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Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/21/2010 1:39 PM

For engineers who would like to understand some of the system and process issues, this industry insider post will give you plenty to think about and a crystal ball for what seems likely to become a very unpleasant future...

Here is the key point:

"First of all...set aside all your thoughts of plugging the well and stopping it from blowing out oil using any method from the top down. Plugs, big valves to just shut it off, pinching the pipe closed, installing a new bop or lmrp, shooting any epoxy in it, top kills with mud etc etc etc....forget that, it won't be happening..it's done and over. In fact actually opening up the well at the subsea source and allowing it to gush more is not only exactly what has happened, it was probably necessary, or so they think anyway.

So you have to ask WHY? Why make it worse?...there really can only be one answer and that answer does not bode well for all of us. It's really an inescapable conclusion at this point, unless you want to believe that every Oil and Gas professional involved suddenly just forgot everything they know or woke up one morning and drank a few big cups of stupid and got assigned to directing the response to this catastrophe. Nothing makes sense unless you take this into account, but after you do...you will see the "sense" behind what has happened and what is happening. That conclusion is this:

The well bore structure is compromised "Down hole".

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

Now It all begins to make sense.

Milo

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#1

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 1:44 PM

Milo,

I'm moving my office and have limited time, but I read this the other day and it scares me, too. I fear for the future on the entire area, their economy has been devastated for decades to come.

Thanks for the PM.

Lyn

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#19
In reply to #1

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/22/2010 1:58 AM

Not to scare you more but with hurricane WILMA I have seen what erosion can do. With much lower speed and pressure. Rocks of 7 cubic yards, came out of the seabed and rolled over the island here like footballs. They can tumble down in the reservoir as well.

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#20
In reply to #19

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/22/2010 2:29 AM

Oh goody some more to challenge us.

thats us not US.

I hope you get credit for your idea Dolf, and anyone else who comes up with a workable idea.

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#21
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Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/22/2010 2:57 AM

The only challenge is to create something that works and helps the planet. All the rest I have been through many many times during my life time. More comments will probably be censored. I hope everything from everyone works, but it doesn't. And who will believe a man with a garbage bag. Isn't that not what we all use to get rid of our spills? Do we need to leave it to the fish, when it comes to water? They use it on the beach.

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#2

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 1:58 PM

Hello Milo.

I had a similar discussion a few days ago (with an amateur well-capper advice-giver), and the end of my comment time, I said something like "We may just have to let it run out of oil or pressure. Then, it will stop."

This is sort of a hardball point, but I fear it might really be true.

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#3

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 3:03 PM

Very scary scenario. I'm here in North Carolina, and I guess they are preparing for the possibility of oil reaching here by next month.

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 3:11 PM

Well, that is odd...

It worked (or so I thought) for me a little while ago. I just tried it again, and it takes me to a different discussion (perhaps another place in the discussion, I don't know).

The comment the link now goes to is the same as one posted by CR4 member Randall here a few days ago.

???

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#5
In reply to #4

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 3:59 PM

I edited my post after it started working again, seems fine now. Earlier, three tries gave me same result- web page unavailable.

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#6

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 4:55 PM

Next we will have to compare the estimated volume of the oil reservoir with that of the Gulf of Mexico....

Together with some crude sort of dynamic analysis of how the leak rate will decrease with decreasing reservoir pressure as it is depleted.

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#7

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 5:27 PM

Well, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

So far they are making better progress than expected with the relief wells and the progress on capturing greater percentages of existing gushing oil is improving and expectations are that by mid July there will be enough siphoning capacity to exceed that which is spewing out.

I think my prediction is that we will make out better than the worst predictions and learn a valuable lesson.

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#72
In reply to #7

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/22/2010 9:03 PM

Anonymous Hero:

You wrote '.......and expectations are that by mid July there will be enough siphoning capacity to exceed that which is spewing out......'

'Expectations'? Expectations of whom? BP still contends that the amount gushing into the gulf is not knowable.... after continually downplaying estimated leading to a near constant ramp-up of the projections... starting at 1000 BPD, now up to 100,000 BPD in just two months.

If you truly trust BP then the only explanation is that the flow rate IS increasing. BP estimates over time equate to about a ten fold increase every month. So if we really are jumping in with both feet, and trusting BP to provide dependable estimates, then in order to overtake the flow gushing into the gulf, BP will have ramped up capability to siphon off 1,000,000 BPD by mid July and 10,000,000 BPD by mid August..... You know, just using their own figures.

While the preceding is not completely serious, some of the implications are. Namely, it is difficult to take more seriously than the preceding comment, any estimates hoping to assuage fears which are based on data provided by BP.

Slick BP, Real Slick!

BBB

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#8

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 6:09 PM

Some of the oil is not coming to the surface, its floating under the surface.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/06/08/95554/subsurface-oil-may-mean-new-challenge.html

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#9

Re: Gulf Spill Likely to get Worse

06/21/2010 7:29 PM

Milo,

I read enough of the linked blog to understand the gist of it. If this is true even 30%, it's time to bend over, put our head between our legs and kiss our butts goodbye. Even a half billion barrels in the Gulf would likely damage the world economy enough to throw us into a depression, severely impact the ecosystem for, what, 20% of the globe, affect food supplies, . . .

Are these guys the real deal?

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#10

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/21/2010 8:35 PM

I am curious!

Who drew the casing for this well?

What degree of UT was done, how tight was the helix and how hot was the setup?

I have been snooping around and hear nothing from my contacts, in fact silence from one in Houston.

Was the casing domestic or foreign?

It would make for another interesting thread.

I don't see a lot of problem with your alma mater Milo, so I have to wait and see what comes out of this.

Anyone find any links to the casing manufacturer?

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/21/2010 9:22 PM

I was able to find links to the blowout preventer manufacturer, Cameron, and wrote about it on my blog. But casing... All i hear is crickets.

I believe that that is an essential question, and the procurement docs won't have been on the platform itself...

As transcendian posted another day, This disaster will need another Richard Feynman for sensemaking.

Milo

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#12
In reply to #11

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/21/2010 11:36 PM

I agree. Mr. Obama has told us publicly that he has the world's best and brightest working on this problem. There must be a Richard Feynman equivalent on his payroll. All I hear about is who is going to pay for this and how this problem must be managed. But I don't hear many technical details or suggestions relating to solving the problem.

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#26
In reply to #11

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 10:48 AM

www.wyman-gordon.com/

The casing is made from a co-extruded pipe. Inconel inside carbon steel, sometimes stainless. The nickel alloy is used for corrosion protection. A very big buck iteam...

As you can suspect...the welding together of these sections is a real trick!

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#27
In reply to #26

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 10:58 AM

Thanks for this.

Is it just me, or is the fact that there are no news items on their website newer than 2007 puzzling to others as well?

