Milo,

I'm moving my office and have limited time, but I read this the other day and it scares me, too. I fear for the future on the entire area, their economy has been devastated for decades to come.

Thanks for the PM.

Lyn

Not to scare you more but with hurricane WILMA I have seen what erosion can do. With much lower speed and pressure. Rocks of 7 cubic yards, came out of the seabed and rolled over the island here like footballs. They can tumble down in the reservoir as well.

Oh goody some more to challenge us.

thats us not US.

I hope you get credit for your idea Dolf, and anyone else who comes up with a workable idea.

Hello Milo.

I had a similar discussion a few days ago (with an amateur well-capper advice-giver), and the end of my comment time, I said something like "We may just have to let it run out of oil or pressure. Then, it will stop."

This is sort of a hardball point, but I fear it might really be true.

Very scary scenario. I'm here in North Carolina, and I guess they are preparing for the possibility of oil reaching here by next month.

Well, that is odd...

It worked (or so I thought) for me a little while ago. I just tried it again, and it takes me to a different discussion (perhaps another place in the discussion, I don't know).

The comment the link now goes to is the same as one posted by CR4 member Randall here a few days ago.

???

Next we will have to compare the estimated volume of the oil reservoir with that of the Gulf of Mexico....

Together with some crude sort of dynamic analysis of how the leak rate will decrease with decreasing reservoir pressure as it is depleted.

Well, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

So far they are making better progress than expected with the relief wells and the progress on capturing greater percentages of existing gushing oil is improving and expectations are that by mid July there will be enough siphoning capacity to exceed that which is spewing out.

I think my prediction is that we will make out better than the worst predictions and learn a valuable lesson.

Anonymous Hero:

You wrote '.......and expectations are that by mid July there will be enough siphoning capacity to exceed that which is spewing out......'

'Expectations'? Expectations of whom? BP still contends that the amount gushing into the gulf is not knowable.... after continually downplaying estimated leading to a near constant ramp-up of the projections... starting at 1000 BPD, now up to 100,000 BPD in just two months.

If you truly trust BP then the only explanation is that the flow rate IS increasing. BP estimates over time equate to about a ten fold increase every month. So if we really are jumping in with both feet, and trusting BP to provide dependable estimates, then in order to overtake the flow gushing into the gulf, BP will have ramped up capability to siphon off 1,000,000 BPD by mid July and 10,000,000 BPD by mid August..... You know, just using their own figures.

While the preceding is not completely serious, some of the implications are. Namely, it is difficult to take more seriously than the preceding comment, any estimates hoping to assuage fears which are based on data provided by BP.

Slick BP, Real Slick!

BBB

Some of the oil is not coming to the surface, its floating under the surface.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/06/08/95554/subsurface-oil-may-mean-new-challenge.html

Milo,

I read enough of the linked blog to understand the gist of it. If this is true even 30%, it's time to bend over, put our head between our legs and kiss our butts goodbye. Even a half billion barrels in the Gulf would likely damage the world economy enough to throw us into a depression, severely impact the ecosystem for, what, 20% of the globe, affect food supplies, . . .

Are these guys the real deal?

I am curious!

Who drew the casing for this well?

What degree of UT was done, how tight was the helix and how hot was the setup?

I have been snooping around and hear nothing from my contacts, in fact silence from one in Houston.

Was the casing domestic or foreign?

It would make for another interesting thread.

I don't see a lot of problem with your alma mater Milo, so I have to wait and see what comes out of this.

Anyone find any links to the casing manufacturer?

I was able to find links to the blowout preventer manufacturer, Cameron, and wrote about it on my blog. But casing... All i hear is crickets.

I believe that that is an essential question, and the procurement docs won't have been on the platform itself...

As transcendian posted another day, This disaster will need another Richard Feynman for sensemaking.

