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Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 10:38 AM
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#1

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 1:07 PM

Puff piece....

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#2

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 2:11 PM

Not really surprising. Farming has seen the same claims but the reality of getting a fully autonomous farm machine to work in real life conditions is still way past what our technology can realistically support and deal with. Heck the present tech can barely manage to work most of the time just doing the background operations in a single machine.

No real difference in the realistic claims that someday a robot will replace a human in a complex skills job. So far our most advances robots can barely walk and navigate a obstacle course a 2 year old can handle with ease and the few that can take magnitudes of order more time to do it.

Given that I seriously doubt any will be replacing people like me who work as skilled field technicians who can go out into extramly remote areas and do repair to complex devices using bare minimal self supplied and local resources to do the work.

Sure the burger flippers and grocery store checkout line clerks days are numbered and so are many other low skill minimal thought and action ones as well but beyond those most anyone who has a job that requires both high mental skills and high mobility or both together being replaced by a machines is way beyond anything that will happen in my lifetime or likely the next 100 years.

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 3:19 PM

Hey if farms were as level and smooth as a concrete assembly line floor, then no problem.

The first mesquite stump that trips a buster, and it will be acres and acres of "I dunno why the machine keeps failing to open furrow #3...!" Refer to autonomous tractor/planter section 4.3.3.3.3.3....on page xiiii/3.2 of the addendum for an answer.

In the old days, it was work, sweat, blood, and tears that made a farm productive. Not in that order, and not including cuss words.

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#5
In reply to #3

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 5:04 PM

"In the old days, it was work, sweat, blood, and tears that made a farm productive. Not in that order, and not including cuss words."

Still that way. Now the farmer just has a air conditioned cab to sit in between those events.

I think that these dreams of full automation of everything and everyone are way over rated and very poorly and unrealistically thought out.

Contrary to what so many seem to think real life work and real life operating conditions are extremely unpredictable and are forever changing.

I have field related work I do every year in the same places yet every year there is some new unforeseeable issue to deal with. Something got carried in I can't see in the grass and ran thought the mower or baler or stuck in a tire.

Or a rock I have went over without issue for 30+ years now, now knowing it is there, got pushed up just high enough by frost this year to catch on or get pulled into who knows what and all of them do damage in some way no robot or fully automated machine could ever deal with.

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#4

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 3:36 PM

Where is the regulatory agency for this? You can't have open loop safety. The DOT needs to adopt FAA regulatory steering for this sort of technology. Vehicles need to communicate with others so they can do intelligent lane changes. It also means that the speed limit will be externally controlled based on traffic density. Ideally you will have to program in your destination, and if road ways have too much traffic, you'll be notified to wait until there is an opening for you.

But we shall see how far they get until liability kills it for lack of a unifying system design.

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#6
In reply to #4

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 5:11 PM

And that's just the needs for the system to deal with its own functions.

What about that one vehicle off on a side road that is the first to travel there in several days only to find there's something laying in the road it can't properly register on it's sensors?

Or that the road itself is now impassable or whatever the last vehicle to pass through there has changed again?

What about those cows or other animals that are out? Or that unautomated farm machine that broke down that's not transmitting that it's sitting there taking up the whole road?

That's the reality that machine intelligence will not be able to deal with for a very long time no matter how much we wish it will.

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 6:19 PM

TCM, there will be roadways, that only automated vehicles can operate on, and you folks out there in the "bad lands", will require manual operator at the wheel.

The bigger issue is phasing this in. I'm thinking the high congestion traffic of multilane limited access roads of city's and interstate. That's where high accident rates are currently.

Having an extremely 'smart' system that can recognize every single target, probably is not possible. What about a target that is purposely trying to run into an autonomous vehicle?

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#13
In reply to #7

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/06/2017 10:05 AM

You already disqualify yourself from working on this by referring to human users of the roadway as "targets". We, I assure you, do not like be considered as "targets."