Milo

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#29
In reply to #26

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 12:09 PM

Where do you find that the casing is co-extruded pipe?

And this site is for forgings of fittings and the like, not pipe.

Here is a link to manufacturers of OCTG:

http://www.rigzone.com/search/c/companies/manufacturers_suppliers/tubulars/

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#13

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 12:04 AM

This came to my mailbox recently [in 3 parts]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybgEZiyVdR4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FjzAWp5GUQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XOB-wBfVy8

Probably
a little late the relief wells & all.

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#16
In reply to #13

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:38 AM

My answer #15 was supposed to come here. I also lost the image of the house.

2 more drawings to update the efforts.

To keep this DOKYRO SLEEVE MEMBRANE SYSTEM

UNIVERSAL tops and bottoms easy adapts.

turn 90 degrees to the right please:

The sleeve is a roll, length to choose - here 1 MILE long - extendable to 3 MILES.

Works at all depths -

go to YOU TUBE - SAVING THE GULF - DOKYRO SLEEVE and hit please. It is for our environment.

For the new readers: the first house once more.

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#17
In reply to #13

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:41 AM

I to have received this in the post

SAVING THE GULF: The Dokyro Sleeve video in three parts

PART ONE
Part onehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybgEZiyVdR4

PART TWO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FjzAWp5GUQ

PART THREE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XOB-wBfVy8

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#18
In reply to #17

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:47 AM

Me too, from John Benneth

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#24
In reply to #17

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 8:35 AM
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#25
In reply to #17

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 8:42 AM
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#28
In reply to #25

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 11:27 AM

I really don't think a 5,000 foot plastic Hefty Trash Bag is going to cut it.

That assumes the well pipe is indeed fractured and at risk of eroding the sea bed around it.

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#30
In reply to #28

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 12:30 PM

What is the value of "cut" in this context? Poster didn't talk about cut but "contain a free flowing well- no back pressures" Nothing more than a membrane, that is now not present. Intestines work that way too. What happens with the spill now what a body should do without them. Just a mouth (intake) and let it find a way to exit?

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#33
In reply to #30

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:37 PM

If the well is fractured 1,000 feet below the surface, it is a matter of time before the sea bed floor simply starts oozing out oil and gas everywhere.

The current capture technique is pretty good except for two issues:

1. Lack of capacity to store or burn the amount of oil/gas that is currently is exhausted out the well head. This is an issue with having insufficient ships at BP's disposal, not the ability to capture oil/gas.

2. Lack of ability to disengage the capture ships in the event of a significant storm.

BP expects to have more ships on site within a week or two with a potential capacity to capture/burn all of the gushing oil.

BP is also working on a replacement manifold for the ships that will allow undocking if they need to bug out for a storm. That will be available in about 3 weeks.

The relief well progress is ahead of schedule, so far. That appears to be the best long term solution to the problem.

However, the stability of the well is what is in question here. Rumors abound that there are a number of fissures appearing on the sea bed floor pouring out gas and oil that are miles away from the current well site. If this is true, the theory is that the well fracture is opening up channels that extend out horizontally for miles before working their way up through the sea floor. What was once a single source leak may become hundreds fissures over hundreds of square miles of sea bed floor.

As far as a medical analogy for this situation, consider liver failure and the coagulation cascade of secondary hemostasis.

The body stops producing key coagulation proteins and essentially starts bleeding out internally. Unlike a single wound which can be patched or stopped, the failure of hemostasis bleeds out everywhere. You simply can't plug all the bleeds (there are literally millions) and the patient eventually dies from uncontrolled pulmonary hemorrhages (drowning in their own blood) and blood pressure failure.

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#31
In reply to #28

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:07 PM

This is a quote from the internet- I couldn't discover the source.

In the thinking and guessing, people lost time and still do.

>>>

I guess the person who 'proved' the world was round was Ferdinand Magellan, who was the first man to sail around the world. That was the first time it was conclusively proven that the world was round.

Note that he never disproved that a belief in flat Earth was wrong. Neither Magellan nor anybody he ever met believed the Earth was flat. All Europeans knew it was round. Other cultures may have thought it was a dome but nobody had ever thought it was flat.

____Those who have answered "Columbus" are completely wrong. Everybody knew that the world was a sphere by the time Columbus was born, and everybody already knew that you could sail west to get to India.

All that Columbus did was underestimate the size of the world. He calculated that it would be faster to sail wets to get to India than to sail East. Of course he was completely wrong. But the point is that he and everybody else had long since accepted that the world was spherical.

Do US schools still teach the myth that Columbus proved the world was round?<<< end quote

===========

With all respect, but as long the opposite has not been proved, Nobody knows this will not work.

We can have discussions, why not, but feelings are no part of my effort here.

They are filtered, invented, manipulated and spoon fed by the media. Of course you may disagree.

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#34
In reply to #31

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:43 PM

The problem is not the lack of a "straw" to drink up all of the oil and gas, but the capacity to store it when it gets to the surface - see post # 33.

While it is an interesting idea, of all the problems BP has with this situation, getting oil up to the surface to be collected appears to be the least of them.

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#36
In reply to #34

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 2:51 PM

Thanks for the answer.

While the separator can be sized to whatever size of spill, the tankers should be made available, by closing down other wells, the figure becomes questionable again when storing capacity on the shore and refining capacity bottleneck it.

I have reasons to believe that storage and processing the methane could be the problem. LNG hasn't been a big part of the US power supply.

I definitely agree with you about their limited "shipping and handling". But that is leading us into politics again.

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#37
In reply to #36

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 2:59 PM

other wells don't use tankers in the GoM. MMS does not allow FPSO's in the GoM, everything in the gulf has to be tied back to a pipeline. They are having to bring some in from Brazil but are running into problems with the Jones act. There are no US flagged FPSO's.

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#38
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Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 3:16 PM

Thank you. Very interesting information. P.M. for you.

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#14

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 12:18 AM

The Gulf of Mexico is about 660 x 800 miles. The well is 1 mile deep, and not too far offshore; so I will assume the average GoM depth is 1 mile. Thus its volume is 528,000 cubic miles ≈ 7.8 x 1016 ft3. TVP mentions 0.5 billion barrels as a volume of the oil reservoir. Allowing for uncertainty, let's WAG 1 billion barrels x 42 gallons ÷ 7.48 gallons/ft3 ≈ 5.6 x 109 ft3. On these assumptions, if the whole reservoir leaks into the GoM, it will be (5.6 x 109) ÷ (7.8 x 1016) ≈ 7.2 x 10-8 = 7.2 x 10-6%. Of course, the oil will not be uniformly distributed through the GoM, but this average of 7.2 millionths of a percent ought to mean a little something....

