Is It Really China's Century?

I suspect it might be when Henry Paulson decides to nationalize Fannie and Freddie, "Northern Rock" style, to re-assure the folks in China holding U.S. mortgage debt that our credit as a nation is still good. I don't think much entrepreneurism is required to collect on a debt.

And watch out, the government controlled newspaper (I think it was the "China Daily") I read while flying across China in 2005, instead of urging the the workers of China to unite, was instead pleading for recent college graduates to stop whining and start their own businesses. A far cry from the old rhetoric of Mao and what I saw in my souvenir copy of Neues Deutschland, circa 1985.

-april05

In my opinion the answer is yes. The stereotype of China being only capable of low cost manufacture is just not true anymore (if it ever was).

A very interesting insight into the "thinking" going on in China today can be gained from reading Mark Leonard's new book "What does China Think".

Hi Prof. - Thank you for the book suggestion. - Larry

China has 1.3 B people. The US has 0.3 B people. China only has to achieve approx. 30% of our per capita GDP to overwhelm the US's GDP. Once their GDP is approx. the same size as the US they become another pole in the planet's economy.

After China becomes that additional pole how much will the Middle East countries like Saudi listen to the US, Britain, etc when they can just as easily do China's bidding? This is an economic and national security issue for the US. Obviously once the Chinese become an economic player on a global scale then the US's ability to use economics as a lever in foreign affairs - think trade embargos, etc - becomes greatly diminished.

The US has 2 options for remaining the global economic power as I see it. The first is space exploration in order to exploit resources (iron, platinum, hydrocarbons, etc.) in space. The second is alternative/clean/green energy. Cheap, clean fuel will become very lucrative as oil becomes more scarce.

We get around that be establishing trade unions.

That's how England and France have any kind of economic influence it's because of the European Trade Union and the establishment of the Euro. Each of those countries over their by themselves wouldn't have much influence otherwise.

China has more people but the United States is still one of the biggest consumers and will remain a huge consumer because we the people don't want to learn to conserve and we don't want to listen to anything but the sports reports.

I'm not saying China won't take the lead. I don't really care.

Every Empire has their rise and fall. China experienced that centries ago when they invented noodles and gun powder and a written language.

The world is different then what it was back then. Even if the do take the lead, I don't think that's going to make my life any different, it will just take the wind out of the sails of our government and they need a dose of humility.

Actually China has already become that global economic power, that pole in the planets economy. their demand for raw materials has already transformed primary metals and mining from sad and depressed to glamorous and sexy. The price that China agrees for iron ore sets the world price, regardless of north american demand and supply...

However demographics and aging make it far more likely that China will grow old before it grows rich.

The initial linear phase of the sigmoid growth curve of Chinas industrialization is already bumping up against the issues of environmental degradation, and limits of global resources. We expect the rate of acceleration of growth to diminish, as it always has and always does.

We see many manufacturing jobs come back to northamerica now that the China price is no longer a small integer fraction of the north american cost.

I work in a manufacturing trade association, and deal with this almost weekly with my members.

I respectfully disagree with space as "hydrocarbon rich," opportunity,but remain open to learning... Bringing in bulk iron from space is a fascinating idea, and would be far more exciting than watching fireworks... Love to hear more.

milo

China MFG is cheaper. Cheaper product cost more money at long term.
"Big recall of toys with Lead ".

Hi to all,

as long as China's people are kept under the thumb, and more or less told what to do and when...................It will be only an apparent success, based mainly in Cities and Towns away from the Country areas.

I think the reason they have done well is simply because of the enormous number of people who are working for very little. Get those people in a situation where they work and get a chunk of the profits and, let them have true 'FREEDOM' and choice, that seems to be the obstacle to me.

The Chinese Government must learn to trust the people. At the moment there is a Communist Government leading a pragmatic and very similar thinking people to the 'west'. Where making money is all.......well pretty much. That cannot be for long. They will expect and fight, as we did in the west for equality in everything as far as possible.

When the people can start to 'vote' Ministers to Government, in proper and true free polls................That is when China will be equal to the west.

The making of money 'per se', with no true wealth spread throughout the people and country, cannot be a true measure of their equality with the USA/Europe.

Does anyone know of a China organisation for inventors? In the 'west' anyone anywhere can invent and gain from that invention. I do not see that happening in China.

babybear

I think there are formal organization of inventors as it was at SU at the time. But I have understood your point.

When I was a student having been prepared to choice my engineering specialization I was very surprised when my teacher said me that any creative idea that even had not been thought out or even had not been come up at engineer's head is already possessing to State anyway. Author of invention could get only the certificate. I was surprised but not for a long time. I had been staying the author of some 20 SU patents further which I hung out [certificates] at my toilet room at the time of state's collapse due to its useless.

But I am not a bit pity that I did that [my inventions]. Any materially gains are good motivation but it is not the only reason especially for creative activity. I was happy to did my work well.

So if you can't comprehend motivation of someone's hard working it does not mean that it's impossible that someone can work better than you with all your very arguable motivations.

By the way China has began to diverse its image from world's manufacturer to world's inventor --- from Made in China to Invent in China. As I know their applications have been invading already patent offices of developed countries.

Nevertheless, nothing daunted, for a while they (India and China) are playing under western industrial code.

I agree, barely they can change it.

Hello caramba:

thank you for your post to aimed at me. I hope you were not insulted by my original post. I did not write it to insult!

I understand what you mean when you say the inventions motivated you and, I am sure that is the same for all inventors.

Can you please explain something? What is 'SU'?

take care...........

stay safe

babybear

Hi babybear,

Having attended undergraduate and graduate engineering schools here in New York State since the 80's for degree and continuing ed. work, I would suggest the China "organization for inventors" are places like Rensselaer Polytechnic, M.I.T., Cal-Tech, and other top engineering schools here in the U.S. and also in Europe.

This is where they learn the fundamentals of engineering and capitalist western culture. Young men and women (likely on scholarship) from Shanghai, Beijing, and other parts of mainland China are some of the best and brightest students attending our schools, and sure gave me some good competition for grades. I have tremendous respect for their work ethic in studying for exams and cooperating in school projects, and I completely understand why their economy has done so well recently.

- Larry

My company decided there was a market for stainless steel versions of our products and determined China as the most viable option as a source for the raw un-machined components (involving casting), with the intent to complete the manufacturing in Europe.

Corporate directors, in compliance with International trade agreements, mandated that the complete product must be manufactured in China.

At first, the quality of these products was such that they were not able to be sold. As the glitches were ironed out, the quality improved dramatically.

While all this was taking place, I happened to catch a documentary on China. The gist of this documentary had to do with the displacement of people from rural farming communities into the workforce.

Then it dawned on me. The person responsible for installing a ball bearing into a housing, might not have seen a bearing in his or her life. This would explain the quality issues.

Everything is evolving so quickly in China. I just hope those people who were "recruited" from those small villages will benefit from this rapid growth.

I visited there in 2003.

Actually, the foplks from the rural villages "self select" to go into manufacturing.

They leave the poverty they know for the chance of making great wealth in urban jobs.

MAny times at some risk because they are not authorised by the authorities to move.

The people moving from rural to urban means china needs to add several "philadelpias" each month in terms of urban population capacity.

Let us know how its going in three years after your "china Partners" decide they have learned enough and no longer wan tto sell "their" products to you; and are competing in the world market with you selling your designs and their manufacturing. I saw it happen to Rexroth.

Milo

They have recognized this as being a problem in China and Chineses companies are hiring consultants for quality management to improve upon these issues.