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Deflation or Devaluation

11/18/2008 10:20 PM

hello everyone. i am not looking to rehash the whys of why we are in our present financial mess. i am also not really looking for others opinions of how bad it could get, my own opinions are gloomy enough as it is. i am also not interested in the blame game.

what i really want to know is your opinion on if we are going to have long term delation as in the great depression, where everything got cheap, but nobody had any money. or long term devaluation. from my reading, we owe about 13 trillion dollars, divided up between about 2 trillion in bonds to foreign central banks, and the rest in borrowing from foreigners by our government and banks. if the euro became the currency of choice and our debt was sold to buy euros, would the collapse of the dollar cause runaway inflation fpr the dollar? is this likely to happen?

is it possible that we could start with massive deflation, and then suddenly have run away inflation?

i understand that most of you folks are not financial people, but you have brains. what do you think?

i would be interested in what you think we can do to protect ourselves now. should we bury dollars, or buy gold, or both? i myself already have a place where i can grow food and raise animals. it is mortgage free. it is off grid and remote.

thanks

joe

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#1

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/18/2008 10:24 PM

"Is it possible that we could start with massive deflation, and then suddenly have run away inflation?"

Unfortunately, yes. Economic stimulus packages cost money, and that money has to come from somewhere. Just take Zimbabwe as an example: by freely printing money to make up for financial shortfalls and poor economic growth, the country now has runaway hyperinflation. And that, in turn, has made its currency all but worthless. On the other hand, anyone who wants to be an instant millionaire can just visit the country for a couple of days. A couple of thousand USD will be worth a few million Zimbabwe money.

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#29
In reply to #1

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 1:53 PM

I agree and that is unfortunately what we are planning to do in the USA.

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#2

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/19/2008 4:11 AM

Hello artbyjoe

To understand why the present situation is occurring, you should understand that the only real money is Gold, Silver and Copper Coins.

Because the US as with most other Countries has not coined real money for many years, the "Legal Tender" which is printed by the Federal Reserve Bank (US Central Bank) is actually worthless.

The problem with Gold and Silver Coins is that you cannot actually eat them.

DVD of the above is obtainable here: http://www.themoneymasters.com/

Other Videos are at the right on the above Video page, and it would be prudent to watch them.

We need basics in the following order:

  1. Air
  2. Food
  3. Shelter

Regardless of the remoteness of your place, if a hungry horde arrives looking for food, what will you do:

  1. Welcome them in to share what you have?
  2. Shoot them, or threaten to do so?
  3. Send them on their way, still hungry?
  4. Other - ??

As I see the present situation, it is not going to improve in the immediate future, because the International Bankers are withdrawing the amount of "Legal tender" = worthless paper in circulation, as has been done many times before.

In other Locations the "Legal Tender" = Worthless paper is being printed to cause hyper-inflation.

As I've said above, "Legal Tender" is easily manipulated for personal gain by International Bankers and associated individuals.

All Central Banks, including the US Federal Reserve, are totally privately owned.

The UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT is, like so many so-called Governments, a Bankrupt Private Corporation.

Kind Regards....

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#10
In reply to #2

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 1:09 AM

The trouble with this thinking is that it ignores the most basic currency of all - work.

Work is the basis of everything. After a certain amount of work is performed, you have a result. You may have an electrical outlet installed, or a light fixture and a switch, where there was none, before. You also might have a house built, or a hotel, or a $500 million hotel.

It doesn't matter, work creates wealth. The dollars, the coins, the gold, silver, etc., CAN BE USED instead of bartering work for work. It provides an independent way to transfer the value of work from one person or project to another person or project.

In my neighborhood, most of the people attend some church. I'm sure this is common all across the U.S. Everyone in this community, church members and non-church members alike, help each other out. We help to keep each other's cars running, so people can get to their jobs and to doctor's appointments. We share our talents, doing electrical work, plumbing, driving eldely people to grocery stores, helping people to store up some extra food and supplies for an emergency and for winter.

The WORK which ALL OF US do, contributes to our financial well being, by keeping things working, and the homes safe and cozy. The ATTITUDE that drives us to do this work helps us to create something else, a sense of community. THAT is what made this country great, and that's just going to keep on happening.

Any concern that you may have about the entire economic system coming to a complete halt ignores these simple activities - which do not require ANY FORM OF MONEY. And the reason is simple. No one in these millions of small communities keeps track of the work that a particular man or woman does. No one really keeps track of who "takes more." It's usually the elderly, who have given during all of their healthy, working years, or maybe not. Maybe they just went to their job each day and sat in their living room and watched tv all of their lives. But we don't count any of that against them. They are our fellow human beings, and we are going to do what should be done for fellow human beings.

So chill out a little. Do you noticing any birds getting all anxious and depressed because the crops are dying and there just isn't any more seed on the ground? No, they just keep flying to wherever there is food, and gee whiz, they end up where it's nice and warm.

Tom

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#13
In reply to #10

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 5:04 AM

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The trouble with this thinking is that it ignores the most basic currency of all - work.

Work is the basis of everything. After a certain amount of work is performed, you have a result. You may have an electrical outlet installed, or a light fixture and a switch, where there was none, before. You also might have a house built, or a hotel, or a $500 million hotel.

Consider a simple Economic analogy: a bucket full of water (the WEALTH), being fed by a tap (WORK that is producing added value), with a hole in the bottom representing wealth that is leaking out of the Economy. As long as the tap is able to feed water into the bucket at a rate equal to or greater than the leakage then everything is OK and the population is getting richer.The only types of work that produce added value can be classifified as: Manufacturing, Agriculture and Mining. Unfortunately Service Industries dont produce wealth, they just stir the bucket by transferring wealth from one pocket to the other. Even worse,Manufacturing and Service Companies that are foreign owned contribute to the leakage by transferring profit to the parent company.

I'm only a simple Engineer, but it seems to me that this mathematical model fits the circumstances quite well in the UK. Manufacturing and Mining are very depressed and most of the population earn their crust in some kind of Service. Our essential Services,(Water, Electricity, and Rail Transport) are largely in foreign ownwership (how could any Government allow this to happen?).

I must admit to being very depressed by it all, and as for RELIGION being the solution dont what ever you do read any Richard Dawkins Books.

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#30
In reply to #13

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 2:01 PM

(how could any Government allow this to happen?)

Unfortunately, in OH where I live and in many other states, even the turnpikes are owned by outside backers. I believe Spain owns ours. The cause is likely either corrupt officials spending tax monies for their own use, or simply plain ordinary run-of-the- mill stupidity.

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#24
In reply to #10

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 10:36 AM

You are almost right that work is the basic staple. It is actually energy that allow us to work us to produce food and shelter. The problem is that unless you want to become a caveman, you need to exchange your energy (work) for somebody else energy (work). This person might be very far away. It is also difficult to adjust the units of work as not all jobs are the same. One hour of the farm hand's is worth less than the electrician's simply because of the investment in education done by the electrician (more work). Therefore the electrician's hour is worth two times the farm boy's. Abundance and scarcity also influence the relative value.

This is why, our ancestors eventually agreed on means of exchange that allow the electrician to get the potatoes even if the farmer didn't need electrical work. The electrician worked for the butcher who gave him something precious (gold, silver, sea shell), then the electrician traded some of it to the farmer for some potatoes. As a side note, the farmer wasn't interested in sea shells but his wife was, so he traded his potatoes for happiness... The "Monetary" item has to desirable by most people.

Anyway, as far as communities are concerned, the help system that you described above works because people have more than they need to survive. When it will become a question of survival, people will count their hours and expect something in return. There will be very little "free help" because in a society based on a limited pool of people, without money, you will not be able to buy OIL (energy). This means that all you energy will be needed to survive.

Yes, religion and communist system can help maintaining such a structure for a while but even religious people will eventually reject the ones that are not considered productive enough or abuse of the system. Charity has its limits. These rejects then become trouble makers. The movie "The postman" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Postman_(film) gives a relatively good example of what would happen and the type of life that would result. You are certainly correct to think that individuals leaving in good community spirit will do better. This is why human have been living in communities for thousands of years.

We don't realise it but the only reason we don't need to work sixteen hour a day like the settlers, is because of the sources of energy we tap in. Energy is food and lodging... Agriculture barely produce twice the amount of energy we put in. The work of a farmer feeds another person. If the farmer uses a horse, the gain is probably doubled. This is why medieval population was mostly farmers. They were needed to grow the food. If he uses a tractor, the gain is probably 10X because the oil produces about 30X the energy it takes to find, extract and refine. (This gain is going down as the easy oil is becoming rare). Using oil fertilizers increases the gain even more. But all of this collapses if you cannot but oil. Other sources of energy have much lower gain. This is why windmills and solar have not replaced oil yet.

If you want to tap into this energy gain, you need something to exchange with the oil producer. Money. Real money is better as it cannot easily be manipulated by the big guys. It has to last and be desirable for most people. This is why gold, and silver have been recognized as real money over the last 5000 year.

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#36
In reply to #24

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 3:13 PM

A good example is the Amish community in Pennsylvania. They shun modern devices and are almost 100% self sufficient.

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#41
In reply to #36

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 7:22 PM

You're right about the self sufficiency, but they do use modern devices, provided the device doesn't screw up their lives. They (not all - each bishop decides what's OK) use cell phones, roller blades, solar powered electric, and so on. Some bishops make them leave the cell phones outside the house. I had a Amish guy make me a sideboard last board and the communication was pretty strange. I had to call an english lady who called an Amish guy who used a phone and he walked over to the cabinetmaker, who didn't use a phone, and talked to him. While I was up there to select what I wanted, I stopped at a little Amish store. When I went in, they turned on the electric lights; when I left, they turned them back out and used just natural light.