Milo

I agree. Mr. Obama has told us publicly that he has the world's best and brightest working on this problem. There must be a Richard Feynman equivalent on his payroll. All I hear about is who is going to pay for this and how this problem must be managed. But I don't hear many technical details or suggestions relating to solving the problem.

www.wyman-gordon.com/

The casing is made from a co-extruded pipe. Inconel inside carbon steel, sometimes stainless. The nickel alloy is used for corrosion protection. A very big buck iteam...

As you can suspect...the welding together of these sections is a real trick!

Thanks for this.

Is it just me, or is the fact that there are no news items on their website newer than 2007 puzzling to others as well?

Milo

Where do you find that the casing is co-extruded pipe?

And this site is for forgings of fittings and the like, not pipe.

Here is a link to manufacturers of OCTG:

http://www.rigzone.com/search/c/companies/manufacturers_suppliers/tubulars/

This came to my mailbox recently [in 3 parts]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybgEZiyVdR4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FjzAWp5GUQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XOB-wBfVy8

Probably
a little late the relief wells & all.

My answer #15 was supposed to come here. I also lost the image of the house.

2 more drawings to update the efforts.

To keep this DOKYRO SLEEVE MEMBRANE SYSTEM

UNIVERSAL tops and bottoms easy adapts.

turn 90 degrees to the right please:

The sleeve is a roll, length to choose - here 1 MILE long - extendable to 3 MILES.

Works at all depths -

go to YOU TUBE - SAVING THE GULF - DOKYRO SLEEVE and hit please. It is for our environment.

For the new readers: the first house once more.

I to have received this in the post

SAVING THE GULF: The Dokyro Sleeve video in three parts

PART ONE
Part onehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybgEZiyVdR4

PART TWO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FjzAWp5GUQ

PART THREE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XOB-wBfVy8

Me too, from John Benneth

Part one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybgEZiyVdR4

should read

1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybgEZiyVdR4

2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FjzAWp5GUQ

3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XOB-wBfVy8

I really don't think a 5,000 foot plastic Hefty Trash Bag is going to cut it.

That assumes the well pipe is indeed fractured and at risk of eroding the sea bed around it.

What is the value of "cut" in this context? Poster didn't talk about cut but "contain a free flowing well- no back pressures" Nothing more than a membrane, that is now not present. Intestines work that way too. What happens with the spill now what a body should do without them. Just a mouth (intake) and let it find a way to exit?

If the well is fractured 1,000 feet below the surface, it is a matter of time before the sea bed floor simply starts oozing out oil and gas everywhere.

The current capture technique is pretty good except for two issues:

1. Lack of capacity to store or burn the amount of oil/gas that is currently is exhausted out the well head. This is an issue with having insufficient ships at BP's disposal, not the ability to capture oil/gas.

2. Lack of ability to disengage the capture ships in the event of a significant storm.

BP expects to have more ships on site within a week or two with a potential capacity to capture/burn all of the gushing oil.

BP is also working on a replacement manifold for the ships that will allow undocking if they need to bug out for a storm. That will be available in about 3 weeks.

The relief well progress is ahead of schedule, so far. That appears to be the best long term solution to the problem.

However, the stability of the well is what is in question here. Rumors abound that there are a number of fissures appearing on the sea bed floor pouring out gas and oil that are miles away from the current well site. If this is true, the theory is that the well fracture is opening up channels that extend out horizontally for miles before working their way up through the sea floor. What was once a single source leak may become hundreds fissures over hundreds of square miles of sea bed floor.

As far as a medical analogy for this situation, consider liver failure and the coagulation cascade of secondary hemostasis.

The body stops producing key coagulation proteins and essentially starts bleeding out internally. Unlike a single wound which can be patched or stopped, the failure of hemostasis bleeds out everywhere. You simply can't plug all the bleeds (there are literally millions) and the patient eventually dies from uncontrolled pulmonary hemorrhages (drowning in their own blood) and blood pressure failure.

This is a quote from the internet- I couldn't discover the source.

