulus arriving in May responsible for an increase in machine tool spending in march? I'll tell you how, it isn't. A weak dollar coupled with strong demand overseas has supported this industry, for the moment. However anyone who believes that 25% of the worlds demand (the U.S.) can go into a recession and the rest of the world will continue to grow unaffected doesn't understand economics.

http://www.qualitymag.com/CDA/Articles/Industry_Headlines/BNP_GUID_9-5-2006_A_10000000000000339366

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Anonymous Poster
#3
In reply to #2

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

05/27/2008 8:27 PM

Gosh it does a nice WebSite definetly I did check it out and it does make a lot of sense. I going back to that WebSite to keep on reading some more since there are a lot of data to explore agree. Thanks Roger and all of you Master$ here at CR-4 you have the technology. It does a good relief in knowing there's some kicking up 18% compared to last year season. As pointed out the dates between stimulus and incremental are little offset relate with events, You catch me there I guess. Allset Buddy thanks for the clue about it and I mentioned I going to check this -Quality Magazine- WebSite little deeper to find out more stuff there which seing very accurate by the way. Thanks to all again, we'll stay in contact then some how here at CR-4 Technology Mall. See ya' later Buddies. Let wait for the BEST JEEeeeh!

Downtown Time,

MC

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Guru

Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Piney Flats, Tennessee
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Good Answers: 23
#6
In reply to #2

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

06/03/2008 11:37 PM

If the U.S. went into recession then pirces would drop for all the other countries and they would increase their demand. The U.S. demand keep prices high.

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The Engineer
Engineering Fields - Engineering Physics - Physics... United States - Member - NY Popular Science - Genetics - Organic Chemistry... Popular Science - Cosmology - New Member Ingeniería en Español - Nuevo Miembro - New Member

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

06/04/2008 12:36 AM

You are failing to consider the time delay between when US demand stops. You see, this is how it works. US demand drops, inventories build, then prices come down. Right now we are in the inventories building stage. You can't get rid of trillions of dollars of wealth (in property value) in the US and not have a recession.

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Anonymous Poster
#4

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

05/29/2008 10:47 AM

To be the fair, the blogger may be talking about the tax incentives for manufacturers installing new equipment (faster depreciation) rather than the stimulus checks being sent out to the masses.

If you want to learn more about what is happening with machine tool sales in general and within certain vertical markets go to www.gardnerweb.com/forecast/tools.htm. There you can see my forecast for machine tool units for 2008 and what is happening in the major end markets for machine tools.

Steve Kline

Market Analyst

Gardner Publications/Modern Machine Shop Magazine

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Anonymous Poster
#5
In reply to #4

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

05/31/2008 12:12 PM

Great Job Steve, Yeap you have the picture there and seing a great work report from your part. Surprisinly to me the numbers for the Engines and Wind Turbines staying kind of in the low growth. Whether I would expect more faster growing having such energies issues and barrels prices keeping going skyhi by day now. Unbelievable! Also the one showing an steady state growth through the difficults times being on medical arena, good for them. But Obviously since as more difficulty times raised then more health related issues raised with it, so it does show a logistic results obviously, unfortunatly again some how. Some how bad for some but good for others, relative again and sad in part, I will say.

But, after all, Machine Tool together with Metal Industries showing some good indication I believe for a kick up near future I feel, seing like it. Good Deal.

All set, Steve keep up the great work and monitoring those indicators for us as seing that obviously know that stuff very well pal'. I will keep on reviewing those logs are they seing very interesting to follow for sure.

Very important to have a feel how things are moving around to stay aware then.

You Have the Technology,

MC

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Guru

Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Piney Flats, Tennessee
Posts: 1740
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#8

Re: Investment Stimulus Package Paying Off?

06/25/2008 5:49 PM

Well do you still think it is working???

Exactly how much national debt can the USA stand before it must declare bankruptize?

How much before the U.S. Dollar is equal to the Mexican Pesco, we are alomost even now with them. Now CAFTA can work. Mexicans can freely come and go along with many from central America.

Next is the South American Free Trade but now they have so much oil and gas these countrys no longer need the USA and they are not about to allow the Bog Oil Companys back in to take their natural resources and pay only pennys for them anymore. Our robber baron years are going away fast now all around the world. The only way to keep the robber baron mentallity going is to invade countrys like Iraq or Iran. One day the Saudi's might not be safe.

What is the CIA doing down in Paraguay training militias? On Daddy Buish's 99,000 ac ranch? Building a military base to kjeep terroristr out?

All those little countrys taking their natural resources away from our Corporations is not right. Who are they anyway just peasant they have no rights to the natural resources of their country. We are stronger so we take them right. lol

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