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Bobcat Fire

09/24/2020 2:32 AM

Well, I felt the need to post this, with the hope that someone can come up with a reasonable solution.

On a super hot Sunday, Sept 6th, a fire started in the mountains outside of Azusa, CA. It was crazy hot that day - temps in the 110's. There are investigations going on and it doesn't look good for SCE (electric company). Here are some facts about this fire.

1. It started on the south facing side of the San Gabriel Mountains.

2. The fire is still burning, though they feel it's under control and the fire breaks should contain it. The fire will burn itself out in a few days or so.

3. The fire split into two. One fire jumped Hwy 2 and headed off to Palmdale. The other circled back and threatened Mt Wilson.

4. The San Gabriel mountains are about 20 miles wide from Azusa to Palmdale. The fire made it to Palmdale.

5. Mt Wilson is 5700 feet high. The fire reached Wilson, but firefighters kept the facility from burning.

6. Smoke filled the LA basin for about 10 days. Air quality was around 150-180 and ran as high as 270 in the foothill, right beneath the fire.

7. Many people were evacuated. Homes on the Palmdale side burned.

8. This will be the 2nd largest wildfire in Los Angeles County.

If SCE is found to be the culprit, there will be lawsuits. A few years ago, when the town of Paradise was destroyed by a poorly maintained PGE power line, the company got away with much lower costs by filing bankruptcy and getting help from our governor. Somehow, PGE shareholders kept much of their equity while bondholders were forced to take some loss. The biggest issue is that the people who were harmed have to fight for the funds the state deemed as acceptable $13.5B, even though PGE estimated damages at $30B. 1/2 of the $13.5B is in company stock - yes, you heard that right. PGE is the largest utility company in CA.

As engineers, we are taught to find solutions to problems. The solution in this case may be a mix of scientific, design, planning, financial and even new technology. I'm at a loss, because I don't see a solution to our problem. Our poorly maintained power grid has been at fault for some huge fires and loss of both property and life. The cost to upgrade and maintain it ... well, the utility companies says they don't have enough. The state will have a $54B deficit in 2021 thanks to shutting down things to save lives from Covid. The corporations have run off with the money and the state coffers are empty. So, what's the solution?

As engineers, I'd like to hear what you have to say. Even if it's something like "move to another state". My roots are dug firmly here and I have about a decade to build a little more assets, then I plan to retire here. I kept a condo in Orange County as my retirement home and if all goes well, I'll be debt free in 10 years. And I'll have enough assets to retire well. The laws in this state are bordering on insane and with the recent fires, I'm not sure if this is the place to retire. That means all my plans go out the window and I have to change quickly.

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#120
In reply to #110
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Re: Bobcat Fire

10/01/2020 1:33 AM

"...but a utility company can pay..." Not really. In the end it is the utility company's customers and shareholders who pay.

I agree that the negligence in maintaining the machinery should make you liable, to some extent, for damage to the company using or storing the explosives, but if the damage goes on further, then the explosives company wasn't adequately protecting the explosives, and they should be liable for the further damage.

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#122
In reply to #120

Re: Bobcat Fire

10/01/2020 1:58 AM

Here's an article on PGE and how the bankruptcy judge was upset that the C-Suite was paid too much. Oops, I'm wrong; the article said that the judge rips them.

https://www.courthousenews.com/bankruptcy-judge-rips-pge-over-executive-bonuses/

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#128
In reply to #110
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Re: Bobcat Fire

10/01/2020 1:20 PM

If you fine the utility company, you are in essence punishing the people, because expenses are just passed along to the consumer...Utilities are regulated by the CPUC (California public utilities commission)

5 people that are overseeing the operations of all the utilities in California...and if you ask me their interests are a lot more liberal agenda based than should be the case...If anyone is to blame, it's them...

https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/

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#133
In reply to #128

Re: Bobcat Fire

10/06/2020 11:23 PM

The CPUC is an interesting group. They helped destroy the phone utilities, though technology changes and old school management were also to blame.

