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Inflation 2022

06/01/2022 8:47 PM

I don't buy a lot of personal items at the store, so on the consumer side, I'm not the best person to ask. However, I do buy some commercial items and I will say that I've seen much higher than 8% increases (year over year) in prices. Around the end of last year, I noticed that most items I purchased were up 25% or so. I'm not sure how the gov't gets to 8% inflation from 25% price increases, but I understand there are seasonal factors involved - yeah, right!

My question to everyone here; what have you seen in price increases both month over month and year over year? Do you spend only 8% more than last year on your purchases? And if so, do you get the same amount of product?

I'm very interested to see if these high prices are a California thing or if it's across the country.

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#1

Re: Inflation 2022

06/01/2022 8:51 PM

Venezuela, move over…

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#2

Re: Inflation 2022

06/01/2022 9:37 PM

I'll start it off with a story:

Last week, I spoke to a client who wanted to buy a new 2022 Honda Accord or Civic for $22K including tax and license. Their friend has purchased a lot of cars (2-3) and he knows the price. I advised them otherwise and told them to visit 2-3 Honda dealers and when they find out that their estimate isn't possible, then come see me. Well, they did the first part correctly, but then their friend brought them to a dealer he has used and they bought a 2017 Toyota Camry (no sunroof, etc) for $24.6 K total. When I was getting them new back in 2017, we didn't pay that much!

So, what should a five+ year old Camry normally cost - what's the depreciation. Today, Toyota puts a 53% residual on a new 2022 Camry. After three years, the car is worth only 47% of the MSRP when new. Add two more years and we're looking at somewhere around 60% depreciation. In normal times, a five year old Toyota Camry is worth about $10K - makes sense. In the example above, the customer paid $22K + tax and license for a car that would normally be worth $10K or $12K over value. Doing some very simple math, we get 120% above normal value or 120% inflation over a 15 month period (that's about the time when used cars started going up) - roughly 100% per year inflation.

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#65
In reply to #2

Re: Inflation 2022

11/22/2022 5:52 AM

The most recent annual rates of change for the inflation rate are shown by EU statistics. Inflation in the euro region was 10.6% in October 2022.

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#74
In reply to #65

Re: Inflation 2022

11/26/2022 10:55 PM

This is what they're telling us, but I see prices rising much faster.

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#3

Re: Inflation 2022

06/01/2022 9:40 PM

I wish things have only gone up 8% in price.

16 pound bag of Purina catfood at Walmart went from $26 to $30. That's 15% increase since B.B.

2 pound block of Member's Mark cheddar cheese at Sam's Club went from $5.73 to $7.26. That's 27% increase in price since B.B.

Some things like milk have only gone up a modest amount, but milk prices tended to move about $2-$3 gallon give or take. The Martin's potato bread I like to buy is up about 10%.

$4-$5 for a quart of Walmart brand motor oil. Ugh.

I could go on, but it's too painful to think about how much my retirement savings have been devalued in the last year and a half.

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#39
In reply to #3

Re: Inflation 2022

06/16/2022 4:50 PM

The pricing of milk is fickle… you have the Federal Milk Marketing Orders, that tries to stabilize prices. Then you have California milk producers, where double dipping occurs for milk supports…

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#4

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 5:57 AM

IMHO:

Covid? Supply chain issues? Ukraine/Russia war?

Gasoline/oil prices? Food prices?Clothing prices?Smaller packages for same price?

Speculators think the price will go up,and sure enough,it does.

Blame it all on the whipping boy of the day,whatever the name.

Industry has found a way to produce less,and charge more with less labor cost,and more net profit.They will never go back.High prices are here to stay.

Refinery fires,with no injuries?Sounds fishy to me.I am glad no one was hurt,it must have taken a lot of "luck?"...not accusing anyone,but it does raise eyebrows a bit.Never heard of that before.

I think pure greed is the main problem.

The public will get accustomed to the prices.

Gasoline used to be 22 cents a gallon in the sixties.LP was practically free;$2 for a 100 pound cylinder.Gold was less than $32 an ounce.

Ice cream used to be in 1/2 gallon containers.Just try to find a 2 quart ice cream now.There are still a few,but they will eventually fall in line with the rest.

The public will adapt,as always.

Workers will strike for higher wages,industry will capitulate,but the buying power will essentially stay the same.

In the meanwhile,the big industries get a jump on the public that can never be overcome.

As long as a rancher keeps the cattle fed and contented,all is well.

It would be wise for the world leaders to read the poem about man with the hoe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_with_the_Hoe

I am not a socialist,but I think things will eventually right themselves from the bottom up,until once again,society becomes too top heavy and falls over.I do not advocate overthrow or violence,I am simply looking back at history.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." (George Santayana-1905).

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#20
In reply to #4

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 6:08 PM

Wages lag inflation. Always does. Therefore, inflation hurts everyone, especially when it is so severe. To pay for the trillions in wasteful spending in the name of COVID, the Feds just printed more dollars. Now our dollars are worth less. 15-20% less buying power. That stole many tens of thousands of dollars of buying power right out of my retirement savings.

