I was wondering how 'sustainable' the solution of Lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles are.
Having learnt that there is about 35 million tonnes of exploitable Lithiumcarbonate in the world and if we take 18,8 masspercent for Lithium that means there is about 6,5 million tonnes of pure Lithium available. I wondered how many cars can be equipped with Lithium-ion batteries if we decide to give them a "full-electric range" of 150 km.
I supposed this would require a 250 kg battery that contains about 100 kg of "pure" Lithium (please correct me if I'm wrong on this ratio). Numbers on availability can vary a bit so let's take 10 million tonnes of available Lithium to do the calculations. In that case we could equip about 100 million cars which is between one and one and a half years of the world's production. Is it thus a realistic option for the future?
Does anyone have a precise information about how much pure Lithium there is in Lithium-in batteries? (mass percentage and mass per kWh)
The report that you can download onhttp://www.meridian-int-res.com/Projects/Lithium_Problem_2.pdf was a good information for me for the estimates on Lithium availability in the coming years.
The report says: There are currently nearly 1 billion motor vehicles in the World. To equip them all with a small 5kWh PHEV battery would consume at least 20% of the world's existing Lithium metal salt reserves using LiIon batteries; 12% of the world's Nickel reserves with NaNiCl batteries; and 3% of the world's Zinc reserves with ZnAir batteries.
And further it says : To equip the World Automobile Parc with a 10kWh LiIon battery would consume over 35% of the World's Producible Lithium Carbonate Reserves
It also says : With a more realistic projection of at least an average 10kWh battery per vehicle, 36% of the world's recoverable Lithium Carbonate Reserves would be consumed. 10KWh is still a small battery – even if 20kWh was achieved with the same Lithium utilisation, Lithium consumption will be at unsustainable levels.
I believe we should not think about PHEV but should think of Full electric vehicles if we put ourselves in the position of independence of fossil fuel. (Let's hope algae fuel take off, though) so 5 kWh is not my target...
Then, I wonder if the production rate of Lithium is the limiting factor (evaporation)? Aren't there really any other sources?
This brings us to the next question:
Can we expect a price drop of Lithium because of production increase or should we expect price increases of Lithium because of increasing demand for Lithium-ion batteries for vehicles combined with limited production/availability? That would be a shock to many electric vehicle engineers!!
There are analogies in the past, for example for Indium that went from $97.00 per kilogram in 2002 to $855.00 per kilogram in 2006 because of the increase of demand, mainly due to the application in LCD screens.
An important lesson for engineers is to think of availability of raw materials when developing new technologies that everyone will "need". Are we finally becoming aware of the impact of human overpopulation of the world on engineering?
What are the alternatives for electric energy storage in vehicles? Zebra, Zinc-air, Carbon Nanotubes?
How should we 'as engineeers' consider announcements from car manufacturers on new Li-ion battery electric vehicles? As a short term media stunt, as ignorance about (near) future Lithium availability, or as misleading distraction that cleans up brand image?
I would be happy to read your thoughts on this subject.
Best regards,
Randolph Toom
Good Answers:
"Almost" Good Answers: