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NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/08/2021 5:35 AM

Date:March 21, 2003

Source:NASA/Goddard Space Flight CenterSummary:

Since the late 1970s, the amount of solar radiation the sun emits, during times of quiet sunspot activity, has increased by nearly .05 percent per decade, according to a NASA funded study. "This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change," said Richard Willson, a researcher affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University's Earth Institute, New York.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/03/030321075236.htm

..."Times of maximum sunspot activity are associated with a very slight increase in the energy output from the sun. Ultraviolet radiation increases dramatically during high sunspot activity, which can have a large effect on the Earth's atmosphere. The converse is true during minimum sunspot activity."...

..."Sunspots have been observed continuously since 1609, although their cyclical variation was not noticed until much later. At the peak of the cycle, about 0.1% more Solar energy reaches the Earth, which can increase global average temperatures by 0.05-0.1℃. This is small, but it can be detected in the climate record."...Sep 1, 2020

https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-sunspots-do-affect-our-weather-a-bit-but-not-as-much-as-other-things-145101

https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/6

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#1

Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/08/2021 12:58 PM
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#2
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/08/2021 4:04 PM

..."Over the last century, the average surface temperature of the Earth has increased by about 1.0o F. The eleven warmest years this century have all occurred since 1980, with 1995 the warmest on record. The higher latitudes have warmed more than the equatorial regions."...

https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/Initiatives/Climate/last100.html

...."Earth's average surface air temperature has increased by about 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1900, with over half of the increase occurring since the mid-1970s [Figure 1a]."...

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-1/

...."The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets. This gives a trend of 0.064 ± 0.015 °C per decade over that period."...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/upsDownsGlobalWarming.html

..."NASA satellite observations show that over the last 40 years, solar radiation has actually decreased somewhat."...

Wait, I thought you said it was increasing...

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/

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#4
In reply to #2

Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/08/2021 10:07 PM

to add to my comment, to see what the overall trend of solar radiation emission is.

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#9
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 2:11 PM

Looks like about a 0.8% increase in the last 100 years of total solar irradiation...it does seem to be peaking though, perhaps a decline is imminent....there does seem to be flat periods every 100 years or so....

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#14
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 8:53 PM

I guess I'm surprised that they can plot the total solar irradiance to 0.1 W/m2 resolution for 400 years ago.

Just sayin'...

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#17
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 10:18 PM

..."This historical TSI reconstruction is currently an “unofficial” series using corrections that are believed to reflect the most realistic and up-to-date estimates of the solar variability over the last 400 years, such as the recent revisions to sunspot-number records. For details and the data file, see Greg Kopp’s TSI webpage. Please note that this historical reconstruction of TSI is a combination of models and data that needs to be credited among many researchers."...

"Correlations of TSI measurements with sunspot- and active-area observations allow historical extrapolations of solar irradiances.
The historical reconstruction of TSI below is based on the SATIRE-T model adjusted to the most recent Community-Consensus TSI Composite values from the spacecraft era."

most recent measurements....

https://spot.colorado.edu/~koppg/TSI/

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#3

Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/08/2021 8:38 PM

Interesting about the increase in solar radiation during times of quiet sunspot activity. I haven’t read through all of your links and charts, but it would be be more complete to get the data of overall solar radiation emissions.

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#5
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 2:22 AM

Yes it's interesting that the predicted increase in temperature, matches the actual increase....and the steady long term increase in solar insolation seems to match the temperature increase predicted, and there was a cooling period where temperatures halted their upward trajectory for a while and went horizontal...cause unknown...but might match periods of low sunspot activity...

..."The world's surface air temperature change ("anomaly"), relative to the world's mean temperature of 58° F or 14.5° C, averaged over land and oceans from 1975 to 2008. Inset are two periods of no warming or cooling within this overall warming trend. "...

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/upsDownsGlobalWarming.html

"Since the late 1970s, the amount of solar radiation the sun emits, during times of quiet sunspot activity, has increased by nearly .05 percent per decade,"

"Sunspots have been observed continuously since 1609, although their cyclical variation was not noticed until much later. At the peak of the cycle, about 0.1% more Solar energy reaches the Earth, which can increase global average temperatures by 0.05-0.1℃. "

"The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets. This gives a trend of 0.064 ± 0.015 °C per decade over that period."...

...or 0.049 °C per decade on the low end of the est....so .05 °C times 14 decades = 0.7 °C increase....global mean temp

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#6
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 7:40 AM

another point of interest, has this data been used along with other when that determine climate change being cause by man? Or was that conclusion been predetermined...

A little off topic... as to astronomy had been documented for quick some time,... not only by the Arabs but the Chinese were very good at documenting...

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#7
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 10:36 AM

Correction...

quite some time... not quick some time.