In the thinking and guessing, people lost time and still do.

>>>

I guess the person who 'proved' the world was round was Ferdinand Magellan, who was the first man to sail around the world. That was the first time it was conclusively proven that the world was round.

Note that he never disproved that a belief in flat Earth was wrong. Neither Magellan nor anybody he ever met believed the Earth was flat. All Europeans knew it was round. Other cultures may have thought it was a dome but nobody had ever thought it was flat.

____Those who have answered "Columbus" are completely wrong. Everybody knew that the world was a sphere by the time Columbus was born, and everybody already knew that you could sail west to get to India.

All that Columbus did was underestimate the size of the world. He calculated that it would be faster to sail wets to get to India than to sail East. Of course he was completely wrong. But the point is that he and everybody else had long since accepted that the world was spherical.

Do US schools still teach the myth that Columbus proved the world was round?<<< end quote

===========

With all respect, but as long the opposite has not been proved, Nobody knows this will not work.

We can have discussions, why not, but feelings are no part of my effort here.

They are filtered, invented, manipulated and spoon fed by the media. Of course you may disagree.

The problem is not the lack of a "straw" to drink up all of the oil and gas, but the capacity to store it when it gets to the surface - see post # 33.

While it is an interesting idea, of all the problems BP has with this situation, getting oil up to the surface to be collected appears to be the least of them.

Thanks for the answer.

While the separator can be sized to whatever size of spill, the tankers should be made available, by closing down other wells, the figure becomes questionable again when storing capacity on the shore and refining capacity bottleneck it.

I have reasons to believe that storage and processing the methane could be the problem. LNG hasn't been a big part of the US power supply.

I definitely agree with you about their limited "shipping and handling". But that is leading us into politics again.

other wells don't use tankers in the GoM. MMS does not allow FPSO's in the GoM, everything in the gulf has to be tied back to a pipeline. They are having to bring some in from Brazil but are running into problems with the Jones act. There are no US flagged FPSO's.

Thank you. Very interesting information. P.M. for you.

The Gulf of Mexico is about 660 x 800 miles. The well is 1 mile deep, and not too far offshore; so I will assume the average GoM depth is 1 mile. Thus its volume is 528,000 cubic miles ≈ 7.8 x 10¹⁶ ft³. TVP mentions 0.5 billion barrels as a volume of the oil reservoir. Allowing for uncertainty, let's WAG 1 billion barrels x 42 gallons ÷ 7.48 gallons/ft³ ≈ 5.6 x 10⁹ ft³. On these assumptions, if the whole reservoir leaks into the GoM, it will be (5.6 x 10⁹) ÷ (7.8 x 10¹⁶) ≈ 7.2 x 10^-8 = 7.2 x 10^-6%. Of course, the oil will not be uniformly distributed through the GoM, but this average of 7.2 millionths of a percent ought to mean a little something....

What amazes me as much as anything is the lack of arithmetic applied thus far. Billions and billions may sound big until compared with tens of quadrillions. (Look it up in your Funk and Wagnall if you're not familiar with these terms.)

While I agree that little math and/or engineering details have been made public, I don't believe you can estimate the severity of the problem by % volume contamination figures. The oil floating on the surface is a film that causes similar problems whether the gulf is 1.0 mile deep or 100 miles deep. Compared to the diameter of the earth, the atmosphere you breath is only a very thin film, but I think you will agree that it's important.

You are quite right. I was focusing on only one aspect of this problem. I will try later to calculate how thick the whole estimate reservoir would if it floats to the surface of the entire GoM.

14719795200000 ft² ~ in the gulf (using your estimate)

1 Billion barrels oil= 42 Billion gallons = 5614583333.271 ft³ oil

5614583333.271 ft³ oil divided by 14719795200000 ft² Gulf surface area

= 0.00038143 Ft = 0.0045771 inch or a little less than 5 mils.

0.3 um to 0.6 um is a visible continuous sheen.

