Coronal Mass Ejections . . . What If??

This is the first time I have ever heard of such an incident; details would be interesting.

There were some recent (Aug 1, 3, 4) large ejections, but I didn't see any reports of grid problems. How large these were compared to the one about a hundred years ago I don't know.

There apparently could be terawatts of power involved. Real concern or "Chicken Little"?

Some details......

A report issued by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in January says that if a coronal mass ejection from the Sun were to hit Earth's magnetic shield, countries with mass electrical grid systems would experience devastating results.

In the past, coronal mass ejections have affected satellites and communication devices on Earth. On March 10, 1989, a coronal mass ejection erupted from the Sun and reached the Earth's surface. The currents from this event entered some power grids and caused a power overload in Quebec, triggering a blackout for millions of Canadians that lasted for hours.

Being one of those millions affected I can attest to the disruptions. Loosing power for a few hours in March is not too bad, loosing it in January when it is likely to be 20 or more degrees below zero outside would be much worse. I assume a really huge one would fry much of an aging grid permanantly and take days or weeks to rebuild. Much like the Ice Storm in Eastern Canada.

Full article here http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/science/2009/march/Severe-Solar-Flares-Could-Cause-Catastrophic-Power-Outage-in-United-States.html

Thanks!

This was in the news recently: predictions for 2012-13 peak in the cycle. " A 2008 US National Academy of Sciences report estimated that modern reliance on electronics and satellite communications means a major storm could cause twenty times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina."

On the other hand, early warning would allow us to minimize the damage to some extent.

The new automated solar weather prediction system created by University of Bradford's Centre for Visual Computing (ASAP) can accurately predict a solar flare 6 hours in advance and they are working on accurate forecasting for CME's.

Seeing as how over 100 years ago there was not much of a grid, I question all presumptions of this "fact."

In 1910, the first transmission line was built to carry electricity to southwestern ontario. Hardly a "grid." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Hydro

To be fair, there were 55 "transmission systems" world wide by 1914: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission

I agree that we are wedded to our electrical means of production and communication. That these make it possible for us to sustain population densities far in excess of what we could support with out electricity.

Since you asked for the worst case scenario, how about this.

Everyone dies.

Except the amish, who get genetically poisoned by the toxins released by our failing nuclear and chemical plants. And inbred to the point of inviability based on loss of alternative genetic inputs fro outside their clan.

But that can't be a worst case scenario, since the "greens" would think that with all humanity gone, the earth goddess Gaia will heal and all will be right with the planet again.

In reality, I expect it will be somewhat worse than when the volcano in Iceland forced us to cancel our trip to Germany this April... and then having no internet or cell phone for a couple of days...

PS yes this is a Western society -centric view, but the aboriginal populations in Australia, Papua new Guinea, and elsewhere will also collapse due to the sudden withdrawal of Western society's "CARGO." Milo

Milo,

there was a grid existing at the 1858 solar flare - not a power grid but a grid of (Morse) telegraph lines.

Many of these molten, stations burned and more problems.

Have a look into the last years article in SciAm on this same topic. Some information there also on the much smaller events in the 1980ies.

Be prepared: seems to be impossible.

Types of damage:

A: high voltage by charging anything with ions or electrons, shielding seems to be extremely difficult as frequencies are broadband from near zero up to many GHz or higher.

B: magnetic induction may kill any lines and transformers by overcurrent.

C: magnetic field strength may demagnetise any data storage.

A. and C. proven in northern Canada in the 1980ies, B. in the US in 1858.

Enjoy your days!

RHABE

man oh man

some people should do more homework before they answer

the fact is..solar flares have disrupted our systems before

and the question is legit as hell

and yes, people that run the grid are concerned over this

the question wasn't about whether or not there was a grid over a hundred years ago, it was a question about the effects etc

I'm bettin solar flares become a terrorists best friend

Stub

Reading New Scientist magazine I am informed that the number of sunspots is lower now than for 100,s of years- also that the sun is shrinking & output diminishing- article is "what's wrong with our sun?".

Just read "Death from the Skies", a very informative and entertaining book by astronomer Philip Plait of badastronomy.com fame. He has a chapter on the Sun and CMEs. Highly recommend this book for anyone interested in what's out there.

