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A World Without Oil

12/09/2011 9:26 PM

As we're constantly bombarded with the evils of oil and the people that pump it out of the ground, refine and distribute it, while I've been commuting to work this week I've been thinking about what things would be like if oil had never been discovered at all, or had never existed.

The list of accomplishments that never would have been achieved and the things we wouldn't have, seems endless. But what would life be like?

Would the planetary ecosystem be in perfect balance?

Would people all get along?

How would things be better?

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#149
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Re: A World Without Oil

12/14/2011 10:30 AM

That is great..Thanks.

I wonder how long our "cheap Energy Folly" petrochemical wise is going to last??? 10 years maybe??

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#138
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Re: A World Without Oil

12/13/2011 11:48 PM

Moonshine mobility. Excellent.

You do see this sort of thing on the roads here on a reasonably frequent basis.

Fuel sometimes used is a cocktail of diesel, cooking oil, engine oil, fish oil and water. Only mildly emancipated from fossil fuel slavery.

Bring it on!

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#191

Re: A World Without Oil

12/19/2011 11:21 PM

A world without oil would be so different.

If oil never existed then Noah's Ark may have sunk and key ancient battles may well have turned out differently.

This forum thread would not have started and our technological landscape would be very different.

Every aspect of history that involved oil in any way would be obliterated.

Really different.

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#192
In reply to #191

Re: A World Without Oil

12/19/2011 11:56 PM

Interesting 'social study'

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#194
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Re: A World Without Oil

12/20/2011 6:58 AM

Great link!!!

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#200

Re: A World Without Oil

12/20/2011 2:43 PM

Kramarat asked:

"The list of accomplishments that never would have been achieved and the things we wouldn't have, seems endless. But what would life be like?

Would the planetary ecosystem be in perfect balance?

Would people all get along?

How would things be better?"

Despite the lenghty dialogue I did not see any attempt at answering his question.

In all likelihood the answer to all of them would be NO. We are finding evidence that from the earliest time mankind has done things to unbalance nature by over hunting , over grazing , clear cutting forest to make farm land or denude the cedar forest of Lebanon for things like temple building and ship building. What historical records we have show a constant progression of warfare. Archiologists have unearthed armies of clay figurines buried with Chinese emperors. Egyptian burial chambers depict armies and war chariots and in more recent times we have written records of mongol armies sweeping right up to European lands. So what part of this would suggest people got along better in pre oil days. So what would be better? Ask the noblity or the merchant class and they would say they always had it good. Good food to eat, fine clothes to wear and perhaps entertainment to persue; be it hunting or sports or . . . whatever. In that sense oil or the lack therof hardly made a dent in the historical record.

Rome expanded her borders of empire to pillage the natural resources of its neighbors. the gold mines of Spain, the lead and tin mines of Wales, Cornwall, and England, the corn fields of North Africa, and so on.

Now that oil is king, those countries with might are busy invading those countries who lack a strong standing army. Japan invading Malaysia in WW2, Russia invading Afganistan, The USA in the middle east. And where raw military might is deemed politically embarassing there is behind the scenes 'business' negotiations to take the natural resources of those who own it by those with the most influence or power.

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#203
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Re: A World Without Oil

12/20/2011 4:12 PM

You may as well speculate on what would the World be like if Zheng He had a successor

Back then, the 'resource' was pepper (or so they opine)

What is noticeable in history, is expansion is always about the 'resource of the day'. And when it's gained in volume, that 'world power' succumbs to gluttony and sloth, so fades, or falls, frequently by it's own addiction to excess.

In that context, "free oil" out of the ground is analogous to enslaving a population as "free labor".

It's all wonderful, until the real price arrives.

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#211
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Re: A World Without Oil

12/27/2011 12:32 PM

GA

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#205

Re: A World Without Oil

12/21/2011 10:20 AM

A lot of the discussion about climate change avoids the real question: What should we do? Should we buy an electric car or a motor scooter, ban incandescent lightbulbs, plant our grass on the roof and plant potatoes between the house and the street, ban disposable diapers, support building railroads, add ethanol from corn to motor fuels, pay "reparations" to pre-industrial countries, build nuclear power plants, remove nuclear power plants, build wind turbine bird mincers, open more rare earth mines, build dikes to protect coastal areas from a rising sea levels, buy Coca Cola in special cans with polar bears on them, cut down tropical forests to grow biofuels, etc.? Such behaviors have been advocated, to save the world, but seldom is there a risk-benefit analysis.