4.5771 mils = 116.26 um

So if all the estimated reserve spills out, and it mostly rises above the water, it would be enough to form a visible continuous sheen over then entire Gulf of Mexico... Not one time, but 190 to 380 times over. A sheen over an area 190 to 380 times larger than the GOM.

I'm not sure how many Gulf of Mexico areas there are in the total seas of the world.

Losing the Gulf alone, even a small portion of it, is a horrible tragic blunder. This is far far worse. The repercussions may be significantly more severe and longer lasting than most 'worst case' scenarios have dared to consider.

Glib comments seeking to paint this as just another mild and easily surmountable difficulty, and empty appeals to everyone's desire that things were actually better than they are. It feels good to call people, "Greens', 'Alarmists', 'Nutcases', and imagine them wearing aluminum foil hats. It feels good to be on that side, NOT because you are a closed-minded bigoted xenophobe that guffaws at calling people names to settle disputes, that isn't the case at all. It feels good because it means you can dismiss the harsh reality. This is a very natural human reaction. If you have been doing this, forgive yourself, and you can begin evaluating the problem in earnest.

BBB

Dear Guest, Oil Crude, captured between booms can easily build up a thickness of 3 inches. The heavier components will float lower or sink down after a while. So can work out as it is with only a part of the Gulf, thank he***s? D

Thanks for continuing where I failed to get back. This is indeed more serious than earlier estimates, to which the reaction seemed alarmist. Not now.

Yours is one of distressingly few attempts to make reasonable assumptions and do basic arithmetic. A few suggestions have been plausible, many have been ill considered, and almost none have been quantified very well.

Hi,

if the layer were this thin then there would not be a big problem as the sun would crack the heavy parts and break down to reactive pieces that would react with oxygen from the air producing small particles rich in carbon with nearly no hydrogen in the molecules.

These particles would rain down to the bottom and be dispersed by currents and as no longer really toxic no big problem.

The problem is the intermediate fraction - not light and easy evaporating, not tar-like (heavy and inert) but in-between: highly poisonous and spoiling any water if there is only 1ppm of this oil in the water - regardless if dispersed, partly in solution, oxidised by bacteria or simply quasi inert: a thick layer of tar encapsulating a core of lighter and very poisonous oil, ready to break up somewhere in the waves and pollute.

RHABE

The "house of the rising oil" was our first answer to help out without compromising drill pipe and annulus. Erosion there is going deeper and all "counter pressure" will make it worse. FREE NATURAL FLOW TO THE SURFACE. The second principal extension was ready long before the riser was cut and matured to a full redundant emergency standby system Thanks to teamwork. I am very happy it came back to the forum. Thank you Garth. To give you all a full update: here the past and the present in the same infantile style: Sorry guys, I really couldn't turn it around.

This system reduces barrels spills to drops of spills.

By the way, they have been able to get a partial image of what is in the BOP. They took a Cobalt 60 source down on an ROV and radiographed as much of the BOP as they could get to and they have determined that one of the shear rams went to full extension and locked in place as it is supposed to but the other apparently did not, thereby crushing the casing hanger against the other side of the BOP but not shearing it or sealing the wellbore.

Just found new (to me ) feeds from the gulf

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/05/20/live-video-feed-webcam-gulf-oil-spill/

Multiple feeds this one is very good

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/bp-live-oil-spill-cam.html

Just a thought if the sea bed in question is not rock but is in fact a frangible material, and the drilling and explosion has cracked it, what if the sea bed in that area disintegrates completely over a large area, In effect the opposite of a cave in.

the sea bed is actually several tens of feet of mud with sandstone and shale and other sedimentary rock below that.

so as its not rock it would be possible after being disturbed for a large part of it to break up under the massive pressure below.

In fact the same thing that happens in a volcano, except instead of molten rock you have oil and gas under massive pressure that has now been given a route up from the bed through the sediment and is eroding the bore hole making fissures as it escape.