What amazes me as much as anything is the lack of arithmetic applied thus far. Billions and billions may sound big until compared with tens of quadrillions. (Look it up in your Funk and Wagnall if you're not familiar with these terms.)

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#23
In reply to #14

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 7:14 AM

While I agree that little math and/or engineering details have been made public, I don't believe you can estimate the severity of the problem by % volume contamination figures. The oil floating on the surface is a film that causes similar problems whether the gulf is 1.0 mile deep or 100 miles deep. Compared to the diameter of the earth, the atmosphere you breath is only a very thin film, but I think you will agree that it's important.

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#80
In reply to #23

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/23/2010 1:18 AM

You are quite right. I was focusing on only one aspect of this problem. I will try later to calculate how thick the whole estimate reservoir would if it floats to the surface of the entire GoM.

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#86
In reply to #80

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/27/2010 12:47 AM

14719795200000 ft² ~ in the gulf (using your estimate)

1 Billion barrels oil= 42 Billion gallons = 5614583333.271 ft³ oil

5614583333.271 ft³ oil divided by 14719795200000 ft² Gulf surface area

= 0.00038143 Ft = 0.0045771 inch or a little less than 5 mils.

0.3 um to 0.6 um is a visible continuous sheen.

4.5771 mils = 116.26 um

So if all the estimated reserve spills out, and it mostly rises above the water, it would be enough to form a visible continuous sheen over then entire Gulf of Mexico... Not one time, but 190 to 380 times over. A sheen over an area 190 to 380 times larger than the GOM.

I'm not sure how many Gulf of Mexico areas there are in the total seas of the world.

Losing the Gulf alone, even a small portion of it, is a horrible tragic blunder. This is far far worse. The repercussions may be significantly more severe and longer lasting than most 'worst case' scenarios have dared to consider.

Glib comments seeking to paint this as just another mild and easily surmountable difficulty, and empty appeals to everyone's desire that things were actually better than they are. It feels good to call people, "Greens', 'Alarmists', 'Nutcases', and imagine them wearing aluminum foil hats. It feels good to be on that side, NOT because you are a closed-minded bigoted xenophobe that guffaws at calling people names to settle disputes, that isn't the case at all. It feels good because it means you can dismiss the harsh reality. This is a very natural human reaction. If you have been doing this, forgive yourself, and you can begin evaluating the problem in earnest.

BBB

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#87
In reply to #86

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/27/2010 1:36 AM

Dear Guest, Oil Crude, captured between booms can easily build up a thickness of 3 inches. The heavier components will float lower or sink down after a while. So can work out as it is with only a part of the Gulf, thank he***s? D

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#88
In reply to #86

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/27/2010 2:07 AM

Thanks for continuing where I failed to get back. This is indeed more serious than earlier estimates, to which the reaction seemed alarmist. Not now.

Yours is one of distressingly few attempts to make reasonable assumptions and do basic arithmetic. A few suggestions have been plausible, many have been ill considered, and almost none have been quantified very well.

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#89
In reply to #86

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/27/2010 3:59 PM

Hi,

if the layer were this thin then there would not be a big problem as the sun would crack the heavy parts and break down to reactive pieces that would react with oxygen from the air producing small particles rich in carbon with nearly no hydrogen in the molecules.

These particles would rain down to the bottom and be dispersed by currents and as no longer really toxic no big problem.

The problem is the intermediate fraction - not light and easy evaporating, not tar-like (heavy and inert) but in-between: highly poisonous and spoiling any water if there is only 1ppm of this oil in the water - regardless if dispersed, partly in solution, oxidised by bacteria or simply quasi inert: a thick layer of tar encapsulating a core of lighter and very poisonous oil, ready to break up somewhere in the waves and pollute.

RHABE

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#15

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:19 AM

The "house of the rising oil" was our first answer to help out without compromising drill pipe and annulus. Erosion there is going deeper and all "counter pressure" will make it worse. FREE NATURAL FLOW TO THE SURFACE. The second principal extension was ready long before the riser was cut and matured to a full redundant emergency standby system Thanks to teamwork. I am very happy it came back to the forum. Thank you Garth. To give you all a full update: here the past and the present in the same infantile style: Sorry guys, I really couldn't turn it around.

This system reduces barrels spills to drops of spills.

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#22

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 3:41 AM

Hi Milo and others,

I do not believe totally in the claims posted in "the oil drum".

There have been oil reservoirs seeping since thousands of years to the surface from high pressure fields through 300m not too strong natural sediments. (in Iraq)

So if the structure of the impaired well in the Gulf is really collapsing then it may come out as "the oil drum" argues: there is enough oil and gas, there is enough pressure and this will find a hole to the surface and blow and blow and blow.

But if the collapse is behaving like sand or mud and there is enough weight from seafloor to oil-reservoir then this is restricting the oil flow. May be not totally but better than now.

This is a matter of resistance inside the oil field to outside to seafloor. Like a current from an electrical generator is limited by the internal plus external resistor.

So: how much pressure is down there in the oil field? How much mud (no strength as long as near liquid) needed to overcome the pressure? What about leaking through mud, sand, pebbles or other fine-grained material, this seems to have a very high resistance (pressure/flow rate). Why can a pressurised fluid break open conduits through a continuous material?

What is the geological structure between the failed BOP and the oil reservoir? This structure is strong, if not there would not be an oil reservoir with a lot of pressure!

So if the well (any artificial structure) is nearly destroyed then there will be the remaining many thousand feet of tubing that will give considerable resistance and this will not wear out quickly. (May be good may be bad).

Did anybody calculate how much oil-flow is possible by the known pressure and well diameter? This may be still laminar flow that is governed by a large length to diameter ratio!

So what should be done:

1. stabilising the BOP against buckling by replacing the mud around the upper part of the tubing by coarse grained sand/pebbles/concrete/stones.

2. refine the structure and operation of the "dome" so that all the upwelling oil and gas can be captured.

3. organise separation and storage and transport of oil and gas in order to avoid flaring these huge amounts of valuables.

RHABE

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#32

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 1:23 PM

First off, the oil drum is populated by a number of peak oil tin foil hat wearers, that said, many of them are decent technicians, but they also see conspiracies behind every piece of rig equipment too, so you have to take what they say with a small grain of salt.

Yes the wellbore is compromised, the 9-5/8" casing hanger failed and is currently lodged in the BOP. Part of it was sticking up out into the riser and it was what the diamond wire saw hung up on. This was the reason it is believed that the blind shear rams were unable to close. too much steel in the bore for the blades to shear. Everything from the 9-5/8" casing transition down is open hole and exposed to the reservoir. Further BP used a much riskier well design than was appropriate for a exploratory well in a previously undrilled formation. Furthermore they used far too few centralizers to keep the casing centered in the open hole during cementing operations.