The strange thing is that the CPUC was suppose to be a watchdog for utility companies, not an organization to penalize them or to help competitors (which they did too many times).

I don't know much about the CPUC in the last 10 years or so. I was indirectly involved with the "regulations" they created to attack the phone utilities.

In the case of PGE, it was proven that the C-Suite made a choice to defer maintenance to save money. The choice was a bad one and too many people lost their homes and lives. If you make an honest mistake, that's one thing, but to consciously make a choice is a different matter.

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#72
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Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 4:42 AM

The CPUC regulates utility companies in CA.

AB 1054 (Assembly Bill) was signed into law in 2019. This is the law that allowed PGE to keep shareholder equity. I just read about it this evening. Disgusting! It should've been called the Bail out your friends Bill.

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#24

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/25/2020 2:15 PM

On the "silver lining" side, this year's fires are going to clear out fuel that decades of fire and land miss-management accumulated. I've heard some scientists refer to it as a potential for a reset.

Californians actually know what they need to do to mitigate the wildfire problems they have, the folks with the funds to do something about it just don't want to pay/sacrifice for it. It is not a short list and others have posted versions or parts of it here.

Executing any those actions becomes an intractable problem because as soon as the government tries to make (some) Americans do something they don't like it's an attack on rights and liberty and freedom or on the environment, then it's OK to lie, cheat, and take up arms against whatever it is they are asked to do. That inability to act problem is the first thing that needs fixing but I have no idea how to do that.

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#25

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/25/2020 4:53 PM

I don't want to live in CA for about four reasons: Too many wildland fires that lead to too many mudslides, too many earthquakes, and too many people. I'll stick to NE Ohio.

As for what to do, I don't want to get involved in the politics, but may have no choice when I suggest controlled burns, which was mentioned above several times. Also, don't feel compelled to extinguish every fire--let it become a controlled burn. Remember that the western states survived many centuries before people arrived.

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#35
In reply to #25

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/26/2020 1:03 PM

What I don't understand, is if they are in such a devastating drought, why is the underbrush so thick?

Now this looks like a drought....

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#74
In reply to #35

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 4:46 AM

We're no longer in a drought. We had a couple years of solid rains and the reservoirs are in good shape.

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#73
In reply to #25

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 4:44 AM

Yes, controlled burns to build natural fire breaks - just in case a fire starts! I think that's a great starting point.

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#29

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/26/2020 4:23 AM

On the bright side:This same area will not burn again for a while,so it will be safe to rebuild and hope it never happens again.See how simple that is?

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#32
In reply to #29

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/26/2020 8:28 AM

Yeah, right. I see you've never weeded a garden.

<I really wish there was a standardized sarcasm symbol. It would certainly reduce the apparent disagreements.>

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#34
In reply to #32

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/26/2020 11:25 AM

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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#37
In reply to #32

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/27/2020 5:22 AM

Here is a symbol for sarcasm.Wish I had found it sooner...The Interrobang.

https://www.theodysseyonline.com/punctuation-youll-want

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#42
In reply to #37

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/27/2020 9:25 AM

The interrobang is for is for exclamatory, rhetorical questions. (Merriam Webster includes it in their dictionary.) The irony mark appears to be this.

To my surprise these exotic punctuation marks have been desired for so long that many fonts include them. Now I have to see how to execute them.

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#43
In reply to #42

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/27/2020 9:47 AM

You're right.

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#88
In reply to #42

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 10:27 AM

Alt plus (num pad)168 gives ¿

And there are quite a lot of ALT + number symbols:-

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#97
In reply to #88

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 3:47 PM

Nope still don't see it...

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#38
In reply to #32

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/27/2020 5:24 AM

IF I had known about the Interrobang symbol,I would have used it in my post #29.

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#31

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/26/2020 4:30 AM

"As I said Vir,intelligence has nothing to do with politics." Babylon 5.

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#56
In reply to #31

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/28/2020 5:01 PM

"What are those earth creatures? Feathers, Webbed feet, Go Quack?

