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Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

Posted June 30, 2026 12:00 AM
Pathfinder Tags: challenge question

Your friend makes a $250 bet with you.

He will pick a number between 1 and 1,000. If you can guess this number in 10 or less questions or guesses, you win.

Expressed as a percent, what are your odds of winning the $250?

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#1

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

06/30/2026 7:37 AM

You have to calculate the odds of not guessing it and subtract from 1.

Odds of not guessing =

999/1000 x 998/999 x 997/998 x 996/997 ... = 0.99

The odds of guessing is 1 percent

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#2

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

06/30/2026 11:00 PM

Since 2 to the 10 is 1024. Ten questions, each one asking above or below a halfway point, narrows it to one number.

So the odds are pretty good if he's smart. My first question would be if the number in question was equal to or above 512.

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Guru

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#4
In reply to #2

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

07/01/2026 6:47 AM

You're right, so the odds are 100% with a binary search. You're lucky to have a friend like that!

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#5
In reply to #2

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

07/02/2026 10:07 AM

Although the binary search narrows it down in 10 questions to one number and you know the answer, you have not actually asked your friend whether it was that number so I think you have to stop the binary search after 9 questions and then guess the remaining choice out of the 2 numbers so I think it is 50%

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#6
In reply to #5

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

07/03/2026 4:46 PM

Let your guess of the unknown number N=512*A+256*B+128*C+64*D+32*E+16*F+8*G+4*H+2*I+J, where A thru J are 0 or 1.

Start with A, B, ... J =0;

(1) Set A=1. Ask if N is less than the number. If yes leave A=1, else reset it to 0 and recalculate N.

(2) Set B=1. Ask if N is less than the number. If yes leave B=1, else reset it to 0 and recalculate N.

(3) Set C=1. Ask if N is less than the number. If yes leave C=1, else reset it to 0 and recalculate N.

o

o

o

(10) Set J=1. Ask if N is less than the number. If yes leave J=1, else reset it to 0 and recalculate N.

10 questions will determine A thru J and the value N.

A successive approximation analog-to-digital converter uses this principle to convert a voltage to a binary value. The successive approximation register (SAR) sets the bits one at a time, the digital-to-analog converter (DAC) converts its output to a voltage, and the comparator determines whether the voltage is too low or too high. If too low, the SAR sets that bit high for the next iteration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Successive-approximation_ADC

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#7
In reply to #5

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

07/04/2026 4:11 AM

You are wrong. If after 9 questions you have to choose only between 2 numbers (which is true - and they are always consecutive numbers) you just put the 10-th question: "is it smaller than <the higher number>?". If the answer is "yes" you know it's the smaller number; if the answer is "no" you know it's the higher one - no need to ask anything else.

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#3

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

07/01/2026 4:50 AM

The odds to win the $250 in 10 questions is quite high. I think he will guess the nubmer with less than 10 questions, but if the number is in 1-500 area, it will be +1 more question than if the number is in 500-1000 area.

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#8

Re: Friendly Wager (July 2026 Challenge Question)

07/15/2026 10:09 AM

51.2%

>512, >768, >896, >960. From 1 to 960, 50% chance.

40 possibilities left. Split 16 / 24. 16 with 100% chance.

24 left. Split 16 / 8. 8 with 100%% chance. 16 more with 50% chance.

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