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Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/19/2008 7:35 PM

I wondered what these people know that Al Gore doesn't?



Viscount Monckton gives a presentation during the 2007 Conference on Climate Change

"Considerable presence" of skeptics

The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming. The APS is also sponsoring public debate on the validity of global warming science. The leadership of the society had previously called the evidence for global warming "incontrovertible."

In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,"There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution."

The APS is opening its debate with the publication of a paper by Lord Monckton of Brenchley, which concludes that climate sensitivity -- the rate of temperature change a given amount of greenhouse gas will cause -- has been grossly overstated by IPCC modeling. A low sensitivity implies additional atmospheric CO2 will have little effect on global climate.

Larry Gould, Professor of Physics at the University of Hartford and Chairman of the New England Section of the APS, called Monckton's paper an "expose of the IPCC that details numerous exaggerations and "extensive errors"

In an email to DailyTech, Monckton says, "I was dismayed to discover that the IPCC's 2001 and 2007 reports did not devote chapters to the central 'climate sensitivity' question, and did not explain in proper, systematic detail the methods by which they evaluated it. When I began to investigate, it seemed that the IPCC was deliberately concealing and obscuring its method."

According to Monckton, there is substantial support for his results, "in the peer-reviewed literature, most articles on climate sensitivity conclude, as I have done, that climate sensitivity must be harmlessly low."

Monckton, who was the science advisor to Britain's Thatcher administration, says natural variability is the cause of most of the Earth's recent warming. "In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."

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#1

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/19/2008 7:49 PM

I don't mean to be confrontational, but this is simply not true. Some members of the APS have disagreed with the majority report and have begun a blog. APS has acknowledged that opinion. It's OK to have differing opinions, but I think some of the talk radio folks may have led you astray.

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#3
In reply to #1

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/19/2008 9:58 PM

TVP 45, the fact that a minority disagrees from the majority is exactly how Science works. More power to all.\sides to expose the truth.

What I find interesting is that a majority of "scholars" in this report found objections to and credibility issues with methods and models that have been so widely cited and basis for policy changes.

That so many scholars have issues with what has been claimed to be "the way it just is" has to be a serious issue for those who hold anthropogenic warming as "Settled Science."

(As far as settled Science goes, the quantum physics boys still can't tell me if the wave theory proponents or the corpuscularists on theory of light won.)

The simultaneous warming of other planets, making solar output a prime suspect is very compelling- its a direct effect, and we have comparisons/control subjects.

milo

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#5
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Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/20/2008 2:35 AM

Your absolutely right. No excuses-but, I sometimes get weary of all the disorder this subject creates. I have worked in so many industries that have been sued out of existence, or have had protest outside of our buildings, that it is nice when I see some rational heads, even if they are its just a small percentage of a large group.

I wasn't able to determine the percentage of APS members that have issues with the majority report. Even 2 or 3 % would be a large group. I would hope the percentage would be more than 10%.

I also don't know the percentage of scientist that sued to get their name off the IPCC report. I think those that sued, were being honest.

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#7
In reply to #5

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/20/2008 6:02 AM

Thanks for the reply. I have little doubt that data indicate global warming but I believe the jury is out on whether this is a short-term cycle, a long-term cycle, man-made, or just something we don't know about yet. My gut feeling is that your percentages are in the ball-park.

Are you also a member of Sigma Xi? The same debate goes on there, save without as much acrimony.

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#2

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/19/2008 7:53 PM

The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming.

, wow.........

Would that be enough to claim consensus in the scientific community?

Is, that unanimous, heck I find it hard to get (2) engineers to agree on where to eat.

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#4

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/20/2008 1:27 AM

Monckton, who was the science advisor to Britain's Thatcher administration, says natural variability is the cause of most of the Earth's recent warming. "In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years ... Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth."

This is thought provoking, the earth is warmed by the sun, wow!

That the sun has not had flares or we have not benefited from the effects of sun spots this year is I suppose unsettling too.

I wondered what these people know that Al Gore doesn't?

I think I think it is that the American Physical Society is not focused upon the economic effect as is Al Gore of his economics.

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#6

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/20/2008 2:59 AM

It seems that Global weather change issues became a dividing factor instead of the the combining drive it clearly was intended to be.

My plea is "Let us put down the fiddles because the globe is burning.

Why not redirect the attack to fighting pollution? I don't think any responsible / mad / whatever scientist can claim any sustainable good effect of pollution.

Our main combined problems are:

1) The protected (nature) is also polluting.

2) The number of people rose above our capabilities.

3) The concerns footing the Bili may now be on the loosing side.

4) Funds.

5) Etc. Etc.

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#8

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/21/2008 9:08 PM

This reminds me of the paranoia that seems to follow the "hole in the ozone layer" over the anatartic.

That's all gone quiet in the media for the last few years as the "hole" is closing up again per the cycle that has been mapped since the before 1940. They'll start crying "polution" again in around two years time when the next cyclic opening happens.

On the issue of global warming (or not), we, as the current generation and tennants of this world owe it to future generations to move to a sustainable existence. (Not talking subsistence)

Every civilization that has "lived beyond its means" has fallen and we seem to be going down a similar path. (And every one of those civilizations also had oppressed individuals and groups.) It's like a global game of scissors/paper/rock where you only "win" until the next round.

By the way, here's a couple of questions.

"What's the inertia of 50,000 physicists?"

How long will it take for their efforts to reverse the momentum this (mankind induced global warming) phenomenon has?

When will we all focus on what's important?

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#9
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Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/22/2008 1:33 AM

Does inertia exist during a mental recession?

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#10

Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/30/2008 12:34 AM

All--Please take the time to read Roy Spencer's "Climate Confusion",(climatologist for NASA) as well as "Global Warning---Every 1500 Years" both well written, and full of wonderful FACTS! (imagine- facts!) Spencer is more opinionated, but they are well thought out, and, I feel expose the political bents in the global warming question---both available on Amazon, used for under $10---donate it to your global conspiracist upon completion--- C-mac

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#11
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Re: Global Warming Speed Bump. 50,000 Physicists Could be wrong?

07/30/2008 5:57 AM

I have no problem acknowledging that the anti-climate change position has credible spokesmen (Dr. Spencer was a distinguished climatologist at NASA) and that there are some facts that do support their point. I do take issue with his position that, while we sort out the debate, any sort of "insurance" actions are harmful.

BTW, I am not a conspiracist; I merely live in a city where we have seen first-hand the godawful effects of high concentrations of pollution. Even if global warming were to be a complete bust, the world will be better off with less exhaust, fewer particulates, etc.

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