The Elbow Bump?

What, a simple head nod for an acknowledgement is now offensive?

Most people cannot touch their eyes or mouth with their elbows. In contrast there are many "finger" foods, like sandwiches, where one's hand holds the food just before they eat it. Presenting a new social greeting where hands are not used, particularly just prior to eating a meal, seems like a good idea to me.

This new disease has many mysteries about it, not the least being how it spreads. This new greeting technique may not mitigate this pathogen. I'm not qualified in disease pathology to bring any authority on the efficacy of this greeting for this disease. I suspect you are equally unqualified, too.

What I have found is anyone who calls somebody an idiot before they try to understand the others reasoning is most likely themselves the idiot.

True,.. but it’s now pretty common practice to cough into your forearm/inside elbow...

frankly, I, like yourself that’s not qualified but I do have an opinion, putting a little stress on ones immune system I don’t think is a bad thing, I believe it actually strengthens your immune system.

going off topic and also a no, no. churches during the sermon that have a tradition of shaking the hands and greeting the person near you, have been suspended. I think is a good think. Last week, half of the congregation were coughing... that would be a little more then a little stress, but more of a Petri dish looking for some action.

I am not qualified in any aspect of this disease,so it must be treated with an abundance of caution.Means of spread are unknown,and coughing into the elbow is an advice given by experts in the field.I think they need to do more common-sense studies before releasing a recommendation to the public.

Put a fluorescent tracer powder on a group of people where they would normally cough or sneeze,then examine them after mingling with a control group with no tracer powder.

IMHO, I think there will be a lot of transfer,and maybe I am wrong,but this test would prove one way or the other .

Note that I did not call anyone an idiot,only that the practice was idiotic.

I should have prefaced the comment with IMHO to prevent misinterpretation

Your response was directed to me personally,so therefore,by your own definition, are you not a member of the group that you disparage?

There's the Wuhan Shake that you do with your feet. I suppose it's OK if you haven't stepped in something...

https://nypost.com/2020/03/02/wuhan-shake-greeting-goes-viral-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

This seems like a safer method to me.

Massive disinfectant sprayers deployed in China. Elbow bumps deployed in the West. It's just the flu we are told. Nothing to worry about. Everyone go back to sleep.

What's the big deal just put on some gloves....

Elbow bump or not there is an undercurrent of paranoia in this land down under.

Someone started a rumour that imported toilet paper was running out. There has been a run on the supermarkets and even rationing. COSTCO even had crowd control at one shop! The facts are that 11 of 14 suppliers are actually based onshore and represent more than 90% of normal supply and have easily ramped up production. Maybe the rumour was started by someone in their marketing division.

Heck, my first thought was "Flu like symptoms" would cause a run on facial tissue rather than toilet tissue!!!

This seems like an ideal marketing opportunity for the "Prepper" suppliers to clear some old inventory.

Next rumour?? Will power workers be unable to attend and maintain supply? Rumour for a battery or candle manufacturer to create panic demand.

All tongue in cheek. In a year or so, we'll look back and either say "Storm in a Wuhan teacup!" or "@#$$ we should have been better prepared." Only time will tell.

Yes, it's too early now... hindsight is always 20/20.

It all depends, is it paranoia or caution. In the states, the state of Washington's governor declared a state of emergency over the coronavirus.

as far as your toilet paper...

back in college, what seems a lifetime ago... for some one want to spread a biological weapon, there are two ways to best do it.

1.) innoculate dollar bills. I believe they travel quite a bit. Back in the 90's there was a fad where dollar bills where written on called 'Where's George' to track. Very controversal. I beleive it still going on.

or

2.) innoculate toilet paper. It's beleive to be very effective, where there is a lot of blood vessels close to the surface...

There is one obvious but overlooked way to spread disease:The shopping cart.

Sure,you can wipe the handles,but the rest of the cart is contaminated.

The groceries you put in the cart are brought home and put on the counter.

There is no requirement for the stores to sanitize the carts,and I have seen babies in the carts with soiled,leaky diapers dripping on the cart,both liquid and semi-solid waste.

I have also seen poultry juices leaking into the cart and the conveyor at check out.

The cart is put into the cue at the parking lot,waiting for the next customer.

The conveyor spreads it uniformly along the whole length ,making it available for the next customer to enjoy.

If an old dumb redneck like me can think of it,I am sure someone with bad intentions has thought about it.