Now as to the gas seeps, they are over 7 miles away from the wellbore and are not likely to be connected with the well. they are believed to have been an existing natural seep. Which underlies the fact that the geology of the area is riddled with gas pockets and fractures. The listing of the BOP can be attributed to the loads that were placed on it when the Deepwater Horizon sank and the riser buckled, and are likely being exacerbated by the weight of all the equipment including Enterprise's LMRP sitting on top of it. Yes, they will need to connect guy wires to it fairly soon I would expect but so far there is no indication that the reservoir is communicating with the surface. As long as we can keep the well pressure low the likelihood that it will break out and communicate with the surface outside the wellbore is still pretty low. The first relief well is less than 200' horizontally from the well and has about 6000-6500 ft vertically to go. they plan to intersect the wellbore at around 16,700 to 17,000 ft they are currently around 10,500ft down and are ahead of schedule but moving ahead cautiously. they plan to actually bypass the intended intersection point to allow the magnetometers in the MWD package to accurately locate the casing and then back up and sidetrack to hit the wellbore. This is the most difficult part of the relief well process. If they can get the relief well in place and pumping cement before the reservoir can break out to communicate with the surface, they will be able to kill the well. I would put the likelihood of the oil drum scenario at between 10 and 15% at this point, but it IS a scary scenario to be sure.

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#35
In reply to #32

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 2:31 PM

By the way, they have been able to get a partial image of what is in the BOP. They took a Cobalt 60 source down on an ROV and radiographed as much of the BOP as they could get to and they have determined that one of the shear rams went to full extension and locked in place as it is supposed to but the other apparently did not, thereby crushing the casing hanger against the other side of the BOP but not shearing it or sealing the wellbore.

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#39

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 3:26 PM

Just found new (to me ) feeds from the gulf

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/05/20/live-video-feed-webcam-gulf-oil-spill/

Multiple feeds this one is very good

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/bp-live-oil-spill-cam.html

Just a thought if the sea bed in question is not rock but is in fact a frangible material, and the drilling and explosion has cracked it, what if the sea bed in that area disintegrates completely over a large area, In effect the opposite of a cave in.

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#40
In reply to #39

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 3:31 PM

the sea bed is actually several tens of feet of mud with sandstone and shale and other sedimentary rock below that.

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#41
In reply to #40

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 3:45 PM

so as its not rock it would be possible after being disturbed for a large part of it to break up under the massive pressure below.

In fact the same thing that happens in a volcano, except instead of molten rock you have oil and gas under massive pressure that has now been given a route up from the bed through the sediment and is eroding the bore hole making fissures as it escape.

If i am right they may not be able to stop it because the leak is spreading out from the bore hole.

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#42
In reply to #41

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 3:49 PM

eh, no. as long as they can keep the pressure in the wellbore as low as possible (by keeping the restrictions to a minimum), the oil and gas will take the path of least resistance which is the wellbore itself. if they can keep things more or less stable for another week or two, then the relief well will be ready to kill it.

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#43
In reply to #42

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 4:06 PM

hope so

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#44
In reply to #42

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 4:12 PM

i made my comments based on this. link

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/06/13/bp-gulf-oil-spill-seafloor-oil-gas-leak-videos-photos/

There have been several reports of oil and gas leaking on the cracks in the Gulf of Mexico seafloor which may cause problems with BP capping the gushing oil well.

Although BP denies that there is oil or gas leaking from the cracks in the sea floor many people watching the BP Oil leak cam have witnessed explosions and leaks from the seafloor.

I discussed this issue in detail when I was recently interviewed by Fintan Dunne.

Well those reports from Senator Nelson and Matt Simmons among other experts are now confirmed and if you didn't already now it could be really bad news.

As Keith Olbermann put it on his MSNBC show "Countdown" when reporting about the possibility of the sea floor leaking "What's Worse Than Doomsay? … This is It".

In any case, BP denying these reports is absolute proof that BP is not being truthful about what is really going on the sea floor.

The Government really needs to step in at this point and allow independent outsiders such as James Cameron assess the situation on the Gulf of Mexico sea floor.

This also indicates BP is putting on a pony show until the relief wells can be completed.

However several experts including Matt Simmons and Dr. Stephen A. Rinehart have came forward and said if the well casing is blown because we do indeed have leaks coming from cracks in the sea bed it could cause problems with the relief wells.

They warn that leaks in the seafloor from broken well casing could allow cement from the relief well to escape from the damaged well casing which would prevent the cement from curing.

According to Business Week and several other sources experts have also warned that the relief wells could take until December to complete and that doesn't even factor blown well casing into the time line.

The US government cannot allow BP to waste time leaving this well leaking until December only to find out that the relief wells won't work because BP has been lying about the integrity of the well casing the entire time.

Watch! Video of oil leak coming from cracks in a rock on the seafloor

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#49
In reply to #44

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:14 PM

"BP denying these reports is absolute proof that BP is not being truthful about what is really going on the sea floor."

Sorry, but that's the most fallacious logic I have seen all year.

"The Government really needs to step in at this point and allow independent outsiders such as James Cameron assess the situation on the Gulf of Mexico sea floor."

You are kidding, right? James Cameron is a film director of science fiction. Why would you trust someone to manage an environmental disaster who's sole credentials of expertise are based in the world of computer animated non-reality?

"The Government really needs to step in..."

The track record of the government so far isn't much better than Hollywood. Some of these officials have their head so far up their butt that they need a dentist to extract it.

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:26 PM

It would appear that Peter has drunk the Kool-Aid... the poor sod is doomed now...

Peter, I hear the Heavy Duty Reynolds Wrap works best.

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#51
In reply to #50

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:31 PM

I assume your mocking me ?

I can only comment on the information i have available. But as i have discovered before on this site there are a few on their site who dont like some of the comments i make, well tough

and there is the evidence from so called experts and video evidence.

Or i can take you word for it, and as i have no proof of who you are or what you qualified in, you will pardon me if i believe the video evidence.

and what appears to perfectly logical that the bore hole has weakened the crust or sea bed

also as i am on the other side of the world what happens to your country has no intrest to me.

ps i have no idea what heavy duty reynalds wrap is. some american cling film perhaps

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#52
In reply to #51

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:40 PM

Peter, those so called "experts" over at "The Oil Drum" are a bunch of nutcases who believe we are running out of oil too, I've already told you that. This very reservoir should not even exist by their way of thinking! It is 2.5 BILLION barrels of oil that they claim should not even exist, so excuse me if I think they are a bunch of crackpots.

I've worked in the oilfield for close to 25 years, and I have a very wide circle of acquaintances and former co-workers that have access to all sorts of inside information. Heck, I designed some of the equipment they are using.

