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From SPACE.com:
The in-orbit collision that destroyed an operational Iridium communications satellite over Siberia last week underscores the difficulty of predicting and avoiding such events despite the increasingly sophisticated orbital surveillance technology in use, U.S. government and industry experts said.
According to some experts, this Feb. 10 incident, the first known collision between two fully intact satellites - Iridium 33 and Russia's spent Cosmos 2251 communications craft - is a sign of things to come as the orbital environment gets more crowded.
"While it took 50 years for Earth orbit to become sufficiently congested that we would expect such an event, it will take only about 10 years before another can be expected," said Don Kessler, an orbital debris expert who previously worked for NASA.
"The probability of impact has been steadily going up and at some periods at an increasing rate," said John Higginbotham, chief executive of satellite control software provider Integral Systems of Lanham, Md. "We're definitely in one of those periods and I expect to see an increase in the coming years."
According to a Feb. 11 e-mail alert issued by NASA, Russia's 1,984-pound (900-kg) Cosmos 2251 -launched in 1993 but out of service since 1995 - collided with the 1,234-pound (560-kg) Iridium craft at 11:55 a.m. EST at an altitude of 490 miles (790 km). Bethesda, Md.-based Iridium Satellite LLC alerted the U.S. Air Force after losing contact with the Iridium 33.
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Re: Satellite Crash: Who's to Blame?
