Duck Curve Now Looks Like a Canyon

I would have thought that people charging their cars would increase the midnight-early morning load.

The duck curve illustrates the renewable portion of electric generation...actual daily demand chart looks much different with demand highest during the day...

Demand overall is increasing...

Currently, it's estimated that around 1 percent of the 250 million cars, SUVs, and light-duty trucks on American roads are electric. EVs in 2021 made up only 3% of all US car purchases....

The average electric vehicle requires 30 kilowatt-hours to travel 100 miles — the same amount of electricity an average American home uses each day to run appliances, computers, lights and heating and air conditioning.

Currently, the administration estimates about 3 million of the cars in the U.S. are electric, which is approximately one percent of the total.Mar 20, 2023

For 3 million EV's to travel 100 miles would require about 90 GWh..Residential daily consumption of electricity is 12 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person. The United States' portion of the electrical grid in North America had a nameplate capacity of 1,213 GW and produced 3,988 TWh in 2021..

So I think we can safely say that if everybody was driving electric cars our electric demand would double to 24 kWh a day per person....

That's a 14.5 GW generating capacity increase starting 2021 and increasing exponentially...

Remember Solar(15%) and Wind(25%) are intermittent and only produce a percentage of their stated capacity...

<... if everybody was driving electric cars...electric demand would double...>

There would, of course, be a corresponding reduction in the amount of fossil fuel consumed, assuming that the additional electric power were supplied by more sustainable sources - which is the aim.

Yeah but then the electric prices keep going up....

" The retail price for electricity in the United States stood at an average of 11.18 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour in 2021. This is the highest figure reported in the indicated period, and represents a year-over-year growth of over five percent."

"Between January 2022 and January 2023, the average electricity price for US homeowners increased from 13.72 to 15.47 cents/kWh."

Looks like we're hitting around 8% yoy now...Looks like the price per kwh will have doubled in 10 years at present rate, add to that your demand will have doubled...multiply your electric bill by 4...

https://quickelectricity.com/cost-of-electricity-per-kwh-by-state/#:~:text=Between%20January%202022%20and%20January,13.72%20to%2015.47%20cents%2FkWh.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183700/us-average-retail-electricity-price-since-1990/

So if you're driving 10k miles a year and gas is $3.50 a gal...you travel 200 miles a week and get 20 mpg, that's 10 gallons a week or $35. a week times 4 weeks = $140. per month, that you no longer pay to the oil companies but now to the electric utilities...The average EV will consume 60kwh for 200 miles ...60kwh @ .$.15 per kwh = $9. times 4 weeks = $36. per month...We hit parity at around $.58 per kwh...

There are some New England states at around $.30 now..

Okay, but your parity conclusion is only valid if gasoline remains at $3.50 a gallon when electricity reaches $0.58 per kilowatt hour.

Gasoline remains at about $4.00 a gallon historically when adjusted for inflation...while electric prices have been dropping historically continually when adjusted for inflation...from about $.20 to about $.17 over the course of 40+ years..if these trends continue we will never reach parity...

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/gasoline-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/electricity-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/

I agree that electric power will remain a cheaper energy source for the consumer for the foreseeable future than gasoline. IMHO a major factor in this discount is the much lower cost of distributing electric power than gasoline. I was just pointing out a flaw or more accurately an unstated assumption in your comparison.

I think it's more the cost of production than distribution....

With the exception of repairs and maintenance, the distribution costs for electricity are a one-time expense. Distributing gasoline incurs a financial cost for each and every gallon delivered. This distribution cost differential is probably not the primary reason for the energy cost difference but I am sure it is a significant part of that difference.

https://electrek.co/2023/05/05/subsea-cable-maker-nexans/

For the last 26 years, I have been working for a major defense contractor where we design and manufacture defense equipment that goes on or into the ocean. The ocean is a very harsh mistress, unforgiving and very demanding. She has no pity for complacency or mediocrity. As such, anything that is designed for the ocean environment is VERY expensive. Off-shore wind is no exception. That is why off-shore wind is THE most expensive commercial electricity there is. Companies will make billions and billions in profits on the backs of the consumer where the utilities and states insist on forcing people to buy off-shore power for their homes.

I agree, this is interesting in that it could be done...the ultimate NIMBY answer...materials that can withstand the harsh environment of the ocean is an interesting field of study...

https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/the-longest-standing-fixed-offshore-platforms/

I read somewhere that the guy who designed the lighthouse at Alexandria had his own name carved into the granite at the base of the lighthouse. The king or pharo or emperor's name was carved into the plaster that was on top of the granite. Of course the plaster wore away...

A don’t believe the current electrical grid will take the extra load. And it would take years if not a generation to bring it to par.

Most people would not be allowed to recharge their electric vehicles at work. So when people get home immediately after work they plug in the vehicles to recharge. This is why many utilities now want to charge a premium during these hours. Don't forget that this is also the time window when many people will be using their electric kitchen appliances to cook dinner. The hope of this premium charging is enough people will use the "intelligence" in their vehicle chargers to charge while they sleep and lower the steep curve making the duck's neck.

Not to mention in the northern parts of the country, where you may need to keep your electric vehicles in heated garages in the winter.

Just wait for all the finger pointing and hand wringing when grids start crashing on a regular basis. When the big generators no longer have financial incentive to keep the large baseload units on line, we're in for a rough ride. And all the people that hoped to sell their "excess" energy back to the utility to help pay for those solar panels on their roof are going to be pissed when the utility blocks them from injecting that power back onto the grid. Or they can buy expensive batteries to store their excess power for later.

A brave new world we will live in where electricity is no longer a convenience, but a headache to maintain.

Well hydrogen production also offers a lifeline to traditional generating sources, they could keep the generators producing during the day by producing hydrogen...of course additional infrastructure will be required, there should not be any price difference or preference levied against non-green hydrogen producers...

Yep, both solar and wind energy generate more in afternoons, but folk heat or cool their homes when they return from work,will often re-charge their electric cars then also. We need to re-price power to create an incentive to move our power use to the afternoon, as solar power is now cheaper than gas or coal power. New sodium ion batteries will get cheaper, but water can also store heat or cooling until we need it, especially in bigger tanks that hold heat longer.

Poland has recently ordered the disconnection of some sustainable sources of power as a consequence of its grid not being resilient enough to cope with the amount generated - despite exporting lots to other countries, like Sweden.