How Much Oil?

And, if it's, "now covering about 50 square miles", on the surface, what's the total volume that the spill occupies at the surface and through the 5,000 foot column that is being spread underwater?

87,500 gallons/hour is a lot to stop.

The truth is why are they not trying real stop measures? I have a real possible idea. They could use a ther-mite charge in the shape of a ring around the valve, and when detonated it would melt the valve and the sea pressure would close it and and cool it. The charge would only need to be enough to cause the metal to be ply-able. This seems to be a much better answer than golf balls and mud !!!

Because of some large uncertainties in the input, I can't even vouch for my own arithmetic, but it is almost the only arithmetic I have seen so far. Anyone can shake numbers out of a hat, and that looks like what is happening for the most part so far.

I haven't yet seen any reliable data on casing size, internal pipe size if different from casing, diameters of drill string components, wall thicknesses, pressures at various points in this system, etc. Temperature and viscosity of the oil would also be nice to know.

Congressional dingalings and the general public wouldn't understand any of this, nor would all that many lawyers. To some extent BP has to play to these inferior audiences, but it might be productive for them to share some relevant information to the general engineering world. Somebodies might then come up with decent outside ideas.

I have done some rough calculations since my original post.Using a common material, paint, for comparison the numbers are as follows:

A gallon of paint can cover roughly 300 square feet at a thickness of about .005".

A square mile of surface would require 92,928 gallons of paint to cover.

50 square miles would require 464,640 gallons.

Divide by 30 days, and you get an average of 15488 gallons per day.

Divide by 42 (gallons in a barrel of oil) and you get 36,876 barrels of oil per day, average.

And this only calculates a film thickness of .005", a mere sheen on the surface.

Some of the oil appears to be .250" or more thick, so multiply by 50 and the result is 18,438 BBL per day.

A big difference from the advertised 5000 BBL per day.

I still feel that this number is way too low, considering all the dispersant applied underwater.

Now why would BP want to minimize the amount of leakage?

Because penalties are based on quantities.

Now this is 2nd grade math,so anyone that cares to can do this calculation.Who does BP think they are going to fool?

Of course, the American educational system has been dumbed down over the years, perhaps this is college level math now.

The diameter of the pipe is 24".

It has 17000 psi,. minus a positive head of 2500 psi (water pressure).

I know from practical experience that a 6" pipe with 60 psi pressure will deliver about

a half million gallons per day (water, that is.)

It defies commons sense(which is evidently very uncommon) to believe the low numbers that BP has put out.

Of course, when you have a president that thinks we have 57 states, what do you expect from all the other cronies that follow his lead like well trained lap dogs?

I am sad for my country.I am sad for Lousiana, and I am sad for the ocean and all the species that dwell therein, and all of the species of the land and air, for a great curse has befallen them. If trees had legs, and could run, or wings and could fly,or gills and could swim, it would do no good,we would still hunt them down and grind them up and make our paper to scribble our words that start arguments,debates,and start wars,that end wars,that start marriages, that end marriages, that record births and deaths,and that are crumpled up and thrown away and piled up to form millions of Mount Trashmores all over the globe,that eventually, after millions of years and tectonic subduction,may form a magical substance called "OIL!" to be discovered by another transient species.

Excuse me for waxing a little philosophical there.Let me put it a little more succinctly:

"We're Screwed".

HTRN

Forgot to tell you I flunked 2nd grade math! Got some decimal points out of place on previous post.

Goota get more slzlep!And cofeeeeee!

Ok, had a good nap and a cup of coffee.

Let me try this again.

There are 27878400 square feet in a square mile

Divided by 300(number of square feet a gallon of paint can cover at .005")

92928 equals the number of gallons required to cover 1 square mile of surface area at .005" thick

Multiply .005 times 50 to get .250. (1/4 inch thickness of layer), so multiply 92928 times 50

This equals 4646400 gallons divided by 42, the number of gallons in a barrel of oil the result is 154880 barrels per day, the amount required to cover 1 square mile 1/4 inch thick.

Divide by 30 days, the result is 5162 Barrels per day per square mile

Multiply this by 50 square miles, and the result is 258100 barrels per day, average for 30 days.

Still a long ways from the advertised amount.

more coffee, more coffee!

jk.

what is the estimated size of the reservoir? How will the pressure reduce in the wellbore/reservoir over time, if the rate of flow is as suggested above? Is there any way of measuring and validating the wellbore pressure? (from before the incident perhaps?)

good stuff HTRN.

Chris

Below is a link to the estimates from the Purdue scientist who just went before congress. The new estimates range from 20,000 - 100,000 barrels a day.

From what I've read and heard its based on the videos of the leak. I also heard he has requested from BP more video linkage to help refine his numbers.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126809525

BP has no time to be calculating, They are trying to save the well...

I think an inflateable sock, deflated,inserted into the well bore, as close to the bottom of the borehole as possible, guided into place by a leader, similar to a heart stent, would do the job.To drive the sock deeper into the bore, you hit it with a water-hammer pulse,which will drive it furthur each time.When it is in position, you inflate it rapidly to prevent blowout back up the pipe.

The sock should be made of very durable material, perhaps carbon fiber,kevlar and possibly covered with stainless mesh with a rough surface to assist in gripping the pipe surface.

Once inflated, it can be filled with hydraulic cement and allowed to harden.