Life has always been a risk.

the point of my post you responded to,

one is happenstance, the other is intentional

If you cannot afford to lose,you should not gamble,which is why I carry a spare tire.
A toilet paper shortage would be bad for a lot of folks,especially in washinton,dc,where the politicians are constantly blowing it out of their arse.
There are no "Sears and Rareback" books anymore to use in the outdoor toilet,but there will be corn cobs for at least a few more years.
I already have my corn crib full of them,sorted by red or white.
The red ones are used for first pass,the white ones are used for quality control.
I still have a large bore well for use with a hand pump and bucket and gourd dipper if needed.
I am not a prepper, this is just the way I grew up.
I know how to hunt,track and defend.
I have new vehicles,but I also have an old truck that still uses points and condenser,so no EMP worries either.
It has baling wire,duct tape and vice grips and a manual operated fuel pump in the tool box.
Modern tech is very nice,but not essential.
"Country boys will survive."
SMILE! It's good for ya!

"Thank you. Move along now. Nothing to see here...."

What a surprise, we are the joke of the world. Again.

Maybe,... but at least you’re not alone.

So don’t be so hard on yourself... it’ll be ok.

It may be a joke, but I don't hear anyone laughing this time around.

The South Koreans seem to have managed the lowest death rate (around 1%) with their strategy of mass testing, including 'man on the street' level of testing, vs testing people who are already in the high fatality late stages of the disease. So there's a second up side of a wide net of testing, early treatment and monitoring of cases can reduce the number of deaths.

The official from NY I saw on the news today, seemed to indicate that's the approach they will be taking - not a moment too soon, that's for sure.

There’s a positive view on this with Korea handling it differently, and that is when there’s several country’s actually doing something, working to the same goal, but through different ways going about it. There’s a better ‘chance’ of finding how the virus works and develop a vaccine.

as long as everyone share their findings.

Yeah this is interesting. We know from Wuhan, it has taken 2+ months of strict quarantine to curb the spread so there are now few new cases in China and mostly originating from outside the country.

In South Korea, they opted for mass testing instead of a strict quarantine. So freedom of movement is not inhibited but they have done 140,000 tests in a short time period to identify individuals who needed to be in care/quarantine. Just looking at the most recent numbers, they seem to be increasing faster than Iran or Italy. But is that due to more tests ie a better picture of the spread, or is it possible that this 'loose' form of containment is not as effective. IDK, but as you said, time will tell and everyone will learn from these different approaches, that is from everyone who openly shares their findings.

In the scientific community there's a very loud voice for open sharing of all findings. BMJ and many other journals have made all covid related publications accessible to all. There is information out there if a person is willing to read it, but again, scientific mindset is required not to jump to conclusions too quickly as some findings may not pan out in the long run.

Yes,.. unfortunately, this could be serious if not addressed,... but if people keep updating what going on,... some of the updates turn out to be nothing but dead ends or just plain false.

I was thinking of dead ends more so than falsehoods - some statistical correlations that are based on a smaller population or sample size, it is early work not bad work. And the virus is evolving too. I doubt and don't expect to see any deliberate falsehoods in the science. That end has been covered adequately by the politicians.

When I say false hood is similar to a dead end,... when you’re finding a solution to a problem you look at trials as paths... you take a path what looks like a possible solution, report it as a possible solution and your progress as you go along, then you come to a dead end. The progress you reported, even though it may have value, turns out to be false.

Life is full of set backs and dead ends. And everything worth solving is never easy. As I said in the post, even setbacks and dead ends have their value.

it’s a good thing scientists, engineers have a thicker skin than academia.

I agree, but I will add that, in the earliest stages of scientific investigation, every new fact gives rise to speculation. This is part of the process of generating testable hypotheses.

For example, it was discovered that the novel coronavirus binds to ACE-2 receptors in the lungs and this is the means of infection by the virus. In early work, it was suggested that the susceptibility of elderly asian males may be due to a higher expression of ACE-2 which is genetic. Cases of males of other races did not display the same vulnerability. However the number of cases for other races was not adequate to support that conclusion, which does not appear to have panned out. Other professionals have also suggested that the prevalence of smoking in elderly males in China may be the cause. Again, this is not confirmed by data but is raised as an alternate explanation. However the pattern of higher susceptibility in older males has (to the best of my knowledge) continued in other countries, while it is clear enough by comparison S Korea to Italy/Iran that there is no racial-genetic link to fatality rates. The same fact of ACE-2 binding also gave rise to the suggestion that patients on drugs such as ACE inhibitors, which increase the number of ACE 2 receptors, may be at higher risk from the disease. So far I have not seen any analysis of data to support or discount this possibility, however it is a hypothesis worth investigating.