If i am right they may not be able to stop it because the leak is spreading out from the bore hole.

eh, no. as long as they can keep the pressure in the wellbore as low as possible (by keeping the restrictions to a minimum), the oil and gas will take the path of least resistance which is the wellbore itself. if they can keep things more or less stable for another week or two, then the relief well will be ready to kill it.

hope so

Physical Considerations—the Seabed -

Among the considerations, for example, are the characteristics of the seabed. The Deepwater Horizon drilling platform was on the BP lease in the Mississippi Canyon, in the north-central part of the Gulf of Mexico. This submarine trough has a length of about 120 km, and an average width of 8 km. A certain amount is known about this region, from a two-year program begun in 1980, utilizing a dense grid of high-resolution seismic and side-scan sonar mapping, along with deep borings, to get C-14 datings, in order to compose a time sequence for its stratigraphy and origins. Maps have been constructed to depict the various time periods, and presumed modes of origin of features of this formation. Involved in its history, are river and delta deposits from the Mississippi River, far back in time. But also, massive slumping off the edge of the continental shelf, that formed the trough.

Relatively large deposits of oil are found trapped between a salt canopy on top and sandstone or Miocene rock formations. The deepwater GoM deposits are world class oil finds, but the deapsea pressures and conditions, and frequency of severe storms are also world class factors. The latter were ignored by BP.

One engineer with long experience in offshore work, pointed out that new wells in this region can show high—in fact, record—flow rates, now exceeding 17,000 barrels a day. BP has reported that its Thunder Horse platform had wells delivering over 50,000 bpd. He warns that this constitutes a whole new realm of technical challenges which may be far beyond what can be economically achieved in a safe environment.

There are also mundane factors, such as the fact that there are reportedly in the range of 31,000 miles of underwater oil pipe in the Gulf of Mexico. BP's record of non-maintenance, makes much of this network an automatic hazard.

The BP well now out of control, is located in a lease in the Mississippi Canyon about 41 miles south of Louisiana. The well was put down through 5,000 feet of water, and then down 13,000 feet into the bedrock. There are deeper wells in the Gulf, but Deepwater Horizon, under BP's criminally negligent control, was deep enough for catastrophe.

Knowledgeable sources think that it's very possible there are cracks and fractures in the seabed of the Deepwater Horizon well explosion. In this immediate region, there is a layer of about 1,200 feet of compressed mud from a million years of outflow of the Mississippi River, lying on the bottom. The drilling may have hit a methane hydrate formation in this well, which caused an overpressure of 20,000 psi or so. The Blowout Protector (BOP) is built to handle 15,000. So it just blew everything. It could easily have fractured casing on the well, and worked through fractures in the rocks. This must be evaluated. Also, there is more confirmation of undersea plumes, and it is possible that they are coming from more than one location.

the above taken from

http://www.larouchepac.com/node/14774

http://niust.org/index.php/Seabed-Technology-Research-Center-STRC/

good response, not off topic.

Hi,

this is not at all off topic!

Geologic information is the base of any strategic planning.

a. The record flow rate is derived from low viscosity, high gas content, big pores in the reservoir or what else? Any or all of these factors? If these high flow rates are not handled by adequate connecting pipelines then there may be extreme pressure at the restricting valve.

b. The record pressure (where derived the 20,000psi?, this is a factor of 2 above the highest pressures in oil reservoirs that I ever heard). Be careful with pressure, only pressure difference will drive any flow. And the BOP will be subject to the difference of oil-reservoir-pressure minus bore-site environment pressure.

c. "Knowledgeable sources think that it's very possible there are cracks and fractures in the seabed of the Deepwater Horizon well explosion"

Very likely if the seabed is compressed mud without any strength and the underlying material cracked or faulty.

The BOP apparently did not blow up but may be a leak beneath did rupture the tubing so some oil vanishing into the seabed and migrating there and may be escaping there.

d. How much of this "oil" is so light that it will easily be evaporated by first contact to the atmosphere?

