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Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

Posted June 02, 2009 8:11 AM

From CNET News.com:

While the Obama administration has expressed increasing hopes that wind power will play a key role in America's future energy system, one of the world's leading scientists is ruling out the technology. Jack Steinberger, the 1968 Nobel Prize winner in physics and director of CERN's particle-physics laboratory, spoke at a conference of Nobel laureates at the 350-year-old Royal Society in London last week.

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The Engineer
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#1

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/02/2009 2:19 PM

A remarkable article. Can you imagine if the Sahara suddenly became valuable land because of the year round sunlight? I would think that dust (maintenance) would be a bigger issue, but maybe not.

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/02/2009 2:47 PM

It may be "year round" but it isn't all day long whereas wind can be. Both have there limits and need storage and or back-up.

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/02/2009 3:01 PM

That's true, any power generation is going to need improved storage. Batteries R&D is probably a good industry to be in nowadays.

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/02/2009 5:45 PM

Speaking of electrical storage: Has anyone heard anymore about EESTOR? They have been making promises, promises for 2-3 years, but I have yet to see any tangible evidence.

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#16
In reply to #2

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 9:21 AM

The 24 hr supply of energy from the sun is through heat storage. It is stable and efficient. Wind is not.

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#5

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/02/2009 11:21 PM

Anyone with a wind generator will tell you that wind power is not the answer, AFTER they have plunked down the money to get it running. Photovoltaics are expensive and marginal at best. What solar energy (which drives the winds) does best is supply heat and light. Solar towers, both active (concentrating reflectors) and passive (vortex or channeled) will drive the attendant mechanicals (fans, turbines, steam generators) better than PV panels will ever be able to convert light into usable energy. The problem there is siting near population centers where the electricity is needed. Since most of the worlds population lives near the coast, fog and smog reduce the effectiveness of even these relatively efficient forms to capture energy. High altitude Kite generators show some promise, but I still don't think they will come anywhere near the efficiencies of our next power generating candidates. To whit:

Tidal generators are the 'wave' of the future, and recent advancements have shown that gigawatts is nothing to laugh at. Operating 24/7, they come online in sequence by location. Slack water high or low in one location means a full rip going on somewhere else, usually not more than a few hundred miles away. Our Gulf Stream runs at 5 kts. (yes, it's a little farther out than is currently practicable) and there are other ocean currents that may do as well. These generators are the least intrusive, with the highest torque values of any other whirligig. They oscillate or rotate slowly enough for the fish to evade, and best of all are moon driven, and can be near enough to coastal population centers. Fog, smog, hurricanes, tornado's, snow and ice do not affect them. A tsunami might wreck them, but then the power users are probably wrecked as well. River generators will operate constantly above the tidal reach.

I'm outta steam. Whew! So what's the consensus? Do we dump the wind and go for tidal power?

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#6
In reply to #5

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 2:11 AM

I'm outta steam. Whew! So what's the consensus? Do we dump the wind and go for tidal power?

No,we use all the assets we have. Let all electrical generation systems feed the grid, and let the market even the price for all. The least efficient will fall by the wayside.

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 2:25 AM

No,we use all the assets we have. Let all electrical generation systems feed the grid, and let the market even the price for all. The least efficient will fall by the wayside.

Sounds good, but the issue is far more complex than just efficiency. I guess it is the cost of electricity that will govern in the end, but even that is influenced heavily by CO2 levy that fossil power has to incur. Not all nations are yet committed to reducing the carbon from their power generation. Coal & Gas are here to stay for long, complimented by both wind and solar (and not forget Nuclear!) along the way to light the houses long after the wind stopped blowing and sun has set for the day.

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#10
In reply to #7

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 6:05 AM

Our new genius President just remarked that the Iranian people have the right to Nuclear power for peaceful purposes. What about the American people, do we have the same right?

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 6:35 AM

The american people just assumed that they have the right to take away rights of others. Or from where does the anti american feeling in some parts of the world originates?

What can be wrong with normal nuclear power generation? (except that it is a dangerous business if not done with the right equipment)

Iran sits on a nice pile of Uranium ore. They want to use and enrich their own natural resource.

The previous business driven US government did not accept this: if others want enriched Uranium they have to buy it from the correct company. And certainly no other country can be allowed to step into this lucrative business.

We still remember the "evidence" that allowed the Bush government to invide Irak, please not a second disaster of this scale.

It is better to keep the Iranians afriend, knowing what they are exactly doing than driving them into a corner where their only solution is: attack.

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#30
In reply to #11

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/07/2009 9:32 PM

Agreed. GA.

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#22
In reply to #6

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 9:13 PM

I agree, but I personally think we are missing a bet if we dont develop geothermal or the power from hydrothermal vents. As I see it, we are sitting on a nuclear furnace and should be using that power.

