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Mechanical Power Transmission

The Mechanical Power Transmission Blog is the place for conversation and discussion about Gears & Gearbox Assemblies; Belts, Pulleys, Chains & Sprockets; Brakes, Clutches & Couplings; Design & Analysis. Here, you'll find everything from application ideas, to news and industry trends, to hot topics and cutting edge innovations.

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5 comments

Is Business Picking Up Yet?

Posted December 25, 2009 8:55 AM

Several recent industry articles intimate the bottom has been reached for the power transmission equipment market and an upward trend is slowly, very slowly beginning. While this may be true overall, what is the current market trend you are experiencing specifically in your organization? It's a new year and time for predictions. What's your outlook on the power transmission market?

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Associate

Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 38
#1

Re: Is Business Picking Up Yet?

12/26/2009 3:19 PM

All indicators appear to be that way. (At least where I am. NY CITY area.) Not trying to make a political statement, but if the stimulus package action were not taken, makes we wonder where we'd be today. If you'd look at the unemployment (curve) numbers from the government, from mid 2007 and on, we'd be well above 11.2 percent today.

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Power-User

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#3
In reply to #1

Re: Is Business Picking Up Yet?

12/27/2009 4:01 PM

I agree, I saw the bottom drop out so fast in Sep-Oct 2008, and it didn't even begin to come back yet, just inquiries, hopefully start to get some orders in 2010 as this is not good.

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Power-User

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#2

Re: Is Business Picking Up Yet?

12/26/2009 4:38 PM

NOT IN YOUR INDUSTRY DIRECTLY BUT WE DO MECHANICAL SERVICE AND CONTROLS. MY BUSINESS IS ACTUALLY BETTER IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL REASONS. THE TREND WE SEE IS THAT NO ONE IS CARRYING INVENTORY. DISTRIBUTORS ARE PARTS ORDERERS AND MOST ARE NOT GOOD AT THAT.ALSO SEEING A LOT OF SWAG PARTS AVAILABLE WITH MADE IN 3RD WORLD STAMPED ON THEM. MY TAKE IS THE FOLLOWING.

1. THE COMPETITION IS SLOPPY IN WORK PERFORMANCE AND BUSINESS. I HAVE BEEN OPERATING ON REFERRALS WITH NO ADVERTISING WHATSOEVER SINCE AUGUST 1994. QUALITY AND RELIABILITY WINS IN THE END. WE SERVICE 24/7 AND CHARGE FOR THE SERVICE BUT WE TRAIN CONSTANTLY TO BECOME BETTER AND WHOM CAN YOU CALL WHEN YOUR EQUIPMENT IS DOWN AND PRODUCTION IS STOPPED. WE CAN USUALLY GET YOU BACK ON LINE AND IF NECESSARY SCHEDULE PERMANENT REPAIRS FOR LATER.

2. EVERYBODY WANTS TO BECOME RICH AND RICHER RIGHT NOW. BUY OVERSEAS, PRICE RULES ETC. WE DON'T PLAY THE SHORT MONEY. WE DON'T UP-PRICE BECAUSE WE HAVE YOU OVER A BARREL. WE DON'T DO A PARTIAL JOB BECAUSE YOU FEEL IT'S GOOD ENOUGH. WE WANT TO DO IT CORRECTLY, NO MORE, NO LESS AND RECIEVE FAIR COMPENSATION.

3. ALL THE BIG GUYS DESTROYED THE 'MADE IN USA' BRAND, CHRYSLER GM AND ALMOST EVERYONE ELSE. YOU HAVE A PACK OF WEASELS THAT ARE 'MANUFACTURERS REPS' MOST OF WHOM REPRESENT THE MANUFACTURERS INTO OBLIVION. I CALLED TO MANUFACTURERS REPS IN PA AND NJ FOR PRICE AND AVAILABILTY ON 1.5K WORTH OF PARTS AND OVER A MONTH LATER I HAVE NOT HEARD FROM EITHER. I BOUGHT THEM FROM A KING LADY NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA WHO WALKED TO THE WAREHOUSE TO MAKE SURE SHE HAD THEM FIRST AND OVERNIGHTED THEM. A FEW MONTHS AGO A NJ REP QUOTED ME 1600 EACH FOR 10 PIECES AND 10 WEEKS LEAD. GOT THE SAME PIECES FROM THE SAME FACTORY IN THREE WEEKS FOR 538 EACH FROM ANOTHER REP IN ANOTHER STATE. POINT BEING WE HAVE TO PROVIDE SERVICE AND PRODUCTS WHEN AND WHERE NEEDED. THE NEW AMERICAN ATTITUDE IS INDESCRIBABLE IN POLITE TERMS.

