Can Electrics Jumpstart Detroit?

Sorry, but throwing money at Detroit will not change the situation.

100,000 hybrids is a very tiny fraction of the total vehicles sold. Hybrid sales do not generate revenue. I doubt that they pay the engineering cost.

The Chevy Volt is a very neat vehicle, but I can guarantee you that sales will be lower than hybrids. You can tax this nation to death and funnel billions of dollars to Detroit Michigan, but nothing will change except huge parking garages will be popping up all over to store hundreds of thousands of hybrids and electric cars that dealers can not sell.

The whole problem with Detroit is that there is a huge disconnect between what the government mandates they must sell and what the general buying public wants!

It stuns me to see educated people completely miss the crux of the biscuit when it comes to why Detroit is where it is. There are two primary reasons why, actually three:

1) The big three are mandated to build a percentage of cars that people do not want to buy.

2) The economic downturn has shut down the demand for cars. Even Toyota is at a loss, but they are not going extinct.

A third reason for Detroit's woes is the cost of building vehicles. The Auto Union is causing a huge loss of profit with wages and benefit demands that are out of scope. Since the Auto Unions are a powerful government lobby there is little hope to see a significant change.

I understand that the government wants us to drive more efficient cars, but the public just doesn't want them. Go look at the ten top selling cars for 2008. Hybrids are not on the list.

Either the hearts and minds of the people must change or the government mandates must change. I see little hope of this administration doing anything else but making the situation worse. Buy the time this administration is done and the EPA has their way two (if not all three) of the automakers will be government owned and run and producing even more vehicles that people do not want. The next step is to increase CAFE standards for all imports disproportionally to attempt to level the playing field between imports and government built vehicles. Then begin to tax gasoline at ever higher rates. Finally, the government will impose taxes on older vehicles or simply a limit as to how old a car you can drive (like Japan does now) to force people out of the cars they want to keep and buy cars they don't want to own.

In the end, Detroit will become government owned or supported at the expense of those that pay taxes.

I should add in response to your question in the title text, "Can Electric's Jumpstart Detroit?"

Absolutely not. The current state of the art does not compete with current technology (gasoline engines) in performance or in cost. Even factoring savings with respect to cost of electricity versus a gallon of gas it will not do it.

Even if a sudden break trough in battery technology just magically appears it will take years to test, build, and deliver to the market. Look how long it took to develop the Volt and that was on a crash program. Even if that magic battery was available today, it will still take years to redesign the cars to use them and the production lines to build them along with the infrastructure to keep them running. Meanwhile Detroit will continue to slide into oblivion.

I can't imagine any auto executive really expects to turn around the company by replacing the gas engine with an electric one unless they are smoking something really good.

I was never a fan of Hybrids due to the additional equipment cost usually cannot be recovered by the fuel mileage increase over the lifespan of the vehicle.

However one fascinating capability that the carmakers choose to ignore is that a Hybrid already has the required equipment onboard to make a really awesome power generation system. This can be used for powering a weekend cottage, or storm backup power during extended outages (anyone remember hurricane Ike?).

The gasoline engine generator, battery storage and AC inverter are already onboard, and everything is handily self-propelled! The batteries will allow the engine to cycle, instead of constantly running regardless of how light the amp load. How much more convenient can you get?

If the car companies could offer AC power as feature it would be enough to make even me purchase one.

Interesting that both of my posts were marked Off-Topic. Did I miss something? I thought the topic was specifically about electric cars and will that turn around Detroit.

The problem with Detroit has nothing to do with the internal combustion engine and everything to do with and inability to compete. As GM brings out the Volt there will be competition from the other automakers as well. Chances are the competition will have an edge on the Volt because they are able to bring the design to market more quickly and thus have newer technology. The technology is being developed along several lines but it is Toyota that holds a strong patent position in hybrids. So much so that Ford hybrids license the Toyota technology. The alternate energy technology battle is already well underway and Detroit is loosing. Again.

"...Ford hybrids license the Toyota technology...and Detroit is loosing [sic]. Again."

This statement is not 100% accurate. Ford did indeed license Toyota technology back in 2004 to build their entry vehicle into the hybrid market, the Escape.

Currently Nissan licenses the Toyota Synergy technology for the 2009 Altima hybrid.