New facts continually arise that require explanation and hypotheses to be bandied about before they have a chance to be tested. Some patients who tested negative and were released, showed symptoms and tested positive several weeks later. Were they reinfected? Probably not, but the possibility certainly made it to the news. Is the virus biphasic? Again, probably not. Did certain treatments (corticosteroids, prednisone) suppress the virus below detection levels and cause a false negative? Possible, not confirmed. Were these cases simply faulty tests? This too is possible.

None of these explanations for the apparent 'reinfection' are supported by data, however in the learning process about a fatal and spreading disease it is important to raise and consider all possibilities, including the least likely and those which may have more serious consequences. Other scientists weigh in on the probability, and at some point a 'most likely' and testable hypothesis emerges.

In the meantime, the reader of the early work (and media reports on that work) must always keep in mind that untested possibilities are being evaluated, in addition to those already supported by data. And this is a very important and legitimate part of the process.

Jumping to conclusions, that is not a part! But speculation remains necessary, we must understand and take it as such.

I read this morning that S Korea has seen a decline in the number of new cases every day for several days now, but they are holding off the conclusion that the epidemic has peaked.

It does look promising all the same.

On another thread, I had mentioned the the down tick is more than likely caused by caution, such as by washing your hands and the like. It’s still out there.

As a transplant recipient, being immunosuppressed, I am much more worried about influenza than COVID-19 at this point.

Infections:

COVID-19: Approximately 92,818 cases worldwide; 118 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 4, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths:

COVID-19: Approximately 3,254 deaths reported worldwide; 11 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 4, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Here is some good information for comparison from Johns Hopkins.

Currently there have been at least 18,000 deaths from influenza in the US this season. See Here for CDC estimates.

It is frustrating to me that everyone is clamoring about the corona virus and coming up with a vaccination. Meanwhile the flu vaccination is available, safe, and effective, and most people don't bother to get it.

It makes no sense at all to be more worried about influenza. As you pointed out, we have vaccines for that - someone in your position doubtless has taken this precaution.

Influenza is very well tracked in your country and mine (and many others). Weekly statistics by region of Canada are available to me on the internet, I can see what strain of flu A and B is prevalent, and even compare the prevalence of a half dozen other respiratory viruses commonly in circulation. So we have quite a good local knowledge of flu activity all season long. Anyone at high personal risk can take additional measures to avoid contracting the flu or a strain from which they are poorly protected, by keeping an eye on the surveillance and planning accordingly.

The fatality rate for influenza is around 0.1%. The fatality rate for covid-19 is at minimum 1%, and as high as 3.4%, overall the fatality agreed globally at this point is a bit over 2%. And there is no vaccine, and all treatments are experimental at this point. Fatality rate is highest for ages over 60 and risk increases with age and with the presence of other conditions - diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, cancer are identified risk factors.

The rate of spread is determined to be 2.28 according to news I saw this morning. That means every case that isn't contained will spread the virus to about 2 others. It is enough for exponential growth of cases if there is no effort to monitor and contain the spread.

You already have community spread in several regions of the US. These are cases that cannot be traced to travelers from an affected part of the world. In Washington they estimate the virus may have been circulating for 6 weeks, not monitored by testing nor contained in any way.

The hospitalization rate for influenza is 1.5-1.8% based on CDC disease burden estimates since 2010. For covid, about 30% of people who get the disease will be severely ill. Many of those may need to be hospitalized for care. So an uncontained epidemic is expected to seriously burden the health care system.

I have of course gotten the flu shot but, because I am on immunosuppressant drugs, my body will have had only a very weak immune response to the vaccine. For people like me, we have to rely on the people around us being immunized.

There has only been a single confirmed case of COVID-19 here in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, several of my co-workers have had influenza in the last month. Our local school high school had about 20% of its students out with influenza over the last month, and my wife works in a health care facility where the currently have 79 patients hospitalized with influenza. Early this season it was mostly influenza B. Now they are seeing a lot of influenza A.

