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Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 5:48 PM

Transcendian recently proposed that we have poly sci section, which Chris immediately rejected, not without sound reason. I am perfectly happy to go along with Chris's desires, and understand the logic behind his decision.

On the other hand, I think there could be some benefit to a discussion about the interrelated nature of politics and engineering, morality and engineering, and ethics and engineering. (We could substitute science for engineering in this list, too.)

As scientists and engineers we have a moral responsibility, I believe, to advance the cause of rational thought, and to appropriately apply engineering and scientific reasoning to social issues. The costs of letting politicians decide energy policy, for instance, can be very, very high. By that, I don't mean the politicians are always witless, but that they have proven themselves to be capable of applying the sort of knee jerk responses to complex problems that scientists and engineers abhor.

I am perfectly happy to criticize GM for having created the county's deadliest vehicle for several years running (the Chevy Blazer) because there are near perfect comparisons in driver demographics and vehicle size and function with the Toyota FourRunner and the Nissan Pathfinder, which have been among the safest vehicles, as you would expect with reasonable engineering and large mass. Clearly, someone at GM said, "Who cares.. it makes money," just as they did with the Corvair, and with the older full size Blazers and pickups with unsafe fuel tanks; just as Ford did with the Pinto and Explorers.

As engineers, do we have a responsibility to say that bad designs are bad designs? That bad policy is bad policy? I think so. To expect morality at the highest levels of companies, at the level at which CEOs are rewarded for putting people out of work is too much to ask.

Personally, I think that the engineering of politics and the politics of engineering are both interesting topics for which there is no other forum on the web. In many political sites, some environmental sites, and even (particularly?) sites promoting a particular technology (the EEStore EESU comes to mind) the participants have little or no science background, so we cannot speak the same language. Here, in contrast, we have the advantage of a basic understanding of science, so can discuss the issues in some depth, rather than throwing simplistic generalities back and forth.

So I wonder if we can't give Transcendian's idea another look, even if only to discuss the value of discussion, and the parameters under which such discussions might work, without degenerating into name calling. By and large, we have done quite well, and I suspect we could do well if we go into such discussions with open eyes, maybe with a few additional rules, and with the knowledge that the section could be shut down if it proves non-productive.

There is nothing we do, as engineers, more important than doing the right thing. It is very hard to name a fundamental issue today that is not very deeply affected by engineering. (Most obviously, if we, as engineers, were developing systems which used no oil, there would be clear and obvious political implications. If we can supply every kid in the world with a laptop, and engineer the infrastructure to support that, we can change the world... maybe.)

Just a facility with math and some basic physics is a huge advantage for some of these discussions. The "hydrogen economy" sounds just peachy keen if you fail to do the math or think about the energy required to create hydrogen. In general, politicians live in sound bites, and engineers say, "but, wait, it's not that simple.." I think the two worlds need to meet more, rather than less.

But Chris is right, some of these discussions have been pretty crude. But at the same time, we all have the potential for learning, and learning to get along. In my own case, I remember Seaplaneguy and I being at one another's throats, but we get along just fine now. We've probably both grown in some, possibly important, ways.

Or not.

I'd be interested in hearing what others think.

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#1

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 6:59 PM

I wasn't sure the Chevy Blazer beat out the Ford Exploder (the ONLY SUV U-Haul will not rent to), but am willing to listen to your evidence.

Hows that for open-minded discussion? I'm being good, really Admin!

And as evidence of your point there is a discussion about the morals of nano going on in the blogs right now that has maintained, with some bumps, civility.

So I guess I am saying I am good with it. Anyone can always vote on a conversation with their feet. But the admins judgement prevails and I will abide by it either way.

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#13
In reply to #1

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 2:41 PM

Re the Blazer, here is a link, that in turn has a link to the IIHS report. Although GM has made the point several times that the study did not take into account driver behavior, the full study makes a good case for its methodology, I think. Unlike the Blazer, most cars produced in the subject years (2002-2005) received five star crash ratings, showing (to some extent) that the less-than-stellar crash test ratings translate into higher death rates in the real world.