RHABE

Peter the problem is that you do not have the knowledge required to assess whether these so-called experts know their arse from an oil well. It is easy for someone to get on the internet and make claims of specific knowledge as you quite rightly pointed out about me earlier. You can believe me or not. It hurts me none either way. You are welcome to look back over all of my posts here to date and decide if I know what I am talking about or not. I have nothing to hide. And you know, I'm sharing my hard won knowledge with you for free out of the goodness of my heart and you are rejecting it for some person you've never even held a conversation with, electronic or otherwise.

I for one had decided not to bother trying to educate anyone here back when KY decided that the best thing to do was blow the whole thing up and he refused to listen to reason. But when Milo posted I knew him to be a reasonable person and decided to re-engage. Now I'm questioning the wisdom of wasting my time.

I'm done. believe what you like. we will soon know one way or another....

British Petroleum (BP) has a collection of 'bots' or ROV's, remotely operated vehicles, tethered underwater robots operating in the Gulf of Mexico near the blown out Macondo Well site, while they attempt to either plug the leak or at least find ways to recover and siphon off the leaking oil.

Sitting on top of the well pipe projecting from the seabed is the BOP, or Blow Out Preventer, the large steel 450 ton apparatus that you may have seen in various photographs and videos from BP's Live Feed as they recently cut off the top of the riser pipe that ran from the BOP to the Deepwater Horizon platform before it burned and sank.

There has been much speculation lately that the well bore is damaged below the seabed and that oil is leaking out of the well into the seabed underneath and around the BOP.

Keeping in mind that the BOP weighs 450 tons it would seem that if the seabed is becoming saturated with oil leaking through it that is only a question of time before the seabed will no longer have the structural strength to support the weight of the BOP and that it could fall off the top of the well pipe it is sitting on, releasing an uncontrolled and uncontrollable flow of oil into the gulf with no way of plugging or stopping it.

BP denies that oil or gas are leaking from cracks in the sea floor on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

This video was recorded from the Viking Poseidon ROV 1 on June 13th, 2010, and appears to show bursts of oil leaking from cracks in the seabed.

http://www.antemedius.com/content/oil-leaks-gulf-seabed-cracks-around-bps-well-site

sea bed cracking

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tn7FUdXfjEU

sea bed cracking

The explosion that sank the Deep Water Horizon oil rig did more than allow oil to flow unfettered from a well, it also caused a crack in the Gulf seabed. The cracked seabed cannot be capped or plugged, leaving only two alternatives according to experts, nuke it, or let it flow until it runs out of oil. The relief well will not stop the leak because the sea floor itself is leaking in at least 18 different areas.

While BP agrees to put $20 billion in an escrow account to cover damages to the gulf region, and while President Obama visits the region and pays lip service to a world audience on television, both know the Gulf region is rich in oil reserves and the last thing they really want to do is stymie America's ability to feed oil to the world's thirsty consumers.

There is no partisan politicking that matters here. Sure the GOP will use this against Obama, just as the Democrats used the Iraq War against Bush. When all is said and done both sides are really on the same side, and it's us against them.

The Crack

A renowned Russian scientist, who was called to the Deepwater Horizon site just days after the explosion, says oil is not just leaking from the well bore site, but from 18 different locations on the fractured seabed in the Gulf of Mexico.

The scientist, Anatoly Sagelevich said he and others, who inspected the site on the seabed in a deepwater submergence vehicle, were required by the US government and BP to sign a secrecy document. The document forbids them from saying anything about their findings to Americans or to the news media.