As for preparing, we need to decentralize and harden the antiquated and fragile grid, with more and smaller power stations, solar panels down to the home level. Harden new satellites, and have backup plans for the ones that will get fried.

I'm not sure about it only taking days or weeks to repair, I know about some of the electric companies in the Pac NW (was a Board member for one several years ago) and they don't stock very many replacement transformers due to the expense. Without electricity to make more, it might take a really long time to get power back to everyone. Sounds like a potentially huge disaster to me.

The big transformers will likely be the biggest problem.

These are nowhere existing as spare-parts and typically need more than 1 year from order to delivery.

Here in Germany one of the nuclear power plants burnt one of the big transformers (2 times!).

The first was burnt in June 2007 and the replacement ready and into operation in June 2009.

Only 2 weeks later another one of the main transformers was gone in smoke and flames.

I don't know if this second burn was occurring in the surviving old one or in the newly installed one.

No time schedule known when the second replacementwill be operative.

RHABE

thank you for your replies i have been following the sun and sunspots for a few years now. over a year ago the scientific community were literally on the edge of their seats, wondering if we would ever see a sunspot again. talk of a maunder minimum (mini ice age) was batted about etc. etc. one thing that held the community en rapped was the fact that the sun was still sending out huge arcs of magnetized plasma gas in the billions of tons, generally away from our planet. ( you are welcome to correct my ignorance) it turns out that our earth is now at its magnetic lowest and ready to flip poles, which also means that we are vulnerable to a blast from the sun if it should send an arc in our direction. hence my curiosity about what the engineering community had to say about this. i must admit i am a little surprised at how little we are prepared. what will this phenomenon affect? will it erase memory from all the computers in its wake? nano technology etc.? i figured because you guys are geniuses that this would be the subject de jour whereby dialog would create preparatory measures but i guess not. love you all. keeping my mind open.

With politicians running the world (instead of statesmen, scientists, engineers and other smart folks), nothing will happen until disaster strikes. Then comes the investigation, the finger-pointing and scapegoating, the bombast and rhetoric, then we go back to sleep. Our systems are reactive, not proactive. I don't know how to fix it. Cynical? Sure. True? Absolutely.

There will not exist fingerpointing,

no TV, no radio-broadcasting (this may survive for longest, so if you want to be prepared then get an all-wavelength sensitive receiver with enough spare rechargeable batteries and a photovoltaic recharger).

In a partial breakdown there will be a lot of chaos then a long lasting emergency situation then a deeper chaos and then may be a slow recovery.

No food no heat cannot be survived for long. Except among the last nomads that know how to live without much "civilised" imports.

So anything is possible depending on the severity and orientation of the expected solar storm. The energy of the fast particles is reaching to above GeV so the path- deviation by the earths magnetic field is no longer significant.

We can do a little bit but against a severe solar storm our capabilities are nothing.

RHABE

Hi,

magnetic recording tape was erased or changed to nonuseful in the 1989 Canadian events.

(Polar lights were visible down to Florida!)

So if a big event of this solar storm will come then I do not believe that our technical community will survive.

No production, no transportation, no fuel nor electricity, no supermarket open, all satellites blinded, most power-lines molten, most power-transformers burnt...

How to start again?

Estimates are at 500 years intervals typical for this big solar storms.

So search for a place at the Bahamas or other places that are warm and where you can survive by fish and manioc?

(Similar non survivable events are much rarer: neutron star mergers or the like).

RHABE

Hello,

A few months ago, I had the chance to watch a documentary in Discovery regarding the aftermath of a massive coronal ejection from the sun striking the earth. The strong ejections penetrated the earth's protective EM field and knocked off power grids in many parts of the world, plunging cities like New york and Paris into complete blackout. The restoration of power, according to the documentary could take months or even years depending upon the severity.

I must say that it was frightening to learn that we are utterly and literally 'powerless' against such forces... The consequences does not end there... no electricity means no food storage and minimal protection against weather conditions and still more...the scenario is just unimaginable..

I found the video on youtube... here is the link to the first part.

This thread started in 2010, with regard to today's CMEs, does anyone have any new info to add? I'd be interested in seeing what the new speculation is for worst case scenario. If transformers blow, do power suppliers have back ups? Has the federal government assisted in any way buy helping to buy reserve transformers? Or are we just sitting ducks?