What a perfect way to enact a stealth wealth tax.

Did you catch that?

The Democrats know exactly what they are doing.

A wealth tax. If you have saved money, you are screwed. You just lost 20%. If you didn't, you just wait for the wages to catch up somewhat, and you're not much worse off than you were before.

This has nothing to do with greed. It is all about power. The whole idea is to put the power to spend money in the hands of the politicians and the bureaucrats of the government.

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#22
In reply to #20

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 6:33 PM

That's why you never save your money in cash, you invest it...

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#24
In reply to #22

Re: Inflation 2022

06/03/2022 12:03 AM

Absolutely. But the stock market did not jump up in value by 25-30% since Biden took office. In fact, quite the opposite. I actually have very little in cash. I probably should have moved a bunch over in the last year to limit the market losses. I'll just sit on my stock funds waiting for 2024.

If "We" don't send Nancy and Chuckie packing this November, we're doomed.

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#32
In reply to #24

Re: Inflation 2022

06/05/2022 7:48 PM

Anybody with any savings or a fixed income is getting punished. The only winners are those in debt.

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#86
In reply to #20

Re: Inflation 2022

12/04/2022 8:01 AM

IMHO:

Without money,there is no power.Money feeds power.It is the lifeblood of power.

The lust for power is the rutting hormone for money.

Name one poor politician.

Name a politician that lives in a gated community,yet claims to hates walls.

Politics are like the WWE:

Opposite sides hate each other in public,but share drinks,cigars, and golf together behind the scenes.

It was Joseph Stalin who said that "it's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes."

"You can fool some of the people all of the time....focus on them..those are my kind of people." That applies to all parties.

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#5

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 8:34 AM

I'm very interested to see if these high prices are a California thing or if it's across the country.

I'd say it's everywhere, but California is making tighter circles around the drain.

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#8
In reply to #5

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 10:10 AM

This seems like it's all part of the green energy forcing strategy, ie: if green energy prices are too high, just raise all other prices to arrive at parity...unfortunately it crushes the poor and middle class....the rich, not so much...Everybody loves green energy, until they get the bill....the poor say I can't pay this I'll go broke, the rich say it's a bit painful, but it's worth it...

Now go out and buy this green brainwashing kit for your 5 year old, for $300...haha

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#16
In reply to #8

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 2:24 PM
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#17
In reply to #16

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 2:39 PM

Now the DQ ‘s actually have something to cry about… the silence is deafening…

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#18
In reply to #16

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 3:06 PM

Well Biden promised that he would end America's reliance on fossil fuels during his campaign, in fact I believe I posted a video of him saying exactly that....so I don't see how anybody is surprised by this, a lot of people voted for this....I think most people thought that it was to be a gradual transition, not the train wreck we see happening now....but that's not what he said...

They all live in a bubble...!!!

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#19
In reply to #18

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 3:09 PM

They live in a bubble is correct… unfortunately, they believe they are so articulated intellectuals, they don’t see it.

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#21
In reply to #19

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 6:11 PM

A bubble of their own flatulence and they can't even tell that it stinks.

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#90
In reply to #21

Re: Inflation 2022

12/04/2022 9:23 AM

Well, the fact checkers that were fact checking actual facts,… didn’t help either…

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#87
In reply to #19

Re: Inflation 2022

12/04/2022 8:08 AM

IMHO:

The bubble will eventually burst.

Look at China now.

Consider this poem:

The Man with the Hoe
Bowed by the weight of centuries he leans
Upon his hoe and gazes on the ground,
The emptiness of ages in his face,
And on his back the burden of the world.
Who made him dead to rapture and despair,
A thing that grieves not and that never hopes.
Stolid and stunned, a brother to the ox?
Who loosened and let down this brutal jaw?
Whose was the hand that slanted back this brow?
Whose breath blew out the light within this brain?
Is this the Thing the Lord God made and gave
To have dominion over sea and land;
To trace the stars and search the heavens for power;
To feel the passion of Eternity?
Is this the Dream He dreamed who shaped the suns
And marked their ways upon the ancient deep?
Down all the stretch of Hell to its last gulf
There is no shape more terrible than this —
More tongued with censure of the world's blind greed —
More filled with signs and portents for the soul —
More fraught with menace to the universe.
What gulfs between him and the seraphim!
Slave of the wheel of labor, what to him
Are Plato and the swing of Pleiades?
What the long reaches of the peaks of song,
The rift of dawn, the reddening of the rose?
Through this dread shape the suffering ages look;
Time's tragedy is in the aching stoop;
Through this dread shape humanity betrayed,
Plundered, profaned, and disinherited,
Cries protest to the Powers that made the world.
A protest that is also a prophecy.
O masters, lords and rulers in all lands,
Is this the handiwork you give to God,
This monstrous thing distorted and soul-quenched?
How will you ever straighten up this shape;
Touch it again with immortality;
Give back the upward looking and the light;
Rebuild in it the music and the dream,
Make right the immemorial infamies,
Perfidious wrongs, immedicable woes?
O masters, lords and rulers in all lands
How will the Future reckon with this Man?
How answer his brute question in that hour
When whirlwinds of rebellion shake all shores?
How will it be with kingdoms and with kings —
With those who shaped him to the thing he is —
When this dumb Terror shall rise to judge the world.
After the silence of the centuries?