I have seen no evidence, from personal observation, that Blazer drivers are "wilder and crazier" than FourRunner drivers or Pathfinder drivers. In fact, I think the demographics for the FourRunner are noticeably worse (for safety) than those for the Blazer -- at least it seems that I see more jacked-up Toyotas driven by young drivers than I do Blazers. The Honda Civic is pretty clearly the most modified car, and appeals most to the "wrong" demographic for safety, yet is safer statistically than the Blazer. Interesting that the Acura RS (which is a factory-made hopped-up Civic) is actually more dangerous statistically than the Civic itself -- although obviously, the vast majority of Civic drivers (especially those who buy new Civics) are ordinary economy car buyers, whereas most RS buyers are in the same demographic as Camaro drivers and Mustang drivers.

But the Explorer is right up there too. As are the likely suspects, like the Camaro and Mustang, and Acura RS -- which would support GMs case that drivers make a difference, but GM has been unable to supply any data that makes their case re the difference between the FourRunner and Blazer. If they are saying that dangerous drivers drive Blazers and safe drivers drive the competition, then they'd need to supply some data to convince me. It also seems like an unwise justification to make anyway -- why do you want to say that your products appeal especially to bad drivers?? "GM... we make the best durn vehicles for those with a death wish."

For quite a while Ford was one of my best clients, and Bridgestone was another. I met loads of good engineers at Ford, and I know many people at Bridgestone who are dedicated to building excellent tires. The very fact that several tires on the Ford-approved replacement list had and have documented real-world failure rates higher than those of the OE tires suggests very very strongly that the problem is with the vehicle: some people who had their tires replaced drove away with tires that were less safe than the originals. I like Billy Tauzin's questioning of Nassar.

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#14
In reply to #13

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 3:10 PM

I personally thought it was vile that Ford tried to push this all off on the tire makers.

My opinion all along:

JOHN LAMPE: Mr. Chairman, these are the facts. The loss of a tread or air in a tire shouldn't cause a driver to lose control of his vehicle. The driver should be able to pull over, not roll over.

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#2

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 9:43 PM

I am on the fence on this one. Those of us who know the ropes can find ways to express ourselves on these matters with restraint, tact and discipline (usually).

The opening of a section that openly embraces the type of argument that would surely follow a PolySci section may or may not be as cordial.

I mean after all; it's not like we don't discuss these matters now. We know we must 'play nice' and stay focused.

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#3

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 9:51 PM

HERE here. Or is that Hear Hear? Or is it maybe Hear here? Well you get the idea I hope.

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#4

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 9:53 PM

I think it gets too far away from what this website is supposed to be, which is a forum for science and engineering. I totally agree that we as scientists and engineers have a moral obligation to participate in politics and to discuss civics, however, I don't think that translates to a section here in CR4. That's my opinion.

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#5

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 9:59 PM

"As engineers, do we have a responsibility to say that bad designs are bad designs? That bad policy is bad policy? I think so. To expect morality at the highest levels of companies, at the level at which CEOs are rewarded for putting people out of work is too much to ask."

A responsibility yes, control no. It is an unfortunate reality that the bottom-line profit, and the question of whether it is illegal or not are the primary considerations of CEOs.

As you said politicians are looking for soundbites, in evidence the recent congressional hearings on the bailout for the US auto industry, a hot topic of conversation was who drove and how many were in the carpool?

Certainly someone in Congress successfully completed high school physics, and should easily realize that currently hydrogen is not a panacean energy solution, however it is politically popular.

As you said we can discuss issues here, but to what avail, can anything be changed?

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#6
In reply to #5

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 10:07 PM

..... is not a panacean energy solution, however it is politically popular.

I read this to mean that it is the most economically promising for business at this time. Complicated enough that we can't do it in our garages. Too difficult for carriers to spring up other than those that already exist. Etc..etc...status quo etc.

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#8
In reply to #6

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 11:38 PM

My meaning was that currently the technology is not in place to produce hydrogen from renewable or non-fossil fuel sources to an extent that it would be a practical solution, as far as large-scale automotive use.

Producing hydrogen from fossil fuel fired power plants through electrolysis would lead to a net energy loss, and likely increased CO2 emissions.

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#17
In reply to #5

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 9:23 PM

As you said we can discuss issues here, but to what avail, can anything be changed?