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#9
In reply to #5

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 5:03 AM

This is my first entry to this BRILLIANT site. I agree totally with TippyCanoe.. governments have been very very slow to look at tide and wave power... our own UK being by far the worst and yet having the largest coastline in Europe..? I am about to start building my own pilot wind turbine here in Scotland at 2.5 kW and if ok.. I shall invest in a total of 18 kW probably in three units. Our govt here has blown hot and cold with 'grants' for wind power to individuals. Alas, the funds er.. 'ran out' and it all went quiet. Engineers in the UK tend to be blokes with greasy overalls and a large spanner clutched in the hand, that is in the eyes of the govt.!!!!! (We know better!) Ask how many engineers we have in our parliament..? As Tippy rightly says, storage is the key to wind. I intend to try a big heat store of rocks etc. Easy I know for someone with 3 acres of nice land.. but for the cities surely some combination of rubbish dumps overlaying a huge heat store might work..?

The individual cannot really harness tides.. this is BIG engineering and should be the MOST important investment any country can make.

"Horae pereunt et vobis imputantur" (Cicero.., with a 'v' instead of an 'n')

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#14
In reply to #9

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 8:46 AM

Welcome to CR4 Limnerlad, happy to have you. I recommend the checking out the challenge question and assorted blogs which are pretty high quality.

Also be aware that we have a cat named Del here on CR4 who seems to prefer canned tuna....just in case you run into him.....

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#26
In reply to #9

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/06/2009 3:02 PM

Actually, tidal and wave power can be done on a small scale, but the results are unlikely to attract investors- much like "mini-hydro"- who wants to invest $3000 for a 1 kW system?

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#28
In reply to #26

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/07/2009 8:38 AM

Actually in west Europe there is a massive investment going on towards net coupled PV.

All these investors are small: typical 3 to 5 KW per installation.

Costs are approx €5000,- /KW

But the investor gets back his money through green energy certificates: for every amount of produced energy you get a bit of the CO2 certificate money that the big CO2 producers have to buy.

So it does exist: small investors willing to pay serious money for a little bit of energy. And they get nice money back in return.

The idea is to have approx 15 to 20% of installed power being PV. More would become dangerous for net stability. Net owners are now also investing serious money in adapting the network to be able to handle this unstable energy supply.

The idea that energy is cheap is really fading away here.

Poetin was very clear: cheap natural gas is history and from now on we will have to pay serious money for it. Europe is dependent of Russia for a serious part of its NG. Some countries even get 100% of their supply from Russia. And typically the Russians start to ask more money when we need it the most (december - january)

But what Poetin forgets is that Industry is very capable of adapting very quickly towards changing situations. so big chance that next time they close the valves that they don't have to open them again.

A part of the solution will be: forcing serious insulation and decent levels of efficiency.

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#25
In reply to #5

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/06/2009 2:57 PM

Tippycanoe-

Good to see another proponent of tidal energy here. I am actively seeking funding for a project here in Panama...

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#8

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 3:01 AM

To my opinion Mr Steinberger is getting old and doesn't see the complete picture anymore.

It is true that wind on it's own will not solve the problem.

Nor will PV or Solar thermal do.

Ocean current power generation is rather dangerous as the complete picture on how this ocean current is powered and kept flowing is not known. Will the force that drives this be able to overcome our energy drainage?

It is known that the North Atlantic current is very unstable and simple actions like adding to much fresh water can stop it for years. Guess what happens at the moment in the neighborhood of Greenland?

Tidal systems are known to be replenished over and over again. Simply putting turbines in the street of Gibraltar can supply energy to Spain, Maroc and Portugal. And if in excess the energy can be sold to the rest of Europe. (you don't have to go as far as the Sahara to find a nice source of "green" energy)

What the world needs is a hybrid system, with intelligent heat and electricity storage.

Let each house store the excess heat in the summer for winter use.

Distribute the solution not the result.

If we need to generate electricity form fuel, do it somewhere where the heat can be used. And use fuels which are unpractical for mobile use. (biogas, ...)

Global Regulation will be needed to overcome a complete collapse.

Things like: You live in this or that area and by 2015 you still don't have double glazing: you are not allowed to heat you're house anymore, might become reality quicker than you might even believe.

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#12
In reply to #8

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 7:52 AM

GA! Just what I was thinking. Disrupting the ocean currents could impact the globe more and faster than any other energy source.

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#13
In reply to #8

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 8:38 AM

I have been thinking for quite some time about how people talking about solar, wind, etc. energy plan to take energy out of our environment. Most of them do not take into account how this will change the very environment that they are trying to save in its present state. The Earth is a very complex environment and how it reacts to our "modifications" is often the opposite of what we predict!

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#15
In reply to #8

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 8:49 AM

Global regulation will be needed to overcome a complete collapse............you still don't have double glazing you are not allowed to heat your house anymore........

This is the kind of intellectual nonsense that gives me a major clog. You have the superiority to dictate the living conditions of the populace based on what authority? Don't come near my house and condemn me to freeze because you deem my weatherproofing inadequate.

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#23
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Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/05/2009 3:52 AM

yes

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#29
In reply to #15

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/07/2009 8:51 AM

We accepted certification of electrical appliances.