WE CANNOT COMPETE WITH 3RD WORLD LABOR RATES, FACT. WE CAN COMPETE ON QUALITY AND INOVATION. AUTOMATION CAN PRODUCE MEANINGFUL JOBS AND QUALITY PRODUCTS BUT WE NEED A WORKFORCE THAT CARES ABOUT QUALITY AND THE COMPANYS REPUTATION AND PROFITABILITY. YOU NEED REPS THAT WILL SERVICE THE BUYERS AT A PROFIT AND NOT TRY TO RETIRE TO THE BAHAMAS ON EVERY SALE. THIS IS GOING TO DEMAND THAT BUSINESS OWNERS LEAD, BY FORCE WHEN NECESSARY BUT DEMAND QUALITY IN EVERY ASPECT. I THINK AN EMPLOYMENT APPLICATION SHOULD HAVE A QUESTION SIMILAR TO," ABC COMPANY SELLS A PART FOR $100 MAKE A LIST OF EVERYTHING THE COMPANY MUST PAY FROM THAT MONEY BEFORE A FROFIT IS REALIZED? IF THEY CAN'T NAME 25 MAYBE YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME.

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#5
In reply to #2

Re: Is Business Picking Up Yet?

12/28/2009 6:25 AM

WELL SAID, I could not agree more! Seems like everyone who does not make anything wants to make a killing and get cut rate prices from the people who do all the work, and want it now! their the ones the take the longest to pay.

I have a small shop in PA. If you need custom made parts

Look me up

J Cip

CIPCO

sorry for the plug

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#4

Re: Is Business Picking Up Yet?

12/28/2009 12:28 AM

I Like That Applications Profit Question !

It's Not Picking Up Over Here. Let face it - it is spotty out here. Some folks are ok, some are bad off, some are very bad off. Only Bankers, Politicians & Government Agencies seem to have a steady business & the ability to capture our assets on a regular basis at will ( they are the 3 main Organized Crime families of our modern World ; seems a real shame, that the RICO statutes , don't apply to them too ). Can anyone imagine what it would be like for those of us, if we went to another person in our neighborhood , gave them a bill and said "if you don't pay me several thousand dollars a year, just to live on that property , I'm taking your house away & selling it to someone who will pay me ? That's an Organized Crime called Property Tax. It's that time of year again - makes me ask: Whatever happened to Allodial Title instead of Fee Simple ?

We are in the Self Sustainable Building & Renewable Energy Equipment Business in Georgia & the Up ticks that I have seen , are mostly Stimulus Money Driven Only. Being mostly public utilities & local Govt. spending Govt. money, on their stupid but very well planed out for years pet projects & Smart grid new meters & temporary employees to install them . These new meters will make it where they can shut off your power , without coming out & eliminate the need for any meter readers, to be in the field. Ah automation !

Nothing in the private sector has had legs in 07, 08 or 09 like before . Banks are buying overseas bonds, at about 4+% interest with their stimulus money & not loaning it domestically still & the consumer is grossing less than it takes to survive.

Another year of 4 million foreclosures again in 2009 ( that's 3 years in a row now ) and the commercial loans set to refi in 2010 , are at larger numbers than the last 3 years of residential foreclosures combined. Where will they find refis ? I don't think they will & we will see as a result, more layoffs & business closings than the currently disclosed unemployment numbers. They will rise still more (maybe to 30% if you count everyone).

Our business was in its start derived from the upper middle class of Americans but they stopped spending in early 08 & what's left, is those in need today, whom can't afford to buy, what they need.

Yep it's a order it & drop ship world , from the manufacturers inventory and I think that will stay the same. Overseas suppliers are the main source of Renewable Energy Equipment & there is no reason that will change , as the US Govt. & its agencies made sure, no one would want to make anything here, long ago.

Lastly the Govt. in charge can't fix this economic problem, for some simple reasons. I think the main one is : They don't think - like business people do - they think that Government is the only answer. As long as we keep any single person, in Government now ( or those formally there & now cast out either ) we will never get any one in there, who can manage their way out of a "paper" economic down turn.

Joe Woodall, Managing Partner

Georgia Adobe

http://www.georgiaadobe.com

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