Call me Pollyanna, but I think things can change. (Oh no --- I feel something political coming on ...) Regardless of our various political persuasions, I think we can mainly agree that Obama's election had a lot to do with individuals speaking up -- he managed to get a phenomenally large number of small donations. That a guy with the middle name Hussein can be elected here is, I think, encouraging, as is the fact that a guy who couldn't sit anywhere on a bus when I was a kid, can now be president. That's a staggeringly huge change over what seems, to this old coot, to be a short period of time... and it has a lot to do with a lot of people doing what little they can.

Even the notion of a "hydrogen economy" has changed in overall perception over the last 5 years or so, largely because of the combined voices of people who think about such things. Although we may think that one party promoted the idea more than another, I think that both did so about equally, and both are now saying "Well, perhaps its not the panacea we thought it was." (Or more realistically: "Well it is certainly good that we poured billions of your money into researching hydrogen, because we can now see it is not the panacea the other party claimed it would be.")

I think we probably, individually, have more political power than we did 100 years ago, if we adjust for population. I doubt that politicians are fundamentally more crooked now than they were then. I don't have a lot of evidence to base those feelings upon, but if I had more time, it would be interesting to research.

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#7

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/04/2009 10:08 PM

A poli sci forum or blog on CR4 would probably "generate more heat than light." That would be a waste of bandwidth, so I can see why the Admins won't allow it.

However, an engineering ethics blog might be useful, as long as the goal is enlightenment. The blog owner needs to be someone who keeps up with the latest developments in engineering and technology, has an eye to spot ethical issues, and can start the discussion in a cogent manner. I'm not sure who that would be, but I know it's not me.

I can see the attraction between engineering and politics. Both seek to solve problems, to make things work or to make things work better. On the other hand, I can see the potential conflict between the two. Politicians like to be in charge of everything, engineers like to be in charge in what they do.

I remember a thread where someone put forth the idea that scientists and engineers should be in charge. The current president of Iran is an engineer, Bin Laden has an engineering background. Jimmy Carter is an engineer, Herbert Hoover was an engineer, and they are the two of the most critcized US presidents. Just because you know how to make a machine, an electrical circuit, or a program work doesn't mean you can fix an economy.

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#9

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 8:37 AM

you know how to make a machine, an electrical circuit, or a program work doesn't mean you can fix an economy.

not bad.

but I think an engineer can learn economics faster than an economist, especially the front has more strong math skill than the later.

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#10

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 8:38 AM

Politics in general is a form of human engineering - one us engineers are not noted for according to Dilbert. The art of frequently doing dumb things to get smart things done?

Perhaps in their greater experience our gurus are correct.

We can work out the details of solutions here.

There are plenty of places we can advocate to implement those solutions elsewhere.

And now having taken a firm stand on either side of the fence, like the Governor in The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, best I do the Sidestep Shuffle.

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#11

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 9:10 AM

No matter how you beg the question, the plitical topic is in the forum time to time.

you can easily find these issues. its not able to avoid. no matter how you show you are a pure engineer, none believes it, unless you live in a vacuum situation. you will not contact with anyone, anything, any oganization. any society.

is it possible?

I remember someone shout, CNPOWER, are you getting salary from your country and serve for it? yse, certainly yes, I answered, without any hasitaton.

Look, is it a pure politic problem? However , I think those who asked me such stupid problem is so naive and foolish.

it seems, they always dont know what the politics is.

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#12

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 9:39 AM

Hi Ken,

As a CR4 moderator, I support Chris' decision wholeheartedly. We've had to boot more users because of overheated political discussions than for any other reason. Some of the screed I had to scrub during the 2008 U.S. presidential election is a case in point. I don't mean to sound immodest, but the fact that you didn't have to wade through scores of "this candidate is the devil" threads means that we moderators were doing our jobs.

Still, I do share your sentiment that "there could be some benefit to a discussion about the interrelated nature of politics and engineering, morality and engineering, and ethics and engineering." In fact, if you look at many of my blog entries in places such as The Y Files or On This Day in Engineering History, you'll see that I touch on many of these topics. There are also other blogs and bloggers who address issues (such as the U.S. auto industry) that could, potentially, become overly (or entirely) political.