I do not advocate violence or overthrow,but this seems to reflect history.

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#38
In reply to #18

Re: Inflation 2022

06/16/2022 4:41 PM

To end poverty, the solution is simple. The answer is a job.

In our area… entry level positions is $18.00-22.50 for line work (food manufacturing)

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#23
In reply to #8

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 7:34 PM

Is it made out of plastic?

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#25
In reply to #23

Re: Inflation 2022

06/03/2022 12:04 AM

Biodegradable of course.

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#88
In reply to #5

Re: Inflation 2022

12/04/2022 8:14 AM

California is so smart.A lot of industries are leaving due to high taxes.The coffers are dwindling because of this so what do they do?Raise taxes.They just don't get it.

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#6

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 9:38 AM

Why have potato chips gone up so much? and peanut butter? I refuse to pay these prices...it's called demand destruction, and measures the threshold of pain that consumers are willing to bear...either sell it for a fair price, or I'm not buyin' it, it's that simple...demand goes down, prices go down...

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 10:01 AM

It was in 2020 that farmers destroyed their potatoes… due to COVID-19.

as far as supply, with gas approaching 10.00 /gallon, and the price of petroleum products such as fertilizer and spray material… and the incompetence in Washington.

America will be going in a diet. Damn it Venezuela, I told you to move over…

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#9
In reply to #7

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 10:18 AM

Article of farmers destroying their crops.

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#10
In reply to #9

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 11:02 AM

That was a demand issue created by covid shutdown, that is no longer the case, there is no shortage of potatoes...nor has there been any significant price increase for potatoes...

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/4m90dv511/cj82m9490/xg94jr07m/uscp0122.pdf

https://www.potatopro.com/

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 12:53 PM

Is price gouging immoral, or is it a necessary function of free-market capitalism?...I think as usual, this falls into the category of sometimes it's just the market at work, while other times it requires government intervention, like in times of emergency or disaster which creates a temporary shortfall of certain goods and services...clearly this is dictated by numbers, because the case could be made that a state of perpetual emergency exists for some portion of the public at all times, there-in lies the problem....that's why we have FEMA and other NGO charitable organizations, to fill those gaps of urgent need that are naturally occurring on a scale that is manageable with resources that are normally available...

https://sase.org/blog/price-gouging-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-questions-for-socio-economic-research/

https://www.patriotsoftware.com/blog/accounting/price-gouging-laws-by-state/

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#13
In reply to #11

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 1:15 PM

Define price gouging,… in times of emergency say like after 9/11 where there were gas stations that doubled and tripled their price… yes…

FEMA, is just another bloated, broken government entity… hurricane Katrina showed that.

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#14
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Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 1:17 PM
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#15
In reply to #14

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 1:46 PM

It’s interesting, that was a false issue, due to panic. Like making a run on the bank.

Georgia Pacific (Koch Brothers) claimed to have plenty of TP in the warehouses, it was just getting it distributed was the problem. Of course, that did cost more, as far as the stores price gouging… I can’t say anything like that… but I know the grocery stores shelves were bare.

the interesting thing was, i when to a regional convenient store/gas station, that was not only reasonable, but it had a lot of staple items such as TP and Food. What set them apart, there also had a great logistic system.

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#12
In reply to #10

Re: Inflation 2022

06/02/2022 1:12 PM

Potatoes have always be cheap,

the earlier point, the fuel, fertilizer and spray material, sky rocketed.

and the problems is, farmers can sell on futures, the risk is too high if the production is under their promise. And that’s Grain, meat, fruits and vegetables.

and example, in the last 10 years in Northeast Wisconsin, cherry production dropped because it was no longer affordable to grow cherries. I usually follow NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Survey)

As far as the other crops, farmers are still going to produce, just keep in mind, the local co-ops no longer extends credit until harvest anymore, and expects to be paid in 30days. There’s a huge investment producing food, while the farmer only finds out what he gets for his crop is when he opens the envelope and reads the check he receives for his crop, produce or product.

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#26

Re: Inflation 2022

06/03/2022 3:50 AM

World food prices have risen sharply in the last 2 years...up around 85%

May 31, 202085.43
April 30, 2022158.87

https://ycharts.com/indicators/food_index_world_bank

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#27

Re: Inflation 2022

06/04/2022 6:34 AM

A consumer price index (CPI) is a price index, the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Changes in measured CPI track changes in prices over time.

Click on chart to view full size....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index

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#28
In reply to #27

Re: Inflation 2022

06/04/2022 6:46 AM

the economy is similar to Black Tuesday in 1929, the difference is, it not over valued stocks, but over valued housing…

Statistically, it takes a larger percentage of your paycheck to buy a house now, then it did back in the depression.