The 2010 Ford Fusion hybrid uses their own technology, and Car and Driver magazine reported it is superior to the Camry & Altima hybrid. Considering Car and Driver robotically gushes over anything foreign, this is quite a statement.

Thanks for bringing me up to date. For GM and Chrysler I would think that it is still a matter of "too little, too late."

It's meaningless for Ford, too. Ford sold the most hybrids in 2008 for a total of 19,522 vehicles.

Compare that with Ford's total sales in 2008 of 544,769 vehicles. Hybrids accounted for 3.5% of Fords sales. No body wants them!

Even if hybrid sales increased 100% it would still be like peeing in the pool (after consuming a few Detroit Growlers).

Now, if you think hybrid sales are dismal, imagine what the numbers would be for electric cars with a range of 50 miles and a battery life between 3 to 7 years?

So, better toss up a few more Detroit Growlers.

Yes, this comment contains facts and is very likely to be considered to be 'off-topic', too.

Thanks for setting them straight. Domestic producers will grab and eventually dominate in electricity; flex fuel; ... etc. BTW, GM's problems right now are mostly domestic; but China and it's billions...GM China can't keep up with the demand. Once GM completes its restucturing and its union busting under bankrupcty it will come back strongly on the domestic side, too. Ford too is set to emerge stronger under former Boeing leadership. For anyone under 40-ish, a few round lots bet on GM and/or Ford are almost a sure thing long term.

Here in the UK the government will give away £2000 to all the buyers of electric-hybrid cars! If you choose to buy an all electric vehicle they will give you £5000!!!

They are also planning to put an electric contact in every filling station as soon as the new quick-charge batteries are out into production!

Spencer.

Well, well Detroit is failing. They are failing because the good old boys are going down the drain with the "good old days" of gas guzzling fossil fueled vehicles. My contention is to let them fail. Where one door closes another opens, Let the struggling little guy have a crack at building the next door buster vehicle.

Japan has built cars that can get 30 to 39 mph, Detroit can barley build a car that gets 20 mph without going to the repair guy every 10 months or so.

Well folks I have done it, I have designed a car that never needs gasoline, oil, or a recharge.... EVER ! I am now waiting on the U.S. Government stimulus pkg to kick in so I can actually build a prototype. GM, Ford or Chrysler had the chance to hire me but due to circumstances I was born with, I did not qualify to work for them. Vendetta yes! giving the public a coast to coast limitless vehicle most definately.....keep looking at the site as I will post a video of the prototype in the near future.

I am sorry, but I would disagree. People buy foreign because of perceived value, not fuel economy.

US buyers do not care that much about fuel economy. If that were true, then why are 50% of all new sales SUVs?

Also, GM and Toyota total world sales are neck and neck. So, the number of vehicles sold does not support your claim that they are not selling enough cars nor that fuel economy is the issue.

The issue is purely profit. GM makes less profit than Toyota on a car-by-car basis. That translates to GM having a higher operating cost, principly centered around labor costs and pensions.

"Can the U.S. industry develop the technology, and will it be enough to reverse the downward spiral of the auto industry?"

I believe that the US could develop most any technology. People working in the US have developed a multitude of technologies. The is evidence of success in the past that implies success possible in the future.

Sometimes industries contract to a level commensurate with the demand.

On the one hand the population in the world will increase and demand for toys and cars is assured to increase simply due to population increases.

Factors of Finance do have strong influence over whether or not the US can reverse the downward spiral for its indigenous car companies. (Until you have things like an International Minimum Wage, nation state competition for value added creations cannot be reconciled without tarriffs and protectionist measures.)

The US market for cars is highly influenced by the culture.

In the US a car is not simply for getting to work and back, but it is an escape vehicle.

I have been up mountains in a VW Bug, and it is scary to find yourself going no more than 15 or 20 miles an hour.

Nobody in the US really wants a car that won't get them from NYC to LA.

The Electric car that will do that on at least Highway 40 from Wilmington to Barstow will succeed, regardless of who makes it.

P.S. So far we do not know generally what the great electric motors are, as we knew of something like the Ford V8, Chrysler 273, (8) Franklin, or Cleveland, not to mention aircraft engines like the Cyclone, R2800, 1830, or Lycoming. When there is a known motor that is commonly built to power we will move forward.

