What is New Science?

A general question to anyone who would like to answer. Please keep politics out as much as possible. This is a science based question.

What would be your response to something like this: New Science! The scientific community has announced a major breakthrough. Since cars emit carbon dioxide and there are more cars on the road in 2021 vs any other time in the history of man, then humans are the cause of global warming. This is official and the entire world will accept this as fact.

You said, "This is a science based question." Too bad that you haven't gotten any "science based" answers.

Just the same group of Trump lovers doing what they always do. Spread rumors and make outrageous comments, devoid of facts.

I asked to keep politics out of it. I wish you could answer without using politics.

Also, you didn't answer the question. Are you willing to give it a try?

I read some posts from a closed thread, but I couldn't respond. Then I remembered this thread and the NEW SCIENCE thing - that's a perfect place to post this.

Someone made a statement that the gov't had flip-flopped again, regarding the "you're safe if you're vaccinated" claim. Now they're saying that vaccinated people can not only get sick from Covid, but they can be spreaders as well. The NEW SCIENCE behind our vaccine. I don't buy it. Why? We knew that the vaccines were 95% (ish) effective, so 5% would get sick. This was found thru clinical trials (I know someone who participated in one). So, 1 in 20 will get sick. The companies doing the clinical trials knew how sick the 1/20 would get and what symptoms they had and if they were contagious. It's the data they collected. They are trying to have us believe that they didn't know those 1/20 would be spreaders? If one of the 1/20 were in a room with 20 vaccinated people, then 1/20 or one person on average would get sick. So on August 13, 2021, we now have another 187,141 new cases of Covid. Exactly one year ago, we had 54,061. In fact, the worst day, we had 300,777 new cases.

Based on any form of science, this isn't working. It's summer and we're outside much of the time and with 51.1% of the population vaccinated, we shouldn't see these huge numbers. Comparing apples to apples, with that much of our population vaccinated, we should have much fewer new cases.

In terms of NEW SCIENCE, "they" justify this, but I don't agree.

<Sigh>

Epidemiology is complicated. Diseases mutate. This disease has mutated to be more virulent.

You should have noticed the phrase "pandemic of the unvaccinated." Just under half of the population is unvaccinated but the delta variant is more virulent. Herd immunity level is expected to be at least 80%. Recovered COVID patients do not exhibit antibody levels even close to those who are vaccinated. People are also tired of social isolation and masking.

I hope this latest outbreak spike will convince vaccine reluctant people to get the vaccine.

It's a little hard to understand how an injection that may only cause mild symptoms can create more antibodies than when the body has to fight off a full-blown infection.

The CDC had this to say,

"According to the CDC, vaccination is a safe and effective way to teach your body to create antibodies.

“COVID-19 vaccines teach your body to produce antibodies to fight infection from the virus that causes COVID-19. If you get an antibody test after receiving a vaccine, you might test positive by some (but not all) antibody tests. This depends on which type of antibody the specific test detects,” said the CDC.

However, the CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) say antibody tests should not be used to evaluate a person’s level of immunity or protection from COVID-19 until more research is done.

“Antibody testing is not currently recommended to determine if you are immune to COVID-19 following COVID-19 vaccination,” said the CDC. “Antibody testing should also not be used to decide if someone needs to be vaccinated.”

According to the FDA, if antibody test results are interpreted incorrectly, there is a potential risk that people may take fewer precautions against COVID-19 exposure, which can increase their risk of infection and may result in the increased spread of the virus."

There are numerous recent reports stating that the vaccine creates more antibodies and hence better protection against this virus. I'm a little suspicious of the timing of this news revelation. My wife contracted COVID in Las Vegas at the Consumer Electronics Show in January 2020. Eighteen months later an antibody test still showed she had the antibodies from the infection and her doctor told her that this particular antibody test was designed to "ignore" the antibodies created by the vaccine which she has taken. I believe that the vaccines are appropriate and prudent for the majority of the people, but I also believe that should be that person's choice.

I had a similar discussion with a friend in the medical field. Some of the conversation went over my head, but I got the gist of the message. She said that our bodies fight off unwanted invaders by boosting our immune response. In so many words, the immune system springs to life and locates the culprit, stores information about it and sets the body in motion to expel the unwanted invader. Hopefully, if the immune system is strong enough, it'll be able to get rid of the invader.