There is a way to talk about the issues you've mentioned, but it can't be with a "politics first" approach. That's part of the reason why a forum with a name like "Political Science" would be so problematic.

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#15
In reply to #12

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 4:25 PM

I don't mean to sound immodest, but the fact that you didn't have to wade through scores of "this candidate is the devil" threads means that we moderators were doing our jobs.

You don't sound immodest, at all. All of you do a great job not only in moderating but in coming up with a good workable design and keeping the site working. I occasionally visit an electric vehicle forum which, by comparison, is antediluvian in it crudeness. It is so tedious to navigate that I rarely visit it, even though it is directly related to my line of work.

Perhaps part of the reason that engineers often make poor politicians is their ability and tendency to "shave a point too fine". As if to demonstrate, I'll say there are differences among these three things: 1. talking about talking about politics (which is what we are doing here, with great civility) 2. talking about politics as it relates to engineering (which we can sometimes do with civility and tact) and 3. "talking politics", in other words, trying to advance a particular political view, which we do with less civility. In that middle land, there have been discussions of global warming, an engineering and science topic of great interest -- and those discussions have become quite heated -- but that is probably appropriate, as neither science nor engineering is fundamentally about "making nice" and both are more about "ok, prove it" or "present a plausible case for how what you say might be true".

I think a thread titled "Yet More Evidence for Human Cause of Global Warming" should not be summarily closed simply because it will likely become contentious. Likewise, I think that Transcendian's thread should not have been summarily closed because it might have become contentious or might have provided a consensus that there should be a place for discussing politics as it relates to engineering. I suspect it would have resulted in the same responses we've had to this thread, which have been cordial, and for me, at least, interesting: I find I can agree with essentially everything everyone has said: there are good reasons for avoiding political discussions, but at the same time, there are few places on the web where the engineering and science issues on which a lot of politics hangs can be discussed rationally. We probably do fine, just as it is, however, given your very good moderation.

Not too long ago, I attempted to put up some sort of vaguely disguised political screed here, which was removed without a trace almost instantly -- perfectly appropriately. Chris even wrote to explain why, and presented a very rational argument with which I could hardly disagree. You guys do a great job, and there is no need to muck things up.

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#16
In reply to #15

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 4:57 PM

Thank you for expounding on my brief statement/sentiment and and for your subsequent agreeable sentiments.

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#18
In reply to #16

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/05/2009 10:04 PM

You are quite welcome. Thanks too, for your responses.

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#19
In reply to #15

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/07/2009 7:52 AM

Most of people think the whole global climate getting warmer is not a bad thing.

it can provide human with more food and good living condition. then people will reduce building materials and energy dissipation. and then get to a new climatic balance.

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#20
In reply to #19

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/07/2009 9:04 AM

"most"? what data set are you looking at? Some African nations may disagree, it can also provide human with less food, and soft westerners will demand more aircon (after all their human rights are involved) meaning increased energy dissipation.

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#21
In reply to #19

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/07/2009 11:12 AM

I hadn't actually intended to open the subject of global warming for debate in this thread, but it is interesting to hear your perspective. In the west, the "debate" over global warming has, to a large extent, ended, with most people saying, yes, it is happening, yes, it is largely man made, and yes, it is a bad thing. A great deal of effort is therefore being put into reducing production of greenhouse gases. It is widely accepted that our current global warming trend is the in large part due to man-made causes (such as increasing amounts of CO2 being produced). It is also widely accepted that there is the potential for seriously negative consequences from additional warming, such as draught, famine, great extremes in weather leading to floods, and so forth. The dire consequences portrayed in the film "An inconvenient Truth" are not viewed as certainties, but are the cause of significant worry for at least the majority of the population in the west, I'd guess.

All of this is a matter of degree and perspective. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would guess that 80% of the population in the US (and at least that amount of the population in Europe) views global warming as a bad thing. Many people worry that Dr Lovelock's scenario, in which 80% of the earth's human population will be gone in 100 years, could actually come to pass.