Ronando, it looks as if nobody is watching this thread anymore.

If I Search all of CR4 (right side margin of screen) for "CME", I get this result.

Maybe find a newer discussion and rephrase your question. This is a topic that several members have an opinion about and like to discuss... they just haven't seen your comment here.

Welcome to our little chat room, I hope to see you around.

Doorman

Thanks Doorman. I'll do as suggested. For some weird reason, when I bumped the thread, it appeared on some buried page, like 17 pages deep instead of at the top of the list as I expected.

Fair enough Ronando.

It appears I may have spoken to you just a little early. As you see, CR4 member Milo has chimed in with an opinion (which reflects my opinion exactly). Milo is a well respected member here at CR4: his comments are well considered and well worded, they are spot on correct (usually, anyway ), he shares his knowledge and experiences freely, and he is just an all around nice fellow.

If you cannot find a recent thread regarding CME as you wish to discuss them, please do not hesitate to start a new discussion. It is free, and we are mostly all around nice fellows.

I'll chime in.

If transformers blow, do power suppliers have back ups?

NPE.

Has the federal government assisted in any way buy helping to buy reserve transformers?

NPE.

Or are we just sitting ducks?

Yep!

Milo

Thank you both, Milo & Doorman. If this is the case, that there are no back up transformers and we're sitting ducks (in light of recent increased activity), then....

a) What is the likelihood of a catastrophic failure like this happening? Higher or lower than the Japanese tsunami/nuclear incident?

b) If the likelihood is anything but minimal, wouldn't it be good to prepare for such an event?

c) What is the best way to prepare? It sounds like it would include a large amount of funds going towards purchasing of redundant along with back up systems as well as spare items, such as massive transformers, in storage or at least having them live, but off line.

d) Is this something that can be pushed through legislature; the increased awareness of the fragility of our communications network?

And, should I be asking these questions here or on one of the other threads? Thanks for your time.

- Ronando

Your questions about infrastructure may be as little too focused.

Electricity must be generated before it can be transmitted, transformed, stored...

After it is generated, transmitted, and transformed, it must be utilized: electronic fuel dispensers (gas pumps) may have been damaged, the ATM you use has probably been smoked, your banking information itself (or the ability to retreive it) will probably have been compromised... Many people around the world live in very tall apartment buildings, and elevators in those buildings use electronic controls, the building management systems in those buildings that control the heat, vent and air-conditioning will be compromised; boats, airplanes, trains... all controlled and undoubtedly negatively impacted by a series of massive CME. And the internet! It will be gone too! How do we create an alternate internet? Wifi, cellular phones, DirecTV, satellite radio... ARRGHHHH! All gone!

So, your question about sitting ducks... as Milo said, Yes, we are. What is to be done? That, my friend, is a good and deeply thoughtful discussion. The list of things that will not be affected is shorter than the list we are creating here.

I think this thread is a pile of Chicken Little nonsense, utterly devoid of meaningful calculations or estimates. For starters, one might calculate the solid angle subtended by the earth as viewed from the sun. Homework, anyone?

Tornado - I think there are, at least, two to three issues here. Correct me if I'm wrong, but one is the probability of a catastrophic event happening. Another would be the severity of such an event happening.

Though I'm concerned with both probability and severity, I'm also interested in repercussions, preparedness and response. Assuming that a large CME is possible, and even slightly probably, the effects on our electronic infrastructure is such that it seems prudent to me to come up with a list of susceptible "fault lines" within the infrastructure. A list of prepared contingencies would be nice to see as well. So, yes, I agree, homework is needed, all around.

However, discussing this without a ton of calculus isn't a cart-before-the-horse issue, simply because we don't have any "meaningful calculations or estimates." I'm assuming, given the name of this site and forum, that most of the people here, aside from myself, are able to bring more than rudimentary guesswork to the table when talking about this.

If someone has "the solid angle subtended by the earth as viewed from the sun," to either support concern or even shoot it down, it would be nice to see. Personally, I think the Japanese might have thought it was "Chicken Little nonsense" as well if someone were to have brought up the concern of a tsunami induced, multiple nuclear power plant catastrophic failure event, yet it still happened. ... and many people are suffering.

As Batman says, "I have contingencies on my contingencies."

:)

Have you put up a concrete meteorite shield over your house yet? If not, why not?