After the body has rid itself of the invader, it leaves behind information on the invader, so if it comes back, the body knows how to fight it off. Over time, the body has new invaders to fight off and it loses the information from the original invader.

In general terms, it makes sense and follow what I remember from Biology (for me, over 30 years ago).

Logically, one would think that an antibody test would be a good way to determine if the person has protection against the virus. If so, I find it strange that we have not and still don't have a big push for antibody testing. Maybe I'm missing something?

How I understand it, a Vaccine is only a temporary fix. In the case of COVID-19, 3-6 months. And then a booster is needed. the. You have the delta variant, and now the lambda variants… soon will got through the whole Greek alphabet variants.
I have felt that a natural developed immunity to fight these pathogens was best.

but this is a good read for the pros and cons between Natural Immunity vs. Vaccine-Acquired Immunity on each has its merits.

That's a good article to explain the difference between Natural and Vaccine Acquired Immunity.

Thanks for sharing!

259,493 new Covid cases in the US on Aug 16th. There have been only four other days with numbers that high, since Covid hit our shores. With so many of us vaccinated, it shouldn't be this high.

I notice that Florida is having a tough time with Covid. Here in CA, we're showing signs of a problem. East coast looks pretty good.

Vacation spots are CA and FL, so that could be part of the problem? The vaccination rate in FL is pretty close to CA.

Anyone have an insight into the data?

I heard on the radio the delta variant is ten times more virulent but I cannot locate a website to confirm. The CDC only states the nebulous "...more than 2X as contagious..." With slightly over half of the population vaccinated a return to similar disease levels should be expected.

This study says that vaccinated people who get sick have as much viral load as unvaccinated. And that herd immunity is unlikely. What? Herd immunity was our goal and it's now unlikely. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/19/jabbed-adults-infected-with-delta-can-match-virus-levels-of-unvaccinated

Time will tell...

I'm wondering about something. Since we're nearing the cooler season (two months away), I hope we don't get another spike in Covid. More of us will be indoors, kids will be in school and with the Delta variant being so infectious, are we in for another spike in Covid cases?

Also, with many more people getting vaccinated, I'm thinking it should help keep the hospitals from being over run like last year. If so, then we shouldn't have to shut down part of the economy like last year.

I expect we will be seeing a spike in COVID-19 positive cases this winter. Two key factors lead me to this belief.

First, this disease is already known for making asymptomatic carriers capable of distributing this disease to others. Second, like most efficacy testing for vaccines, the vaccines for COVID-19 have been tested against fatalities, the severity of symptoms but not transmissibility. Thus, I worry these vaccines may just be increasing the percentage of asymptomatic carriers.

Hospitalizations and severe illnesses should reduce with greater vaccination levels but there is an additional implication nobody has been discussing. Herd immunity may not be possible with this disease.

I have noticed generally speaking that those breakthrough cases are not nearly as severe as unvaccinated cases and the death rate of infections as a percentage have dropped considerably...now around 0.6%...so as people start to realize that not getting vaccinated was a mistake, I believe the rate of vaccinations will continue to increase...add to that full FDA approvals starting to trickle in, and our major problem seems to be in countries that lag in vaccination rates...which we do seem to be addressing...We are now starting monoclonal antibody therapy here in Florida to lesson the severity of the infections...

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/treatment/new-treatments/

My better half had cancer in 2002 - Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma. Her oncologist put her on a two year chemo treatment (after she was done with the big, bad chemo to kill the cancer). He had her take Rituxin, a monoclonal antibody. I remember being told that it needs to be in the body at all times in the two year period (most likely time to relapse). It targets certain cells, while not bothering the others. Unlike her CHOP treatment, which pretty much destroyed everything it came into contact with.

I was impressed with the results and she's still cancer free!

Regeneron! That's what they gave our last POTUS when he got sick. I knew I heard of it before.

I'm glad they're doing this. If it can help reduce the death rate and keep people out of the hospital, then it's a good thing! Make that an excellent thing!

I just read an article that's very disappointing. Maybe I'm getting stuck on the choice of words or what they mean - I don't know. Or maybe there's a much bigger problem. Here's an article I just read - it doesn't sound good. https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/troubling-cdc-vaccine-data-convinced-132851003.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_11

Here's what I'm seeing.

1. The vaccine companies started Phase 1 testing of the vaccine in early 2020. Phase 2 soon followed. That's a lot of time from then 'til now.