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#48
In reply to #36

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 9:47 AM

ronseto,

also, the amish are the most profitable per acre of any farmers in america. they do this because the shun the internal combustion engine. in farming, if you are not supporting big oil, yes, the work energy from you and your farm animals is higher, but you wind up supporting yourself and your family and your community instead of rich stockholders in big oil. your dollars stay local. everyone in their community has a rise in REAL wealth.

so, yes, it is real hard work, but it is honest sweat, not paper profits from usary.

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#95
In reply to #36

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/26/2008 2:10 PM

Thats not quite right, but they are very good managers, such as self insured and basically paying cash on the barrel head for thier needs, including self insured health insurance, by forming a co-operative system within thier sect to meet thier needs.

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#66
In reply to #24

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 1:53 PM

Hi,

I enjoyed reading your response. Here are some more of my thoughts on the subject.

You remind me of the other side of our economy, the "work" which is produced by machines, which use energy to power them. I remember reading Buckminster Fuller, who estimated, in about 1939, that purchased energy was doing so much "work" that the production of each person in the US was multiplied 40 times.

I believe that the instability of the financial marketplace came about for many reasons, and that each of those reasons must be identified, in order to make corrections.

But I do know this from studying history. Whenever there is a very large discrepancy between what one group of people have, as a result of their "work," compared to the results produced by another group of people, that the large discrepancies lead the "not so well off" people to push for change.

A Greek island's people had perfected the science of providing clean water to all of it's citizens, and disposing of all of it's waste (into the ocean) many, many years ago (I don't recall, but it was hundreds if not thousands of years) before Rome did the same thing with aquaducts etc.

Trouble constantly came to the island, because everyone on the island was very well off, and neighboring islands believed that they had found an unlimited supply of gold, or some such resource. But the real resource was their knowledge: of how rain fell on the island, and how it could be directed to provide fresh water, and so doing, everyone was many times healthier than other people, who did not have this knowledge.

However, instead of spreading the knowledge, they guarded it fiercly.

After many attacks on the island, by competing people, the island fell to attackers.

When they were subjugated, they still did not share the secret of their success, and the ideas died with them.

So, sometimes we don't have to give anyone any material things, goods or money, in order to help them have parity with other human beings in their standard of living.

I believe that the US and the other western nations have been trying to bring ideas to all of the other countries in the world, in order to help them move forward. That is good, in the long run, but the development stage of countries building modern infrastructure is vey costly, especially in terms of energy supplies. Once the modern, long lasting buildings, etc are built, the demands for concrete and energy will subside. Right now, however there is a tremendous demand for energy supplies and the world is scrambling to keep up with the demand. That's one problem.

Another one has to to do with basic education. In this country, high schoolers are struggling to figure out algebra, while they don't even understand basic math, percentages, interest rates, etc.

There are millions and millions of Americans who have graduated from high school, but do not have the basic financial skills to make intelligent decisions about what to do with the money which they earn.

The situation we have now, I believe, comes from a concerted effort by marketers of products - especially autos and homes, to sell to people who truly did not have the means to pay the debts which they acquired to purchase those objects. And the people who they sold these goods to, actually could'nt afford them. The scale tipped, when the percentage of those people (who could barely meet their monthly payments) exceeded the risk assessment projections of the lenders. I would equally blame the sellers of cars, homes, auto loans, and mortgages, as I would the people who bought them, without "knowing" what they were doing. Therefore, greater oversight is needed on rating the credit worthiness of buyers, and greater BASIC financial education is needed in our schools.

My wife and I raised our four children in an existing home, about 1200 square feet, which was called "a fixer-upper." This home was "good enough." We always bought used cars. We did just fine. All of our children received college educations and are engaged in meaningful work. And they know how to enjoy life without spending a lot of money.

So the answer is? Well, there are a lot of problems and I have found that people are fairly resourceful, when they need to be.

Tom

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#71
In reply to #2

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 4:38 PM

GA

Bulls eye

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#3

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/19/2008 4:46 AM

It's nice to see there are people even more cynical than me.

It's about time we got back to making stuff rather than tradiing in thin air and paper...

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#31
In reply to #3

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 2:02 PM

AMEN!!!!

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#4

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/19/2008 4:08 PM

is it possible that we could start with massive deflation, and then suddenly have run away inflation?

Yes, but that's probably one of the better outcomes. If we have deflation (and it certainly appears from consumer confidence numbers that we do), the central bank's reponse is generally to lower interest rates in order to stimulate spending. Since the Fed (I'm guessing US?) rate is darn near zero now, there's not much room for that. The only cure then is to either wait it out (perhaps a decade), start a war (usually stimulates economies, but who shall we attack?), or print money like there's no tomorrow (stimulus packages are a mild form of this).

Adding money to the supply tends to cause inflation. But, we know how to stop that. Just raise the Fed rates.

The fly in the ointment is, of course, the huge amount of US currency (and debt) held by other countries. If we spook them by crazy yo-yo manuevers and they start dumping, it's Nelly-bar-the-door.

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#6
In reply to #4

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/19/2008 11:53 PM

Personally I feel that the fools that are holding U.S.Currency as if it is real money deserve to loose it's value. After all, we all know that it isn't worth the paper it is printed on. It hasn't been sense the Govt declared that the Gold note was no more valuable than the Federal reserve note. For our labor or for the products that we sell we accept this paper only because others will accept this paper in trade for other things. Clearly the actual paper is valueless, it only represents value.

This nation has squandered its fortune and our future funding assorted wars without demanding that the loosing countries repay our expenses. We as a nation have loaned money and forgiven the debt. Just who's damb money did this Govt think they were giving away. So what is the way out?

Consider the following, just for a little cracklins to suck on.

Create new coinage of more convenient values, so we don't have to haul bags full of the stuff around. Offer trade in value for existing coins for a limited time and then declare them to be worth only the scrap metal value. Do the same sort of thing with our paper currency, only for U.S.Citizens. Tell the rest of the world that they are just s--- out of luck.

They will respond by nationalizing investments in their country made by American investors. We will counter by nationalizing investments made in this country by their citizens. They will close their borders to us and we will do the same to their citizens.

All nations will follow suit. We will grow our own food and mfg our own products. This nation is large enough to provide for our own needs and defense.

We will establish price and wage controls. The cost of living will be adjusted so that no part of this nation is any more expensive to live in than any other.

Billions of dollars in bonds will be issued to rebuild the nations roads and bridges, this is the new WPA or maybe CCC. It will put the healthy and willing to work. For those who are able to work that are in prison, they will be given a choice. Work or be placed on barely survival rations. Stopping runaway population growth will not be popular but we will do what ever it takes.

I am sure that absolutely NO ONE AGREES with this proposal.

So I ask you just what do you think will happen when we are over taken by a single world order, a world Govt.

TMF

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#16
In reply to #6

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 7:45 AM

Toomuch,

Are you channelling McKinley?

I'm guessing you're either many years out of manufacturing or that wasn't in your background. We're in a globally-flat economy, like it or not. Our industry can't exist without chromium, uranium, oil, titanium, etc that we don't have. China has it's list of "must imports". Russia has it's list. Malaysia it's list, and so on.

Forget the controversy about paper money vs hard money. Money is electronic. "Net 30" has more economic value than all the gold on the planet. Try running a small business on cash for a few days and you'll see that it's very hard - you always pay top dollar (no negotiating leverage with suppliers - they know they've got you by the short hairs), you can't schedule JIT shipments or use kanban, you don't get discounts, and so on.

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#26
In reply to #16

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 12:37 PM

Cash always goes farther.

Recently I had an operation to implant a neuro stimulator which insurance would not pay. I paid cash and took the bill from $189,000 down to $87,000. Part of it was from auditing the bill and not paying for the things in the detail which were just a code and a price which they could not substantiate. The bulk of the reduction came from the 35% discount for cash.

I ran my machine shop on a cash bassis and almost always got a price break for material and when a customer paid cash I'd discount the bill.

Ever notice how it is that the produce wholesalers operate on a cash only bassis? Who's to say that entire load of tomatoes and lettuce didn't go bad...

Now, on the idea that in times of crissis gold will become the curency of choice... As so many like to point to the aftermath of Katrina - nobody broke out their Krugarands and started cuting them into 1/8ths (where the term Pieces of Eight comes from). But, if you had a gallon of gas and a loaf of bread you had some buying power!

Travis

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#27
In reply to #26

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 12:53 PM

Different perspectives. Small retail and service can usually run on cash. In fact, they may do better . However, if you're looking at manufacturing, you get a different story.

Try buying some steel in China, having it fabricated in Korea, included in an assembly in England, and installed in Mexico by Canadian installers, all coordinated by a US manufacturer. That's a little extreme but I just finished working on a job that was spread out like that. Without credit, everything would go much harder.

A couple years back, I worked on a job manufactured by a small outfit that had no credit - absolutely none (even the guy's mother wouldn't loan him money). In order to get the equipment installed in central Europe, we put a guy on a plane, carrying a huge chunk of cash. He went to Vienna and paid people as they worked. Not too efficient.