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#30
In reply to #28

Re: Inflation 2022

06/04/2022 5:45 PM

Yeah all the property is being bought up by mostly large real estate companies, then doing some minimal improvement, turn around and try to sell it for nearly twice what they paid a year ago....2008 all over again...I wonder who will be left holding the bag this time....dump those reits or it might be you....haha

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#31
In reply to #30

Re: Inflation 2022

06/05/2022 9:17 AM

Tread lightly when buying real estate.

I just started working, I was going to buy a home and mine and move… doing each wou,d be a problem, but I decided not.

instead I’m renting, when was a 6 week wait. But I don’t care if they say it’s a wash because each is about 150% over value…

like in the stock market in the 90’s with *Etrade and Ameritrde, they are looking for fresh meat with money to invest.

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#79
In reply to #30

Re: Inflation 2022

11/26/2022 11:24 PM

Rents are going up as well, so the big guys (think Invitation Homes - Blackstone) have made money on the capital gain (price of the house), rental income AND application fees - that's a big one.

I own INVH, because I believe rents will continue to rise. Why? If people can't afford to buy a home, because mortgage rates are up, then they're stuck renting. Builders won't build as many homes, because there are fewer who can afford them. As new households are created, the demand for housing goes up, while supply remains constrained, so rent goes up. Of course a recession will cause higher unemployment, which will force households to consolidate (move back in with mom and dad or share a place with friends/family), but I believe the recession will be mild, unemployment will rise maybe 1-2% and the net effect of recession and household creation will be more people renting.

I could be completely wrong about this - it's just what I see.

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#80
In reply to #79

Re: Inflation 2022

11/26/2022 11:26 PM

One other thing - since the majority of homeowners have a low fixed rate mortgage, they won't be able to move - the payment will go up too much, due to the higher rate. So very few will be selling, which means fewer properties available and more stability than during other recessions.

It'll take a lot to get back to the housing market of 2008-09.

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#29
In reply to #27

Re: Inflation 2022

06/04/2022 4:27 PM

..." From January 1959 through July 2018, inflation measured by the PCEPI has averaged 3.3%, while it has averaged 3.8% using CPI"....

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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#33

Re: Inflation 2022

06/06/2022 6:24 PM
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#34
In reply to #33

Re: Inflation 2022

06/06/2022 6:32 PM

No, we’re not. We’re adversary’s… but we have no longer have anyone at the helm.

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#35
In reply to #34

Re: Inflation 2022

06/06/2022 9:08 PM

And the ship has no rudder anyways . . .

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#36
In reply to #35

Re: Inflation 2022

06/07/2022 6:42 PM

Full Speed Ahead…

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#37
In reply to #36

Re: Inflation 2022

06/07/2022 6:58 PM

. . . damn the torpedoes !

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#40

Re: Inflation 2022

06/17/2022 6:58 AM

I was filling up with gas one day,and I saw a state truck with a trailer behind it stop o n the side of the road.Two men got out.One started digging a hole,and the other stood by until the first guy had dug 3 holes,then he started filling the holes up and packing them down.

When I finished filling up,I asked the "hole digger" what were they putting in the holes.He said "Nothing". I asked why he was digging the hole and the other man was filling them up again,with nothing in the holes.He said "That's my job.. I dig the holes."

"This is normally a 3 man crew,but Fred,who puts the signs in the holes is out on sick leave.Just because he is out doesn't mean we can't work."

Then it occurred to me how to reduce unemployment and increase productivity:Put everyone digging holes and filling them back up again.

This will be about as productive as all our "representatives" (using the word loosely) in DC.

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#41
In reply to #40

Re: Inflation 2022

06/17/2022 7:54 AM

Wait a second…

If that was the county doing the work,… shouldn't there have been another experienced hole digger there leaning on a shovel… as well as a supervisor there making sure the job was done right?

here is a poster to adhere to proper hole digging…

always remember, to look for the Union label…

where is that?

you’re sitting on it.

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#42

Re: Inflation 2022

10/06/2022 5:27 AM

Inflation update:

Gas at the corner station is $6.99/gallon. The cheapest out there is Arco at $6.59/gallon.

Okay, oil was just below $80/bbl. Gas is just below the high earlier this year when oil was $120/bbl.

The math isn't making sense???

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#43
In reply to #42

Re: Inflation 2022

10/06/2022 10:20 AM

But the orange man is gone… they got what they wanted, that’s why the DQ’s are so quiet…

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#44
In reply to #43

Re: Inflation 2022

10/07/2022 12:35 PM

But most importantly, there are no more mean Tweets that hurt somebody's feelings.

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#45
In reply to #44

Re: Inflation 2022

10/07/2022 3:38 PM

Yes… for their tears I was running out of…


and ….

and …

not necessarily in that order. Ahhh… who am I kidding… I got plenty of that last item…

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#46
In reply to #45

Re: Inflation 2022

10/07/2022 3:59 PM

That's funny!!

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#47
In reply to #43

Re: Inflation 2022

10/07/2022 4:35 PM

Sad thing is that the average Joe has no idea what's happening. All he hears are the sound bites and the MSM bleating out their message.