"Cats!"

"Yes! Cats! It's like being nibbled to death by cats!"

Good Times!

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#39

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/27/2020 5:34 AM

The hot dry air from the desert is compressed as it comes down the mountains,compressing it and increasing the temperature even more.

This primes a tinderbox for a fire and the least thing can start it, and it will spread rapidly,creating it's own wind.

A careless cigarette butt tossed out the window,a charcoal grill ember,even 2 rocks colliding.( Maybe even an hormone-intoxicated cricket rubbing his feet together too rapidly?)

Charcoal grilling is banned in some states during drought conditions,but maybe everyone doesn't get the message;tourists,etc.

Last I heard,this fire was started by a gender-reveal party,but who knows?

How can they tell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QNV27C-8_I

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#76
In reply to #39

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 4:58 AM

The Gender Reveal Party caused the El Dorado Fire.

The Bobcat Fire was caused by SCE equipment.

The Ranch 2 Fire was caused by arson - a homeless man burned his adversary's belonging, which started the fire.

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#40

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/27/2020 5:53 AM

I can see a flurry of lawsuits springing from this fire.

The law firms are drooling all over their wingtips.

Did the gender reveal devices have warnings printed in large multi-lingual languages;How about sign languages and Braille

I don't think the fire was deliberately started,but was a result of group ignorance of the consequences of their actions.

I feel sorry for all of the parties involved in this terrible tragedy.

Education is expensive,but ignorance,even more so.

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#77
In reply to #40

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 5:00 AM

The Gender Reveal Party lit fireworks, which caused the fire. When you live in CA, you're fully aware of the dangers of lighting fireworks. In fact, it's illegal in most parts of the LA Basin.

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#41

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/27/2020 6:56 AM

We had our share of fires down here this year. Sympathies to all involved.

While there might be some concern over what was the ignition source, the reality is that these fires would have propagated regardless of the ignition source. If it wasn't the power company, it could have been from a grain harvester, grass caught underneath a pickup on the exhaust, some farmer using a grinder, a cigarette but, lightning or whatever.

We in Australia have recently become focused on blaming someone and abdicating our own responsibility to manage our own space and resources AND at the same time neglecting to take adequate insurance. This becomes a rabbit hole of desperation. Built near the bush, house burnt down, uninsured, who can I get compensation from since I don't have any other recourse. (Fortunately not my situation) Take out insurance and let those buzzards chase others for the compensation.

There are multiple problems. For me to hazard burn (responsibly) I would need over $200k of personal resources to control my own burn-off before I would be issued a permit. The local Rural Fire Service (RFS) volunteers are unable to assist these actions or to lend their equipment for me to do a burn. I now have in some spaces 20 years of accumulated windfall branches and leaves in some places.

Fortunately, following fires a few years ago, property owners were permitted something like 20:40 clearing for home protection. That is we can clear all shrubs from within 20m of the house and buildings and trees from within 40 meters with no need for council approval in order to attain some level of fire protection.

Also, rural buildings now have code considerations for flammability (bushfire resistance) and will not be approved dependant upon achieved score AND consideration of the surrounding bushland. If you have flat grassland, then the expectation is different than if you are uphill from a stand of native forest and the prevailing wind from that direction.

Controlled burning is a partial answer as it reduces the absolute intensity, but in 2008 I witness fires that skipped across ploughed paddocks in 300m steps and made the 1km cover in around 45 seconds. While it would not have been possible to light a fire, the embers were able to find and propagate on the minute portions of grass that formed in small eddies on the ground surface and then lift and settle in the next eddy.

Near where I am now, there is remnant of a fire from 2015 that is over 150km long. It scares me that all the trees that died in that fire are still standing as dead/dry sticks waiting for the next fire. I estimate the dead fuel load in most of that to be around a quarter ton per square yard. Many of those trees are Cyprus pine, an oily timber that doesn't rot while standing and impervious to termites. They will stand for another 20 years or so.