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#28
In reply to #16

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 1:46 PM

Good morning TP45,

It's nice to know that my typos were not written in vain. I personally don't believe all that stuff that I posted. I am well aware of the many raw materials that industry needs to produce the products we demand, and how world trade is now a necessary evil, or benefit, depending on your point of view.

However there exists some things that can be done to make life more bearable for the lower pay check earner. Things that will at least make them feel that the gap is not so very wide between the bottom and the top. Example: TV today has become a necessity in our lives. It is where we get the news. Generally opinionated and often exagerated, but we find out about the empending hurricanes, the tornadoes that have destroyed parts of, if not whole communities. We are entertained, and sometimes brainwashed. We learn of events that occur across the world. For better or worse we gain knowledge. But this comes at a huge expense for the folks earning the lower paycheck. Whether its Comcast, Direct TV or the Dish network, in order to get the programs that satisfy the majority of the population, one must buy many more that are never watched. This may be good business for the net works but it is just one more costly matter where the budget could be trimmed if we could simply purchase the dozen or so channels that the majority of viewers in our house holds prefer. Music channels are nice, "that is a few of them" the remainder are fodder for the trash bin. Why should I have to pay for 150 music channels just to get the two or three that we occasionally listen to. Why should I have to pay for the 125 TV program channels when only 20 or 30 different programs are being broad cast on multiple channels at the same time. Only three adults live in my home, no children. We don't watch cartoons, but every package "offers", that is requires that you pay for these shows. This part of our system is broken, and I could go on all day describing other situations and subjects that are just as much beyond control of the consumer.

That the public was held hostage by the high cost of gasoline and diesel has once again become very clear. There are some things that never should be left to the mercy of the profiteers, energy stands out as a most obvious one. The last time this happened in the 1970s, a depression set in across most of this nation. NOT THE WHOLE WORLD. This time the crisis became a bit more wide spread because there are more players in the game and they are spread across the world and have selling markets like Wall Street of there own. After WW2 and for many WW1 the European nations were virtually bankrupt. The victors have all had to pay for the damages cause by the losers. The losers certainly paid dearly for the problems they caused, but have never been caused to repay the winners for expenses they suffered in the winning cause.

These two events along with Korea, and Vietnam, "and lets not for get the COLD WAR, are the most prevelent cause of our national debt. AND; lets not forget that as the value of the dollar falls the value of this national debt rises.

Not only does this nation have too many people out of work, it has far too many people doing the wrong kind of work. Many are forced to take meanial jobs just to buy food and pay the mortgage or rent, along with utilities. The construction industry is the single largest producer of jobs and results that benefit the entire financial picture for this nation. No doubt, the lending industry is a leading problem causer that resulted in this current crisis, add to that the high fuel costs etc. These are just examples of folks jumping on the wagon of what seemed abundant money being spread around, so they moved to grab their share. Now that the bottom fell out of the money pit, those of us, the silent majority, are left to pay for the costs that were out of controll from the very git go, as there was never an over sight policy to prevent abuse.

The effects of the Great Depression lasted for many years, and it was ultimately the money invested in new construction by the WPA and CCC etc. that eventually worked its way through society bringing something that resembled stabilization. Then we had WW2 and the war economy, and fewer available employees, so fewer were out of work.

We do not need another world war to solve our current problems. We can invest in the renovation of our slums, which will just relocate to other areas, as you can remove some folks from the slum but not the slum causing attitude from those same folks. We can invest in the renovation of our aging bridges and enterstate highway system, and invest in the kinds of buildings that our unfunded mandates require of the local communities. The spin off is, this quickly puts disposable income back into the system. This will be the way to create jobs that are unrelated to construction but provide income for folks who cannot do the construction work.

Anyone care to agree or disagree with anything I have stated, feel free to do so.

TMF

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#38
In reply to #28

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 5:58 PM

That was a darn G A there 2MF.

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#42
In reply to #28

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 8:26 PM

Toomuch,

I don't think you can ask the losers in wars to pay; they're usually pretty broke.

Heck, I went to Germany in '64 and many of those folks were still destitude. Most of 'em couldn't even afford beer coolers so they had to drink their beer at cellar temperature! It couldn't have been any colder than maybe 46 or 47°F.

And the poor frauleins, ach. A lot of 'em obviously couldn't afford bathing suits, so they'd have to buy them a part at a time. You'd see the poor things just wearing the bottoms while saving enough for tops. But, I gotta say, the American GIs were wonderful - you'd see a lot of them offering a donation toward a top, especially for the girls that seemed to need them the most!

So, we gotta be sympathethic toward our former enemies.

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#45
In reply to #28

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 9:23 AM

toomuchfun,

i also think that is an answer that hits the key point. put government money into infrastructure. put payroll into workers pockets. it has always worked in the past.

this lack, is actually considered by many as the real reason for all of these bubbles. real wages have been stagnant since 1973 when we went off of the gold standard. since then all excess profits have been poured into speculative bubbles that all eventually went bust. henry ford had it right. he paid the highest wages in the auto industry. the other auto manufacturers, screamed, cried, pleaded, threatened, but his response was that : what good is all of this, if my employees can not afford to buy a ford?

joe

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#33
In reply to #6

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 2:09 PM

I am sure that absolutely NO ONE AGREES with this proposal.

Dont be too sure. I have been in favor of an isolationist stance since free trade and the whole NAFTA thing was initiated. Frankly, I just couldnt believe the c--p that I heard our execs spew out as to how wonderful this would be. Unfortunately, "I told you so" doesnt help in these times.

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#35
In reply to #33

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 2:51 PM

Thank you!

TMF

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#47
In reply to #33

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 9:40 AM

aqua doc,

i agree with you again. i also would prefer protectionist, isolationist practices. nafta and world free trade has not resulted in increased real wages. just has resulted in unstable profits for the rich, and instability for the rest. in other words it has only resulted in wealth redistribution upwards to the rich. the statistics clearly show this. if i had my druthers, we would dump NAFTA, we wouldn't build the nafta highway, we drasticly raise the import duties on all goods, we would raise them so high that the government could live on these duties alone, as the writers of the constitution intended and wrote into law that the government had to live. then, they could throw income tax into the trash bin, where it belongs.

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#5

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/19/2008 11:05 PM

The main problem is very few Americans actually understand how the financial system functions.

The Fedeal Reserve is a private corporation that has operated as the world"s bank for some 75+ years. This role is about to be superceded by another currency that will be SPECIC based and not FIAT based as the Fed Notes are.

The actual debt of the USA's FEDERAL RESERVE is more like several hundred trillion not the porported number floated by the current board members.

The USD will, over the next five years, be devaluted w.r.t. the Euro and the new Asian Dollar - China's new currency which is coming on line soon.

Any time you convert to Au or other asset based currency you will intrinsically hedge against devaluation of the base FIAT US currency.

The present situation did not happen by accident. It was contrived and known to the upper financial echeleon for over seven years.

The subprime weavers were the nidus of the situation but the ~ 52 Trillion exposure as a result of the default credit swaps is what has yet to be fully appreciated. Over and above these two situations is the 100"s of Trillions underwrtten in USD for the Senior Structured Unsubordinated Debt Instruments the Feds are continuing to issue Internationally every year.

The problem you have in the USA is the Feds create the credit and then fill it with FIAT Notes in the form of USD for the price is costs the United States Department of the Treasury to print the Federal Reserve Notes. The price of a $1 bil is almost the same as the cost for $1,000 US and it comes down to fraction of a penny per note printed. The only collateral fort this huge debt is the assignmenmt of every US citizen's taxes on all future income.

Botom line --- the USD is on its way down and it will stay down for the forseeable future.

Make some serious changes in your allocation of assets and make those changes away from USD - no matter what.

Cheers;

jc

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#7

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 12:17 AM

What perplexes me is that U.S such a vast country with large land area and many natural resources and small population has landed itself in such financial problem. What happened to economics wizards from Harvard and other universities?. Who landed U.S in such a problem? Bush?. I think Afghan and Iraq wars had hit U.S below the belt.Huge war expenses and maintaining troops there is eating away huge amount of money. Over and above that local industries have closed down as China has eaten away all mfg. business.Auto industry is hit by Japanese cars. Hollywood is no more producing great films as it used to do in past.

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#12
In reply to #7

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 1:42 AM

Great blueprint for disaster would include, but not be limited to: 1-subprime lending to bad credit people 2-free trade, ignore impact on US manufacturing 3-encourage use of farm land for ethanol rather than food production 4-suffocate US industry with green and pollution - exempt foreign competitors 5-give bailouts to financial institutions, not to those who produce wealth 6-undermine traditional values of marriage, religion-this is implicit Anybody want to add 7, 8, etc.?

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#22
In reply to #12

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 9:20 AM

7. Corrupt politicians

8. greedy CEOs

9. Naive consumers

10. us, the hard workers working for the unworthy unemployes9(profeesional nonworkers) who have te habit of collecting unemployment cheacks rather tha gong to work.

11. ?

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#23
In reply to #22

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 9:55 AM

11. I forgot: let's BANKRUPT THE COAL INDUSTRY! That way there will be no power grid to recharge all the electric cars that the Big Three are going to build after the government takes them over! Coal provides about 50% of all US electricity.

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#34
In reply to #23

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 2:14 PM

Am I in error (or misinformed about this? I heard that the Coal industry is one of the few bright spots economically and that China is buying large amounts of coking coals for the production of BF coke.

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#89
In reply to #34

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/26/2008 2:18 AM

What we have is a president-elect of 300 million citizens who concludes that the whole country should drive electric cars and we plan to bankrupt the source of that electricity btw. Gotta problem with that?

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#90
In reply to #89

ok, i guess people would rather talk politics, so be it.

11/26/2008 6:41 AM

hello EJay, i guess folks would rather rant on politics, so, i will give up the original thread and join in.

"What we have is a president-elect of 300 million citizens who concludes that the whole country should drive electric cars and we plan to bankrupt the source of that electricity btw. Gotta problem with that?"

nope. companies go bankrupt all the time, usually for the better. the coal will still be there. if it is needed, somebody else will go and get it.

my preference is decentralized energy production. in this scenario, solar and wind at the very basic level, individual homes, would power most of the energy needs of the home. this would include charging your electric car. this would free up the energy grid to supply energy to those people and industries that really need high power, not just light bulbs, tv's, radio's and game boxes. low power generation for low power needs. high power generation for high power needs. if companies can not adjust to that new way of doing things, then, yes, they should go bankrupt. why else do you think that the largest investors in solar panel manufacturing is big oil. my guess is that it is either make a profit either way, or so as to be able to shut it off it becomes too threatening, ie, artifical shortages again. i am not much of a believer in the inherent good intentions of big oil. they exhibit all of the bad qualities of monopolistic companies.

if this country needs clean energy, wants clean energy, while the companies can not do it because they are wed to the dirtiest and cheapest way of doing it, then yes, they should go bankrupt. if it takes legislation to get clean energy and it takes bankruptcy to get rid of dirty energy, then yes, they should go bankrupt.

a fact that people and companies overlook is that the power companies need consumers more than consumers need power companies. just look at what happened when consumers cut back on driving. the price of oil collapsed. if most homes in america added solar and wind power, the price of energy would collapse also. with that price collapse, the cost of manufacturing goods would go down.

the point is really that "business as usual" is like accelerating your car as you are heading for the cliff instead of putting on the brakes.

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#91
In reply to #90

Re: ok, i guess people would rather talk politics, so be it.

11/26/2008 7:36 AM

"if most homes in america added solar and wind power"

I would love that, however, the cost would have to come way, way, down to make it econmically feasible for the average homeowner.

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#92
In reply to #91

Re: ok, i guess people would rather talk politics, so be it.

11/26/2008 12:28 PM

hello bricktop,

no, i don't think so. yes, you are correct in the sense that if "business as usual" is the mantra, and if the average homeowner insisits that the change be transparent. in other words if the average homeowner insists that yes i want alternative decentralized power, but i do not want to stop doing things in my home that i have gotten used to. then yes costs of alternatives would have to wait for what will seem like forever.

but the change to a simpler lifestyle, with simpler equipment designed for alternative energy could be just what america needs. yes, providing 24 kw per day to a home costs a lot right now, but if they could lower that power demand dramaticly, the alternative could meet that need economicly.

it is sort of like the problem with big cars/small cars. eventually the small cars win because of the cost of energy. well, homes will need to change for the same reason.

joe

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#93
In reply to #90

Re: ok, i guess people would rather talk politics, so be it.

11/26/2008 12:39 PM

"nope. companies go bankrupt all the time, usually for the better. the coal will still be there. if it is needed, somebody else will go and get it." I think I'll just leave that thought on the table for you to ponder.

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#100
In reply to #90

Re: ok, i guess people would rather talk politics, so be it.

11/27/2008 11:10 PM

GA

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#94
In reply to #89

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/26/2008 1:44 PM

Ejay,

What he said was that the cap-and-trade costs would bankrupt a new conventional coal fired plant. It would not affect, and might even benefit, anybody building a new plant that uses clean coal, CO2 sequestration, etc. BTW, Senator McCain supported the same basic idea. Don't worry, West VA is still safe for outside mineral industries to loot and pillage.

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#96
In reply to #94

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/27/2008 1:10 AM

Nitey nite folks, have a good Thanksgiving. - Ed

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#103
In reply to #23

Re: deflation or devaluation

05/26/2020 10:57 PM

"... Coal provides about 50% of all US electricity. ...."

Well, no.

When are you from?

Turn of the century, perhaps? If so, welcome. Hope your trip wasn't all that long.

Here in 2020, there are only around 13 US states give or take, in which coal provides around 50% of the electricity.

For the entire United States, it is much lower, much, much lower. Not 45%, Not just 40%. It doesn't even account for 35%.

Percentage of electricity for the entire US produced by coal is around just 30%. Which, given its inherent dirty nature is several tens of percentage points too high.

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#8

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 12:20 AM

I think a round of shocking inflation is inevitable. Prepare by imagining that you are headed for a war during which nothing will be available for sale or will be rationed. Get the cars in good shape, consider some reasonable stockpiling--cases of beans, for example--and a supply of cash, preferrably in some other currency like euros or loonies. Act like you're going to lose your job--you probably will. Pay off the house, if you can. If you're in the city, find a place within a day's drive where you can hide out for a couple of weeks. Expect food riots, hunger, starvation, widespread lawlessness. There's no way to prepare, really. And you're better off behaving as if things will be okay not only because things probably will be okay, but because behaving that way will tend to make things okay. We now have a lot of expertise we didn't have in 1929. With an engaged and literate president, we will probably have a lot more help and cooperation from overseas than we would have had with McCain or Bush in office. Be of good cheer. Stock up on beans, though. That's always a good idea.

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#9

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 12:21 AM

Several items that I had to hand that will brighten up the day of the optimists!

Both Obama and McCain promised to rebuild the US economy. How? The US has relocated most of its industrial capacity, and the abandoned plants are old, out of date and falling apart.
It is no longer self sufficient in oil — as from the early 70's.
They delude themselves that they still lead the world in computer science . . . ?

Cash is needed to build the infrastructure, and the factories — where is that going to come from?. Where are the skilled workers who will work for a wage that makes the new industries competitive?

Best guess is the US will retreat within its borders, erect massive tariff protection walls and struggle on.
Probably the end of 'floating currencies —

How long will it go on for? My view, and I have a long time interest in such matters as I traded futures successfully on my own behalf, is that we haven't even seen the start of it yet. I am 70, and I do not expect to see the end of it.


Global Meltdown: Worse Than the Great Depression?
Posted: 2008/11/17 by Stephen Lendman. From: Mathaba
http://www.mathaba.net/rss/?x=611657


Leading Economist Warns of Food Riots

Letters of Credit and The Disruption of International Trade: Systemic Risk, Contagion and Trade Finance

By The London Banker and RGE Monitor
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21231.htm


The no-think nation: The Crisis Has Hardly Begun

By Paul Craig Roberts November 16, 2008 "Information Clearinghouse" --
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21243.htm

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#11
In reply to #9

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 1:40 AM

Yikes!

That was a brainful of information to read.

This is what I learned:

1.) A "qualified person," a former chairman of Goldman-Sachs, said that there is going to be a shake-out in the financial world. Okay, I get that. I can see that is happening right now. People who had no business lending money that they didn't own, lent it to people who were unqualified to receive it. That led to an overabundance of building, which led to the current devaluation of housing in general, which is leading the unqualified borrowers to default on the loans which should not have been made in the first place.

I'm a subject writer, specializing in common sense. My conclusion: The rate at which they were building houses during the greatest surge in housing construction in this century would have resulted in the replacement of all of the housing in this country in about 100 years. If you think that is a "tremendous amount of overbuilding" then you don't know as many people as I do who have two homes. (No, I'm not rich. Some people I know own a very small condo in Chicago, where they work and a decent three bedroom home out in the country, where they live.)

2.) A man I have never heard of, who is in the business of advising READERS about what to do with their money, and who writes for a PRECIOUS METALS NEWSLETTER, forecasts that a certain set of moves might or might not take place, and that, if the right set of moves take place, gold MIGHT go up to as much as $10,000 an ounce in value.

Conclusion: There is only one problem with the scenario. ONLY the people who own gold are going to benefit from a revaluation of all of the currency in the world. Now why would anyone in their right mind create an exchange of assets, which would result in ONE CLASS OF ASSET OWNERS benefitting, while EVERYONE ELSE ends up on the losing end of the bargain? The answer: It isn't going to happen.

However, I'll bet gold will fluctuate in value drastically, during the next year or two, while the financial markets calm down, and people get back to working.

Tom

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#14

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 6:06 AM

Let me make it clear that I am not an American but live thousands of miles away in India but I have my brothers and other relatives who have become American citizens. American dream was in every ones mind many years ago and my parents who were middle class teachers had dreamt to send their children to America for bright future. So my brothers migrated while I decided to remain here to take care of my old parents.

I dont know what will be fate of my brothers, but I will advise them to face the situation and fight out the difficult time. I would also like all Americans to rise to the cause and tighten the belts and fight out the crisis. I know that there are many people who can lead the masses and bring them out of mess. So stop Whining and do what is good for all Americans.

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#15

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 6:31 AM

Joe,Forget "Change" as a return to the 1990's. Both parties agree that America is going back to 1950. We are "deleveraging"

. Credit will tighten. Americans will pay cash or make defined monthly installments. America cannot afford mass retirement so only the very rich and very lame will retire. America cannot afford to loose manufacturing. But American manufacturers aren't competitive at current wages and benefits. So wages and benefits will continue to fall. Ross Perro was right: there has been a great sucking sound as jobs have left America. They will be back as our wages decline and the Brazilians/Russians/Indians/Chinese rise.

