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Virus Spread Simulation

03/14/2020 9:53 PM

Here is an interesting simulation that shows the effects of isolation, social distancing, etc. on the spread of a virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

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#1

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/14/2020 10:41 PM

I so think, if its like chicken pox or measles, the cure is that you never be infected for a second time is to be infected as early as possible.

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#2

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/14/2020 11:12 PM

One has to wonder just where in this real life scenario we are in the curve...and what the effects of social distancing will have on the longevity of the crisis...will it slow way down in the spring and die off...? maybe...will it come back in the fall? ...will it be a yearly occurrence in some iteration now? Will a vaccine be forthcoming? Just how many people are infected in the US right now? ....we don't know, the US has 2,830 cases with 589 new cases occurring yesterday...that's better than a 25% increase, if this trend continues total cases could ramp up rather quickly, that would be around 14,000 cases within a week....

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/14/2020 11:30 PM

Good questions. Instead of a vaccine, we need a cure such as in a thread of yours.

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/14/2020 11:39 PM

Your body can easily fight this virus off if you are in good health with a strong immune system, if that's not the case you better hide in hole till it's all over....

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#5
In reply to #3

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/15/2020 12:16 AM

Instead of → In addition to.

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#23
In reply to #2

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 10:26 AM

One has to wonder just where in this real life scenario we are in the curve...and what the effects of social distancing will have on the longevity of the crisis...

Not enough data points... get back to me in about a year...

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#6

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/15/2020 4:13 PM

For anyone interested in the math...

For a group of N people, there are 3 groups of people: the Susceptible (S), the Infected (I), and the Recovered (R), and thus the model is called SIR. Individuals progress from Susceptible to Infected to Recovered. Once recovered they are immune to repeat infection.

The dynamics are described by three equations, which describe the rate of change of each of the three groups.

(1) The number progressing from S to I is proportional to the product of S and I (like a chemical reaction) times the infection rate β. The infection rate β is proportional to the reciprocal of the number of contacts per unit time.

(2) The change in I is the difference between newly infected (S to I) and recovery (I to R). (The assumption is almost 100% recovery, true here). The recovery rate is γ, the inverse of the time to recover.

(3) The change in R is the recovery rate times I.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology

The ratio, R0, of infection rate to recovery rate, determines the dynamics:

where R0 is basically the number of S that can be infected by each I before recovery.

This number, R0, can be reduced by reducing β (reducing contacts) and by improving care (increasing γ).

The equations can be solved knowing the parameters:

Blue=Susceptible, Green=Infected, and Red=Recovered

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology

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#8
In reply to #6

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/15/2020 7:54 PM

Est. 9 - 10 days to peak...

Est. 10 - 20k new cases a day at peak

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#16
In reply to #8

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/17/2020 12:36 AM

I'm revising my peak daily new cases to 4 - 5k....

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#44
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Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/20/2020 11:02 PM

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#45
In reply to #44

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 5:49 AM

That peak is what today/tomorrow?

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#47
In reply to #45

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 12:10 PM

This is only an attempt at an estimate....est peak 3/23 - 3/25...but could be off one way or the other...everything depends on how well the public isolation scheme works...the peak number is quite variable as that depends on the amount of testing...

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#52
In reply to #47

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 1:17 PM

Thanks, on another note,

I went grocery shopping this morning to pick up some eggs and bread... the eggs were sold out, and there was a run on bread. The Fruit and vegetables were fine, at least the store shelves were fine.

we always have 2-3 weeks of stock maybe more, (soups, dry goods, etc...) , but the perishables, we tend to get as we need them.

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#46
In reply to #44

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 8:37 AM

I do appreciate your attempts to fabricate good news. However, this is not a good time for wishful thinking. Giving people false hope can lead to greater depression when reality slaps us in the face.

We are engineers and engineering admirers here at CR4. We are not epidemiologists and we certainly have no direct access to any data we can verify.

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#48
In reply to #46

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 12:14 PM

Your scolding seems premature....

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#49
In reply to #48

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 12:32 PM

Says the one without businesses closed all around them. Your level of compassion is distinct.

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#51
In reply to #49

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 1:09 PM

Really,...

Businesses closing, those are preventive measures... and that why the projection are used as a reference and answers your post #46.

If we (we as in you, me and the rest of the country) don’t hit the reference points/marks, and it gets worse, that means more needs to be done, if the projections levels out or drops, then we are on the right path.

Redfred, you should know that,... or is there something else your getting at?