We need to understand that the goal is to manage fire. To think that we can eliminate or always control fire is folly.

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#78
In reply to #41

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 5:10 AM

Fire management - that's a great point.

Here in CA, our firefighters have a plan which is based on previous success and failure. When I first moved here, they did controlled burns, but I rarely hear or see them.

The terrain is so much different around CA. I live about a mile or so from the base of the mountain - where the houses stop. The mountain goes up pretty steeply and continues all the way to the top at around 7,000 feet. The mountains are so steep that a 7 3/4 mile hike with plenty of switchbacks rises about a mile! So from my house, I head on a slight uphill. Then the mountain rises much faster until the top is reached.

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#86
In reply to #78

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 8:21 AM

Interesting, I was over on the coast this weekend for a party. My son arrived and informed us that the neighbour's "gazebo" was smoking. So we went to investigate, around a mile away by road.

Yes, it was burning, with embers skipping up to 30' away. Another neighbour also there but the owner was away. long story short, it seems that the wind had damaged a power cord going to the gazebo, shorted enough to light it and burn through. ELCB tripped cutting power to water pump. I managed to trace the power back and reset breaker so we had water and got the fire under control.

Fire brigade arrived around 45mins after call. Unattended station is around 15km away, so to assemble a crew and get to site in that time was well done. If we three hadn't been there, I expect it would have been 15acres when they arrived and into some 6' high grass and then heavy woodland to the East.

Went back to party feeling good and smelling smoky. I was cooking pizza in an outdoor woodfired oven anyhow so didn't notice the smoke smell.

We had over 2" of rain in the week before this, but a single windy day made it dry enough for a fire to "run".

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#101
In reply to #86

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 5:03 PM

Wow, that's a close call! Good that it didn't start a wildfire!

Many years ago, there was a pretty large fire in Malibu. The fire was inland from Pepperdine College - if you're ever out here, you have to check out the campus - I don't know how they get any studying done! Burning embers flew about 1/4 - 1/2 mile and went into the attic via vent holes in the eaves. The house was about a block from the ocean and it caught fire - luckily it didn't spread.

Burning embers! Very dangerous.

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#49

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/28/2020 10:10 AM

If you eliminate the dead weight on the companies financials it isn't that hard. But, when your focus is paying big salaries, bonuses, compensation packages golden parachutes dividends etc, the profitability disappears. (mind you a public utility should not be "for Profit")

Unlike wire, poles, safety equipment, etc, the above listed expenses do nothing to increase the company's ability to provide safe reliable service and are often detrimental to such a practice because they have long since left the realm of realistic.

Because little Tommy doesnt need to live in a safe place to live. Buying my third Laguna Beach house is far more important. Cant let the COO of PGE make more money than me.

Ya'll really need to read 'The Smartest Men in the Room."

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#50

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/28/2020 2:00 PM

Not much to be done to prevent arson, but many electric utilities are mitigating wildfire as best they can using weather monitoring and other techniques. Check out: https://www.bvesinc.com/safety/wildfire-mitigation-plan

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#58

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/28/2020 5:10 PM

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#83
In reply to #58

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/30/2020 5:32 AM

This is a really bad one. It's growing much too fast. And remember that Napa burned a couple years ago. The fuel shouldn't be there, but it is.

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#59

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/28/2020 5:38 PM

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#60

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/29/2020 6:20 PM

I just heard on NPR that the Glass fire is the fourth fire in three years in that region. How then can a prescribed, controlled burn possibly remove enough fuel to break this cycle of fires when an uncontrolled burn doesn't remove enough fuel in this region?

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#61
In reply to #60

Re: Bobcat Fire

09/29/2020 6:30 PM

(4) fires.... I don’t know what that region is composed of,... maybe it’s tinder grasses...

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#137

Re: Bobcat Fire

11/14/2021 1:17 PM

Interested in how to access the Interrobang (symbol for sarcasm).

https://qwerty.dev/interrobang/

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