What you are seeing on the video are bursts of mud stirred up by ROV thrusters. The gas seeps are seven and a half miles away from the wellhead. Way too far away to be connected to this well.

I think I'm just a TAD more qualified to talk than a few other people here.

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#53
In reply to #52

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:42 PM

Reynolds wrap is heavy gauge aluminum foil btw.

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#55
In reply to #52

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:49 PM

You may have worked in the industry for 25 years but based on the way the incident in the gulf has panned out you will pardon me for not taking anyone who works for the oil industry seriously as most of the damage to the planet has been caused by people like yourselves who are all experts,

i am sure all the people who work for trans ocean and bp are all experts, and its all these experts that have got us into this mess.

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#57
In reply to #55

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:58 PM

kindly turn in your car keys and every scrap of plastic you own then.

Thank you.

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#60
In reply to #57

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:05 PM

Physical Considerations—the Seabed -

Among the considerations, for example, are the characteristics of the seabed. The Deepwater Horizon drilling platform was on the BP lease in the Mississippi Canyon, in the north-central part of the Gulf of Mexico. This submarine trough has a length of about 120 km, and an average width of 8 km. A certain amount is known about this region, from a two-year program begun in 1980, utilizing a dense grid of high-resolution seismic and side-scan sonar mapping, along with deep borings, to get C-14 datings, in order to compose a time sequence for its stratigraphy and origins. Maps have been constructed to depict the various time periods, and presumed modes of origin of features of this formation. Involved in its history, are river and delta deposits from the Mississippi River, far back in time. But also, massive slumping off the edge of the continental shelf, that formed the trough.

Relatively large deposits of oil are found trapped between a salt canopy on top and sandstone or Miocene rock formations. The deepwater GoM deposits are world class oil finds, but the deapsea pressures and conditions, and frequency of severe storms are also world class factors. The latter were ignored by BP.

One engineer with long experience in offshore work, pointed out that new wells in this region can show high—in fact, record—flow rates, now exceeding 17,000 barrels a day. BP has reported that its Thunder Horse platform had wells delivering over 50,000 bpd. He warns that this constitutes a whole new realm of technical challenges which may be far beyond what can be economically achieved in a safe environment.

There are also mundane factors, such as the fact that there are reportedly in the range of 31,000 miles of underwater oil pipe in the Gulf of Mexico. BP's record of non-maintenance, makes much of this network an automatic hazard.

The BP well now out of control, is located in a lease in the Mississippi Canyon about 41 miles south of Louisiana. The well was put down through 5,000 feet of water, and then down 13,000 feet into the bedrock. There are deeper wells in the Gulf, but Deepwater Horizon, under BP's criminally negligent control, was deep enough for catastrophe.

Knowledgeable sources think that it's very possible there are cracks and fractures in the seabed of the Deepwater Horizon well explosion. In this immediate region, there is a layer of about 1,200 feet of compressed mud from a million years of outflow of the Mississippi River, lying on the bottom. The drilling may have hit a methane hydrate formation in this well, which caused an overpressure of 20,000 psi or so. The Blowout Protector (BOP) is built to handle 15,000. So it just blew everything. It could easily have fractured casing on the well, and worked through fractures in the rocks. This must be evaluated. Also, there is more confirmation of undersea plumes, and it is possible that they are coming from more than one location.

the above taken from

http://www.larouchepac.com/node/14774

http://niust.org/index.php/Seabed-Technology-Research-Center-STRC/

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#69
In reply to #60

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 8:34 PM

good response, not off topic.

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#81
In reply to #60

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/23/2010 4:31 AM

Hi,

this is not at all off topic!

Geologic information is the base of any strategic planning.

a. The record flow rate is derived from low viscosity, high gas content, big pores in the reservoir or what else? Any or all of these factors? If these high flow rates are not handled by adequate connecting pipelines then there may be extreme pressure at the restricting valve.

b. The record pressure (where derived the 20,000psi?, this is a factor of 2 above the highest pressures in oil reservoirs that I ever heard). Be careful with pressure, only pressure difference will drive any flow. And the BOP will be subject to the difference of oil-reservoir-pressure minus bore-site environment pressure.

c. "Knowledgeable sources think that it's very possible there are cracks and fractures in the seabed of the Deepwater Horizon well explosion"

Very likely if the seabed is compressed mud without any strength and the underlying material cracked or faulty.

The BOP apparently did not blow up but may be a leak beneath did rupture the tubing so some oil vanishing into the seabed and migrating there and may be escaping there.

d. How much of this "oil" is so light that it will easily be evaporated by first contact to the atmosphere?

RHABE

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#59
In reply to #55

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:03 PM

And I suppose you are going to get us out of it eh? How many oil wells have you drilled, or more importantly how many blowouts have you brought under control? What exactly are your credentials? You used to be an auto mechanic if I recall and worked for the UK version of AAA. How exactly does that qualify you to comment intelligently about an oilwell blowout? I worked for five years for a company that specialized in oil well blowouts and fires. Saddam Hussein made us very rich with his eco-terrorism. I think I know just a bit about the subject.

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#65
In reply to #59

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:45 PM

YOU NEED TO LEARN HOW TO READ AND UNDERSTAND THE WORDS.

ALL I HAVE DONE IS POST INFORMATION FROM OTHERS I HAVE NOT MADE ANY STATE MENTS QUESTIONS YES.

ALSO WHY IS IT THAT ONLY YOU BIG HEADED SPECIALISTS ARE ALLOWED TO MAKE STATEMENTS BUT US NORMAL PLEBS ARE NOT.

PLEASE REMEMBER IT IS YOU SPECIALISTS THAT CAUSED THIS PROBLEM IN THE FIRST PLACE.

IF THE SO CALLED SPECIALLISTS HAD DONE THEIR JOB CORRECTLY WE WOULDNT BE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION, WOULD WE ??

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#67
In reply to #65

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 8:23 PM

Peter the problem is that you do not have the knowledge required to assess whether these so-called experts know their arse from an oil well. It is easy for someone to get on the internet and make claims of specific knowledge as you quite rightly pointed out about me earlier. You can believe me or not. It hurts me none either way. You are welcome to look back over all of my posts here to date and decide if I know what I am talking about or not. I have nothing to hide. And you know, I'm sharing my hard won knowledge with you for free out of the goodness of my heart and you are rejecting it for some person you've never even held a conversation with, electronic or otherwise.

I for one had decided not to bother trying to educate anyone here back when KY decided that the best thing to do was blow the whole thing up and he refused to listen to reason. But when Milo posted I knew him to be a reasonable person and decided to re-engage. Now I'm questioning the wisdom of wasting my time.

I'm done. believe what you like. we will soon know one way or another....

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#75
In reply to #65

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 9:25 PM

I think the issue comes down to the difference between an informed opinion and an uniformed opinion.

