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When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/21/2017 12:47 PM

We can see it coming, the day when humans are no longer employable in certain jobs because a robot has become more cost efficient....How long is your job safe? No one can say, but we can make an estimate....

..."As MIT Technology Review points out, these predictions have a way of coming earlier. AI wasn't supposed to beat humans at the game of Go until 2027 and that happened back in 2015. In fact, it took Google's DeepMind just two years to come up with the necessary tech, instead of the 12 that was predicted.

On the other hand, as 40 years is an average person's working life, predictions that extend past that might be unreliable as they are based on technology in which the experts might not have enough practical knowledge.

Interestingly, there is a difference in how experts from different parts of the world view the future. Asian researchers put the AI takeover in just 30 years, while their North American counterparts see that happening in about 74 years. Full automation of labor is expected in under 125 years."...

http://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/heres-when-machines-will-take-your-job-predict-ai-gurus

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#1

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/21/2017 3:03 PM

In most if not all of these skills I suspect that neither pure silicon (AI) or pure carbon (human) processing power will dominate in the future. Yes, there will be intervals where one mode versus the other will dominate but I think a cooperative teaming of both forms of intelligence will ultimately dominate in the future. This is already happening in chess.

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#2

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/21/2017 4:00 PM

Until SKY NET becomes self-aware we should be OK...wary, but OK.

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#3

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/21/2017 6:23 PM

Fortunately, due to my age, I don't have to worry about AI. My grand kids and great grand kids, yes; I worry about their future. I fear that AI and robotics will force them into positions that are not compatible with their hopes and dreams. They may become robots themselves. I can't see the joy of driving a shift car being replaced by a self driving car or a device that wipes my a** for me. There may come a time when humans say enough is enough and destroy the robots that have taken our jobs and our free will. I think such a revolution can happen.

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#10
In reply to #3

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 11:05 AM

The movie Dune was based on this.

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#17
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 9:27 AM

In the same situation and heartily agree.

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#4

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/21/2017 8:48 PM

Well, since I retired, I help my wife with the vacuuming. One of these days we'll spring for one of those robot vacuums, so I'm good, it can have my job!

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#20
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 10:49 AM

The Roombas shall rise and we will all be swept away.

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#21
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 11:09 AM

A common house cat rules a roomba.

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#24
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 11:18 AM

More correctly the cat is a "felinus roombus vehere" (FCV). A modern species not yet recognized by TICA, the international cat association. At present there is no riding competition in the rules for judging cat breeds at shows. Perhaps when they institute automated judging at cat shows, then the FCVs will see an opportunity.

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#28
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 1:27 PM

First there were the Puppy Bowl and Kitten Bowl, now there is a Bunny Bowl. I'm okay with all the cuteness but a bit more action would be nice. Start with 18 Roombas, 9 for each team and add 18 cats. 3 points each time a Roomba makes it into a goal, 6 points if it goes in with a cat on it.

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#30
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 1:35 PM

There's more to it than that. It's a feline evolutionary process following a line similar to Stephen Hawking to Christopher Pike to Davros and finally to a Dalek.

Wouldn't go for a Felinus Cybermannus with all the stomping about that would go with it.

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#33
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 1:38 PM

You can bet any Dalekat would only say "exterminate" when (1) it was a human (or time lord) they did not like, or (2) if it was a cat-eating dog or fox.

For mice, the quote would be "play time", or "happy hour".

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#31
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 1:36 PM

Do they have to be Roomba? They have competition now, and it is smart enough to see the room, and navigate around obstacles without bumping forth and back and forth.

I am thinking the next one may have crab-claws for depositing cats on its back, and clear goal seeker burned into memory.

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#36
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/26/2017 10:28 AM

Roomba? Doesn't have to be. They just have to glide silently in their quest for domination of the universe. Levitate as well perhaps.

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#37
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/26/2017 10:52 AM

So then, we may shorten the name Dalekat to simply Dalek. Exterminate~~!!

