This morning, the Federal Reserve dumped another $2.3T of Emergency Funding. This is to be used to stabilize the economy, which sounds great. I did some checking and hidden in the "noise" is the plan to allow the Fed to buy junk bonds! Yes, it's true!!!
Junk bonds are bonds which are not investment grade - too risky, because the borrower is in such bad financial condition that they are considered too high a risk. Why are we using our tax money for this?
A little history. In the past few years, CEO pay has been linked to stock price performance. If the CEO raises the stock price, he gets a bigger bonus. Normally, this would mean that the CEO has to make the company more profitable - what he/she should do. Somehow, it was discovered that you can raise the price of a stock by removing shares from the open market. For instance, if there's 5,000,000 shares of stock on the open market and the price of the stock is $10/share, the company has a market cap of $50,000,000 (5,000,000 x $10). If the CEO buys back 500,000 shares at $10/share, he's taking $5,000,000 from cash and buying shares. Follow the math here. There are now 4,500,000 shares worth $10/share or $45,000,000 of stock on the market. So, he's now decreased the market cap of the company - not a good thing, or is it?
Prior to the buyback, we'll say the company makes $5,000,000 profit per year or dividing by 5,000,000 shares, the profit is $1 per share. The price to earning ratio is $10/$1 or 10. p/e should remain constant for a stock. So, now the buyback occurs and the company still is making $5,000,000, but there are only 4,500,00 shares, so the profit per share is $1.11. With a p/e of 10, we can solve for price. 10 * e = p or p = 11.10 = price per share. The shareholders now have an 11% profit for holding their shares. But there's more to it. Since the company seems to be 11% more profitable per share, the street gives it a higher multiple or p/e. Wow, this company increase per share income by 11%, so we can give it a p/e of 12 - earnings per share is growing fast! If we use a p/e of 12, then the stock is valued at $13.32/share. Stock holders love it - a profit of 33.2%! Everyone loves the CEO and he loves it, because he's just pulled in an extra $1M bonus!
Some of you are asking, how did he get the $5M cash to buy back the stock? When interest rates are low, he can do a bond issue. The company is in good shape, so their bonds are rated at AAA! The underwriter puts the bond issue at 2% for 10 years. For a AAA rated company, that's normal. The CEO knows that 2% of $5M is only $100K of interest, so he can borrow the money, then use it to buy back the stock. The board of directors applauds this, because they're big share holders and the higher stock price makes them excited and happy with the CEO.
Rinse and repeat. Buy back as much stock as you can. Do as many bond offerings as you can. The wall street guys love it, because they're the one's underwriting the bonds = $$$ commissions! Over and over and over. As you can imagine, the company has bought back stock at $10/sh, $13/sh, $18/sh, $26sh. And amassed $20M in debt. Then the bond guys look at the financials and say, WHOA! You have too much debt for the amount of sales you're doing, so we're going to drop you out of investment grade ... all the way down to BBB+. Not junk level yet, but not good. The stock is still at $26/share, but drops to $24/share with the drop in credit rating.
Then something bad happens like a recession or the stop of the economy. Revenue drops significantly and the bond rating agency drops the bond to BB - JUNK level. The stock drops to $10/share and everyone now hates the CEO. He cries that the company may go under and asks for bailout money from the government.
At this point, the company has 3,000,000 shares outstanding (bought back 500,000 x 4) and profits have dropped to $3,000,000, which gives a p/e of 10. The company now has $20,000,000 in debt from the bond sales ($5,000,000 x 4) or $400,000/year in interest at 2%. The street value of the bonds are now $20 for a $100 bond or $2 interest paid for a $20 bond = 10% rate.
If we bail them out, we're giving the CEO a high five for selling stock to raise his earnings per share, which in turn raises the share price and of course his bonus. The Fed will buy back the bonds at $20 until they push the bond price high enough so bond traders are paying a premium. Then the company can have another bond issue with a 3.3% rate - since this is what the Fed is artificially pricing higher. So a junk bond that should be earning 10% now only earns 3.3% - the buyer of the bond has a huge risk, but they're not getting paid for it. Indirectly, the Fed is telling the CEO that he did a good thing and they don't mind that he's put his company in debt. Personally, I don't like this, because the CEO needs to take responsibility for his greedy action. Yes, he got the stock price up, but at what cost?
Instead, I feel that the CEO should be forced to have the company sell stock. Sell the 2,000,000 shares that were bought back. If he only gets $6/share, so be it. At least the company now has $12M in cash to keep it afloat. And if the board is upset, they can replace the CEO for doing such a terrible job. And the shareholders can oust the board for doing such a terrible job. The ones in charge now take responsibility for their greedy actions.
In summary, I feel that CEO's should be forced to have the company sell the stocks they bought back, prior to receiving any relief from the government, including the purchase of the company's junk bonds. I'm so adamant about this, because our nation's debt was at $23T before the stimulus started.
What I also think would be much more fair is to help the working people in the country. If anyone has lost their full timejob or been put on furlough, give them $1,000 per week, which is equivalent to $52K/year as a grant for as long as they are furloughed or laid off - no reimbursement needed and no income taxes due, so it's really closer to $70K/year. That's only $780B if 30,000,000 people (that's 23% unemployment) get paid $1K/week for 1/2 year. If it lasts a full year, then the cost is $1.56T. You can even give the gig workers or part timers some money and it'll still be less than $5T.
So far, we've spent $5T on the bailout and we're not even close to done!
What do you guys think?
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