As an example, I consider my opinions uninformed because my expertise is not in off-shore drilling. I suspect that you are in a similar boat.

Nevertheless, we can spout our uniformed opinions freely, but I don't expect anyone to take it too seriously. At least not as seriously as someone who has experience in the field, which there are one or two in CR4.

Specialists do make mistakes. However, if I were to go into surgery and the surgeon makes an error, it would be wiser of me to enlist the counsel of other surgeons than to throw up my hands in disgust and rely on advice from my local baker instead.

Your opinion on that scenario may differ, so feel free to seek the advice of a Hollywood director and ostracize the remaining deep water drilling experts that are employed by Big Oil if that is your pleasure. However, my opinion is that you would be throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Also, you appear to be quite biased toward Big Oil. Again, I am not chastising you for your position, but you should at least consider that if you do have such a bias that it may affect your decision making process on the subject.

In this instance you want to reject all opinions from individuals associated with oil production because, in your own words, all of them caused the problem. However, that is a fallacy in argument (Guilt by Association), so how will that impact your ability to get the best information on the subject if you categorically reject a whole segment of data?

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#77
In reply to #75

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 9:49 PM

I dont understand i havent said anything.

in my posts before i was attacked i did ot express an opinion i just posted links etc

i am only now expressing observations based on the postings from.

Anonymous Hero and Rorschach who are the only ones who can give opinons

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#78
In reply to #77

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 10:20 PM

Peter, I never attacked you personally and I have no reason to. You seem like a fine guy to me. Gee, with that big smiley face for an avatar how can anyone not like you. :-) <== That was a little humor. ;-)

However, I have pointed out a few fallacies in your arguments. There is a difference in faulting someone and faulting someone's argument.

Initially, I did add a little dry humor, but it was intended to keep things a little light, yet I did want to get a few points across, too.

Anyone can give opinions and feel I have a right to do it, but I also realize I don't have a right to expect anyone to take them seriously. Nothing you have said really offends me. However, I think you may have leaned into Rorschach a little bit hard.

The other thing about this forum is that it is full of engineers. Engineers live in the world of peer review and tend to examine everything said with a critical eye. So, there tends to be a lot of challenges to data and opinion when it is posted. Most of us expect to be cross-examined and tend to do the same when someone else makes a statement.

If you have not had that experience before it can be a little overwhelming and you tend to feel everyone is attacking you. However, if you just let it roll off your back you will soon realize that no one means you any ill. It is just the way engineers live and work and it actually is a positive thing.

Anyway, Peter, I hope that you don't let this get you too upset and I really do look forward to seeing your smiley avatar more in future posts.

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#76
In reply to #59

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 9:25 PM

yes one of my many jobs in the 42 years i have been working was that of an auto mechanic which i did for 4 years.

just because one isnt in a particular industry does not mean they do not have knowledge of that industry, That is very small minded of you if you beleive that.

and as i have stated a few times now i havent given any comments about the oil well just information,

As i have stated before you need to learn how to read.

so dealing with blow outs in the desert is the same as dealing with a blowout 1 mile down in sea water is it, with only an ROV to work with, Hmm i dont think you need to be an expert to realise that statement is rubbish

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#68
In reply to #51

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 8:23 PM

Hang in there Peter, we have a lot of armchair quarterbacks here.

To many Americans think the world revolves around them and the rest of you should think, talk, and act like they do.

I, for one, enjoy most all of your posts, very enlightening, thought provoking, and they always end up with provenance.

Since the culprit is British (in the eyes of a lot), I commend you, a citizen of the UK for taking this professional and non biased stance.

As I have stated and posted before, I have worked on BP's casing and I find so much wrong information here as in all of the past posts.

Any astute thinker never nay-says another idea, analyzes all that has been presented before making a conclusion, and constantly brain sails.

Keep up the posts, my dear associate.

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#70
In reply to #68

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 8:47 PM

Thank you for that.

My posts on this matter where not intended to put anyone down i was just posting what i had found.

i did not offer any opinions on the subject, just posts.

and as you have noticed the fact that BP may or may not be British has nothing to do with my postings, I have no Loyalty to anyone or any country,

The problem as i see it with BP has a common theme with all large business the people at the top have no idea whats going on at the bottom where the work is done.

Every industry i have worked in has had idiots in charge at all levels and BP is no different, the latest disaster has no impact on the people at the top, It may affect their bonus`s and thats about it.

I live in a country run by morons who have under the last government have almost bankrupted the country, spending our money all over the world whilst putting up taxes for the workers to pay for it all.

almost 50% of my earnings go to the government, then when i buy things like fuel goods etc i have to pay more tax.

the people at the top, the government are not affected by all these taxes as they get £60.000 pa plus all their expenses which is my tax payments.

they get to enjoy themselves have a good life and enjoy holidays, nice cars, nice houses.

I cant afford a holiday or house.

the British government no doubt like most governments and large business are run by idiots who are out of touch with the workers.

I will now pull out of this discussion.

long live the common person, the world would be in even more sh*t without them.

the end

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#71
In reply to #70

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 9:01 PM

I will be pulling out also.

It was fun and informative until the big egos took over as they have been doing a lot the past year. I am by no means an expert, but I know what I have personally seen and done, not like some who are being fed by others.

On the subject of the casing, I know why we did extra surveillance, chemistries, and closely checked the metallurgy.

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#54
In reply to #50

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:43 PM

IS THIS WHAT YOU MEANT ?

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#56
In reply to #54

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 5:57 PM

yep. some one who has drank the kool-aid is someone who has made up their mind and is not willing to listen to reason, much like the people of Jonestown who knew that the kool aid was poisoned and forced their kids to drink it and then followed suit themselves knowing it would kill them all.

the reynolds wrap comment was a allusion to the kooks who put tin foil over their heads to keep the government radio transmitters from controlling their brains. they tend to be Schitzophrenics who hear voices and think it is the government trying to control their minds. it is an allusion to the conspiracy theories that many of these people hatch about black helicopters and government mind control and stuff like that.

The Oil Drum is populated by people who see conspiracy theories behind everything so their motivations are somewhat questionable.

I tend to follow Occam's Razor: "Do not attribute to malice that which can more easily be explained by incompetence."

BP screwed up, they screwed up big time. They didn't do it out of malice, just simple greed. MMS screwed up, not out of malice, but simple incompetence. Transocean and Halliburton knew what BP was doing was wrong but they are the customer and they call the shots, if they complained too loudly, they'd be sent packing. BP still thinks they are part of the British Gov. and they think they can get away with anything, and more often than not, they do until it blows up in their face.