Senator Bill Nelson of Florida seemed to confirm the cracked seafloor claim in an interview with MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell. Nelson told Mitchell the government was looking into reports "that the well casing itself is actually piercing … underneath the seabed." He then confirmed to Mitchell oil was gushing up in several places in the seabed.

http://article.wn.com/view/2010/06/18/BP_tried_to_seal_well_cracks_weeks_before_leak/

Seems the linked article can't even spell Anatoly Sagalevitch's name correctly.

http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=is+the+gulf+leak+sea+bed+cracking&hl=en&newwindow=1&rls=com.microsoft:en-gb:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GZEU_en&prmd=v&ei=LxwhTJeHM43y0gT8oPjfDw&start=20&sa=N

The explosion that sank the Deep Water Horizon oil rig did more than allow oil to flow unfettered from a well, it also caused a crack in the Gulf seabed.

Hi,

this tiny explosion shall have cracked the seafloor 1500m deep down, shocking with considerable amplitude millions or more tons of water - never!

This at all was not an explosion in the scientific sense that the flame velocity exceeded the sound velocity but a deflagration a fast burning with considerable damage in the vicinity.

So if the seafloor is cracked - the video looks to support this, then this was done by the pressure from below. May be this cracks were existing for a long time and only now coming to our knowledge.

Usually any reservoir of oil or gas is contained from below by water and from above by a layer of humid clay - and thus plastically deforming if subject to strain from tension or bending but not deforming if compressed. This layer of clay is covered by layers of limestone or sandstone, shale and maybe loose sediments in the uppermost layer.

The reservoir is not like a big drop of oil but absorbed in small voids in the stony material of the reservoir.

So if there is one or some defects in the clay layer ail and gas will seep up, driven by pressure differential between the pressure inside the reservoir and the hydrostatic pressure of the aquifers deep down.

This way up is limited in flow rate by internal resistance of bleeding the reservoir - this seems to be very low in this well. And this internal resistance in series with the resistance of the tubing and the viscosity (very dependent on temperature) will define the flow rate. Look for Hagen-Poiseuille for a first estimate.

If at rising towards the surface the pressure drops and thus there will be some gas coming out of solution and further driving the flow by lowering the mean density.

Rising of fluids (any) in layered sediments (limestone, shale ...) with weak layers in-between will not take place vertically but along the lowest resistance.

Thus the rising oil may find a new reservoir to rest in for some more million years or may open big horizontally extended intrusions that may store the oil by bulging of above layers or may let pass the oil to the side or up with cracking.

This has happened naturally - the asphalt-lakes have formed by this action, evaporating the light fractions and leaving the asphalt forever.

If the natural sediments above this or other oil fields is this fragile so that there is a danger of naturally breaking the walls of the container then I think it better to drain the reservoir as fast as possible. Not so fast and uncontrolled as in this bad example but with a high priority to prevent damage.

This is only talking in principles and theory and the real situation may be much more complicated.

The seeping out of asphalt was mentioned in the Gilgamesh -Epos - one of the earliest known document of belief and history and was thought to be the door to hell.

The Babylonians used the stuff to glue the clay bricks into big and solid buildings - unfortunately weathered by any wet condition as the bricks not fired by lack of wood.

If the oil coming off the seafloor is only near the failed well then I would expect the non-intact cementing plus ? rupture of the tubing to be the origin.

If the seeping is widespread in the region then it is coming from deep down and there should be started soon a lot of new drillings to bring some pressure relief.

RHABE

what is miocene

http://openlibrary.org/books/OL20585202M/Split_rock_formation_(miocene)_and_moonstone_formation_(pliocene)_in_central_in_central_Wyoming

how sediments are formed

http://www.fi.edu/fellows/fellow1/oct98/create/sediment.htm

gulf of mexico history

http://www.gulfbase.org/facts.php

this is slightly OT, but not exactly OT as it is related to the topic at hand.

