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Rixter
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Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/06/2020 6:10 PM

Many have noticed a periodicity in new cases of Coronavirus. This dataset is for the entire United States, not just a particular hospital, and covers a period of about 25 weeks.

The dataset can be downloaded at:

https://data.world/vale123/covid-19-complete-dataset/workspace/file?filename=owid-covid-data.csv

A daily plot of new cases shows this periodicity, which appears to be a seven day period.

Here is a plot of total new cases per day of the week.

Does anybody have any theories on why there are fewer reported new cases on Tuesdays and more on Friday through Sunday? It persists over the entire country and over a 25 week period.

Just curious...
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SolarEagle
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#1

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 data

07/06/2020 6:22 PM

I would guess that those smaller hospitals report on a certain day of the week as opposed to larger hospitals that report on a daily basis....obviously the weekend, either fri, sat or sun...sat being the most popular... there are just over 6k hospitals in the US...

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SolarEagle
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#2
In reply to #1

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 data

07/06/2020 6:37 PM

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/faq-surveillance.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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redfred
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#3

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 data

07/06/2020 10:25 PM

I suspect this is a two fold phenomena. First, it probably takes a day or two for a test to come back as positive. Second, many refuse to admit they need a doctor on the weekend. Thus Monday and Tuesday have fewer positive results reported.

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SolarEagle
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#5
In reply to #3

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 data

07/06/2020 11:47 PM

The CDC says they count the total of the day from the previous day as of 4:00pm...so the data probably lags 2 days behind the time that it is actually posted...They say everybody reports to the state they are in, and then the state reports the data to the CDC...

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#4

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 data

07/06/2020 11:08 PM

Different habits and practices on weekdays vs. weekends, as already mentioned.

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SolarEagle
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#6

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 data

07/07/2020 1:38 AM

Is it possible that people circulate in a more diverse population on weekends, then accounting for symptoms to appear, and reporting timeline, they appear on the books the following weekend....?

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PWSlack
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#7

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 data

07/07/2020 5:08 AM

The pattern is not the same for all countries.

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rashavarek
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#8

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/08/2020 11:16 AM

Hey Rix,

Its normal in any system for certain patterns to occur. These are usually tied to the humans and their routines unless some overarching directorate keeps things in line. Since we have no functioning government aka over arching directorate, there is no top level control being exerted on the raw data to help smooth out the human input issues and guide good public policy.

Its a symptom of an uncontrolled system. Very common.

Sorry, nothing sinister today, just unsupervised human beings being humans.

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Rixter
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#9
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Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/08/2020 12:27 PM

I didn't suspect anything sinister. I just thought it was interesting that there appeared to be a "day of the week" effect. My WAG is that the government requires the data on every Monday, and we're seeing people catching up on the paperwork as the weekly deadline approaches.
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rashavarek
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#10
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Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/08/2020 12:41 PM

Good Wag, that's exactly what I was offering. Human beings being human. We see the same thing in our cell counts over time so we instituted a Batch Analyst to help keep people timely and get the data sorted correctly. Customers don't like raw data, they want finished product properly recorded, quantified, and reported. Plus government auditors don't like large, unexplained deviations.

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redfred
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#11
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Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/08/2020 2:25 PM

Unsupervised human beings!?!?

What's wrong with our poly-tyrannical, matrix management society that we cannot get deaths to be reported in a purely chaotic pattern fitting exactly the anticipated Probability Density Function (PDF). I say lock all of the supervisors in a room until only one remains. Then charge the survivor with murder.

Thank you for your patience. I needed a good absurdity vent.

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PWSlack
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#14
In reply to #11

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/09/2020 8:12 AM

Really impressive ranting skills. Well done.

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redfred
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#15
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Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/09/2020 9:02 AM

Thank You

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rashavarek
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#16
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Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/09/2020 9:32 AM

We have often pondered why our bacteria refuse to line up and be counted. They insist on being randomly distributed across the media surface. Go figure.

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PWSlack
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#12
In reply to #8

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/09/2020 3:59 AM

It must be difficult in countries with several time zones, where the same instant in one location is tomorrow to another and it happened yesterday in another.

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DaveD
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#13

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/09/2020 6:53 AM

This is what the UK data looks like. I suspect that for many hospitals and care homes the person tasked with submitting the data works Monday to Friday.
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PWSlack
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#17
In reply to #13

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data

07/09/2020 11:21 AM

For those not "in the know", this dataset comes from one time zone.

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thewildotter
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#18

Re: Periodicity in Covid-19 Data. Seminar EARLY Today COVID19 UV LEDs

09/03/2020 6:11 AM

Industry Tech Days at All About Circuits:

Leveraging UV LEDs to Stop COVID-19 and Other Pathogens

Start Time: Thursday September 03, 2020 - 8:00 AM CDT

I just noticed this, Pay attention to the date and time. It is real soon.

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