Volt is not the "hybrid" as we know it. Its a plug in vehicle. It run on battery and then gas engine when battery ran flat. The gas engine won't charge the battery.

US and Canada is trying to push "plug-in" vehicle as "Green" vehicle. They've completely missed the point. Those plug in take power from the grid. They'll put more load on the grid and the grid is not green at all. Unless they have a plan to move the grid to green power with higher capacity, we'll be in deep $hit.

There also is plan for hydrogen highway. To me its another hype to take tax payer's money.

To the consumers, cost is a huge factor. Its more so in current economy. Nobody want to spend an extra $3000 on a car that will pay back in 10 years. Put money in mass transit and make them green at the same time. You need lots of milage to recover the investment in current hybrid technology.

Less pollution is generated on a per mile basis with electricity than with gasoline.

The reason is that even with a large portion of US electricity made from coal, the coal plants have better pollution control than a car. Also, an electric motor is many time more effiient than any gasoline engine.

Nothing is totally pollution free, but electric propulsion generates less on a per mile basis than gasoline. That doesn't take into account recycling of batteries, but we don't really know the pollution cost of that yet.

Dear Anonymous Hero, Your writings on this subject are passionate and well informed. Further they are open minded, as your last post makes extremely clear.

As I see the situation the conflicts between the Unions, and Detroit Automakers are a touchstone conflict illustrating metaforical fault lines in a transitional period.

I myself wonder why there is such worry about car batteries when car battery recycling in the US is so successful?

Car start battery recycling is extremely successful, and a "system" in place that could well be applied to newer batteries.

-At least from what I know and have observed.

The addition of capacitors in the Hybrid mix is a good thing.

I am a Federalist, and maybe well on my way to Unitary Anarchism, with a Technocratic Branch of Government.

The Technocratic Branch of Government may well be empowered to make the best machines, the cheapest.

I myself cannot see how we can overcome the confluence of imperatives unless we make an electric road.

Whatever Detroit makes, or Japan makes, or Germany or Russia, China, or India that goes down the road, and up and down mountains, must now act like an automobile.

The only way to achieve that is to make a vehicle that has enough energy storage capacity to make it to the power feeding road.

This is obviously possible when you consider the railroad tracks that exist in our wonderful old world.

Thanks. The electric road is an interesting idea.

The problem with batteries is not going to be simply recycling, although, the number of recycled batteries will go up orders of magnitude and the chemicals invlolved probably will be trickier. We still need batteries that work in a very harsh and widely varying climate and temperature, have power densities an order of magnitude higher than current designs, and are safe (fail safe in event of accidents, etc.). We have a long road to go before we get there, but demand will ultimately push us there.

Out of the Globalspec I have seen reports of fine batteries from Electrochem. By "fine" I mean batteries providing power in extreme temperatures.

Then again if something is actually impossible, it is actually impossible, and cost is a contributing factor as far as what that really means.

On the thread about Fiat and Gold based money I have worked with ideas pivoting on the elimination of "off book" expenses, which when applied to auto companies is starkly illustrated by who pays for people who are worn out.

In Canada you get your Healtcare from the government of Canada, for instance, as opposed to in the US, your Healthcare and pension come from GM, if you work, or work for GM.

For the US based Auto Companies I would about recommend they simply move all their operations and workers that they want to Canada, for they have a working system in place, alleviating some of the mess grown like weeds within the legacy Auto building companies.

Just because I am labor, it does not mean I cannot think like the owner, and see why they have motivations to do things counter to my interests in the world that exists.

I am pleased greatly that you said you were interested in the electric road.

Chrisg288 has come up with an interesting design for such a thing. I think there are some pictures of it in a Favorite Inventions Thread Ky started.

Yesterday I was looking at a CSX pickup truck that had wheels that allowed it to ride the rails. Chrisg288s design has great potential for obviating pedistrian, squirrel, dogs and others shock factors on the electric road, though in the end I feel the electric road is really more suited to superhighway than urban tight operations.

Of late I am wondering how to put iron flakes in asphalt, and give safe power to vehicles through an insulating cover.

At this point I am in over my head for the details of all of it.