I would think that average Joe would question things. Why is crime so high? Why are gas prices so high? Why did my electric bill go up so much? Why does it cost so much when I grab a burger for lunch? Or take my family out to dinner? Why is my 401K balance going down, when they take money out of my paycheck every month? Why are my savings dwindling away, even though I'm working more hours than ever? Where did all these homeless people come from and why are they allowed to make a tarp home on the sidewalk or live in a motorhome and throw trash out the door. Who pays for all those shopping carts the homeless are using? Why do I get a parking ticket for missing my meter by 5 minutes, yet the derelict motorhome has been there for months with no ticket? How can someone as busy as congressman have time to invest in the stock market and turn $10K (when they come into office) into $10M when they leave office? Why are they telling me I need to buy a Tesla, when there aren't enough charging stations and quite frankly, I don't want a $1,000 + car payment? What happens to all those people working at the refinery, gas stations, oil fields, truck drivers delivering fuel - where will they work if we are forced to drive EV's? Why is North Korea firing missiles over Japan? Why, why, why?

Instead, they're wondering if Brady should've stayed retired and most importantly, what's for dinner?

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#48
In reply to #47

Re: Inflation 2022

10/07/2022 5:02 PM

IMHO: The political circus resembles the WWE:the parties are enemies in public,but behind the scenes, share drinks,women and play golf together.

Raise the temperature slowly till the frog is cooked.

Man! It is getting warm in here.

"Politicians and baby diapers should be changed frequently,and for the same reasons."

Mark Twain

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#50
In reply to #48

Re: Inflation 2022

10/12/2022 4:35 PM

Think about how different our country would be IF we had term limits.

1. No empire building - or at least not to the extreme it is now.

2. I believe our politicians would be less likely to cheat and steal - they won't have the protection from others who are lifetime "members".

3. Voting down the aisle wouldn't exist as much. The political parties won't have as much control, because there would be so much new blood coming in - people who want to do things for the principle, not the party.

4. The bills will be less encumbered by the huge number or riders. Much less "scratch my back ..." politics, since there won't be empire building.

5. Things may actually get done - things that are good for our country! Wouldn't that be nice.

6. The stock/bond market wouldn't be so manipulated. Those who trade on insider information may actually get prosecuted.

7. I think big corporations would be hurt. They have the best lobbyists and also the right connections. With a revolving door, the playing field will be leveled out - to some degree.

Definitely much more to be gained, but my brain is tired now!

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#49
In reply to #47

Re: Inflation 2022

10/07/2022 5:09 PM

But ‘below average Joe’ is doing just fine…

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#51
In reply to #49

Re: Inflation 2022

10/12/2022 4:42 PM

We have a new ice cream shop around the corner from us, Handel's. Well, it's relatively new and I'll tell you, it's fantastic. There's always a line, no seating inside - order at the window. Plenty of outside seating. It was a Togos - I was upset they closed. To me, they were reasonably priced, clean and had good sandwiches.

We have a Baskin Robins in the next shopping center - it has a Ralph's grocery store as the anchor and it's a busy center. The Handel's is in an outdoor mall, but it's not a big mall - more like a new style mall with a small food area (two shops including the Handel's), an El Torito sit down near one entrance and stores like Best Buy, Ulta, Pet Smart, Dick's and Nordstrom's Rack. There's about a dozen other stores. No town center feel - it's a big rectangle with parking in the center and the stores around. Not set up for walking. That's why I'm amazed at how well Handel's is doing.

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#53
In reply to #51

Re: Inflation 2022

10/12/2022 5:01 PM

A good sandwich shop is hard to find.

In Manitowoc, Wisconsin, there was a deli Marettis you put in your order, and yo7 watch them assemble the sandwich, that includes slice off thick pieces of (look home made) bread on a cutting board. I miss that… I think I’ll take my wife there, she heard me talk abo7t it all the time. Now I’m hungry..,

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#54
In reply to #53

Re: Inflation 2022

10/12/2022 5:53 PM

I just pulled up your link - wow, what a fantastic looking place. Our Togo's isn't even close to that nice. Togo's is a chain out here in CA - much better than Subway - no comparison. I like Togo's better than Jersey Mikes too.

Here's our best sandwich shop - it's just down the street and the food and service is fantastic. Not very big inside. However, a sandwich, chips and Coke will set you back $25! There's something that just doesn't feel right about $25 for lunch.

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#55
In reply to #54

Re: Inflation 2022

10/12/2022 7:52 PM

Yeah, I'm with you on that. $25 for lunch is out of my league, except maybe for a special occasion when a fellow employee is leaving the company, etc. That is a damn good looking sandwich though. I could see myself eating something like that 3 or 4 times a year.

Back here in the east, my go to sandwich shop for more frequent visits is Wawa.

https://www.wawa.com/fresh-food/hoagies

Wawa subs are about the same price as Subway, maybe a little less, but way more meat than skimpy Subway sandwiches. The 10-inch Wawa sub of the same variety weighs considerably more than the 12-inch Subway sub. McSubway is my last choice anymore for sandwich chains.

