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45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

Posted October 21, 2008 12:59 PM

From TreeHugger:

Architecture 2030 is at it again with their great graphs, this one showing what a minimal impact the 45 nukes proposed by McCain will make, but it is a bit deceptive... The production and transmission efficiency of electricity is roughly 33% as shown on the graph, wasting 33.2QBtu while generating 15.1QBtu. That may or may not be true (I thought it was more like 50% efficient, and my first reaction was that they were piling the total energy produced on top of the total energy consumed making and distributing it, which would be graphically incorrect). However the graph distorts and minimizes the impact of the contribution of the proposed nuclear plants by by piling their delivered output power from the nukes on top of the current delivered output AND the production and transmission losses instead of just comparing it to the delivered electricity. The 1 QBtu is a 6.6% increase in delivered electricity supply; displayed this way on top of all of the production and transmission losses, it reads visually as a 2.02% increase. I think that the McCain plan for 45 nuclear plants is unnecessary and probably impossible, that we can make it up in efficiency, and am a huge supporter of Architecture 2030. However this graph is designed to distort, to minimize the impact of the nuclear plants and make it look much like the graph showing the impact of offshore oil drilling that got so much play earlier.

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The Engineer
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#1

Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/21/2008 3:36 PM

It's funny, people laugh at the thought of extraterrestrial life, yet if you understand the scale of the universe, it is virtually impossible that 100,000s or civilizations don't exist right now. They may not be close by enough to communicate with, but they are indisputably out there. People promote Ethanol as a solution where there isn't enough arable land in the world to produce 10% of our energy consumption today, meanwhile energy consumption is increasing exponentially.

There are many more examples where a persons inability to comprehend scale allows them to be misled by their "common sense". This article is a great example of why fission is most certainly not the answer.

Fusion is the answer, but we have to fund it, and that isn't happening right now.

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/22/2008 1:50 PM

"...yet if you understand the scale of the universe, it is virtually impossible that 100,000s or civilizations don't exist right now. They may not be close by enough to communicate with, but they are indisputably out there."

So lets say there are 5 Septillion planetary bodies in the universe, or is my scale still too small? Now multiple by whatever teeny tiny percentage you want and abra cadabra we just proved by probability the existence of enough ETs to make your head spin around the sun. Your task was so easy, I'm ashamed for ever having been an unbeliever.

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/22/2008 2:50 PM

You Wrote: "So lets say there are 5 Septillion planetary bodies in the universe, or is my scale still too small? Now multiple by whatever teeny tiny percentage you want and abra cadabra we just proved by probability the existence of enough ETs to make your head spin around the sun."

You said lets assume Five Septillion planetary bodies = 5 x 1024 planetary bodies = 5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planetary bodies

I believe you got your number above from the estimate of 5 planets/star * 1012 stars /galaxy * 1012 galaxies/universe (source)

Lets call it 1022 to be conservative. so if we truly are the only intelligent life in the universe, that would make the odds of intelligent life being found around any star in the universe 1/1022 (1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000). HOW LUCKY WE ARE!!!

Do me a favor, pick up two dice and start rolling. Please roll snake-eyes (1 and 1) 10 times in a row. If you can do it I'll take back what I said. I think that's fair since it is 10,000,000 times easier to do that than for intelligent life to form on this planet, if you choose to believe that we are the only intelligent life in the universe.

You Wrote: "I'm ashamed for ever having been an unbeliever"

In all the vastness of space and time you chose to believe that we are the only life adept enough to wonder why. Only a man with eyes closed tightly shut could truly believe such a thing.

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#4
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Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/22/2008 5:10 PM

Its funny, you evolutionists laugh whenever someone comes along and discusses the origins of life in terms of probabilities, yet there is no need for debate on this issue because you've proved your case by probabilities based upon dearly held assumptions that you have come to by your interpretation of the "facts". Your scientific sensibilities amaze me. It must be nice to live up on the mountain.

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#5
In reply to #4

Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/22/2008 9:31 PM

What is an "Evolutionist"?

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#10
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Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/23/2008 11:32 AM

Main Entry: evo·lu·tion Pronunciation: \ˌe-və-ˈlü-shən, ˌē-və-\ Function: noun Etymology: Latin evolution-, evolutio unrolling, from evolvere Date: 1622 1: one of a set of prescribed movements2 a: a process of change in a certain direction : unfolding b: the action or an instance of forming and giving something off : emission c (1): a process of continuous change from a lower, simpler, or worse to a higher, more complex, or better state : growth (2): a process of gradual and relatively peaceful social, political, and economic advance d: something evolved3: the process of working out or developing4 a: the historical development of a biological group (as a race or species) : phylogeny b: a theory that the various types of animals and plants have their origin in other preexisting types and that the distinguishable differences are due to modifications in successive generations ; also : the process described by this theory5: the extraction of a mathematical root6: a process in which the whole universe is a progression of interrelated phenomena

— evo·lu·tion·ari·ly \-shə-ˌner-ə-lē\ adverb

— evo·lu·tion·ary \-shə-ˌner-ē\ adjective

— evo·lu·tion·ism \-shə-ˌni-zəm\ noun

— evo·lu·tion·ist \-sh(ə-)nist\ noun or adjective

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/23/2008 11:47 AM

That's great, but the definition provided was for Evolution, I wanted to know what an Evolutionist is.

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#12
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Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/23/2008 12:25 PM

There are numerous definitions depending on the book or group doing the defining.

NOUN 1. evolutionist - a person who believes in organic evolution, ie the sequence of events involved in the evolutionary development of a species or class of organisms, accepting the scientific theory of biological macroevolution by natural selection or genetic drift.

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#13
In reply to #12

Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/23/2008 12:34 PM

Are their people who aren't "evolutionists"? Does that really deserve an "ist"?

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#6
In reply to #4

Re: 45 New Nukes: How Much of a Difference Will They Make?

10/23/2008 2:34 AM

I understood everything up to 'Its funny...'

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#7

Evidently Roger and others did not read the Topic.....

10/23/2008 5:21 AM

The Topic has nothing to do with planets and extra-terrestrials, or evolution either.

Just so others don't get off the actual topic.

Kind Regards....

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: Evidently Roger and others did not read the Topic.....

10/23/2008 5:25 AM

What! A thread going off topic! Never!

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#9

Early Posters should have replied to the other Topic

10/23/2008 6:48 AM

Aha, I just located the Topic under which those earlier Posters thought they replied to: http://cr4.globalspec.com/blogentry/7163/Number-of-ET-Civilizations-In-Our-Galaxy-Is-37-964

Kind Regards....

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