Writer's in Wharton's, Real Estate Review, predict suburbs will coalesce into villages and city slums will be renewed, upward, while in town neighborhoods will morph into the new 'burbs. Immigration will slow. Families will grow in size. Light pollution is finally on the radar screen and it is a bogey. The defenses are being mobilized and the bogey will be brought down.

So it is written; so it will be. Bet on it. Take it to the bank, Joe.

Bob G

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#17

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 8:17 AM

Give me a Valium! I didn't need to wake up to all this gloom and doom. To all of you sorrowful souls playing your violins over the caskets of the dead and dying world economies I say blow it out your backside.

I don't fly in the intellectual thin air enough to know a "debt swap instrument" from a load of coal. What I do know is that most people will just buckle down and take care of their own and this will eventually work its way out. I was planning to retire and now I have had to change my mind. OK, hand me that shovel and get out of my way.

But, like global warming, this "crisis" will be better served with less intervention and more honest labor.

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#18

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 8:45 AM

For what is worth and not getting into qualifying the reasons for these comments:

It has been time to:

_Understand and accept accountability for all that we do or not do

_Undertake the responsibility to truly care for ourselves and our families

_Accept the re-balancing of the global economy

_Act to reset our financial needs and wants.

_Interact and network our necessities with our local and global neighbors

_Stop blaming others for the current collective financial consequences.

_Stop pointing the finger at others for the current financial turmoil

Once we do the above ( easier said than done) and return to basic need, supply and demand of everything we do; we can

Start by "setting aside greed" and begin the treacherous journey back to a reasonable

social /financial / political balances.

Only then, we have a chance at creating global relationships and diminish social/political/financial/religious dictatorships

Strategies in how to survive???? we are all different. However, there are common

aspects that affect us: Our individual P/Ls. In general: we know of potentials to de-valuate currency, hard goods and services. Those that fall within the "NEED " will sustain better stability. Those in the "WANT" column will de-valuate and become surplus with some degree of value in a "barter" environment.

Cash in and precious metals are king of the hill for now. Do yourself a favor and stop

borrowing for now. Secure a shelter, food , water , health care and some income .

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#19

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 8:51 AM

Isn't that what I said? Less eloquently of course.

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#20
In reply to #19

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 9:08 AM

Yup, that's pretty much what you said.

"I was planning to retire and now I have had to change my mind. OK, hand me that shovel and get out of my way."

My retirement plans are also on hold for now.

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#21

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 9:16 AM

hello everyone,

i want to thank all of you for pretty much sticking to the questions asked and for replies that pretty much make sense. i was really surprised by the number of posts that said money is not the issue, that we should just be real, contribute what we can, support each other and get to work. those posts made me feel that there is room for optimism in the long run.

about the replies that stuck to the financial side of the questions. i still do not see any guide lines as to how one can prepare for both deflation, possibly followed by massive devaluation. as for me, i am fairly poor by wealth standards, but what i have is paid for. i guess i will try to build up my stockpile of food from what i now estimate at 6 months. i will try to get to the next milestone of a 3 year supply. i can see that i am going to need a bigger pantry. also, i thinkk i will start buying some junk silver (circulated silver coins, that do not carry premieums). i also do not have enough ammunition for a long term disruption.

thanks again to all for insightful replies.

joe

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#25
In reply to #21

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 11:22 AM

Artbyjoe:

You started this thread and lots of people responded.

In my opinion, the people who are going to hurt or being hurt or will get hurt are the people who did not know or do not know how to live within their means. The world is very tempting and enticing and Keeping up with the Joneses very easy and peole fall in that trap and now they are the ones who are dreading the outcome of this economic meltdown. Some people like me who wised up when there was time are not likely to get hurt.

I did not buy the mansion just a three bedroom house with 2400 Sq feet. Small Van by Nissan (My wife wanted to buy a van with bench seats and Nissan was the only one offering in 1998) and a small 2003 ford ocus for me and a truck Cvevy 2006 for my son to go to Texas Univ in Austin and his 4 years college tution fee is in resrve and I asked him not to work and just focus on the studies. I am not bragging but telling the facts that I do not worry about it. Gas was 4 dollars and I did not worry as I do not drive aimlessly.

Please, all of you. Have faith in USA and the things will turn around. Some people very old people may not live to see the turnaround but it will happen and America will come ot as a winner, just have faith.

You may call me a naive fool but I have faith in America. Remember, there was crash of 30s and then 1987 and we all got what we lost. I lost lots of money in the stocks but it came back as I did not lose any money of my own. What I made in stocks, I lost in the stock. It was just a paper money. I never got it and when I lost I did not mourn. Right now it looks very grim but things would change. they always do.

Regards;

Nadeem,

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#32

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 2:07 PM

From reading the posts the problem is the "me myself I" syndrome and how as a group we are being manipulated by a minority of people with little morals and no human compassion.

1. The price of crude oil was more than Doubled in the past 2 years by greed and we were told by media etc it will never come down as we are running out.

Did we suddenly find a huge reserve that was previously unknown?

You can go through all the inflated metal prices etc and draw the same conclusion a few have profited and manipulated the markets for personal gain and profit with no thought for the human cost involved

No as a planet we were manipulated by the few and it was given the stamp of approval by those in Power.

One of the greastest problems we will always face is the governments of the world no longer govern there respective countries for the betterment of the people but put business first and people second.

All the overheating of economy, over supply, paper money vs gold comes back to the me myself i. What is in it for ME. i want some for MYSELF. I should get as much money as i can or put simply the GREED of a few has once again caused hardship for the many with those elected to gaurd against it are to caught up in the web to do what they were elected to do. Manage their respective countries for the good of the many.

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#39
In reply to #32

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 6:23 PM

Hello Grochy,

I totally agree with you and give you a point for that.

The problems are obvious and the answer is obvious and simple, honest government regulation of the monetary system which profits from production not speculation on worthless paper which ramps up inflation and destroys the savings of hard working people. our government has the GST and is quite happy to see inflation because they receive more taxes. Instead of taxes being used to balance the workings of the economy they are just indiscriminate methods of relieving us of our money.

The pity of this is that if governments really tried to put the people first the economy of the country would do so well politicians might even consider reducing taxes.

I live in hope.

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#44
In reply to #32

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 2:12 AM

Prices of oil were manipulated by commodities market and encouraged by Bush who has indirect interest in oil industry. Steel and other metal prices were hiked up by Mittal who has cornered 50% of the share of steel producing mills.These both and other factors created havoc and mind blowing inflation.Finally collapse of total financial system.

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#49
In reply to #44

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 10:41 AM

suresh sharma;

ARE YOU WITCH HUNTING?

Do you have any verifiable evidence that Pres Bush encouraged manipulation of the stock market. MANY PEOPLE FROM TEXAS INVEST IN THE STOCK MARKET AND OIL LIKELY IS A COMFORTABLE SUBJECT TO THEM. Pres. Bush is from Texas and likely has connections in that industry, but having connections and wishing them well is not a reason to convict some one of wrong doing with out absolute proof. Unfortunately; people voice opinions with out a shred of evidence, and like minded folks spread the falsehoods like jelly on toast. Eventually the media gets a hold of these unfounded claims and spreads the News, and the innocent pay a horrible price.

No doubt the system is broke when a speculator can invest very little capital, like a hundred thousand dollars and control maybe a million dollars of value in oil futures. I have read that it was actually the controllers of huge investment funds who were the cause of the runaway price increases in that market. But I do not have any proof of that, so even though it seems likely to me, I don't publish that. No doubt that rumors of OPEC reducing the production or other wise increasing the cost of crude causes speculators to see a possible value in these investments. It is a legal form of gambling, and the controllers are risking capital that is the property of many. Those who saw their investments increase in value were overjoyed by the reports of their gains, but the collapse that has occurred as the result of runaway pricing will quickly erode much of that, as it spreads all across the entire investment spectrum.

I am not from Texas, but I have worked there several times in the construction business and the folks I met there were forth right, helpful and friendly.

TMF

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 11:32 AM

toomuchfun,

"that industry, but having connections and wishing them well is not a reason to convict some one of wrong doing with out absolute proof".

i disagree: one does not need absolute proof to express our opinions that some one is wrong, dishonest, a criminal, a crook. at least in this country it is not a crime to express these opinions. also, if you are refering to possible impeachment, that is not a criminal process at all, and needs no proof of anything. impeachment is a political process to correct something wrong. impeachment is not a problem, impeachment is a process to correct a problem.

joe

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#51
In reply to #50

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 12:30 PM

artbyjoe, my name id Joe also.

We have a legal system in place to convict criminals, and protect the citizens from wrong doling by others including slander. Civil infractions do not include encarseration, but do include the payment of damages to the party harmed when it is determined that harm was in fact incurred. The complaint made by suresh did not include the statement ---- in my opinion---- it was made as a statement of known fact that could be supported by facts.

I have in mind an issue that I am very aware of that has occurred with in the Masonic order of New Jersey. A personal friend of mind attended a Masonic funeral service several months back. He is a past master of several different lodges. Therefore he has several different past masters aprons from these lodges. A couple of years age a Grand Master wrongfully closed Two masonic lodges and the Lodges officer aprons came up missing. There were allegations of theft. These aprons showed up in the possession of a new lodge created by that same Grand Master. After the aforementioned funeral service, My dear friend was accused of having stolen these so called missing aprons as it was observed that he was lending Aprons to a few of the past masters who were attending said funeral. These were his personal property that were given to him by the lodges that he had served as past master.