Of course we can't predict the stock market, and predicting the climate future is more difficult. To me, it seems that the risks of doing nothing far outweigh the risks of doing something to minimize our impact in global warming and on the environment in general). If nothing else, the phenomenal changes required to reduce CO2 output (or to sequester CO2) provide loads of opportunities for jobs, innovation, and profit, all of which would help us out of this recession, so we can get back to buying China's products, and pay back the trillions you've loaned us.

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#22
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/07/2009 11:46 AM

I've seen the Al Gore's Movie, and thought it was a good thing.. til I read Michael Crichton's (may he rest in peace) "State of Fear".. now I tend to side with the notion that all is not what it appears in the publication of data about the situation.

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#23
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/07/2009 8:58 PM

80%? no, its really untrue. I dont think it's official statistic. Many of people in this number are cheated by TV, newpaper or some media, they dont know true, Im afraid. just like in China, TV, media boomed this speaking, but still many schollars in the world object to this unreliable data.

Just think of this fact, how much enviroment study scholars are there in this population? some of scholars have very side pioint of view. They cannt see how much profit carry to humanbeing from warmer climatic. Just like some politicans, while they enjoy benefit of modern civilization, but on other side, they object to the modern civilization. It seems only a few people can enjoy this comfort, but most of them must suffer from porverty and hungry etc.?

Do you know agricultrue? do you know the condition of plant growing up? do you know what is water crisis?

I wonder your west countries shout about this problem, but when act in practice, you still produce large cc car and drive and export to poor countries. you move higher pollution industry into poor and outpost villeges. it seems there would be no pollution if its out of signt.

most of degree, stock could be predicted in the way of statistic, many math work on this field and make a wonderful success. but your goverment is out of responsibility and its out of control, so that occured this financial crisis.

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#24
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 12:38 AM

You are right about the U.S., however Europe has taken steps to curb Carbon Emissions and in general drive fuel efficient cars. I think you have a monolithic view of "the west" when in fact it is filled with very different countries with very different policies and philosophies. I'd also like to point out that China produces more CO2 than the U.S. or Europe, so it seems a bit inconsistent to lecture "the west". However, using that same argument, the U.S. has no right to lecture CO2 pollution either as we are just as bad.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/13/climatechange.carbonemissions

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/03/080318-china-warming.html

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#25
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 4:50 AM

I agree to you. As there are four times population in china than in usa + europe. only in the process of respiration, they, of cause, will breath out more amount of CO2 than them all. needless to say to do other extra things.

There is only your one thread response so far, from this fact, the number of 80% is quite wrong.

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#26
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 8:12 AM

To reduce my emmissions I have begun to exhale only every other breath

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#27
In reply to #26

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 9:05 AM

To reduce my emissions... oh well. I have no control.... My wife threatened to get a plug.

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#28
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 9:06 AM

wow, your spirit is respectable, but dont make a joke on your health.

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#29
In reply to #25

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 9:19 AM

The CO2 emissions have little to do with exhaling, far more CO2 is released by burning fossil fuels. You're quite correct that China has 4 times the amount of people than the United States. Does having more people entitle a country to more natural resources and more pollution? Is that your argument?

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#30
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 10:04 AM

Hi, Pink,

I've just visited your blog. I admire you hve a excellent math and electric and chemical and biological knowledges. I cannt match you.

What I can only answer that China has more 4 times population than USA+EUP have. If there would be more pollution in their social or produce activity, there would not be too surprised. Its pity we have less resources than you and behind your technology.

Just think of London, that fog captal. because of industrial revolution. they hve only a little population compared with us.

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#31
In reply to #30

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 10:19 AM

Thank you for the compliment regarding my blog and my knowledge. It is nice to have someone like yourself in CR4 who can inform us with such a strong and intimate understanding of China (it is your home afterall). As for technology, China was ahead of the west for a long time, then the west caught up and passed China, now China is catching up. Technological advantage is transient.

London is foggy because of warm ocean currents coming into contact with cold air, not pollution. Please see the ocean current map below:

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#35
In reply to #31

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 8:23 PM

It looks like a Mobius strip, when have a glance over.

and stereo form, Clein bottle

and

But its out of my deepth.

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#33
In reply to #29

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 1:48 PM

Forgive me for chiming in on a question you asked cnpower.