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#25
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/11/2021 7:44 AM

I think you're reading past some stuff:

"Sunspots have been observed continuously since 1609, although their cyclical variation was not noticed until much later. At the peak of the cycle, about 0.1% more Solar energy reaches the Earth, which can increase global average temperatures by 0.05-0.1℃.

"This is small, but it can be detected in the climate record.

"It’s smaller than other known sources of temperature variation, such as volcanoes (for example, the large eruption of Mt Pinatubo, in the Philippines in 1991, cooled Earth by up to 0.4℃ for several years) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which causes variations of up to 0.4℃.

"And it’s small compared to human-induced global warming, which has been accumulating at 0.2℃ per decade since 1980.

"Although each 11-year Solar cycle is different, and the processes underlying them are not fully understood, overall the cycle has been stable for hundreds of millions of years."
<https://theconversation.com/climate-explained...5101>

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#27
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/11/2021 8:44 AM

I find the 'human-induced global warming' claim a little sketchy ...Increased solar radiation is pretty straight forward...Co2 causing one way Earth heating I can poke holes in all day...I think increased CO2 has saved life on this planet from going extinct...The Milankovitch cycle was hitting CO2 levels at near 175 ppm and was on a downward trend, if it was to hit 150ppm that would be it for life on Earth...game over....Plants have been proven to thrive in 600ppm to over 1000ppm CO2, but cannot survive below 150ppm....the proof is in the pudding, the Earth is greening rapidly now....CO2 levels in the past have exceeded several thousand ppm and nothing happened....

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#8

Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 11:57 AM

I thought the science was settled. Sit down, shut up, and obey.

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#10

Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 3:44 PM

Just looking at this as a separate study there are too few data points over too short a time (considering the age of the sun) for any real conclusion here.

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#11
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 3:52 PM

That ends up being the elephant in the room for the whole climate change debacle. There are a lot of very certain people out there working with very tenuous threads, extrapolating data out to whatever regardless of the margin of error when the results suit their purpose.

Yeah, I know. I am a gun toting, tobacco chewin', bible clinging, flat-earthing neanderthal deserving of all the pious scorn and vitriol from the self-appointed saviors of the human race.

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#12
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 4:43 PM

I don’t know if this belongs in this thread, I knew an a person that was ethnically Italian that would squeeze their nickels so hard, that the nickel would dispense pennies... it was pretty cool...

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#13
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 6:29 PM

..."Yeah, I know. I am a gun toting, tobacco chewin', bible clinging, flat-earthing neanderthal..."...

You mean a regular guy.... I'm a southern redneck swearin' fightin' drinkin' smokin' badass, a regular guy too...( at least I used to be, now I'm just old ) Time is the great equalizer...

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#16
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 9:00 PM

Old now we be but we have been around long enought to know the place for waffle is the fairground and flummery is an insubstantive desert.

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#15
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 8:58 PM

Here i sat in tropical Queensland Aus, in -2.3c temperatures and think, gee, if this is glowing balls warming bring it on, get rid of this cold!

Unlike you I am not into nicotine ingestion, fairy tales, or non potato shaped earth but as for the pious scorn heaped upon us who ask, show us all the data not your edited versions to suit your quest for funding, I get that all the time.

Shame that the children in schools are being indoctrinated into accepting whatever the current mantra is and not being trained into questioning and reasoning all the information.

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#18
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 10:26 PM

That's the parents job....the street kids already know it....

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#19
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 10:50 PM

The parents aren’t around,... where the teachers have a huge influence on the children they teach.

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#20
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 10:58 PM
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#21
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/09/2021 11:24 PM

I recall going to grade school, if you didn’t liberal leanings, you were ridiculed in front of class.

Stand in line and March lock step.

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#23
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/11/2021 12:55 AM

I'm sure things have changed, but I experienced none of that when I was in grade school (in the '40s).

... or perhaps I'm just so old that I don't remember...

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#24
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/11/2021 1:17 AM

I went in the late 50's early 60's, we had a civics class but I don't remember any politics at all....the mid to late 60's was all about the Vietnam war, hippie culture and civil rights....the 70's started good and went bad and the 80's continued downhill, with fuel embargo's, the war on drugs, inflation and crappy cars...

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#26
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/11/2021 8:24 AM

Times were different..

For me, this was in the sixty’s where the teachers Union was strong, and school was let out so the teachers good go to teachers conferences organized by the Union... which I presume was nothing more then indoctrination’s because when the teachers returned, it was hell on earth if you were a conservative.

Of course, as a kid, your brought up in an environment like your parents.

fortunately, for a youth, there were other distractions other than politics.

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#22
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Re: NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate

06/10/2021 5:50 PM

No, I'm not really any of those things. But at the first inkling that anyone even begins to ask questions about how certain conclusions are reached, will be labeled as such.

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