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#56
In reply to #51

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 2:25 PM

Yes, I know the closing of businesses are a preventative measure. I hope an effort that's not too late. I made this comment of location to remind some that I am living this and not watching it from afar.

My criticism in post #46 is two fold. As you also responded, placing a date on the peak infection curve just a few days in the future is wishful thinking. My other concern is actually an unstated concern that people should look again at the dated curve and notice the measured versus projected infection levels deviate a few days prior to the last measured date. The actual infection rate in this simulation is not declining as the prediction shows. Massaging the data to fit a preconceived notion is wrong, regardless of how noble is the notion.

Lastly, it appears that this disease is a stealth disease. A stealth disease is a disease that is contagious prior to symptoms occurring. Thus seemingly healthy people are spreading this disease. While it is wise to not waste a limited supply of test kits on the healthy, we cannot identify those who are contagious until it is too late. Thus the large closing of social activity and businesses I am experiencing in a hope to slow down the progression of this disease.

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#57
In reply to #56

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 3:01 PM

I agree, it is wishful thinking,... but as we have seen, this outbreak is reacting/spreading fast,... and the data point should come in equally fast. And the short term projections she you better get prepared for the next plan of action if it keeps going upward.

It’s a huge and tough decision to close the businesses being the over all and lasting impact that it’ll make, and I can see where they wanted to see where the outbreak is trending... they just did to have enough data point to make the call.

At the time to make the decision it was ???... yet now in hindsight, one can easily say, yes, they waited too long.

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#50
In reply to #46

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 1:05 PM

I don’t know where SE got his data he used, but considering the information he’s so far provided is sound,... these are projection and are just that... projections. That can change.

Since this is unfolding, it’s wise to collect data points to see where everything is, and where we are heading. That’s were projects comes in... I’m sure SE realizes that.

And IMO, it doesn’t hurt to question the data.

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#54
In reply to #50

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 1:43 PM

I think you get it, we need a framework to assess where we stand and if the outbreak is progressing as expected, or if there are forces at work that we don't understand...I'm trying to understand how this is playing out and these are my methods, you guys are just looking over my shoulder here....

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#55
In reply to #54

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 1:54 PM

Yes,... i recognized what you were doing, it started my post #23, hence my smarta$$ remark. That was so graciously Mark OT... I’m sure due to my feeble attempt at humor. Not.

In real life,... when trouble shooting I was so disappointed I didn't started collecting data points earlier than I did,... to be able to hang my hat on sooner on the direction of troubleshooting,... so to speak.

You were the only on here that was collecting data... almost from the start. While the rest of us opinionated bastards ‘challenged’ it.

And To redfred, I don’t believe SE claimed to be an expert in the field of virology et al, but statistics do play a large roll in engineering.

I don’t speak for everyone here, but on this thread and threads like this,... I would say SE is the resident expert here at CR4

and that is my opinion.

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#73
In reply to #46

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 11:13 PM

Here's some good news for you....

With a vaccine for COVID-19 still a long way from being realized, Johns Hopkins immunologist Arturo Casadevall is working to revive a century-old blood-derived treatment for use in the United States in hopes of slowing the spread of the disease.

With the right pieces in place, the treatment could be set up at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore within a matter of weeks, Casadevall says.

The technique uses antibodies from the blood plasma or serum of people who have recovered from COVID-19 infection to boost the immunity of newly infected patients and those at risk of contracting the disease. These antibodies contained in the blood's serum have the ability to bind to and neutralize SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Casadevall—a Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of molecular microbiology and immunology and infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and School of Medicine—published a paper on the proposal today in The Journal of Clinical Investigation.

"Deployment of this option requires no research or development," he says. "It could be deployed within a couple of weeks since it relies on standard blood-banking practices."

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/covid-19-antibody-sera-arturo-casadevall/

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#75
In reply to #73

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 8:13 AM

Yes, I heard about the convalescent sera treatment method but did you hear or think about why this old technique was abandoned in the past?

Before I don my "nay" saying, devil's advocate cloak I must say this. I am neither an epidemiologist nor a clinician. Anyone feeling ill should contact their clinician about a course of action. As I don my cloak I remind all that this is just my musings on the drawbacks of relying on this procedure.

First, this technique is the treatment of last resort for contagious viral diseases with no other treatment. It is a "fall back" procedure that requires convalescing, recovering patients that have endured the pathogen by producing antibodies. These recovering patients must still have antibodies in their blood serum when drawn for treatment to others. Then there are the concerns of other blood borne diseases.

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#11
In reply to #6

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/16/2020 11:00 AM

A complicating attribute of applying this epidemiology mathematics to the public data is this math (and the actual infection agent) accurately knows who is and is not infected at any given time. Presently outside of China, South Korea and possibly Italy, we do not have enough approved test material to test everyone, let alone a majority in a hot spot. It has also become apparent that many who become infected with COV-19 are asymptomatic. So outside those ill enough to require testing, treatment and the unfortunate ones who succumb to this disease, we do not know the full extent of the infection.

It is also too soon to tell at what rate if any does immunity wear off.

Nonetheless, this epidemiology mathematics does provide an insight into what is happening.

GA

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#13
In reply to #11

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/16/2020 8:25 PM

Any model makes simplifying assumptions. The SIR model assumes that all the individuals in each compartment are identical, so all the young or old, well or sick, etc, average out. Some may interface with a lot of others (high β) and others with few. It's an average, so your results may vary.

The immunity could wear off in time, but not likely before the epidemic has run itself out.

As the epidemic progresses, the percentage of "Recovered" rises. The initial reproductive number R0 = β/γ is the number an infected individual infects initially. If R0 is greater than one, the number of infected increases like a chain reaction.

The effective reproductive number, Reff, is R0 multiplied by the fraction of the population that is susceptible, S/N. As more of the population recovers and is then immune, Reff drops, reaching 1.0, at which point the number of the infected starts decreasing to zero.

Blue is Susceptible, Red is Infected, and Green is Recovered. The Effective Reproductive Number (black), Reff, starts at the Initial Reproductive Number R0 and decreases. For Reff < 1.0, the number of infected must decrease.

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#18
In reply to #13

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/17/2020 8:46 AM

Yes, every model makes simplifications. Hence the aphorism attributed to George Box, "All models are wrong, but some are useful."

The likely asymptomatic individuals are what scares me.

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#7

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/15/2020 7:18 PM

Looking at the pattern of the outbreak in China...

Pretty much 1 month start to finish...we should hit a peak new infection rate within a week or two....then maybe a week or two residual new cases...

We should be out of the woods by the second week in April....

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#9
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Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/15/2020 10:05 PM

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#12
In reply to #7

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/16/2020 12:41 PM

I think your assumption that the infection rate will run a similar course as China and N. Korea needs to be adjusted for American behavior, which is much more like Italy's.

China, being authoritarian and having a compliant population, was able to enforce a quarantine of millions to drive down the infection rate and isolate a large affected area. That is not really possible in the US.

Korea also has a mostly cooperative population and quickly engaged in aggressive testing so it could also isolate hot spots. Obviously that is not happening here.

What worries me is that it seems one can be contagious yet be symptom free, or appear to be simply suffering from seasonal allergies. Most of us will self impose social distancing and hygiene but how many apparently healthy (or not too sick) but contagious people will adopt the common "I'm an American I'll do what I want" attitude.

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#14
In reply to #12

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/16/2020 11:44 PM

Most of us will self impose social distancing and hygiene but how many apparently healthy (or not too sick) but contagious people will adopt the common "I'm an American I'll do what I want" attitude.

Good post, but why do you think this "I'm an American I'll do what I want" attitude is common?

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#21
In reply to #14

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 7:58 AM

Mikerho: It came from hearing about this:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/clark-county/coronavirus-tweets-from-ccsd-candidate-go-viral-1981380/

I don't disagree with SE that most Americans will pull together and do what is recommended but it won't take too many like this woman to keep the disease circulating.

Also, a recent poll reported by NPR shows that "Just 40% of Republicans now say it is a real threat, down from 72% in February. A majority of Republicans (54%) said they think it has been blown out of proportion, more than double what it was in February (23%)." How is that affecting their behavior?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816680033/poll-americans-dont-trust-what-they-re-hearing-from-trump-on-coronavirus

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#26
In reply to #21

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 10:44 AM

So JRiversW, your opinion and subsequent statement here is based on one drunken tweet from some airhead? ...Shirley you don't expect us to believe that....

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#27
In reply to #26

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 12:25 PM

Don't call me Shirley

Actually that story was just a random thing I heard on some news show, but it made me think, which makes it the answer to Mikerho's question. I had to search for some mention of it to recall where I first heard it.

The concept of liberty being akin to "I'll do what I want" in the pursuit of happiness is deeply embedded in the American psyche. Shirley this one drunk air head is not exceptional...in that regard. Maybe it's not just Americans.