I wash and disinfect my hands regularly. I am supposed to wear a HEPA mask whenever I am in a crowded place, but with all the cold and flu going around this season, I haven't gone anywhere except home, work, and doctor appointments since before Christmas. I always wear a HEPA mask when at the clinic or hospital as directed by the transplant clinic.

In January of 2016 I had influenza A. I ended up on a ventilator for 8 days, hospitalized for 44 days with many complications. Before I entered the hospital I weighed about 215 lbs. When I was released, I was down to about 145 lbs. and didn't have enough strength to walk without help. I have since recovered quite well but it has been a long road.

For me, either influenza or COVID-19 would likely be fatal and influenza is much more prevalent so yes, I'm much more concerned about influenza.

as a laymen as I understand it, because the type of strain of the flu can ‘evolves’, The vaccine developed for the type flu we going to have is still a somewhat of a guess. From a earlier post The path it may take may change. It may be a setback, but the more we learn from it, the better we can deal with it in the future. I see no difference from the coronavirus.

it going to be a constant battle.

There is hope on the horizon for a new universal vaccine.

The newest approach will target the "stem" section of the H protein of almost all flu viruses.Current vaccines target only the "head" of the H protein,which rapidly changes and makes an annual shot necessary.The :"stem" section does not change.

Perhaps if the world works together on this problem,it will become available sooner.

Link to NIH: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/universal-influenza-vaccine-research

Experts say "They have never seen anything like it".

This is because it uses the stem section of the virus to infect,rather than the head,and the stem section may evolve,unlike all other H type viruses.

The new vaccine that plans to tackle the stem section may only be temporary.

Viruses are very "smart".

And so are bacteria.

Antibiotics entering a waste treatment plant are chemically broken down before entering the effluent stream

Waste treatment plants have discovered that bacteria are re-assembling the antibiotics for their own use in their microscopic wars with other bacteria.

War and the arms race seems to be universal and inevitable at all levels.

.

How about doing this bump?

My family will be flying tomorrow. Aside from practicing the recommended precautions, I have not curtailed our trip.

I do believe the initial reaction from the administration has been a total failure. Too little too late.

Finally, the gravity of the potential situation cannot be determined for many days or months. So, far, on one is telling us not to fly.

The scary part about flying is the fact that the airlines do not add any new air to the plane after take off.

There is a port that would enable them to purge the old air and replace it with new,but it costs too much extra fuel over the life of the air frame so the pilots are not allowed to open it.

So if you are on a plane with one infected person,the virus can spread to everyone in the plane.

Perhaps,in view of the current circumstances,they could be convinced to temporarily open the fresh air vents or install some sterilization devices in the recirculating air.

I am retired and no longer have to fly,and I am relieved,but I have empathy for those that do.

I wish you and yours a safe and healthy flight.

A twerk bump would be more fun.

Fascinating. We do know that Measles kills about 100,000 people worldwide each year, don't we? That's about the same as are killed on the roads.

The number shot must be near that mark, too.

too little, too late has been done about this,... We should ban roads...

Comparisons of "worldwide" mortality of COVID-19 to influenza at this stage are premature and quite probably statistically misleading for the following reason.

The influenza family of viruses is already saturating the population. The opportunity for exposure is already worldwide.

On the other hand, there will be whole countries/states/counties/cities that have not yet had one person exposed to this new virus and thus the opportunity for infection and subsequent outcomes.

Collectively, "we" have succeeded in the past. SARS was contained and didn't go worldwide and yet from last reading there is still no effective vaccine for that.

What is the lead time for a human use vaccine to become approved? We have missed the goalposts at least once in the past with a Polio vaccine that was less than ideal. If we are to rely solely on a vaccine, then we need containment in place that will protect the uninfected until vaccine developed, tested, approved, manufactured and distributed.

Apply the precautionary principle.

Well put.

From what I have read the big unknown is the mutagenic ability of the little bugger. When we deal with a virus from a human vector it is usually fairly stable and most of its characteristics known. This bugger, having jumped species apparently has a much more flexible genome so mutation is a big concern.

Bump Elbows?

Nah, courtly bow is what you'll get from me.

The elbow room, required to reduce risk, is 3-6 ft. Bumping = way too close. Courtly bow sounds good. Wuhan shake is probably okay where both parties are wearing a mask.

I think you would cough on the inside of the arm/elbow and tap the outside - pointy bit. Not sure if you can get the virus through skin that is in good condition.

Also the idea is that you cannot touch your face with the outside of the elbow.