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#38
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/26/2017 11:21 AM

https://youtu.be/J9P20HuX7mo

But then there will be the Dogleks.

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#40
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/26/2017 12:16 PM

One dog on a roomba is easy. More than one and they will keep falling off trying to sniff each other's butt.

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#41
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/26/2017 1:27 PM

Or put the Roomba into a self-induced spin out, thereby casting them off each. I just want the Roomba to learn how to bring me a good cigar, and a Mojito.

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#39
In reply to #21

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/26/2017 11:23 AM

Never mind.

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#5

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 2:29 AM

We do not need the AI to do research work.

We already know in a million years the answer is 42!

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#6

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 5:08 AM

"these predictions have a way of coming earlier. AI wasn't supposed to beat humans at the game of Go until 2027 and that happened back in 2015." Go is a game with a defined set of rules and a limited number of spaces where counters can be placed. Writing an algorithm would be (proved to be) relatively simple. Most of the tasks/jobs that MIT is predicting will be overtaken by AI do not have simple rules and also require judgements. Take autonomous vehicles for instance. A child runs out in front of an AI driven fuel tanker. If it does not emergency brake the child will be killed. If it does emergency brake the vehicle immediately behind will rear end the the tanker causing an explosion that will kill not just the passengers of the following vehicle but also the child and several local pedestrians. What do you program the AI to do? When the case comes to court, will the programmer be held responsible for which decision the AI made? Surveys and predictions based on what the technology is or will be capable of doing bear no relation to when that technology will be implemented. The ethics of deploying AI and the economics of supporting idle ex workers replaced by AI will have a bigger influence than the technical ability to do things.

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#9
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 10:51 AM

..."In a disturbing conclusion, the report suggests the jobs of between two million and 4.4 million truck drivers in the US and Europe could become redundant by 2030 if efforts to introduce driverless trucks maintain their current momentum."...

https://www.tradetrucks.com.au/product-news/1706/australia-a-possible-test-bed-for-driverless-trucks

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#15
In reply to #6

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 2:14 AM

Gives us something to think about???

But what happens in today's real world?

1. Most likely the driver slams on his brakes and causes a huge accident.

2. The other option is the driver avoids the accident and the kid gets hit.

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#7

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 5:49 AM

Too late I've retired... and you won't get AI making self wood bows
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#8
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 6:56 AM

Yeah, well what about self making?

.. There's no chance a robot could take away my fun either..

A robot playing go? Chess?

They aren't playing at all.

.. if /and /or x/or .. just because it's called logic, doesn't mean it's being smart.

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#11

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 11:36 AM

AI will come for my job when AI is stupid enough to take my job. Artificial stupidity?

The goal of artificial intelligence is to become as unreliable as a normal person.

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#12
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 11:51 AM

Call me unreliable....

No AI can ever master the 30 second catnap whilst staring at a computer screen full of text, as I have. Just when it is time to go ahead and bang head on desk, I wake up.

Need more sleep....

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#13

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 12:03 PM

I like the Sirius Cybernetics GPP (Genuine People Personality) feature. I particularly favor the manic depressive.

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#14
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/22/2017 2:09 PM

That way, your robot doesn't know whether you spring lightly around the room, dancing the morning away, or mope through and muddle away during a high level meeting?

At least - safety and certification re-training only takes as long as the standard software upgrade - with Microsoft, that is about every five minutes to patch the last upgrade, and it takes six minutes to download.

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#16

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 3:14 AM

I was talking to a client about this earlier today. Companies are finding ways to downsize via automation. In the future, many jobs will be eliminated by AI. So when this happens, what will the displaced workers do? Go on government assistance? Or move back in with mom and dad?

Sure, AI will make our lives easier. Robots doing tasks that we don't like doing so it can free up our time to do the things we want to. Sounds good, but think about the people who will lose their jobs ... all the while, our population keeps growing and growing.