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#79
In reply to #56

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/23/2010 1:18 AM

Hi Rorschach, there is a private message sitting in your mailbox. Can you please check? Thanks

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#45

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 4:18 PM

British Petroleum (BP) has a collection of 'bots' or ROV's, remotely operated vehicles, tethered underwater robots operating in the Gulf of Mexico near the blown out Macondo Well site, while they attempt to either plug the leak or at least find ways to recover and siphon off the leaking oil.

Sitting on top of the well pipe projecting from the seabed is the BOP, or Blow Out Preventer, the large steel 450 ton apparatus that you may have seen in various photographs and videos from BP's Live Feed as they recently cut off the top of the riser pipe that ran from the BOP to the Deepwater Horizon platform before it burned and sank.

There has been much speculation lately that the well bore is damaged below the seabed and that oil is leaking out of the well into the seabed underneath and around the BOP.

Keeping in mind that the BOP weighs 450 tons it would seem that if the seabed is becoming saturated with oil leaking through it that is only a question of time before the seabed will no longer have the structural strength to support the weight of the BOP and that it could fall off the top of the well pipe it is sitting on, releasing an uncontrolled and uncontrollable flow of oil into the gulf with no way of plugging or stopping it.

BP denies that oil or gas are leaking from cracks in the sea floor on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

This video was recorded from the Viking Poseidon ROV 1 on June 13th, 2010, and appears to show bursts of oil leaking from cracks in the seabed.

http://www.antemedius.com/content/oil-leaks-gulf-seabed-cracks-around-bps-well-site

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#46

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 4:19 PM
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#47

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 4:34 PM

sea bed cracking

The explosion that sank the Deep Water Horizon oil rig did more than allow oil to flow unfettered from a well, it also caused a crack in the Gulf seabed. The cracked seabed cannot be capped or plugged, leaving only two alternatives according to experts, nuke it, or let it flow until it runs out of oil. The relief well will not stop the leak because the sea floor itself is leaking in at least 18 different areas.

While BP agrees to put $20 billion in an escrow account to cover damages to the gulf region, and while President Obama visits the region and pays lip service to a world audience on television, both know the Gulf region is rich in oil reserves and the last thing they really want to do is stymie America's ability to feed oil to the world's thirsty consumers.

There is no partisan politicking that matters here. Sure the GOP will use this against Obama, just as the Democrats used the Iraq War against Bush. When all is said and done both sides are really on the same side, and it's us against them.

The Crack

A renowned Russian scientist, who was called to the Deepwater Horizon site just days after the explosion, says oil is not just leaking from the well bore site, but from 18 different locations on the fractured seabed in the Gulf of Mexico.

The scientist, Anatoly Sagelevich said he and others, who inspected the site on the seabed in a deepwater submergence vehicle, were required by the US government and BP to sign a secrecy document. The document forbids them from saying anything about their findings to Americans or to the news media.

Senator Bill Nelson of Florida seemed to confirm the cracked seafloor claim in an interview with MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell. Nelson told Mitchell the government was looking into reports "that the well casing itself is actually piercing … underneath the seabed." He then confirmed to Mitchell oil was gushing up in several places in the seabed.

http://article.wn.com/view/2010/06/18/BP_tried_to_seal_well_cracks_weeks_before_leak/

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#62
In reply to #47

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:12 PM

Seems the linked article can't even spell Anatoly Sagalevitch's name correctly.

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#63
In reply to #62

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:22 PM

Prof. Anatoly Sagalevitch

Seems the linked article can't even spell Anatoly Sagalevitch's name correctly

The scientist, Anatoly Sagelevich said

ah ha so they got e t wrong well thats it then we wont belive them then

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#58

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:02 PM

The explosion that sank the Deep Water Horizon oil rig did more than allow oil to flow unfettered from a well, it also caused a crack in the Gulf seabed.

Hi,

this tiny explosion shall have cracked the seafloor 1500m deep down, shocking with considerable amplitude millions or more tons of water - never!

This at all was not an explosion in the scientific sense that the flame velocity exceeded the sound velocity but a deflagration a fast burning with considerable damage in the vicinity.

So if the seafloor is cracked - the video looks to support this, then this was done by the pressure from below. May be this cracks were existing for a long time and only now coming to our knowledge.

Usually any reservoir of oil or gas is contained from below by water and from above by a layer of humid clay - and thus plastically deforming if subject to strain from tension or bending but not deforming if compressed. This layer of clay is covered by layers of limestone or sandstone, shale and maybe loose sediments in the uppermost layer.

The reservoir is not like a big drop of oil but absorbed in small voids in the stony material of the reservoir.

So if there is one or some defects in the clay layer ail and gas will seep up, driven by pressure differential between the pressure inside the reservoir and the hydrostatic pressure of the aquifers deep down.

This way up is limited in flow rate by internal resistance of bleeding the reservoir - this seems to be very low in this well. And this internal resistance in series with the resistance of the tubing and the viscosity (very dependent on temperature) will define the flow rate. Look for Hagen-Poiseuille for a first estimate.

If at rising towards the surface the pressure drops and thus there will be some gas coming out of solution and further driving the flow by lowering the mean density.

Rising of fluids (any) in layered sediments (limestone, shale ...) with weak layers in-between will not take place vertically but along the lowest resistance.

Thus the rising oil may find a new reservoir to rest in for some more million years or may open big horizontally extended intrusions that may store the oil by bulging of above layers or may let pass the oil to the side or up with cracking.

This has happened naturally - the asphalt-lakes have formed by this action, evaporating the light fractions and leaving the asphalt forever.

If the natural sediments above this or other oil fields is this fragile so that there is a danger of naturally breaking the walls of the container then I think it better to drain the reservoir as fast as possible. Not so fast and uncontrolled as in this bad example but with a high priority to prevent damage.

This is only talking in principles and theory and the real situation may be much more complicated.

The seeping out of asphalt was mentioned in the Gilgamesh -Epos - one of the earliest known document of belief and history and was thought to be the door to hell.

The Babylonians used the stuff to glue the clay bricks into big and solid buildings - unfortunately weathered by any wet condition as the bricks not fired by lack of wood.

If the oil coming off the seafloor is only near the failed well then I would expect the non-intact cementing plus ? rupture of the tubing to be the origin.

If the seeping is widespread in the region then it is coming from deep down and there should be started soon a lot of new drillings to bring some pressure relief.

RHABE

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#64
In reply to #58

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:36 PM

would having an oil rig weighing several hundred tons hitting the sea bed froma fall of a mile have any effect do you think ???? not an explosion but a large impact i think ????

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#66
In reply to #64

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 8:04 PM

the rig didn't hit the wellhead, it was several hundred yards away. HOWEVER, the riser which was a heavy wall 21" diameter pipe bolted to the top of the LMRP which is in turn on top of the BOP, which is then in turn on top of the wellhead did buckle and it was a mile long, so it had a pretty good leverarm on the wellhead. THIS is the likely explanation of the bent wellhead. remember the wellhead is sunk in several tens of feet of mud before it reaches anything of real substance and the BOP/LMRP weigh several hundred tons all by themselves.