But if you want to find a really good sandwich, go where the blue collar workers eat near the shipyard or steel mill. It might not be pretty (usually not), but the food will be good and filling. In southwest Baltimore there is a place called John's. Some wussy diners complain about the over-filled subs, being too messy, whatever.

https://www.yelp.com/biz/johns-italian-deli-halethorpe

Now, THAT's a sandwich.

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#57
In reply to #55

Re: Inflation 2022

10/18/2022 2:43 AM

That looks fantastic! Sounds like the East Coast equivalent to our greasy burrito places out West.

This is my favorite burrito joint here in town. https://burritoexpresspasadena.com/menu.html They make a burrito called the Ross Perot. Chicken - yes, Pork - yes, Carne Asada - yes. Not your choice, but all three in a big, heavy burrito! Of course the usual too, rice, beans, cheese, sour cream, hot or mild sauce and guacamole!

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#59
In reply to #57

Re: Inflation 2022

10/18/2022 12:46 PM

Next time I fly out to Irwindale to visit one of our vendors, I'm definitely stopping by. That sounds awesomely delicious.

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#60
In reply to #59

Re: Inflation 2022

10/21/2022 3:21 AM

Burrito Express on Washington. It's between Allen and Hill on the North side of the 210 - about a mile or so from the freeway!

A block west of Burrito Express is Connal's. A walk up window place - you literally walk up to the window and order. They have a place to sit in the back (open air) and a place next door that is part of the restaurant - they won't serve you there, but it's set up in a 50's style - I like it. The best part is they have a #1 special - a double cheeseburger, huge fries (HUGE) and a large Coke with free refills - less than $9.50 including tax! Most times I cant' eat it all and I take part of the burger and about 1/2 the fries home. Unless it's a hiking day and after a good workout, I'm ready to devour anything! They use some sort of spice on the burger and fries - like the red colored salt you see at some places. Best of all, it's an old school mom and pop place. And not too far from Irwindale either!

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#62
In reply to #60

Re: Inflation 2022

10/21/2022 3:32 PM

Speaking of hiking, lots of nice hikes up there at the Wilson Observatory. Did some of those on my free time.

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#63
In reply to #62

Re: Inflation 2022

10/22/2022 4:37 AM

The observatory is very cool. Lots of great history up there! I read that they used the Mt Wilson Toll Road to bring supplies to build the observatory. Here's an article on it: https://www.mtwilson.edu/arrival-of-the-100-inch-mirror/

I've hiked up the Mt Wilson Toll Road from Eaton Canyon - it's a long one, but not as steep as the Mt Wilson Trail. It's also not as nice as the Mt Wilson Trail.

Here's an amazing picture of the Mt Wilson Trail in 1900.

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#64
In reply to #63

Re: Inflation 2022

10/22/2022 6:04 PM

Life was a lot harder back then.

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#56
In reply to #54

Re: Inflation 2022

10/12/2022 10:01 PM

we should start a thread in the break room with favorite places to eat from CR4 members. You know… if a member decides to take a road trip… one can look and see if there a good place to eat not too far out of the way…

and then give a status report on the meal… with pictures… that includes across the pond…

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#58
In reply to #56

Re: Inflation 2022

10/18/2022 2:45 AM

That's an awesome idea!

If you don't mind, I'll start the thread right now - since we'll be heading across country soon - plane tickets bought yesterday and I'm feeling strong enough for the trip! I'm excited!

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#52

Re: Inflation 2022

10/12/2022 4:51 PM

Producer Price Index - September's number came out very strong at 0.4% month over month. The pros had expected 0.2% m/m. Year over year is 8.5%.

Tomorrow Consumer Price Index is coming out. After today's report it's going to be hot.

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#61

Re: Inflation 2022

10/21/2022 4:14 AM

I watched an awesome video tonight - two guys had a super smart guest on their show. The guest's name is Nick Colas - I had never heard of him until tonight. My goodness, what an amazing video!

Lots and lots and lots of valuable information. I had no idea that oil was $1/bbl in 1970 - it got to $40/bbl by the end of the decade - talk about inflation. I also had no idea that the cost of us supporting Israel during the war in 1973 was the cause of the oil embargo and consequently the $40/bbl oil price. I see that history does repeat itself, but at least, this time it's different!

Another claim by Nick is that our current inflation problem is 2/3 from consumer demand and 1/3 from supply chain breakdowns.

For those who trade stocks - not invest, but trade, the algos have buys set when the VIX hits 32 1/2 or 33 1/2 - right before the 34 target, which is the one I use. I've used 34, because I follow some great traders who use it and also, because it's worked for me. Why does it work? The algos are basically stopping the bears, right before the VIX reaches it's maximum of 36 = 2 standard deviations from center. If it breaks 36, the next level is 44, which is 3 standard deviations - that's usually capitulation and the market bottom.

He also mentioned that the Fed put is not an S&P level, but a VIX target. A high VIX could lead to a systematic failure, where the S&P hitting 2500 doesn't - S&P 2500 is just a number, where a high VIX is 2 standard deviations from center. Very interesting!