Does having more people entitle a country to more natural resources and more pollution? Is that your argument?

Personally, I think that such would be a reasonable argument... at least more reasonable than the (more or less) opposite argument that rich people are entitled to use as many of the earth's resources as they can buy. In practice, the latter philosophy holds in the US but not so much in countries where conspicuous consumption is less the norm. There are still countries which are more like the US was in the 1950's when a 2000 square foot house was considered large, and where driving a 7000 lb vehicle would have been seen as obscene "showing off".

Rambling... I think that the notion that "hard work" is what gives you success, and that therefore if you work hard and are successful you are entitled to consume as much as you please is morally bankrupt. I have known many rich people (multimillionaire to zillionaire) and in getting to know them, there was very little to suggest that they worked as hard as (for instance) the immigrants who paint industrial equipment in factories while the factory continues to operate (hot, dangerous, smelly work, all while feeling powerless) or the people who toil in coal mines (cold, dark, damp, dangerous, all while feeling powerless). Contrast these hard jobs to some of my consulting work which is fun, done in comfortable surroundings, where I am very well treated, and well paid. It might be amusing and ego-gratifying to think that I work hard... but I have spent time in an underground coal mine, and know I do not work as hard as a coal miner. I've done jobs in which I would be happy to pay for the privilege -- I was able to log time flying jets and got paid for it (!) at a time when I was paying about $40 per hour to fly my own tiny plane.

So I think that a per-capita measure of consumption makes sense, and that in turn would entitle a high-population country to consume more and generate more pollution than a low population country. If we simply erase political borders, then that would mean that individuals, regardless of where they live, are entitled to consume equal amounts of the world's resources. If we were really interested in being fair, developing countries should be able to follow our course as we developed, namely raping the land without any concern for the future, and generally treating factory workers like dirt, without the benefit of OSHA standards, most of which we now accept as reasonable. (I think back to my pre-OSHA high school days, when I worked in a factory in which asbestos hung in the air thicker than a London fog... all day, every day.)

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#34
In reply to #33

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 2:14 PM

Here's why I'm against a "per capita" take on carbon emissions, and in making this argument I want to be clear that in no way am I justifying or defending the US policy (or lack thereof) for Greenhouse emissions.

Problem with a "per capita" measure of Carbon Emissions is that nature doesn't care. The only thing that matters to nature is the total Carbon Emissions. It's total carbon emissions that determine the level on global warming, it doesn't matter whether those emissions came from one person or 4 billion. Now I understand that the philosophy is supposed to be that we evaluating "fairness" by dividing output by the number of people benefiting. Although I think ignoring GDP in that equation seems inconsistant, I think the approach is hopelessly flawed to begin with. Please consider the following example.

Imagine I was granted my own country where I used oil for heating (because my country had a 6th month winter. By the per capita standard I would be one of the highest carbon polluters, by the total carbon footprint method I would be irrelevant. Clearly the later measure more accurately depicts my contribution from the point of global warming. Per capita is meaningless in this example.

I offer another example as to why the spirit of per capita is misplaced:

Imagine there is a mythical land where no one worked and stayed at home and watched T.V. all day. This country has no exports, produces no products, only lives off the wealth of former generation. Now imagine that there exists a country with twice the carbon footprint by a per capita basis that has robust industry and makes all the worlds products. Lets say if you stripped away this new countries industry it would use emit less carbon per capita than our original lazy nation. Doesn't it seem unfair to say that the lazy nation, because their per capita emissions are lower is a "greener nation". I would argue that although the other nation produces more emissions, because they produce many needed tangible assests for not much more emissions that they are the greener country.

Now consider that China produces more carbon emissions than the US but have 4 times the people, so on a per capita basis they seem better, but the US had a 5 times bigger GDP (Sold 5x more value than China) so on a per capita per GDP the US seems better.

I think the point is that there is no perfectly fair way to slice it so we should just stick to total Carbon Emissions, since ultimately that is all that matters.

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#42
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 12:44 PM

I should read up on the Kyoto protocols, because I really don't know what calculations are used. I'll have to get back to you, because I cannot come up with a quick answer to a hideously complex problem (and even after some thought, may not be able to come up with anything that both makes sense and also represents something that most countries would sign onto -- I suppose the fact that many countries have signed onto the Kyoto protocols means that it is a potentially reasonable compromise, but obviously it is much easier for some countries to sign on than others.