There are a few persons that have it in for my friend and some of them have filed a complaint against him for having stolen these aprons that showed up in a lodge meeting and were never stolen at all. Addeded to this, is the issue that the plaintiffs will introduce wittness's to this sharing of stolen aprons that were never stolen by my friend.

THE BILL OF RIGHTS GARANTEES EACH OF US THE RIGHT OF A FAIR TRIAL AND THE RIGHT TO FACE OUR ACCUSORS.

These folks that have filed these false charges are liable for damages. This will not likely be solved in the Quasi-Judicial Court of the Grand Lodge of N.J. and when my friend asks the civil court to hear and rule in the matter the Judge will likely determine that this is a Masonic Issue and command the Grand to abide by it's constitution and conduct a fair trial accordingly. If the Grand Lodge fails to accomodate the ruling of the Civil court Judge, then my friend can include the Grand Lodge as a co-respondant in the matter and sue in civil Court for damages. The problem with this is it costs lots of money to accomplish this. I personally handle things a little differently, I confront the bastard, and make threats to do bodily harm with every intention to do so. The Sheriff says that I cannot take the law into my own hands. But he cannot prevent me from defending myself.

No doubt, people who serve in public offices get accused of things that they are not responsible for. It goes along with the job.

But accusing someone of criminal wrong doing crosses the line of what is opinion and what is out right slander.

I have no problem with your disagreeing with my post but I suggest that you do not crawl in bed with shuresh. That is, unless you can prove him correct.

TMF

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#53
In reply to #51

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 7:53 PM

toomuchfun,

ok, that was a lot to digest. i think you have it right in the case that you are discussing. yes, he must first fight the criminal charges, If they are brought in a court of law. then when the charges are dismissed or he is found not guilty, then he can sue for slander. it is true, he can't win in a slander suit. if it is not true he can win in a slander suit. as far as i can see, that is just the way it is. you and i may not like it, but we have to live with it. you also have the right to go public and publish and spread the story that you think this guy is getting shafted and raise as big a stink as you want to, are willing to, and can do. that is your right and no body can stop you from expressing your opinion or getting it published.

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#54
In reply to #53

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 11:17 PM

artbyjoe , I'll just make this last comment regarding this subject.

I have known folks who have made comments that they wish they had never made. And this can happen almost immediately after the statement was made. I have know folks that will lead a person into agreeing that another is not a good person and will actually run the absent individual down hoping that they can get an agreement from you. Then in your absence they go to the party that the both of you made the less than flattering statements about and report that you are not that persons friend as you "said" what ever it was you only agreed to.

I have learned over the years that running ones mouth about anothers conduct that may only be your point of view, can cause you a lot of grief at a later time. You can make a lot of enemies that way. Apologies regarding such matters never seem to pass.

Therefore I take the point that if nothing detrimental needs to be said, don't say it. You cannot put your words back where they came from.

TMF

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#56
In reply to #51

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 8:53 AM

I don't agree with Suresh Sharma, but he does have the right to criticize public officials. The first amendment to the US Constitution is all about political free speech and gives us the right to criticize public officials without fear of being prosecuted for slander or libel under most circumstances. New York v. Sullivan lay down the guideline that the plaintiff must show that the defendant acted with actual malice (Remember the Paul Newman movie, Absence of Malice?) i.e., the defendant knew the statement was false, or recklessly disregarded any normal standards of truthfulness.

Protecting our freedoms means that we have to also protect the right of Suresh Sharma to say something that is most likely wrong.

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#57
In reply to #56

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 10:34 AM

This reply is intended as a response to TP45 and suresh.

We elect Presidents to lead our Nation for limited periods of time. Unfortunately, we generally elect one or more houses of congress that are dominated by the opposite party. The president has no authority to create law. The president can only propose for consideration an idea regarding the adoption of his idea of a law that the president feels should be adopted.

Congress creates and passes a budget, creates and passes laws, and orders the nations states to provide services without funding to pay for said services. The president can veto any act of congress that he feels is not good for the nation. However congress retains the right to over ride the presidents veto.

From this information we can see that congress is more responsible than any president for the problems of this nation. Yet we wrongfully blame the president, for the foolishness of congress. Further, the members of congress hide their identity behind the faceless crowd as they vote to elect into law acts that they would not normally be willing to assume responsibility for. Go figure. Both houses of congress are filled with elderly statesmen who for the most part control the well fare of this nation. They have the influence to cause the new comers to the arena and pressure those encombents not long into the political arena, to bend to their wills, and from this we get more lard than meat as we get greased just before they stick it to us.

It was acts of congress that led to the housing crisis, and a lack of action of congress that opened the door for risky lending practices and fraudulent activities. We believe that this lack of an over site policy occurs at the behest of the big money influence provided by the lenders who desire the fewest restrictions possible regarding their lending policies. The easy money being made available to the masses of lower income earners created a false economic atmosphere. Almost no contractor wants to build hundreds of moderate budget housing when they can build upscale housing for greater profit. AND; with the money so easy to borrow, those not used to having this easy credit available are regularly persuaded to "move on up to the big time for a bigger slice of the easy money pie." The easy availability of this easy money led to the creation of a false economy. The result of said falsness was that even profiteers not associated directly with the housing industry, like the oil futures speculators all climed on this wagon of prosperity. When the wagon became over loaded with profit takers, it simply colapsed.

Many of these homeowners who are now facing foreclosure would still be struggleing, but would be able to keep their homes if they had purchased moderately priced houseing, in neighborhoods that were not filled with the upscale housing of the wealthy retired. Sure it is nice to live in a home that fronts on a beautiful golf course or a waterfront, but these kinds of eminities, even just living in these neighborhoods inflates the overal value of the home. No doubt the borrowers contributed to the problem but so did the builders and sellers.

The vast majority of home owners, those who have been paying on their mortgages for years suffered tremendously as the result of this carelessness. The values of our homes were inflated, and on the surface that seems as we also gained easy profit. However our property taxes jumped to rediculas levels and we paid them, now our sudden wealth has been reversed. Our homes are now worth less than they might have been before this debacle because the market is flooded with homes being dumped on a crowded real estate market by these same lenders that were so freely lending money to folks that can not afford to repay.

AND: OUR CONGRESS, is takeing the steps to ease the PAIN of those at the top, and spread PAIN amongst who had nothing to do with the creation of this crisis to begin with, "Don't you know."

I think it is time that we stopped blameing the president for the failures of the legislature and held congress responsible for the problems they create. "Vote'em out" "Don't you see!"

It would be the responsible thing to do! Monitor their voteing records, reduce the quality killing riders that are added to almost every piece of worthy legislation. The system isn't broke, but it certainly needs a tune up.

TMF

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#58
In reply to #57

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 11:11 AM

Toomuch,

As Judge Judy says, "Put on your listening ears." I wasn't criticizing President Bush; I was saying free men have a right to criticize him. It's the price of freedom.

I agree that there's plenty of blame to go around. But we voters let those %^&&@ stay in office, so we gotta have a mirror handy when we start pointing fingers.

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#60
In reply to #58

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 12:12 PM

Sorry if you got the message in a way that was un intended, most was pointed at suresh, who doesn't seem to comprehend just how our Govt. functions. I do not disagree that we have a right to condem a person for his policies if we don't agree with them, even if he is the President of the U.S. of A.. However condemming the president for the ultra liberal/socialistic policies of a Nancy Pelosi led House of Representatives is not going to encourage change in the House. The same can be said for the Senate. If the President did not have the right to choose his advisors and the individuals who are tasked with managing the Govt. he was elected to manage, he may just as well stayed home. One of our most basic securities is the fact that some positions will have supervisors that must answer to their ultimate supervisor. NO president could function if his cabinet was selected by the opposing party. If he is truly seeking good advice from specialists in the many fields that he must attend to, he ought to be able to select those in whom he can trust to provide the best advice. Such advice is not going to come from persons who didn't want him elected in the first place.

And; these advisors and dept. heads are regularly changed with each new change in presidency. If it were not for these issues we would have only a one party system, You Know like it was in Communist Block that cost us so much money to defend against.

TMF

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#73
In reply to #60

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 7:07 PM

toomuchfun,

ok, i will let you get away with some of that. but some of it is rubbish. you can not blame the victum. the house of representatives and the senate and the people of the united states are the victums of a bad administration. your trying to shift the blame from where it really belongs to anyone else is at least ingenuous, which some people would call lying. especially the victums. the house, the senate and the people were helpless to prevent the abuses of the administration. so, just leave the mud where it hits. that is exactly where it belongs.

joe

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#77
In reply to #73

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 8:09 AM

sending the house and senate to protect the population is like letting hungry wild cats guard a box of helpless rabbits. I am not letting you get away with being so ignorant. I suggest you bone up on just how our govt. is really run.

TMF

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#86
In reply to #60

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/24/2008 9:22 AM

23-27% approval rating of this president shows that he is the dumbest or ilinformed president of all time who brought the world to this criminally dangerous point. 73 to 77% of the people can not be wrong. Suresh may not live here but he understands what is going on in America. I think rest of the world knows about it except some who are the bush kissers. This is my opinion and some may not like it but hey, this is the forum to express what you want to say or think.