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#28
In reply to #26

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 12:45 PM

You and Mikerho have misread JRiversW comments. He did not say most Americans will do what they want. He said our independent streak will mean some of us will do what they want regardless of any data brought by anyone that disagrees with preconceived notions. He also provided a report of just such an individual that will not accept anything but their own preferences. He also pointed out that it doesn't take many solipsistic people to spread this disease far and wide.

A demonstration that other Americans refuse others perspectives was not needed. He already made his point.

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#29
In reply to #28

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 1:00 PM

Yeah but those people will probably sober up long enough to realize that they could be responsible for causing the death of loved ones, or at least someone will point that out to them at some point, that should be enough to curtail reckless behavior to acceptable limits....

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#30
In reply to #29

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 1:22 PM

I certainly hope so. I'm just not as optimistic as you.

Most of us acting responsibly could be enough to "flatten the curve" and a**holery will tend to get a person socially distanced as well. So, there's optimism.

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#65
In reply to #30

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 2:43 PM

Well it seems New York City is going to be the worst offender and that's no surprise...

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#66
In reply to #65

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 4:58 PM

I guess the hospital ship USNC Comfort was ordered to deploy off the coast of New York, that’s a 1,000 bed hospital,... which for New York is a drop in the bucket.

I don’t know if this is true that they’re organizing hotels for as extra beds.

it would make sense, since the hotels are beginning to ask for a bail out.

in all the areas, it appears things are being locked down and to stay home. Which makes sense... not to be construed as Marshall Law.

they are even considering mobilizing cruise ships for beds... but frankly,.. I always felt cruise ships where nothing but culture incubators. But that’s my opinion.

Do your best to stay home and stay safe everyone,... the sooner we can get through this, the better

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#67
In reply to #66

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 8:57 PM

I don't think they could clean a cruise ship to the level required for a hospital ship...better stadiums and gymnasiums and auditoriums for overflow...they could set up tent hospitals...

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#68
In reply to #67

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 10:29 PM

No,...the HVAC is a cultured Peter dish.

i agree with the gymnasiums and auditoriums and the like, with the exception of beds, most of the infrastructure would be in place.

the governor shut down the schools, and no meetings of more then 10 people, that includes homes, or face a large fine

Harbor Freight donated this masks and gloves to area hospitals...

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#90
In reply to #68

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 2:11 PM

That’s cultured Petri dish... not peters dish...

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#76
In reply to #65

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 11:29 AM

Why must you denigrate others with misleading, incomplete sentences? Only pond scum take glee in human beings suffering from any disease.

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#86
In reply to #76

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 12:56 PM

NY has half the cases in the country....not a gleeful statement

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#89
In reply to #86

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 1:55 PM

And you have not made an accurate statement. NY has half of the tested and confirmed cases in the country at this time. Nobody knows how many asymptomatic and modestly symptomatic cases exist that should be considered COVID-19 positive nor how and when this pandemic will ultimately end.

When anyone leaves out information by using an ellipsis (three periods) be very careful assuming what has been left out. They may leave out extraneous information to focus the reader or to mislead the reader. Similarly an author should be careful when using an ellipsis for it is easy to be misunderstood by a reader.

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#91
In reply to #89

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 2:18 PM

You just said the same thing I did....

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#92
In reply to #91

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 4:27 PM

Please show me the underlined words from my comment in your comment. The two statements are not identical.

You also make no comment at all about ellipses. You cannot count, too.

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#93
In reply to #92

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 5:14 PM

There are more then one meaning of the use of ellipses, but on the same lines

one is what you stated, the others...

depends on the context and placement in a sentence, and ellipses can indicate an unfinished thought, a leading statement, a slight pause, an echoing voice, or a nervous or awkward silence.

now, I’d didn’t ‘study’ SE posts where he uses the ellipses to where or what the real context is/was, I was only interested with the links he supplied.

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#94
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Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 9:51 PM

I use them in different ways, mostly because one period is too hard to see....whereas several are not...

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#95
In reply to #94

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 9:54 PM

I use it for a number of reasons also, where it was analyzed also,... and a report was sent back to me...

I don’t mind it,... as long as it’s helpful. But sometimes they use this... ��

Which is still fine, except they don’t move past it... drone on and on... with demands and the like...