We should not consult politicians. Al Gore, for example, is not a scientist, engineer, or economist. I have read that he took one science course in college and got a C. He has, however, become rich from his efforts to reverse climate change. Apparently he thinks the present climate is the best possible one. Some think a warmer climate would be nicer. Very few advocate a return to the "little ice age" of pre-industrial times, two hundred years ago. Before we decide what to do, perhaps we should consider what we want to accomplish.

All the relevant politicians say they believe in God, a God who is omnipotent and benevolent. If that is true of God, then the omnipotent God is giving us the climate He creates, and it is for our own good, since he is benevolent. Hence we should do nothing to prevent climate change, and anything we might do would be futile, anyway, since omnipotence trumps engineering. If the godly politicians tell us we must do something about climate change, they are either delusional or lying or both.

If you are ungodly and prefer to consider God as irrelevant, then you should invoke science in search of the answer to what to do. How do we decide what climate we would prefer to have? Reduce the ice in the Northwest Passage for better shipping or keep it frozen all year long so we can build a railroad across the ice? Ban snow south of Scotland and keep rain restricted to a few hours after midnight? Reduce the ultraviolet radiation reaching the beaches, to encourage nude bathing? Drop sea levels to increase agricultural land and enable a London to New York rail link, via the former Bering Strait? Move the intertropical convergence zone so it rains in the Sahara? It gets ridiculous pretty quickly, but how can one determine what to do if the goal is not known? Perhaps it would be prudent to "first, do no harm." Does that mean do nothing?

We engineers are used to taking orders from management, even if the managers might be morons from our point of view. Let's assume that Management, whoever that may be, has decided it is a corporate/national/international goal to reduce global warming. Well, what causes global warming?

We can draw a dotted line (imaginary, of course) around the Earth and proclaim it an isolated thermodynamic system. There is an energy input and an energy output. If they are equal, the temperature remains the same. If input exceeds output there is global warming. If output exceeds input there is cooling. Except, perhaps, for cosmic rays and meteors, the input energy is entirely sunlight, mostly in the visible portion of the spectrum. The only way energy (neglect tidal forces) escapes the globe is by radiation into space, mostly in the infrared (IR) portion of the spectrum (Wein's Law). The input depends on the solar "constant" (we probably can't influence the sun's output) and the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, which decreases the absorption of sunlight. About 30% of the incoming solar radiation is reflected or scattered back to space, which is why a Martian would see the Earth as a bright object in the sky. The rest of the input is absorbed by the atmosphere (19%) or the land and water (51%).

The output depends on the temperature and emissivity of the "surface" of the Earth (Stefan Boltzman Law). I put surface in quotes, because the effective surface is somewhere in the atmosphere, approximately at the tops of clouds in overcast areas, just as, for a human, his effective surface, thermally, is the surface of his clothing, not the surface of his skin. The earth is clothed in atmosphere. The effective surface area for IR emission is four times the effective surface for absorption of sunlight, because emission is in all directions (ie. perpendicular to the surface, not at some grazing angle) and both day and night. We know the average temperature of the "atmospheric surface" is about 255K, well below freezing, as inferred from the output of about 240 watts m-2. The actual (solid and liquid) surface temperature is about 288K. A concise description of the physics is found at http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter2/rad_objects.html.

So, if we want to change the radiative equilibrium in favor of cooling, there are only a few things to do. We might increase the reflection of short wave (visible) incoming radiation. increasing clouds and/or snow cover is an obvious way to do that. Introducing mirrors (reflective in the visible but transparent to IR) into the air or covering the ground with them would be the "science fiction" solution, not likely to be practical. Perhaps we could increase the output energy radiated to space. We could increase the temperature and emission of the atmospheric "surface". The temperature of the air lowers with altitude in the troposphere (adiabatic lapse rate), so increasing the temperature implies lowering the "surface." How could we do that? How about more soot and pollutant aerosols, more "greenhouse" gasses? (Think "nuclear winter". It seems somehow anti-politically correct, doesn't it?) H2O is by far the most important greenhouse gas. There have been proposals to have ships with giant fountains on them. I won't attempt to get quantitative, since the radiative transfer mathematics, level to level in the atmosphere, are not simple. Suffice it to say that simply reducing man-made CO2 emissions is likely to be a fart in a windstorm. As I noted in an earlier posting, an actual experiment, decreasing anthropogenic CO2 by about 30%, was followed by <<increased>> warming of the land surface.