2. Thousands and thousands were tested in Phase 3 trials. Plenty of data.

3. We were told that the vaccines in the US protect against Delta. https://www.jnj.com/positive-new-data-for-johnson-johnson-single-shot-covid-19-vaccine-on-activity-against-delta-variant-and-long-lasting-durability-of-response

4. This study tells us that we had it wrong again. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/19/jabbed-adults-infected-with-delta-can-match-virus-levels-of-unvaccinated

Plenty of time, plenty of data, completed research on Delta, our approach is wrong again; more "New Science".

I don't know how you feel, but I'm getting tired of this yo-yo ing!!!!

I read the article, am not surprised, says "drop in vaccine efficacy over time," as expected from these vaccines and many other reactions, including my own mobility, vision, hearing and strength.

This annoys the people who want it all or none, right or wrong. If someone says it doesn't work all the time, they think "it doesn't work." If someone revises their opinion based on knowledge, they are called flip-flop. I can see the need for doubt of everything, but it's quantitative.

I have lemons picked 10 days ago sitting out in the heat and now covered with mold, so I doubt their safety. But if I pick a lemon from the tree and see something on it, I'll wash it off and eat it. Nothing is sure, but some things are surer than others. (Meyer lemon peel is often edible as it's low-acid, but that makes mold growth easier.)

Doubt has quantity, and judgement needs reliable bases/knowledge. With the lemons, I didn't need data. In some cases I would. I can't expect certainty so I need probability. But I can't just believe what I want to be true nor disbelieve what I don't like. Engineers are applied (practical real-world) scientists, so I think you'll agree.

I realize that I'm probably expecting too much from our experts. You see, I was taught to:

1. Expect professionals to give expert advice.

2. Expect professionals to ONLY change their advice based on something like a breakthrough.

3. Expect professionals to keep their mouths shut until they understand what is happening.

4. Expect professionals to give advice on a solution, only when they've gone through all the possible scenarios known at the time.

5. Expect professionals to act like professionals.

In my business, I will no longer be in business if for years I tell my clients that a Land Rover is very reliable. I then get them hundreds of Land Rovers. Then, as every one of them fails, I flip flop and tell them that the NEW SCIENCE is that Land Rovers are not reliable. What will my client think when they're stuck with a broken down car, years of car payments left and they're underwater financially?

Or we can use the example of an investment banker. If my investment banker told me to buy Chinese Tech Stocks at the beginning of the year, so I loaded up on KWEB (safe, because it's an ETF). Now I'm down 40%, when the S&P is up 19% for the year. I then call my banker and he tells me - oh, our NEW ANALYSIS shows that Chinese Tech Stocks are not a good investment, because you don't own any equity in the business and the Chinese Government doesn't like foreigners to own any Chinese Tech company. He's suppose to be an expert, but his flip flopping caused me to underperform the market by 50%! I don't think he'll replace the lost income, so I'm the one who loses.

I've heard others say that it's not that easy. I disagree. The stock market isn't easy to read, but the real pros get it right. I expect this from our virus experts. And yes, I've heard people tell me that this is a NOVEL Virus, to which I reply, yes it is, but we did know quite a bit about viruses in general (the flu is caused by a virus, no?) and we've seen Covid viruses also.

Using your analogy, you know that certain lemons have lower acidity, so you worry about their lifespan. But what if you told me that the lemon you left in the heat caused mold (I can guarantee it's the first time you saw mold on that individual lemon) and since it's new to you (the specific lemon), you claim that any mistake you make in your analysis can be linked to it being a NOVEL mold. So you get away scot free, even if you give bad advice.

I see engineers as very logical people. We use our experiences to form theories about future events. You with your lemons and mold, me with autos and we should hope that virus experts with viruses. A virus expert should know that a virus will mutate and the mutation can cause more illness in the population, sometimes even higher rates of infection vs the original. A virus expert should also know that a vaccine mimics the actual virus and causes the host to build immunities, however over time, the immunities diminish. We were told this - I remember hearing last year that people who got sick early in the year have no antibodies left. But when the vaccines came out, somehow this important piece of information was left out. There are many other examples, but I don't think I'll get anywhere trying to convince other and vice versa, since our minds are made up.

So, let's just agree to disagree. Unless you can come up with something that will change my mind. Or, if you'd like, you can get the last word in - I have no trouble with that. Sorry to run on so long, but I am very upset with our virus professional.