It is easy for Norway to be smug, I suppose, given that most of their energy is generated by hydro, but I think we do just as well in that respect, in the sense that we are using about all the hydro we can -- we simply can't generate enough with hydro to meet our needs, even if we scaled back our standard of living and production to a tiny fraction of what it is. France can also be smug -- although their approach is one we could emulate here... but here, nuclear sent chills up the spines of environmentalists, until recently.

In any case I'll have to respond more later. This disheartening aspect of all this is we are probably doing too little too late to avoid hard times ahead, if the models are valid... and it seems that confidence in the models has been increasing, rather than decreasing.

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#44
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 1:18 PM

I agree we are probably doing too little to late. There are economic benefits though to converting to say solar power, hydro power, etc. (As I'm sure you know). It sounds like the U.S. might actually start spending on developing these alternative power sources, but I've been disappointed in the past so I won't get my hopes up till the government demonstrates commitment.

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#32
In reply to #25

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 1:01 PM

Hi cnpower,

I used the figure 80% twice, once regarding Lovelock's claim, and once as my own guess of the percentage of people in the west who believe that global warming is happening, human caused, and bad. I assume you are referring to my guess.

Back in 2006, when there was more debate on the issue, a Time Magazine article (time.com - sorry, link no longer available) said that 88% of Americans believed that global warming threatened future generations. (Time and Newsweek are our two biggest circulation new magazines, with Time being slightly more conservative than Newsweek. Here, conservatives are more likely to deny the effects of global warming than liberals -- with Bush being a famous denier, who has since admitted that we could have a problem.) That Time issue was dated March 26, 2006, two months before the release of the film "An Inconvenient Truth", which made many more Americans aware of the effects of global warming. So, if anything, one would expect the 88% number to have gone up, not down.

One of our strongest political interest groups, the oil industry, has long fought against the notion that global warming is caused by burning fossil fuels, as well as the notion that it could have very bad consequences. There is no group on the other side of the issue with anywhere near as much money to spend in swaying public opinion. But even with all their money, the oil industry has been unable to convince the American population that the climate scientists who support what has now become the accepted view of global warming are wrong.

The IPCC fourth report (2007) said that, if I recall correctly, 90% of climate scientists were 90% or more certain that the current global warming trend was caused by human activities. The report pointed out many negative effects of global warming. Here is a summary of the report.

There is only your one thread response so far, from this fact, the number of 80% is quite wrong.

Of course, the number of thread responses have nothing to do with the truth or falsity of a statement. But you are probably right than the 80% figure is wrong -- it is probably a little too low. Perhaps 90% is what I should have written.

I've read through the summary report and lots of other material on the issues, but I am not a climate scientist, so I have to defer to their far better grasp of the issues. It seems that the people who really know the science are saying that global warming is a problem to be taken seriously. Although China is building many coal fired power plants, your vehicle fleet is more efficient than ours, and you are planning to build 3 times as many nuclear power plants as we are, and have five times as many under construction. Although nobody wants a nuke in their backyard, it seems like one of the better approaches to generating enough electricity to meet demand, at least from a CO2 perspective. It is also worth noting that your per-capita CO2 production is 1/10 ours, and that there are many highly-developed nations with higher standards of living than the US that have much lower carbon footprints than we do. One could reasonably argue that the US has a long long way to go in energy efficiency before we can serve as a positive example for the world.

We can only hope that your development proceeds more thoughtfully than ours has. It you get to the point where you are consuming as much energy per-capita as we are, and if the world continues to rely on non-renewable energy sources, we will all be in dire straights.

If you were referring to the other 80% figure, Lovelock's, then I'd have to say that I agree that his prediction seems pretty extreme, but it would be interesting to read the book.

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#36
In reply to #32

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 8:54 PM

it will take me a whole day to read.

However, I think the number you refer to is only a game, more or less. at side of words in media. some of journalist makes fuss about it.