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#74
In reply to #66

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 9:17 PM

i didnt say it hit the well head

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#61

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 6:08 PM

Home | Seabed Technology Research Center

Seabed Technology Research Center (STRC)
STRC is a lead member of the Gulf of Mexico Hydrates Research Consortium, which is designing and installing a seafloor hydrates research observatory. The observatory is a multi-sensor station located at a gas hydrate site near Mississippi Canyon in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The facility includes geophysical, geochemical and microbial arrays and experiments and will employ techniques for hydrocarbon reservoir monitoring, such as constructing 3-D models of the reservoir's interior from seismic reflection data. Passive seismic monitoring of ambient noise will be done on a nearcontinuous basis and processed using correlation techniques to compare the data to the model. The method is expected to elucidate migration of subbottom fluids, fluid venting to the water column, and associated microbial and/or chemosynthetic community structures. An innovative new ROV was designed and developed for the observatory that can be used on ships of opportunity for other projects.

STRC Goals
STRC goals are to investigate seafloor resources and ecosystem dynamics through technological advances in surveying and observing systems. Activities are focused on (1) surveying seafloor features with advanced undersea vehicles and sensors and (2) design and installation of a seafloor observatory to study dynamics and impacts of gas hydrate deposits.

STRC Research
Current research activities focus on understanding formation and dissociation of gas hydrates, ice-like crystalline structures that encapsulate methane gas molecules. Hydrates are present world-wide in seafloor sediments, may impact seafloor stability and climate change through gas release, and have potential for development as a vast energy resource. To carry out this investigation, the Center is engaged in the science-driven design and deployment of a seafloor observatory in the Gulf of Mexico. Seafloor surveying efforts are focused on advances in high-resolution subbottom profiling technology, improved and quieter seismic profiling and miniaturized low-energy mass spectrometry for gas detection. These technologies are being designed or modified for use on AUVs, such as the NIUST's Eagle Ray.

STRC Contact Information

Interim Director: Carol Lutken
662-915-7320
The University of Mississippi
220 Old Chemistry
University,MS 38655

Project Coordinator: Ken Sleeper

ksleeper@olemiss.edu CLOAKING
662-915-7320


The University of Mississippi | http://niust.org | The University of Southern Mississippi

http://niust.org/index.php/Seabed-Technology-Research-Center-STRC/

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#73

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/22/2010 9:15 PM
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#82

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/26/2010 6:13 AM

this is slightly OT, but not exactly OT as it is related to the topic at hand.

"this is UNACCEPTABLE", says this woman repeatedly. Kindra Arnesan, a Venice LA local was granted security clearance to see all the horrors of the front lines and behind-the-scenes "works" of the BP GOM Catastrophe. see her interview here. "it's all ponies and balloons", she says.

maybe the brave in the land already ought to be making a stand by now.

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#83
In reply to #82

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/26/2010 6:55 AM

http://www.emaxhealth.com/1275/bp-oil-spill-dangerous-chilrens-lungs

Is crude oil dangerous? Oh yes. Most of the toxic chemicals man use come from crude.

http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=is+crude+oil+dangerous&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-gb:IE-SearchBox&ie=&oe=&rlz=1I7GZEU_en&redir_esc=&ei=TNslTOfRHpDu0wTf-MC7BA

Now and in the days ahead, it is critical to protect your children's health and your own from the effects of the BP oil spill in the Gulf. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that people avoid close contact with the oil spill and the fumes that arise from the burning oil, especially if you or your children have asthma or any other respiratory or lung condition.

You don't need to be among the oil spill cleanup crews to suffer health consequences from the Gulf oil spill. The CDC notes that people may be able to smell fumes from the oil spill from the shore, and that what people detect is from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that can include benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and naphthalene.

Although the CDC states that "the level of vapors in the air will be below the level that can hurt you," people may still experience headache, vomiting, or nausea. Exposure to even low levels of VOCs can cause irritation of the eyes, nose, throat, and skin. People who have asthma may be more susceptible to the effects of inhaled VOCs. The agency also recommends parents contact their pediatrician if their children develop any symptoms associated with contact with oil or oil fumes.

Spending time on the beach, swimming, and fishing are traditional summertime activities, but in areas affected by the oil spill, people are urged to avoid touching any of the oil or tarballs they may find. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains that tarballs are composed of crude oil that mixed with water to form an emulsion that can look like chocolate pudding. This emulsion is much thicker and stickier than the oil from which it was formed. As waves and winds break up this emulsion, it can form small pieces, called tarballs, that can be as small as coins or as large as pancakes.

Physical contact with tarballs can result in a rash or an allergic reaction to the chemicals in the oil, including hydrocarbons. Anyone who makes contact with tarballs should wash the affected area with soap and water, baby oil, or a safe cleaning compound like a cleaning paste available in auto supply stores. Solvents, kerosene, diesel fuel, or gasoline should never be used to remove the oil from a tarball.

People who are in the area of an oil spill should avoid outdoor physical activities, especially when it is possible to smell the oil and fumes. Close windows and doors at home and turn on your central air conditioner or use the recirculation mode to reuse indoor air.

Parents should monitor air quality reports in their area for any changes in wind direction and other weather changes. If oil is being burned, particulate matter from the burn may reach the shore. Particulate matter can get into the lungs and irritate throat and lung tissue.

The CDC does not believe drinking water and household water will be affected by the oil spill, although recreational water has already been impacted in some places. Everyone should heed any public health guidelines and warnings about the use of beaches and coastal waters for swimming, fishing, and boating.

Dispersants have been used to help break up the oil slick from the spill. For most people, brief contact with a small amount of dispersants should be harmless. However, longer physical contact can irritate the skin and cause rash and dryness, while the toxic chemicals can also irritate the eyes, throat, and lungs.

Parents who are concerned about exposure to oil or dispersants and its impact on their children's health and their own should contact their physician. The American Academy of Pediatrics has information on its website regarding children and environmental disasters, and the CDC has information on its web site for healthcare providers. At this point, the best defense against harm from the oil spill is avoidance, especially for children.

SOURCES:
American Academy of Pediatrics
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&newwindow=1&rls=com.microsoft:en-gb:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GZEU_en&q=compounds+crude+oil&revid=631651235&sa=X&ei=xtslTM_VCdO7jAe1nfB8&ved=0CFYQ1QIoBw

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#85
In reply to #82

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/26/2010 7:35 AM

comment from local about pollution in the gulf

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread587020/pg1

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#84

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/26/2010 7:10 AM
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#90

Re: Gulf Spill Likely To Get Worse

06/30/2010 6:13 AM
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