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#18
In reply to #16

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 9:34 AM

Will they ever be employed as migrant wokers?

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#19
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 10:46 AM

The transition has been going on for years in the agricultural industry. The first one I was aware of was the transition from beans grown on stringed trellises to bush beans. The bush beans can be mechanically picked while the trellis beans required manual stringing of he trellises, training of the vines onto the strings and manual picking.

Most crops are being engineered to suit automated management and harvesting. It's why less than 5% of the population manages to feed the rest of us.

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#23
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 11:14 AM

The displaced workers, or the robots? When I was a kid rowboats came with oars, now they come with ears.

Humans will just play golf, procreate, go on cruises, get lawyer settlements for taking the latest drug that has one side effect (death?), or just sit and play Grand Theft Auto while consuming mass quantities of "weed infused" Doritos in the green bag.

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#25
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 11:19 AM

But how will they get paid for it?

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#26
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 11:32 AM

Welfare.

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#34
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 9:19 PM
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#35
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/26/2017 9:20 AM

That could be an answer (not saying a good one), and go ahead and induct everyone (I mean everyone) into the military (sure pick your branch of service, maybe even MOS), and make this monthly stipend equivalent to military grade pay.

Then you have something resembling and answer to disaster response, a huge standing army ready to respond to any invasion, etc.

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#42
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 1:31 AM

Whoooorawww...

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#43
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 9:09 AM

SPACESHIP TROOPERS!

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#22

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 11:09 AM

One theory of economics says that a certain portion of the population produces goods of value necessary for survival. In a subsistence economy, 100% of the population is involved full time just obtaining or producing enough to survive to the following day. That model of economics also says that if the producers are able to make a surplus, the first thing that happens is they have some amount of spare time which goes towards art, religion, politics and thinking about ways to do things more efficiently, in other words time to develop a culture. Once the surplus is great enough to support individuals who are not involved in production, you can afford to have politicians, priests, artists and the Kardasians.

With the robot economy, you need to have a way to transfer surplus wealth to those who need to spend it. I recall one short story based on a robot economy where non-producers were paid to consume surplus production and one renegade family was getting rich by hiding robots in the cellar that were kept busy wearing out clothing. I suppose we could all become artists, bloggers or just celebrities.

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#27

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 1:19 PM

My not-yet grandchildren's grandchildren will be dead long before then.

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#29

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 1:32 PM

Since my retirement my "job" has been, Motorcycle Photojournalist. Most of the work has been product evaluations. By the time AI comes close to doing this I'll already be obsolete.

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#32
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/23/2017 1:38 PM

Common sense in a world full of morons is basically just moronic. But all the kids could still be above average.

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#44

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 10:17 AM

I think what's overlooked is that when AI is so smart that it is smarter than us, we likely will have begun augmenting ourselves with technology to live longer, think quicker, etc. I think we are less likely to be replaced by machines as much as gradually merge with them.

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#45
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 12:10 PM

So at what point precisely do we become the (resistance is futile) Borg?

Is that actually OK with you? Are you quite mad? Capt. John Luke Piccard would be most disappointed with such thinking, as he has faced them in battle!

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#46
In reply to #45

Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 1:31 PM

lol, I'm hoping we can keep our individuality and still upgrade our memory and processing power not to mention the cool exo-suits.

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#47
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 1:31 PM

Resistance is not futile!

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#48
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 1:38 PM

What is that? The mother of all Borgers? The praying mantis from hell?

Does she have an extra magneto for a Mantis 7222M in her pocket, or at least the ignition kit?

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#49
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 1:42 PM

Not a praying mantis, Species 8472, the one species the Borg could not assimilate.

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#50
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/27/2017 2:40 PM

They do have a certain independent look to them.

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#51
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Re: When is AI Coming for Your Job

06/28/2017 4:44 AM

Borgs are just a nuisance....

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