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Prepared for the Post Recession?

Posted July 05, 2009 7:46 AM

The economy is forecast to begin rebounding in Q3 or Q4. Early post-Recession periods offer great opportunity for strategic market moves, but manufacturers have to be ready. Are U.S. manufacturers too deep into survival mode to be able to come out punching in post recession? Are cuts too drastic or desperate, rather than aimed at efficiency or positioning for the rebound? Are companies relying too much on head count reduction, or trimming too much promotion, thus squelching chances for needed momentum?

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#1

Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/06/2009 10:57 AM

This may be a simplistic viewpoint from someone with a very small business, but I would think that the the best strategy for being prepared for the rebound is to still be in business. Although if you have cash, now is a great time to buy equipment.

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#3
In reply to #1

Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/08/2009 12:25 PM

Yes it the great time to buy, A machine salesman friend of mine is selling high end machine tools at 30 -50 % off. But he said nobody is buying. Where the good financing deals when you need it.

Jim C

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#2

Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/06/2009 8:45 PM

Gee, the next article was talking about CFOs cutting positions right through 2009. Quite a rebound.

I would say from past experience that most manufacturers will miss the bottom and will be losing momentum on the upswing before they act, playing catch-up football until the next down turn.

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#4

Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/09/2009 11:33 AM

It would be real interesting to know where the author thinks demand is going to be generated from to justify the rebound. The credit necessary to pull forward demand is unavailable. Stimulus or no stimulus, we're losing jobs faster than we can create them, so there may be some instances of individual demand going up, but in the aggregate, not a chance.

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#5

Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/09/2009 1:11 PM

Since so much of the manufacturing base is gone, it is hard for me to see on what basis a real and general rebound is founded.

It does look like the Masters of the Universe really looted the store this time.

It does appear to me that becoming a doctor or a nurse or an attorney or a mechanic will be secure occupations. That is no great change for that has been the situation in all times, good or bad.

Infrastructure spending will have some benefit, but so far I don't see any clear focus.

The wars don't appear to have provided any benefit to the US economically.

The good moves in the areas of healthcare have not been finalized, and even at best will be late in coming.

Much of the US money has been going out of the country for oil to nations that do not have US interests at heart. As a strategic move to strengthen the US moves towards energy independence are clearly mandated. Money printed by the US and spent in those sectors will not be wasted.

Still what needs to be done looks like a complete overhaul, and there appears great resistance to that.

In the US it would appear that many in power want to maintain poverty, ill health, homelessness and undereducated working classes so as to maintain leverage.

To dig out the US desperately needs economic partners.

People laugh at me and ridicule me when I say that Statehood for Russia would have been, and still would be the perfect resolution of the Cold War, but I have my reasons.

First and foremost if Russia had become a State of the US it would have extended a tradition of contract law and property rights that the economist Hernando de Soto Polar posits as absolutely necessary for economic, social justice and freedom.

As well that one great aspect of US culture, a respect for Free Speech would have been strengthened.

Further the threats of Weapons of Mass destruction that are an affront to all working class people would have been greatly diminished.

And what the hell, US cars are still more desirable than Russian cars, and we could make cars in Russia as the Japanese have turned around to make cars successfully in the US.

This recession and this depression is a serious international event that calls for serious and radical changes in the midst of war and wars that do truly threaten all of civilization.

Half measures, and uncoordinated strategies coupled with endemic toleration of corruptions will insure dramatic catastrophes sadly predicted and understood by many as more than likely.

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#6
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Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/09/2009 2:24 PM

"Half measures, and uncoordinated strategies coupled with endemic toleration of corruptions will insure dramatic catastrophes sadly predicted and understood by many as more than likely."

Totally true. GA.

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#9
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Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/10/2009 11:22 AM

I Like that one too. It reminds me of another quote I saw on a poster long ago:

We the willing, led by the unknowing, are doing the impossible for the ungrateful. We have done so much for so long with so little, we are now qualified to do anything with nothing.

Sort of sounds like a job description for an engineer.

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#7
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Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/09/2009 3:01 PM

I agree with your comment about the manufacturing base.

This whole thing reminds me of the childrens story of the "Little Red Hen". I think of the little red hen as representing our manufacturing base. When we kill the little red hen there will be no one to bake the bread.

The politicians and, if you go by the election results, the majority of the public fail to understand that if you tax big business out of existence there will be no one to provide jobs and no one to tax.

Even scarier if you think about it is that every war in history was won first in the factory long before it was won on the battlefield. We are ignorantly making our nation very vulnerable.

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#8

Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

07/09/2009 11:21 PM

I wonder who is predicting the economic turnaround. Here in the Peoples Republic of Arnold things are not good. Iou's, a governing body that wants to tax and destroy the Producers of the Wealth that everyone seems to think is unending is going very well. I dont see how we can keep this up much longer........I am getting very tired......

maybe the truth should be free and the sarcsm should cost you......

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#10

Re: Prepared for the Post Recession?

08/05/2009 9:33 PM

These 'Forecasts' have been going on since I can remember. It's a lot of Wall St. hype, easy to paint rosy scenarios, that have little basis in fact.

What you say about the unpreparedness of industry, the lag time in gearing up, and the loss of qualified personnel is the Catch 22 that Wall St glosses over in trying to maintain financial momentum. They're full of it! A demand for raw materials will show up in my mining stocks, and so far they are doing nothing more than riding the last hype.

When we've squeezed out the last RPM from old equipment, we'll have to replace it, and much of that equipment is still fairly new from the last boom. I think that's where the real cycle is. We're just making do with what we have right now. Maybe not a bad idea at all.

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