"this is UNACCEPTABLE", says this woman repeatedly. Kindra Arnesan, a Venice LA local was granted security clearance to see all the horrors of the front lines and behind-the-scenes "works" of the BP GOM Catastrophe. see her interview here. "it's all ponies and balloons", she says.

maybe the brave in the land already ought to be making a stand by now.

http://www.emaxhealth.com/1275/bp-oil-spill-dangerous-chilrens-lungs

Is crude oil dangerous? Oh yes. Most of the toxic chemicals man use come from crude.

http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=is+crude+oil+dangerous&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-gb:IE-SearchBox&ie=&oe=&rlz=1I7GZEU_en&redir_esc=&ei=TNslTOfRHpDu0wTf-MC7BA

Now and in the days ahead, it is critical to protect your children's health and your own from the effects of the BP oil spill in the Gulf. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that people avoid close contact with the oil spill and the fumes that arise from the burning oil, especially if you or your children have asthma or any other respiratory or lung condition.

You don't need to be among the oil spill cleanup crews to suffer health consequences from the Gulf oil spill. The CDC notes that people may be able to smell fumes from the oil spill from the shore, and that what people detect is from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that can include benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and naphthalene.

Although the CDC states that "the level of vapors in the air will be below the level that can hurt you," people may still experience headache, vomiting, or nausea. Exposure to even low levels of VOCs can cause irritation of the eyes, nose, throat, and skin. People who have asthma may be more susceptible to the effects of inhaled VOCs. The agency also recommends parents contact their pediatrician if their children develop any symptoms associated with contact with oil or oil fumes.

Spending time on the beach, swimming, and fishing are traditional summertime activities, but in areas affected by the oil spill, people are urged to avoid touching any of the oil or tarballs they may find. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains that tarballs are composed of crude oil that mixed with water to form an emulsion that can look like chocolate pudding. This emulsion is much thicker and stickier than the oil from which it was formed. As waves and winds break up this emulsion, it can form small pieces, called tarballs, that can be as small as coins or as large as pancakes.

Physical contact with tarballs can result in a rash or an allergic reaction to the chemicals in the oil, including hydrocarbons. Anyone who makes contact with tarballs should wash the affected area with soap and water, baby oil, or a safe cleaning compound like a cleaning paste available in auto supply stores. Solvents, kerosene, diesel fuel, or gasoline should never be used to remove the oil from a tarball.

People who are in the area of an oil spill should avoid outdoor physical activities, especially when it is possible to smell the oil and fumes. Close windows and doors at home and turn on your central air conditioner or use the recirculation mode to reuse indoor air.

Parents should monitor air quality reports in their area for any changes in wind direction and other weather changes. If oil is being burned, particulate matter from the burn may reach the shore. Particulate matter can get into the lungs and irritate throat and lung tissue.

The CDC does not believe drinking water and household water will be affected by the oil spill, although recreational water has already been impacted in some places. Everyone should heed any public health guidelines and warnings about the use of beaches and coastal waters for swimming, fishing, and boating.

Dispersants have been used to help break up the oil slick from the spill. For most people, brief contact with a small amount of dispersants should be harmless. However, longer physical contact can irritate the skin and cause rash and dryness, while the toxic chemicals can also irritate the eyes, throat, and lungs.

Parents who are concerned about exposure to oil or dispersants and its impact on their children's health and their own should contact their physician. The American Academy of Pediatrics has information on its website regarding children and environmental disasters, and the CDC has information on its web site for healthcare providers. At this point, the best defense against harm from the oil spill is avoidance, especially for children.

SOURCES:
American Academy of Pediatrics
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&newwindow=1&rls=com.microsoft:en-gb:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GZEU_en&q=compounds+crude+oil&revid=631651235&sa=X&ei=xtslTM_VCdO7jAe1nfB8&ved=0CFYQ1QIoBw

comment from local about pollution in the gulf

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread587020/pg1

http://www.arkema-inc.com/literature/pdf/371.pdf

Links that may be usefull for viwers.

It would appear all is not going well (no pun intended) all efforts so far have failed

http://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/2931/723575/

http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/

http://www.epa.gov/bpspill/qanda.html

http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2010/05/watch-oil-leak-into-gulf-from-deepwater.html