And now the number is 7,... 8

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#15
In reply to #12

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/17/2020 12:02 AM

I don't agree, your characterization is misplaced in this instance...when the going gets tough, we Americans pull together....we've seen this time and time again....The attitude you're talking about comes when unjust laws are being imposed on the people...that's just not the case here...

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#17
In reply to #15

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/17/2020 8:35 AM

So who determines what is an unjust law? Legal laws are made by an organized process that is far from perfect but they are not capricious.

You're showing your jingoism goggles, again. They cancelled Chicago's dying of the river for St. Patty's day but despite a request for "distancing" and no large gatherings these Amerikans chose to do their own thing.

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#20
In reply to #17

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/17/2020 11:45 AM

They kept within the guidelines and took recommended precautions...

https://abc7chicago.com/6012483/

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#53
In reply to #17

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 1:38 PM

So who determines what is an unjust law? Legal laws are made by an organized process that is far from perfect but they are not capricious

no, and examples (unfortunately), not with the recent congressional impeachment protocols. Or the Origin of ObamaCare is the second.

Figurely speaking, You need to use a smaller brush.

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#24
In reply to #12

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 10:34 AM

But the pattern will remain, as in what was done to combat it.

the difference is, like you said the steps in an authoritarian State where there are no individual rights. I.e. the individuals are disposable.

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#10

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/16/2020 7:57 AM

The simulation however does not include the condition, that everyone will be given a injectable portion of the virus and synchronize the infection.

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#22
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Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 8:40 AM

That condition is not realistic, because it implies 100% availability and 100% consent, and doesn't take into account the delays in arriving at both of those points.

One can model anything mathematically. The challenge is making the model and reality fit each other, and that can only improve when a certain amount of reality has already taken place. By the time the model is 100% accurate, all the reality is in the past. That's what hindsight is all about.

That's why one ought not, as a matter of principle, to get too carried away by Gantt charts.

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#60
In reply to #22

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 5:57 AM

I seen from news that London was letting everyone be infected and get over the virus.

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#87
In reply to #60

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 1:00 PM

Totally bogus...nobody in a burning building is going to want to throw gasoline on the fire....

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#19

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/17/2020 9:00 AM

With increasing pressure for individuals to work from home, there has been an increase in firms selling home office makeovers, according to reports read.

Coronavirus has just become a product...

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#25

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 10:44 AM

They are taking away our money and the literal money.

I pitied the businesses and owners who loans capital from banks. Houses and cars too.

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#31
In reply to #25

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 5:35 PM
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#32
In reply to #31

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 5:39 PM

One wonders where this money is coming from.

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#34
In reply to #32

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 5:40 PM

conservatives have been asking that question for years...

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#37
In reply to #34

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 7:37 PM

Real conservatives, yes; but not the ones we have now.

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#38
In reply to #37

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 7:40 PM

Those are RINO’s, the real conservatives as you call them, took them in when democrats jumped the liberal ship back in the 80’s.

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#62
In reply to #32

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 6:04 AM

in Chemistry its just called "catalyst". You don't need much to boost the other mans income.

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#33
In reply to #31

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 5:39 PM

I wish it would have been a tax cut.

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#35
In reply to #33

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 7:18 PM

I believe there are some tax cuts included, and gasoline should be cheaper, many stimulus measures it seems...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-updates-senate-passes-paid-leave-relief-bill.html

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#36
In reply to #35

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/18/2020 7:25 PM

there are some that don’t won’t tax cuts,,, because they worked so hard, an getting the taxes raised. Before this CoronaVirus, it time to address this deficit. It’s a dam good thing the economy was built up prior to the crisis. This is more discussed on another thread, but as soon as this coronavirus is taken under control, stocks should rebound.

Anyways, In Northeast Wisconsin, Prices dropped to $1.79, dropped over $0.25 in the past week.

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#39
In reply to #36

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/19/2020 3:35 AM

Yes a good time to top off the strategic petroleum supply....Trump says, fill it to the top...price is right

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#40
In reply to #39

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/19/2020 4:27 AM

O Captain, my Captain of the obvious. Sheesh.

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#42
In reply to #33

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/19/2020 12:25 PM

Tax cuts do not have the stimulative effect conservatives want you to believe. Even the Governments own studies have shown that. Especially true now with a tax structure where almost all tax savings go to those whose spending is least likely to be impacted. Even Mnuchin realizes that won't work in this situation.

Companies do not hire or expand because they received tax cuts, they respond to the market for goods and services and you are not going to move that market by giving a billionaire another million. Or even by giving people like myself another thousand (I'm middle class but not what I consider wealthy).