IMHO the question of what to do is not yet answered.

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#209

Re: A World Without Oil

12/27/2011 11:13 AM

Rereading this thread, I notice different views.

* We'd be happier without oil, living like Vikings, Amish, or Buddist monks.

* We could get along, perhaps without minor conveniences like chain saws and jet airliners. Technology would have evolved along different lines.

* Good engineers would have developed all modern conveniences, including moon rockets, by finding alternative solutions to problems which we solve today with petroleum.

For those with faith in finding substitutes, I would like to propose a challenge.

What would the world be like if all solids were opaque; there were no transparent solids?

What sort of device would you build for people who are nearsighted? (some sort of reflective optics? Pinhole lenses?) What would buildings look like with no windows or light bulbs? (We would live underground?) Could you build a reasonably fast automobile without clear glass or plastic? (Acetyline headlights?) How about a pressurized airliner? (Zeppelins won't do) What would astronomers be doing? Would TV exist?

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#210
In reply to #209

Re: A World Without Oil

12/27/2011 12:23 PM

Presumably your proposal that transparent solids did not exist is not because we've yet to find them but because they cannot exist. This is a dramatic proposal in an alteration in the laws of Physics on transparency. Remember, with the exception of collapsed matter, all solids are predominantly filled with empty space. A photon is "stopped" by an opaque object only because the orbitals of the electrons around a nucleus can be excited to precisely the same energy quanta jump of that photon. Whatever your new mechanism is that stops light, I personally doubt that you can limit this to solid objects because the difference between a solid and a liquid is not the average spacing of nuclei. So I would expect that one would also then have to have all liquids as opaque material. Now there would certainly be a point in a gas where the mean free path of a gas will permit light to travel unabated but there will also be a level where even a gas will be opaque. So I'll stop here and discuss the consequences of all solids and liquids having to be opaque.

With all liquids being opaque, eyes that can focus an image would not exist unless that image focusing came solely from reflective surfaces. It may also be impossible to obtain information of a reflection focused image because only the first layer of atoms of any liquid or solid would receive the energy. Thus I say that imaging eyes would likely never exist. We would never have developed any heuristic understanding of light. Our scientists may eventually discover the existence and importance of light. But our politicians and businessmen would instantly discredit any value in knowing about light and even the existence of light because they can neither make an immediate profit from it or any form of a useful weapon.

I also wonder if life itself could exist if light could not reach into water and the surface of the Earth. What would now be the kinematics of energy formed in or near the core of the sun for it to reach our planet?

You forget that there's a lot more to light than just the visible spectrum. If you altered the rules so that the visible spectrum resided at a different set of frequencies so that crown glass was as opaque as cardboard, we likely would have just eventually discovered a different material that did allow for our vision to see though.

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#212
In reply to #210

Re: A World Without Oil

12/27/2011 12:46 PM

"I also wonder if life itself could exist if light could not reach into water and the surface of the Earth. What would now be the kinematics of energy formed in or near the core of the sun for it to reach our planet?"

Actually, there are life forms/biological cycles that rely on other than light energy- best known, of course, are the life forms found around thermal vents in the deep ocean. Apparently, there are other forms deep below of the surface of terra firma, as well, that utilize other chemistries...

Now, having said that, I wonder if such wonderful things as mathematics, literature and religion would be possible if our only means of sensing the world were chemical signals?

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#213
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Re: A World Without Oil

12/27/2011 2:28 PM

Yes. If, for example, we saw in the UV, which would not be so far fetched if the sun were hotter, it would be hard to find transparent materials. Perhaps the the problem could be restated. As in Roman times, clear glass and plastic are difficult to make and are very expensive, and diamonds are scarce and expensive, also difficult to make into light bulbs.

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#214
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Re: A World Without Oil

12/27/2011 6:41 PM

You/us/Man, probably wouldn't be around if "all solids" included ice.

Some time last century, I read a novel called "The Death of Metal" (or similar, or not perhaps, because I can't find it on the Nets), where metals started to become 'fluid', losing all structural properties. That makes a good 'work around' conundrum.

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