Non of the messages on thsi topic shall be graced with an answer. So please save your time and do not answer,

You all have great day

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#87
In reply to #86

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/24/2008 10:14 AM

hello everyone,

i would hope that others will honor Nadeem0430's request for us to not reply to his post. i appreciate his right to express his opinion. i would prefer to see this thread as a politics free zone. i see nothing wrong with us expressing our opinions and leaving it at that, but debating these opinions is not the point of this thread. they should at least marked as off topic. start another thread if you want and mention it here, no problem. if most of you would prefer this to be just a political rant back and forth, so be it. just let me know.

thank you

joe

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#59
In reply to #57

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 11:17 AM

toomuchfun,

again i disagree with you. our president is not above the law. he is also responsible for the actions of the people that work in his administration and report to him and carry out his will. they call it "working at the will of the president". he is responsible. if for any reason he can not be held legaly accountable for his actions, then the only recourse is to publicly blame him, shame him, shun him, marginalize him, ignore him and vote his party out, as punishment. it is not only our legal right to do this, it is our responsiblity to do this. if don't, we are the traitors. dissent is patriotic, not treason. they can spin it any way they want, but we the citizens know our rights and should stand up for them, because nobody else will. that is the primary reason that we have the "right to bear arms", so as to be able to defend ourselves from the government, to protect the constitution from governments that try to destroy it. i personaly believe that military training should be compulsary, so that we have a trained, armed, civilian population to protect us from our government.

anything short of these things is just apeasment and the surrender of our constitutional rights and duties.

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#62
In reply to #59

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 12:50 PM

artbyjoe,

please do not put words into my statements that I do not make.

I already have my stock pile of guns and bullets. I have had them for a long time and I am not going to give them up so long as I am alive.

If you wish to blame a President for his policies, so be it. I do!

However I am not going to blame the presidency for the failures of the congress, especially when the congress is controlled by the opposing party who has an interest in gaining control of the presidency so they can appease those "Mega Dollar Donators to their campaigns and party."

Maybe you do not remember the runaway interest rates of the 1980's. I do! This was caused by p--- p--- leadership by a presidency that also was the leader of the party that controlled the legislature. Inflation was rampant and interest rates were knocking on the door of about 25%. It required a complete change in the control of Govt. by the other party to regain sanity regarding our leadership. Ronald Regan was condemmed mercylessly for his policies and for ram roding his ideas through the legislature by the banking industry and the democratic/socialists of congress. There will always be winners and losers in every point of view. I am a bit more conservative than just the middle of the road thinker. Many programs that target the poor, elderly, and needy, especially the physically handicapped, I do not view as socialistic nor well fare.

However I will make this point. 96% of our prison population is from the african american segment of our total population, and 90% of them are born to unwed mothers or other wise single parent house holds, sense 1960. Our well fare system sponserd this and discriminated against caucasian women who were only in a short term need. My wife, when she was going through a horrible divorce, and need only a little temporary help was told by a black female administrator of a local agency that she certainly qualified for some assistance but was not going to receive it because she was the wrong color.

These policies do not come from the office of the presidency. They come from a dysfunctional congress.

So if you are frustrated with the conduct of government call your congress men and women and tell them to get it right for a change.

TMF

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#74
In reply to #62

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 7:19 PM

toomuchfun,

more rubbish. i have no desire to put words in your mouth. what comes out of your mouth is bad enough. you are just wrong, wrong, wrong.

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#61
In reply to #57

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 12:14 PM

Yup Yup Yup agh..

The values of our homes were inflated, and on the surface that seems as we also gained easy profit. However our property taxes jumped to rediculas levels and we paid them, now our sudden wealth has been reversed. Our homes are now worth less than they might have been before this debacle because the market is flooded with homes being dumped on a crowded real estate market by these same lenders that were so freely lending money to folks that can not afford to repay..

Nope nope nope you can't lose what you never had...

OUR CONGRESS, is takeing the steps to ease the PAIN of those at the top, and spread PAIN amongst who had nothing to do with the creation of this crisis to begin with, "Don't you know."

Nope nope nope

Our republican majority congress of 1999 proposed a change of the restrictions enacted to prevent a recurrences of the 1929 stock market crash and then pres. Clinton signed it into law.

Currently our congress allowed the executive branch to bully them into approving this onerous bailout package considering the powers recently granted to the Treasury Secretary.

The system isn't broke, but it certainly needs a tune up.

Nope nope nope

The system certainly isn't broke nor does it need a tune up but we the people sure do. We need sit up and pay attention, maybe CSPAN isn't enough. We may need and interactive solution based system fostering use of our system of government DUH! We may need to communicate using our system of government by making our points of view known, by telling your City Councilman, Mayor, Governor, Representative, Senator and President. Use the civilian change of command get involved!

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#63
In reply to #61

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 1:07 PM

WE, JOE's and JANE's of the public elect a congress to get it right, not give it away. Before you go spouting off against the republican party, going all the way back to 1929, I suggest that you count up the years that congress was controlled by the Democrats and as an after thought count up the years that a democrat was present. Compare these against the years that we had a republican led govt. and the picture gets much more clear. I remember a Lyndon Johnson promise that there would be no excelleration in the number of our military in Vietnam, and turned around and increased the number by thousands. I am aware of a democratically controlled congress that would not let the military take the war to North Vietnam. I am aware of the gasoline shortage of the early seventies, and a democratically controlled congress and a peanut farmer from Georgia that were the power brokers that let that happen too. I ended up out of work for more than a year and a half, divorced, and broke. Prior to that experience I was a die hard democrat. As far as I am concerned the democrats can drop dead and take there socializim with them.

TMF

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#65
In reply to #63

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 1:23 PM

Whoa up there

I'm making observations based on the "We the People" concept but realizing the people aren't paying attention.

It is we the people whom are disinterested in governance that are the responsible group. We cannot lay blame anywhere else.

I agree with most of what you've stated.

Cool down reread the post with an objective mind.

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#69
In reply to #63

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 3:17 PM

Been there, yep that was the early 70's: hate Nixon vote Carter. I registered as a Democrat in 1968 then went on to vote for Billy Carter's brother in 1976. That is the LAST Democratic presidential candidate I have voted for. To this day, few things bring a similar chill as that memory. What the heck was I thinking? Answer: I wasn't. I was feeling. Right now the press is bragging up the scholastic achievements of all BO's appointees. These same groups of people have us converting (with Mr. Buffet's son's blessing) food acreage into ethanol acreage. Other than more out of control immigration and low prime loans, I don't know what else is needed but am fully confident that our appointed elite will continue their smart decisions record of the past. Oh, bankrupting the coal industry is clever, let's try that, we can always fly airplanes with windmill generated electricity. Yeah, kind of like that.

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#72
In reply to #63

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 5:07 PM

I remember a Lyndon Johnson promise that there would be no acceleration in the number of our military in Vietnam, and turned around and increased the number by thousands.

What was the reason for that war?

I am aware of a democratically controlled congress that would not let the military take the war to North Vietnam.

Were we also liberating North Vietnam?? From themselves?

I am aware of the gasoline shortage of the early seventies,

I rode my scooter through the west coast oil fields regularly about that time, it was a short way from there to here. On one ride I noticed all the mechanical crickets had stopped pumping oil and thought it an odd thing. About six months later I heard there was an oil shortage. Wow! if the pumps stop we will run out of fuel what a revelation!

and a democratically controlled congress and a peanut farmer from Georgia that were the power brokers that let that happen too.

Nah, not even close

I ended up out of work for more than a year and a half, divorced, and broke. Prior to that experience I was a die hard democrat.

Without good advice you lost your way, experience is a teacher.

As far as I am concerned the democrats can drop dead and take there socialism with them.

I am no democrat nor do see socialism prevailing in the USA

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#76
In reply to #72

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 8:04 AM

I rode my scooter through the west coast oil fields about that time.

That statement tells me that you are likely from the Left Coast, west of the San Andreus fault. That you just may be another one of those UC Berkley drop outs, likely dropping some of the best acid that California/Baha had to offer, or was angel dust your deal, surely you enjoyed those little black gum drops with all of that and your way out there instructors seemed to have left you with just a little less common sense than a box of rocks.

Get a life. No more comments from me regarding deflation or devaluation or this last post.

TMF

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#97
In reply to #76

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/27/2008 10:53 PM

It's a fair question and I am a right coaster dude lighten up

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#64
In reply to #57

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 1:17 PM

Toomuchfun,

After reading your post what I can construe is that President is solely dependant on the congress. All wrong decisions are finally taken by congress. So congress is to be blamed for all wrong decisions. Does it mean that President is just a figurehead?.

I hope you might be aware of the fact that how world is suffering. Here in India stock markets have crushed leading to huge personal loss to many middle class people who had invested large amount of money in stocks. Many of them have committed suicides along with their families.

Business is totally down. Ports are full of containers which were meant for export. Also some containers which were meant for imports are lying at docks as importers do not have money to pay. Many jobs are gone. Banks have tightened credits.

So this is impact on world economy for the wrong decisions taken by the congress.

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#67
In reply to #64

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 2:32 PM

Suresha Sharma,

You should proabably hold off on laying blame. The truth, I'm pretty sure, is that we know lots of people in America who deserve some blame, but we don't really know exactly what happened yet except that it appears to have been centered around greed and stupidity.

Everybody is starting to feel the pain. I ran into an old friend in the grocery market yesterday who I hadn't seen for 5 or 6 months. He told me that his retirement pension had lost about 80% of it's value in the past three months and that he expected to have to go back to work after the holidays. Our local food pantries are almost empty. The local homeless shelter is in danger of closing for lack of funds. So, I empathize with your country's plight, but most of us are getting screwed right along with you.