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#43
In reply to #42

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/19/2020 1:42 PM

No it doesn’t, the shovel ready stimulus shows that in the past.

the content I was getting at, is a tax cut is more efficient than a government control rebate,... of what ever they call it. It’s not free money. and it’s idiotic to think your getting money from the government that was yours in the first place.

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#41

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/19/2020 11:48 AM

The models are very illuminating, but still a few (degrees-of-freedom) away from reality.

For simplicity, the dots could be assigned ages, and be multiples of 5 years (i.e.: 0, 5, 10, etc., up to 95, say).

Susceptibility could be could be a function of age, something like:

sc = ks(Age/60)^(1/3), as a percentage.

and, death rate could be something like: dc =kd (sc/20), as a percentage.

Then, the models could graph the rates of cummulative contagion, sickness duration, collective condition, and (expiration) rate in comparison with death rates for zero contagion.

Then, there would be a more meaningful picture and/or graph of the entire contagion process.

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#58

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 4:01 PM

You want charts? I'll give you charts! This link has a chart for the country and a chart for each state:

politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

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#59
In reply to #58

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/21/2020 4:16 PM

Interesting that only about 12% are positive of the tests being given....when you consider that one of the criteria for getting tested is running a fever....

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#61

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 6:02 AM

I think the virus is designed to knock off the weak ones while big pharma takes the haul of money from the people and the government.

Weapon of war, weapon of control and extortion.

Are they capable of bio-engineering a virus nowadays? I think they could.

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#63

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 12:54 PM

To understand why, it is instructive to simulate the spread of a fake diseas

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#64
In reply to #63

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 1:11 PM

You comment has value.

Why as a link to a product? This belongs in commercial.

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#74
In reply to #63

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 4:24 AM

just by having dna sequence data they can replicate similar ones. No question, they made this stuff for a higher purpose of control mostly money and then policy.

Virus can pass through airports at ease and are handy. Its perfect for a weapon- a trojan horse.

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#88
In reply to #74

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 1:06 PM

One does not fire random direction weapons at the enemy....less one shoots oneself in the buttock....

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#69

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 10:35 PM

Here a nice animation of the spread to give a good visual...

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#70
In reply to #69

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 10:52 PM

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#72
In reply to #70

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 11:00 PM

Can’t seem to get the Gif to work.

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#71

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/22/2020 10:53 PM
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#77

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 1:07 PM

New York is skewing the results, fully half of all the new cases are in NY, and about half the rest are in NJ....In fact half of all the cases are in NY...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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#78
In reply to #77

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 1:45 PM

Such compassion.

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#79
In reply to #78

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 2:32 PM

These appear to be facts

And fact don't care about feelings...

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#80
In reply to #77

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 2:33 PM

Your links appear to be broken

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#81
In reply to #80

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 2:51 PM

I worked for me.

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#82
In reply to #81

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/23/2020 3:02 PM

iPad it works, (computer still has Windows 7 )

and wow 73% mortality rate on closed cases...

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#83

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 11:22 AM

Its very interesting if this simulation also could run synchronization and verify the traces of Virus from China(ground zero) with respect to IRAN and ITALY.

It raised suspicion really, how IRAN got so many number of infection and ITALY. While China maintains open borders to almost all countries. INDIA is one big crowded country. Mumbai for example. How would India got incomparably low number of infected than IRAN?or Russia perhaps.

Makes you think, could be a weapon of war. Suspicious, isn't it?

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#84

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 12:04 PM

Considering what has already happened,... Don’t know if I should hold off on this and wait for it to be verified or not...

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

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#85
In reply to #84

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/26/2020 12:35 PM

Still just a hypothesis - as was his earlier prediction. I saw no mention of significant testing to prove that more people had been infected than previously thought.

When considering 'what if' scenarios to determine the next actions it is still best to go with the worst case.

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#96

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

03/27/2020 8:41 AM

If this virus is not man-made, at least I want to see a Gate, a Rockefeller, a Rothschild fatality even one or 2.

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#97

Re: Virus Spread Simulation

04/07/2020 11:28 AM

In the mean time, the U. S. is awash in serial peaks, that are generally, but not entirely, from East to West...

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''illigitimi non carborundum...''(i.e.: don't let the fatherless (self-deluding,sabotaging, long-term-memory-impaired, knee-jerking, cheap-shotting, mono-syllabic, self-annointed, shadow-lurking, back-biting, off-topic-inquisitors) grind you down...)
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