In the column, there is only you insist on this. Global climate getting warming, it may be fact, but, is it a bad is still a problem. none can offer strong arguments to convince others so far.

My english is bad, I shal read slowly. and reply.

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#37
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/08/2009 9:45 PM

Your English is much better than our Chinese

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#38
In reply to #37

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 2:40 AM

My god, everyone who come here tease with this words.

Can you amend it for me in above threads?

haha, its unfair for me to come here. I help other many times but few like to do me a favour. Most of your west men are flayflint.

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#39
In reply to #38

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 2:57 AM

keep a moment. Im still reading.

just about 1/2.

However, I think you are also only read book, have not had a good think about it.

you hvnt reply me what temperature si suitable for crop grow? Do you like to live in a cool room withut a air condition in the cold winter days?

Do you like to walk to office instead of drive or take tube? do you like to travel long distance take by plane or by foot?

How do think about it around you, your friends your colleagues? and etc.

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#41
In reply to #39

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 8:54 AM

I would say I've spent a lot of time thinking about Global Warming. You are correct that I would rather Fly in a plane, live in a warm house, take a car or train when going large distances. I am not innocent.

However I don't think saying there is no problem just because I'm part of the problem is productive either. The point is that we need to admit we have a problem with Global Warming if we ever want to fix it. I think in the US we are finally starting to do that. At least I hope we are.

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#45
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 8:08 PM

You are talent, and I still stay at the level of popular secience reading with regard to DNA.

I like this answer, admit reality. and wish to do bettter.

Every thing has two sides, one is good and antoher is not good. I dont like so much high buildings, evenskysrapers , concrete roads etc. in the city, but we can do nothing about it. almost every country which has economic foundation will build such structure. This caused city getting more and more hot. and we have to use aircondition to cool. now you know the result from this cycle.

Every people like have a comfortable life, so this will change enviroment. wow, this will be huge topic afterward, lets cease it. and hand over it to goverment.

another side. the poor and district will get benefit from the warmer climate. I suppose from point of view of agriculture, living conditions and etc.however, the population f th poor people is more than the rich.

thats why I was not welcome by the rich?

just think of its nother than those richers who produce the greenhouse effect. the best bet is to do from thenself.

live in the area of Alaska, less food, no central heatiing equipment etc. then llook at , how will they shout?

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#40
In reply to #38

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 8:50 AM

That wasn't teasing, that was supposed to be complimentary. I was trying to say that you shouldn't apologize that your English isn't perfect. You can speak English and Chinese whereas I can only speak English. I was teasing myself.

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#46
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Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 8:19 PM

haha, its chinse humor. dont take it seriously.

you neednt say so. Im not a child. I know what can do, what not. Im not hypocritical.

its fact I really made light of studying foreign language in the past. we always think tech is the first. but it seems not true in the true world.

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#43
In reply to #36

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 1:12 PM

none can offer strong arguments to convince others so far.

The IPCC, composed of many scientists from around the world (whose countries stand to lose a lot in cost efficiency of production from policies designed to reduce global warming) overwhelmingly agree that the consequences of global warming are not good. (In fact, the US has supplied many of such scientists, but we have not ratified the the Kyoto treaty.) Although some plants benefit from a warmer environment, others do not. Thus, in large countries, certain areas of the country favor certain crops. Making fundamental changes in temperature and rainfall distribution could lead to widespread famine, because we cannot simply and quickly move all our farms from, for example, southern California, to New York City.

I appreciate your effort in reading through these posts, and admire your ability to communicate in both English and Chinese.

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#47
In reply to #43

Re: Poly Sci forum?

01/09/2009 8:36 PM

I knon these reports from kinds of organization and UN. I know some of the results. but I appear very privatism。I stand at my positon to see the problem.

Have you ever thought,, its because of you cannt gether crop fast afterward harvest, thats why new machines developped promptly. this offers more jobs for people. Man has to fight in his all life, no chance for him to enjoy without work.

its regualar from thousands of years.

one problem was overcome , another will occure. this is nature law. so man always has things to do.

I really forget most of my english. and laze to revise some, even endual mistake, grammer and spell etc. so wish you all can modify it as you see. I welcome and appreciate.

at the last, think of it by your own brain. not only quotation.

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