Smartphones Predicted to Be PC Killer…

Be it true or not, since I own a Blackberry, I use my computers much less!

Being both an engineer and recording musician, (on top of that a hobby digital photographer and somewhat gamer), I cannot see how the desktop can become irrelevant. It might to the masses, but there will be a market no matter what. Albeit that the desktop PC price will rise in such cases (excuse the pun).

There will be fewer desktops but someone's got to design and program the portables. There will be more handhelds since most people have little use for a desktop. When efficient human-scale input/output mechanisms are developed for pocket-sized computers, physical keyboards will gradually disappear from the desktop. (Surprisingly, iPhones sales are still accelerating.)

I think that within five years, we'll have projectors and gesture recognition for our phones.

Ironic that this thread should appear that same day that Labbyguy is inquiring about how to hook up more than 2 screens to his computer. Can a smartphone run multiple screens?

Personally as an avid gamer currently exploring all the glories of Middle Earth on a 27" screen in Turbine's gem Lord of the Rings Online I don't see how a phone is going to replace my PC. I'm looking into going with a beautiful 3 screen system I saw that produces a sort of wrap-a-round effect for gaming. I also cant see a phone doing that, but then again I didn't foresee a phone doing most of the things phones do now so don't take my word for it.

LOTRO forever.

One will never get the full benefit of that beautiful scenery on a phone, smart or otherwise.

Not to mention, I don't see (pun intended) myself giving up my 2 21" monitors that I do full scale solids modeling aircraft design on for a, what?, 3" screen?

YGTBKM

Hooker

Stop being so inside-the-box. NVidia has 3D-capable goggles for a $few hundred. They get pretty good reviews, but they don't track your head movements, yet. MIMS IMUs are showing up in all kinds of cheap devices. Bluetooth doesn't support the bandwidth - yet - to do 3D video, but wait for it.

There are interesting possibilities in combining motion tracked augmented-reality goggles (transparent displays) with projection and gesture recognition. Minority Report, Avatar and every other future-looking movie is limited by the paradigm of their times.

Desktops will be the first to implement the typical gee-whiz advance, but handhelds are just a couple years behind. I bet MIT or DARPA (or some foreign group) is working on something like I envision right now.

I've been waiting for the box for almost 30 years.

In 1982 I sat through a no longer around computer company presentation that told me that I would soon be doing my design work while sitting in a comfortable reclining over stuffed lounger while zooming around n my full color with multi-phasic stereo audio sound hologram with the ability to work on physical realistic materials zoomed in to the micron level.

So....

Where is it?

Hooker

It's all coming Real Soon Now. :)

We could present that kind of system to you now, but it's just not cost-effective. I sometimes wonder if I belong at Apple, because they've got to be looking at all the possibilities in order to come up with the refined mixes of advances that they do.

If wireless augmented-reality goggles with gesture recognition is feasible and can be done elegantly, someone will do it.

I'm probably wrong in predicting where user interface is going, but processing speed will always be there, or it'll be there next generation.

I agree (hope) all this stuff is coming. But in three years?

Which generation? Mine? Or computer?

Seriously, I worked in the CAD industry for almost 20 years and know the drill. Holographic technology is nowhere near that state of allowing a productive Cad/Cam system. Not in feasibility, computer power or cost.

Tiny 2D screen phones, even with 3D technology aren't even a bridge to the level of technology I described above. Wireless goggles may cut it, but it will have to be very immersive with a UI technology that doesn't exist yet.

Hooker <--- whose generational time is running out

yeah, maybe in 100 years someone will dust off their grandpa's Atari ST and say

..... whoa

Too many people spend countless hours looking at a computer monitor.

I very serously doubt an engineer can use their ipod for running Solidworks or AutoCAD.

The amount of time people spend infront of the computer would be even worse when looking at that tiny screen.

As for computer gaming. The gaming programs require way too much of the computer resources for an ipod to handle. They would be too slow due to latency issues to be able to play effectively. As long as there is computer gaming there will be the need for desk tops. Xbox, Playstation and Wii, do not have the same gaming interaction as a PC version of the games, they are limited compared to a PC game.

So no, the desktop PC is not going away anytime soon.

Wow, I just wiki'd it and AutoCAD (at least the DWG format) has been around since 1982! At the school I was attending at the time, we were delighted to get rid of our 300 baud teletype terminals and replace them with 1200 (or even 2400!) baud CRTs. The thought of running even a Sudoku app in a pocket-sized computer didn't occur to anyone that I can even conceive of, back then.

The processing speed in a small form factor is strictly a matter of time. It's the user interface that's reached its physical limits, and where the true innovation needs to happen. The iPod/smartphone is a small number of generations away from being able to drive stereoscopic graphics. The display device is the real unknown. Keyboards aint' getting any smaller, so people are playing with projected keyboards or other crafty ideas to get data from the brain to the computer.

I don't know about you, but I'm not about to sit in a chair in front of a glass-faced box to play a game (or design something), if I have the option of donning light-weight stereoscopic glasses and having the box watch what I do from a comfortable distance, or read my mind in order to discern my moves. There's a reason Nintendo's laughingly under-powered Wii, for which they lost a lot of respect from serious gamers, has 'em laughing all the way to the bank. They came up with a great interface.

All that being said, there'll still be desktops. But the only reason my desktop is as big as it is is because size doesn't matter - I've got a desk to put it on. If your desktop is 2+ years old, it might as well be a smartphone with a monitor, keyboard and large drive attached.

With all that great technology comes a price.

The price on those special gadgets that project a keyboard or symbols like I've seen in movies will have to come down tremendously before anyone in the homes can afford it.

Poeple are going to stick with the inexpensive desktops because there is still a market for them.