He spoke about an analogous situation we may see in the next decade if we don't do something about it now. The 70's saw high inflation, due to oil prices going exponential. He feels we could see the same thing in the next decade, but not due to oil. He feels it's due to wage gains. They showed a chart of wage gains and the chart goes vertical in 2021-22. He also said that job flippers see a 9% gain vs people who stay see only 5%. Wow, that's almost double the wage gain if you jump from job to job! He said that the Fed knows that wage gains can cause a decade long high inflation environment, so they're on a mission to kill inflation by killing wage growth. Remember that minimum was jobs were paying $7 and change pre pandemic. Last year on our trip to Oregon, we saw help wanted signs at fast food joints with signing bonuses and $17/hr pay. That's huge wage growth, which then causes the business owner to raise prices, which creates inflation. That's why a burger at a sit down place is now $18 plus tax, plus tip! Or a Carl's Jr fast food $6 burger is no longer called that - it's called a thick burger - same burger, but $15 with fries and a Coke!

Lastly, he mentioned that companies won't lay off in large scale, due to the difficulty they had getting employees in the last year. However, profits are key to a company, so when profits drop, they'll need to reduce expenses = lay off people. Until then, there will be no big layoffs and consequently, we can expect inflation to stay high and the Fed to keep vigorously fighting it.

If all this is correct, which I have no reason to doubt, then we're in trouble. The Fed has a job to do and they're not going to stop. They've started a war on inflation and they know the cost if they don't win it. A casualty will be the employees - The Fed will watch for corporate profits to fall hard - maybe next quarter? Then they'll watch for unemployment to rise and wage growth to stall. At that point, they'll know they've done their job and that'll be the green light we need to see to invest vs trade. Until then, we need to be nimble and use the VIX as a signal of when to go long and short. I've used 20-34 as my range - buy at 34 and sell at 20 ... or as it nears 34, I start buying and as it nears 20, I start selling. Remember that you can sell call options against your position (buy-write). When the VIX is 34, you can sell call options with a month or two of time and a strike that's a few points higher - your target. Then when the VIX is around 24, buy the options back and start liquidating your position until the VIX hits 20 - should be almost all out at this point (except for your investments). And NEVER let a trade become an investment - typically means that you didn't have a stop and now you're stuck with a loss to large, so you now call it an investment - the best way to lose money in the market and also lose capital - in a bear market, your goal is to preserve capital!

Sorry this was so long, but I'm so excited after watching the video. If anyone is interested, here's the link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNgyULU96zU

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#66
In reply to #61

Re: Inflation 2022

11/22/2022 8:59 AM

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#67
In reply to #66

Re: Inflation 2022

11/22/2022 3:48 PM

Looks like the Christmas rally will take us up to around 4100, and then test the low in the first quarter of '23...second half of the year is party on....but I'm just guessing

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#69
In reply to #67

Re: Inflation 2022

11/22/2022 6:00 PM

Thanks Joe!

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#71
In reply to #69

Re: Inflation 2022

11/22/2022 8:12 PM

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#91
In reply to #71

Re: Inflation 2022

12/06/2022 4:24 PM

Yikes!

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#75
In reply to #67

Re: Inflation 2022

11/26/2022 11:05 PM

I think your analysis is correct. There's one factor that we need to watch very closely - it's the CPI report coming out mid December, I think the 13th. The Fed is meeting the next day (again, I think).

If CPI is too hot, then the rally dies and we start heading back down. If CPI is unchanged, the rally may end, but we won't drop hard. If CPI is low, the rally will continue and we could see 4300 by end of year ... okay, maybe 4200.

The VIX hit 20.50 on Friday, so I'm starting to liquidate my positions. I'd like to be completely out (except for energy stocks) by this Friday. I'll sit out until right before CPI comes out and I'll buy some call options (hope we get a weak number). If I'm wrong, I only lose the premium, which is okay - playing with house money right now.

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#68

Re: Inflation 2022

11/22/2022 4:32 PM
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#70
In reply to #68

Re: Inflation 2022

11/22/2022 6:01 PM

President Obama was right. Elections DO have consequences.

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#72
In reply to #68

Re: Inflation 2022

11/24/2022 12:31 AM

We have averaged 8% inflation for the last 12 months, your dollar from a year ago is now worth $.92...and the S & P has declined 20%, but I suspect that will bounce back within a year or two....the dollar, not so much....

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#73
In reply to #72

Re: Inflation 2022

11/24/2022 5:45 AM

The spin that is put on is…. ‘Social Security has the biggest increase in 40 years.’

oops!

because they thought everyone were like the Drama Queens that voted them in

this administration is realizing not everyone are like the clowns that voted these clowns in just to get the ‘bad orange cheetos man’ out.

but hey,… the D.Q.’s can an always step out of the shadows now and correct my grammar instead…. And that’s fine, they have no other defense for their hate.

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#78
In reply to #73

Re: Inflation 2022

11/26/2022 11:16 PM

Unfortunately, the election wasn't about inflation, like it should've been - bad policies created inflation and the current administration needs to take the blame for it. Instead, the red guys gave it to them by playing with Roe vs Wade.

