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The Role of Random Events in Extinction

Posted November 13, 2008 8:48 AM

From Scientific American:

Researchers assess the risk of species extinction with conservation models that combine factors that drive down populations--including habitat loss, hunting and overfishing--with the probability of chance disasters affecting the group. Even if human activities greatly affect a species, "all populations that go extinct [ultimately] suffer a string of unfortunate random events, such as a fire, that wipe out the last individuals," says Brett Melbourne, a mathematical ecologist at the University of Colorado at Boulder.Until recently, mathematical models of extinction risk included only two types of randomness.

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#1

Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/13/2008 2:57 PM

This sounds like a good case for the catastrophicism versus evolution argument.

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#2
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Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/13/2008 11:46 PM

Actually this guy is saying a series of small cuts, rather than the punctuated equilibrium theory of gould and eldridge. In that theory, whatever is left that takes over the now extinct population's now vacant niche " evolves" as a population, increasing frequency of occurrence of prosurvival characteristics. This researcher is working with extant rather than extinct populations, so he is, to use a time metaphor, looking at the "seconds" rather than the "epochs."

Gould and Eldridge's thesis is explained by the geologic record in sudden catastrophes ("punctuating the equilibrium" or "sterilizing entire ecosystems." Radically and irreversibly altering the conditions suddenly, not incrementally in every case. The platinum iridium layer worldwide at the end of the late cretaceous makes my point. http://meteorite.org/KT1.htm . After the shattered equilibrium, whatever manages to survive becomes the most populous and expands to fill vacated niches. The catastrophe is the tank; the evolution thereafter by the surviving population is the guys with bayonets...

milo

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#5
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Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/14/2008 3:09 PM

Thanks Milo,

I gave you a GA. I do still think, however, that this can be referenced in some way to the afore mentioned punctuated equilibrium theory as a sort of micro to the macro.

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#6
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Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/14/2008 3:21 PM

I wonder what the single cell beginners would think of ALL this?

MR. GUY

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#7
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Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/14/2008 3:33 PM

Yes, I agree . Looked at up close a photo is just a collection of small dots (pixels nowadays). but from a far enough away perspective, the image appears out of those dots. These guys are looking at single dots...

Thanks for the GA.

milo

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#3

Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/14/2008 10:42 AM

A serious question. Have the mathematical programmers looked at this level of various catastrophic events on economies and their impact on world events? If not, perhaps they should be looking at how our current meltdown (and potential that associated future wars) will impact populations in the longer term.

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#4
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Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/14/2008 11:55 AM

You make a great point.

If instead of using the economic lens, we use a lense of ecology ( not grren politics but true ecology) then we could watch the rise and fall of various "populations" following their own sigmoidal growth curves.

The crash of any given "population" in the economy has its own real world and biological analogues in that their are more nimble "survivors" which supplant them and their function in the niche that they abandoned.

Right now the population of "over compensated didn't act in a responsible fiduciary way in understanding risk and consequences of their poor decisions fat cat CEO's and bankers is looking for a bit of a trim."

Meaning no disrespect to our own Del the cat, by the way.

milo

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#8
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Re: The Role of Random Events in Extinction

11/14/2008 3:55 PM

Del isn't fat.....wait....is he?

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