I watched a movie this weekend on pay per view ("Logan," I think it was) where the trucks on the highway appeared to be just boxes with wheels, no drivers, and their only reaction to traffic was to emit a horn signal without slowing down in the least. While I realize this is just a movie, could this be the future, where "cargo" is more important than humans, animals, etc.?

The whole reason for cargo in the first place is the humans, animals, etc., so be forewarned about that. Even when carrying humans, animals, etc., they should not be regarded as mere "cargo" anymore than a human body is to be regarded as "materials," a la Victor Frankenstein. The Victorian Era writers actually began this consideration of the human condition, and technology is yet to catch up with their vision of what it means to be human, to be an animal (especially mammals and birds).

Grow some kindness and God will be especially fond of you when you eventually meet face-to-face.

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#14
In reply to #13

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/06/2017 11:31 AM

The reality is every machine will follow an exact program that tells it the practical value of something and weighs it against the value of its cargo. Something that for humans largely due to emotions do poorly.

Say a cargo truck is moving down a road and some person walks out in front of it. To the trucks brain that person is illegally there plus has a finite value which if below the value of the cargo dictates it puts a reasonable effort not avoiding that person but not to the point it does damage to itself or its payload.

The human may be valued at $500K (national statistical earning average for 10 years as a baseline value) the fact they were doing something illegal diminishes that value half. The truck is worth $500K and its payload is worth another $500K therefore try to avoid but if needed run the dummy over while recording it on a dozen HD sensors and cameras.

Now the same scenario with a human at the wheel has the driver try to avoid the person by going in the ditch destroying the $500K truck, plus cargo pus killing themself, plus sending debris flying into traffic which also damages other vehicles and hurts or kills other people costing millions of dollars plus the lives of innocents all to avoid running over some uneducated unemployed drunk hillbilly whose POS vehicle ran out of fuel and figured walking in the middle of the road would get them help faster than staying on the side like the law dictated they do.

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#15
In reply to #14

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/06/2017 12:29 PM

Why does it always have to be the drunk hillbilly? Couldn't it just once be the hillbilly Bigfoot hunter that was momentarily stunned by a close encounter with the Beast, or the Hell Hound? ROFLMAO!!!

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#17
In reply to #15

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/09/2017 2:10 AM

Because the data said so.

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#18
In reply to #17

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/09/2017 10:00 AM

....but as for me and Santa, we believe.

I got chased (or hallucinated that) one night driving back to Amarillo from Lubbock area on a remote farm-market road east of Lubbock that runs south to north, and even has a lane for north to south also. The moon was off to the east, and I was going all of 65 mph, when I looked to my right and saw the outline of what appeared to be a speedy Bigfoot, either that, or a very large werewolf. Definitely not the hell-hound, as this guy was running as a bipedal, not a quadruped.

I sped up, as it was quite disturbing to me. That Bigfoot should be named The High Plains Roamer. If it was a werewolf, just name him Jack. (Remember Wolf-man Jack on the Radio back in the day?)

No, I was not drunk, or any other mal-state of consciousness.

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#8
In reply to #4

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/05/2017 8:02 PM

Until all this happens, I still have my freedom to drive over to the hardware store for a part whenever I want.

I envision a time when future couch potatoes will hardly believe the ancients were capable of controlling their own vehicles.

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#9

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/06/2017 3:18 AM

Is that a reason to stop, then?

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#10

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/06/2017 7:04 AM

I have wondered why trains aren't self driving. Seems to me there are less variables. All it has to do is stop and go, yet we still have train accidents where the conductor failed to slow down to an appropriate speed. Lets start with the simplest machines before a car with so many variables out there on the road.

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/06/2017 8:00 AM

<...wondered why trains aren't self driving...>

Er, ah, they are already

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands_Light_Railway

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_line

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#16
In reply to #11

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/08/2017 6:40 AM

Then why are most of the crashes due to high speeds? Must not be working very well. Maybe we don't want cars like that on the road then.

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#12
In reply to #10

Re: Oops, Reality Is Finally Dawning

06/06/2017 8:47 AM

I believe the issue with removing train engineers is called "Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen."

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