I don't want to get political here - it's just my opinion about how poor planning and misreading the voters backfired on the team that was supposed to win - by a landslide.

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#77
In reply to #72

Re: Inflation 2022

11/26/2022 11:11 PM

But the dollar is up 10.4% in the last 12 months, so theoretically, you're at break even if you think about how much the dollar buys outside the US.

That of course DOESN'T work! A German built car doesn't cost the same as it did last year. Or a Japan built car? Or a Korean built car?

I'm curious if anyone here buys from out of the country for their job? Did the prices go up, down or is the same?

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#81
In reply to #77

Re: Inflation 2022

11/30/2022 3:23 PM

Well reports I've gotten first hand say prices are lower, travelers are seeing their money go further...

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#76
In reply to #68

Re: Inflation 2022

11/26/2022 11:07 PM

Funny thing is that the market watches CPI (with an emphasis on core inflation). I heard that the Fed watches PCE, but the street believes it's CPI, so that's what moves the market. PCE is coming out Dec 1st. I'm watching it very closely.

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#82
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Re: Inflation 2022

12/01/2022 2:20 PM
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#83
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Re: Inflation 2022

12/01/2022 2:33 PM

Yeah, but the GFOSIABPI is like way over 20% per year !!

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.

.

.

.

GAS-FOOD-OTHER-STUFF-I-ACTUALLY-BUY-PRICE-INDEX

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#85
In reply to #83

Re: Inflation 2022

12/01/2022 3:18 PM

Yeah well the PCE doesn't include the stuff you really need like food and energy which underlies just about everything and can drive the cost of living to sky high levels just by itself...so they measure the effect instead of the cause...but these levels can be manipulated by people just refusing to pay higher prices no matter how much they can afford to pay, this forces lower cost alternatives and efficiency to increase and is good for everybody....

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#84
In reply to #82

Re: Inflation 2022

12/01/2022 3:06 PM

S & P - 4080 __ VIX - 20.20 ...gettin' close....

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#89
In reply to #76

Re: Inflation 2022

12/04/2022 8:20 AM

IMHO:

The way to curb inflation is to give more interest on savings.This will encourage people to save rather than spend.People are now in a spend-now mode before the prices go up again,which is exactly the opposite of what is needed.

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#92

Re: Inflation 2022

12/07/2022 1:59 PM

On the lighter side of things..l if you want to call it that…

“China is hurting for money too and they are considering laying off a lot of Democratic Senators and House members, but Joe’s job is safe. I suggest that the Democratic members of Congress do not go on strike against China or they could be laid off as well. They will need all the money they can get to keep the Chinese spies they are sleeping with happy.”

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#93
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Re: Inflation 2022

12/07/2022 6:57 PM

You have to wonder how much they had to pay Fang to bang that dweeb?

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#94
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Re: Inflation 2022

12/08/2022 12:18 AM
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#95

Re: Inflation 2022

01/28/2023 8:40 AM

In spite of all the transportation difficulties,I can get a delivery from Amazon overnight in a lot of cases.

IMHO:

Seems to me that the Covid is the new whipping boy for price increases.

Business have no desire to lower prices or rehire workers.

They have higher profits with less sales and fewer employees,so why go back?

Canned milk,for instance has gone up to over $1.30 per can,from $0.35.

This is only one example of the outrageous increases in price.

I don't buy it any more.

If everyone would selectively boycott an item that is outrageous,the price would come down,or it would spoil on the shelf.

This would be very effective for perishable items,like meats,eggs,vegetables,etc.

I still eat healthy,but I waste a lot less.

Like when I was growing up,every meal had leftovers from the previous meal.Nothing was wasted.A bowl of soup had leftovers from leftovers from the previous week.

Fresh meat was what you brought home from hunting.

Vegetarian was a word used to describe a poor hunter.

Venison,rabbits,squirrels,wild turkey,ducks and my small garden provide all the meat and veggies I need.

And the price of ammo even makes that more expensive,so every shot must count.

Do as you please,but as for me,personally,I no longer purchase anything unless there is an urgent absolutely necessary need,which is very seldom.

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#96
In reply to #95

Re: Inflation 2022

01/28/2023 11:38 AM

Well, if it’s not COVID, than it’s the war in Ukraine, if not that, it’s something else where the blame will be on everything with the exception,of the actual major cause.

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#97
In reply to #96

Re: Inflation 2022

01/28/2023 9:18 PM

Hear, hear.

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#98

Re: Inflation 2022

01/29/2023 9:16 AM

I still believe a concerted,selective boycott of certain products would help bring prices down.Of course,that is hard to do,but it is the only possible power left to consumers to fight corporate greed.

Corporations have always been greedy,it is necessary to profit to survive,but it has gone far past survival now and gone into an unbridled greed for more-more-more,and as long as the public acquiesces to it it will continue.

The price/demand curve has been skewed and the only way to straighten it out is a public selective boycotting,IMHO.

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