Pressure systems gets regular checks.

Oil reservoirs do need regular inspections or they may never be refilled again.

Service stations need special flooring and even vapour return lines.

All this is to protect the environment and humans against the risks that come with the installations.

So why not forcing a minimal level of insulation: it protects you and your family against empty wallets and polluted environments.

I admit that it will be a difficult exercise for a lot of old houses, but one day it will have to be dealt with. Or do you accept that one lonely figure continues to pollute the complete neighborhood, just because no-one can force him to insulate.

In some cities here it is now reality: when you want to offer your apartment / house for the rental market it will have to have a minimal level of energy efficiency.

The same for selling you're house: you need an energy certificate and in some countries they now announced that the efficiency needs to fulfill a minimal level or the new owner may not be able to use it as it is.

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#31
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Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/08/2009 8:45 AM

So why not forcing a minimal level of insulation:

I bristle at and reject your thought process. Forcing? Maybe you have forgotten what it is like when the government forces its opinions on its citizenry.

Your premise is that since service stations need special flooring, pressure systems need checks, etc. that it is equivalent to forcing people to insulate their homes. Electrical appliances and the rest of the examples you cite are examples of the natural evolution of technology. Things are developed and the flaws are revealed through accidents or mishaps and public safety is at risk. Upgrading technology standards are a normal process of development and we can point to explosions and shocks as a result of a need to improve the science. But what can you point to? "Global warming" which has had to be renamed "climate change"? This is far from proven and has the hint and odor of a political movement. No, you just think the poor and stupid among us need to be "forced".

Your posts rush to force people to comply with your grand vision of how people should conduct their lives. You intimate that there are good reasons behind your assertions, but what are they? How about trying some incentives for compliance like lowering taxes or maybe allowing the free market to make people see the need for insulation?

We can agree that old homes waste energy. How we deal with it is light years apart.

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#17

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 9:26 AM

Power transmission always seems to be the problem. I've read articles pointing in the direction of local power generation (whatever the source) as the future. And I makes sense.

If you live in an area with great wind then use wind. If you live on the coast use tides. If you live in the desert use sun. If you live in Greenland use geothermal.

A dynamic mixture of all green powers will eventually get us to where we need to be.

Now if we could just get rid of all of those AC adapters everyone plugs into their outlets.........

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#18

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 9:44 AM

Very interesting article

The real solution to the energy probelm will not be options A, B, C, or D. It will be E, all of the the above if we are going to keep up with energy demands. Currently there is no single viable solution to replace liquid fuels but if we aren't going to go back to the dark ages a lot of different sources are going to be needed.

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#19

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 12:23 PM

To clarify a few of the responses here. I agree that we must use as many effective and profitable sources of energy as are available. I for one think nuclear being the cheapest and most readily available power source needs to be put on line ASAP. (Lets not get into a food fight over the waste issue, been there, done that, finish reading.) I have worked in that industry and know it is safe.

Small scale river generators are being installed on a community basis, so not necessarily big business or government needs to develop massive plants.

The point about freshwater effects and global warming on ocean currents is noted, and may be a serious consequence, if we do not do something YESTERDAY. Procrastinators who want more study are why we are in this mess now.

There is no way in H we can build enough tidal plants to disrupt the ocean currents. You would have more luck containing a hydrogen bomb with a garbage can.

As each new 'Green' technology comes on line, including nuclear fusion, we are freed up to disassemble what is not profitable in monetary or environmental terms. Fossil fuels will still be needed for co-generation during slack periods or excess demand.

I have no clout beyond my immediate community. If you do, get on somebodys case and twist it.

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#24
In reply to #19

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/05/2009 3:59 AM

If we only use tidal currents there will be no issue, but the idea is to use the ocean currents.

These ocean currents have nothing to see with the tidal effects and originate in differences in surface and deep water composition.

The same ocean currents have huge impact on our climate and disrupting it has been proved to be a mayor problem.

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#27
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Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/07/2009 1:21 AM

The Gulf Stream is 100 - 200 km wide, and the path varies 30-40 km seasonally. Disrupt that if you will, and show me where the proven mayor problem is please.

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#20

Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 4:07 PM

I agree with any port in a storm. The comment about not getting energy if you don't have double glazing MAY have been a little strong, but the difference between being regulated out of existence verses starving out of existence is probably not as important AS existence.

I agree with getting on with it, but don't forget conservation pays big also.

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#21
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Re: Nobel Laureate: Wind is Not the Future

06/03/2009 4:59 PM

Conservation is extremely important. Although the most effective way to implement conservation is not thru govt actions. When regulations come out, people/companies just find ways to bend the rules, either by moving overseas, moving to a state with less strict regulations, lobbying (I really mean "bribing") to their politicians to make it so the rules don't apply to them. The best way is to not subsidize any industry at all and let the true cost come out.

If everyone has to stand on their own 2 feet you will find out who the tallest truly is.

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