So, let's try to concentrate on getting through this time, helping each other as best we can, and figure out who to crucify later.

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#70
In reply to #64

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 3:18 PM

suresh sharma,

No offence was ever intended toward you, but the President of the Unided States is not responsible for the fate of the people of India any more than he can CONTROL the fate of the people of this country. Many things are not right with the governments of almost every country in the world.

I refuse to invest in the stock market because it can be volitile and easily manipulated by those who are the controllers of huge sums of money. And organizations like OPEC hold the entire world economy hostage. The only thing that the President of the U.S. can do to help alter the oil issue is to jeprodise the security of this nation by releasing oil from the strategic reserve. That is only a short term opportunity, as for the security of our nation it must be returned to acceptable levels. In the oil producing Arab Nations, there exists 2 classifications of citizens. Those who just get along and those who are very wealthy and in control.

The many businesses of this nation who exported control of much of the communications with the public to countries like India robbed the consummers of this nation, of the ability to earn a living, and in the process created ill feelings with many of those who lost their jobs as the result of this. Almost every day I get numerous calls from India from people telling me that some particular payment is due when it is not yet late, and the phone rings on and on and on to the point that my privacy has been so violated that I will not answer my phone. To make it even worse is that fact that I can never reach the "son of a bitch" that orders this to occur. So now my home telephone is dedicated for receiving and sending faxes. I have every right to feel abused.

I don't blame the people in India for trying to earn a living, but invading my space is not their God given right. World wide the system is broken. Across the world countries look to the people of the U.S.A for help when crisis occurs in their nations, yet they dump their products on U.S. markets for prices that are less than compeditive for the U.S. Mfg.. When this occurs the local workers are put out of work and lose their homes and suffer just like those Whom you have just reffered to in India. It is wrong to blame the Govt. of the U.S.A for the problems that exist in your home country. Investing in the stock market is just as risky as gambling in the Bahamas, Las Vegas, or in any casino any where in the world.

The congress of the U.S.A. is the primary source of control of the Govt. of this nation. Only when they are threatened of not being re elected do we the people get the respect of these politicos.

World wide communications that are instant has made the business world a place where some will make a fortune today and lose it tomorrow. The only way I can see that we may someday overcome this kind of problem would be for every country to agree to inact laws that would establish a 36 hour delay for any business arrangment to become binding for any reason what so ever, and said commitments would be binding through the entire world.

Peoples from around the world are jelous of the success that the U.S.A. citizen enjoys, compared to their own nations. BUT;

NOBODY GAVE US OUR LIBERTIES OR OUR SUCCESSES, WE AS A NATION HAVE PAID DEARLY IN EFFORT, MONEY AND LIVES.

TMF

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#75
In reply to #70

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 4:10 AM

Toomuchfun,

I think our discussion will lead us to nowhere, however I am making few comments on your post:-

1) I agree that your President is not responsible for fate of our people but to-day world has shrunk due free trade, globalisation and WTO. There are many foreign financial institution who have access to our stock market. Till recently they were ruling the market but due to melt down there was huge withdrawal of funds which crashed our market.

I never invest in stock not single penny I know it is pure gamble. Anyone's profit is someone else's loss. It does not produce any money.

2) I also agree jobs snatched from young Americans is like ill gotten money. For your kind information some young boys and girls here who have worked in call centers have developed bad habits like drinking, smoking drugs,indulging in sex in night shifts etc.

3) It is bad that our people bother you for payments even at your home at odd hours.I think they should be trained as how to handle international business.I also call my clients in U.S but it is only at mutually agreed hour.

4) We are not jealous of U.S rather inspired by its successes. If you read my earlier string I have many of my relatives in U.S.

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#55
In reply to #49

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 3:06 AM

Toomuchfun,

First of all I am glad that you are associated with Free Masion. My friend here in Mumbai India is active member since many year. I also happen to watch on T.V History channel history of Free Mansions and I learnt that your first President George Washington was also a Free Mason.

Coming to the point about oil prices I would say that it was root cause of to-days financial crisis. People had to pay high prices for gas as they couldn't avoid it. This also resulted in defaulting on the mortgage payments. Thus banks suffered huge losses. My opinion about Bush was based on information I got from media and others sources.May be he is not alone to be blamed, but he was silent spectator to what was leading serious crisis. He could have at least stopped spot trading in oil to control run away prices which affected everyone through out the world.

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#46
In reply to #32

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 9:31 AM

grochy

i recently read a post that gave the same sentiment. it was expressed differently. it said that: the problem with capitalism is that greed is glorified, that the most successful greed is held up as national heros instead of shamed for what they are.

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#52
In reply to #46

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/21/2008 1:20 PM

I agree with a lot of the sentiment that this has happened before and will happen again and it is not the end of the world. People are resilient and will work their way out of this.

The difference between whats happening now and what happened in the eighties is we have access to more information and the bigger picture is a lot easier to see.

Their is nothing worse than knowing you are being rodgered by some one and not being able to any thing about it.

On a positive note this should keep commentators, and academia in work for the coming decade disecting and analising what went wrong.

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#37

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 4:27 PM

"should we bury dollars, or buy gold, or both?"

Neither - won't be worth much then. I'd advise investing in a few cases of bar soap and a few of Dawn or some other dish soap. When the cards come fluttering down around everyone, it will be a great barter item, it is cheap, easy to store, and doesn't spoil. Plus everyone will want some.

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#40

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 6:52 PM

>i understand that most of you folks are not financial people, but you have brains.<

Joe after reading the posts, I do not agree with your assumption.

Bobguz

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#43

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/20/2008 9:48 PM

We're likely to be in debtor's prison for quite awhile. The 'Mortgage Crisis' is but one symptom of overextended workers. The loan sharks will eventually consolidate the banking industry; striking a balance between bleeding the masses and defaulting real property. Disclosure of recent tax breaks reveals the promotion of this activity. Speculative money created inflated prices for housing as the middle class competed for control of property. Few had a choice except to participate. Prohibiting fuel economy standards drove up energy prices. Those who can afford big vehicles, homes, and airline rides are allowed to consume unbounded as supply continually tightens. Meanwhile, the law of supply and demand is deemed inapplicable to labor. Wages stagnate as desperate immigrants displace workers and fill low cost housing. Presently, we are stuck with a continuation of trickle down economics which benefits the very wealthy. A lot of loaned paper greased the skids to move an agenda of dominance. Unfortunately, pumping future collections into banks and investors is only refilling blue-blood coffers. As usual, socialism is declared when even a comparative pittance is proposed to stimulate manufacturing and education. Workers are continually set against one another using political/religious polarization. Under the current situation, only the henchmen of the wealthy will prosper. US culture is firmly converted to consumption. It may take years of communal suffering to produce the social incentive, organization, and opportunity for the necessary production to resume.

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#68

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/22/2008 2:55 PM

The republicans backed the Aldrich Bill which did not pass.

The democrats backed the Warburg Bill which passed.

There is no principle of difference between the two Bills but realize the destruction of our country is the result.

But is the 16th amendment legal, it wasn't ratified by all the states??

How many US citizens would acknowledge these facts if asked in a poll?? 5% maybe.

I think lack of training of critical thinking and substantive history is at fault...

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#78

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 12:02 PM

hello everyone,

i sure was happy with all the responses until about posts 44, 49, when this post got highjacked into the blame game. since then this post sucks. that is why i specificly asked for the blame game not to be brought in.

so, does any one have anything more constructive to say about deflation/devaluation?

since this post started, in the news i have heard that the reason for the stock market continuing to tank has shifted to fears of deflation, and that it probably will get a lot worse. i have even started seeing the word devaluation in print.

i do think the doom and gloomers have got it right as to what the future holds.

i think the folks that believe we will survive because we always have also have it right.

i see where BO is talking about massive infusions of money and encourgement for alternative energy research and manufacturing. this in my opinion is the only thing that "MIGHT" help. i think it might stave off the deflationary bottom for awhile. this would give some people the opportunity to shift their focus from consumption to survival. that is a good thing in my opinion. it is considered by the "conspicuous consumption" side as a bad idea. they think we can spend our way out of this problem. but in my opinion, the "conspicuous consumption" side is wrong, in that it will only hold off or slow down the fall. bottom is going to be reached eventually, the only real question is how you will survive. will you be able to feed your family, even when there is no money. farmers are already lamenting that they can not afford to plant crops, that their return from farming is already drasticly less than their cost of planting , maintaining, harvesting, storing and shipping. that their crops in the ground are already only worth half of the cost that they put out to plant them.

in my opinion, you we will see a massive cut back in farming soon. the only thing i see that could prevent this would be a massive increase in farm subsidies (read this as price supports). i am not really in favor of either. but it is beyond my ability to deal with these issues, other than stockpiling food for the hard times to come.

in classical deflation, the price/value of everything drops like a rock because everyone is getting poorer so fast. the great depression didn't end until the build up for WW2. the stock market didn't get back to its pre-depression levels until 1950. i think this scenario might be repeated, NO MATTER WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOES.

further question: what are you folks doing differently to get ready? anything? are you just cutting back on spending, just to keep up with your debts? how are doing? is it working?

i would like to see the "blame game highjack" stop though. it doesn't do any good in this thread.

joe

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#79
In reply to #78

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 1:24 PM

Good afternoon artbyjoe,

I think that you have tossed around your own share of blame some times through the back door method. I think that it would be nice to get off the grid myself and it likely will happen sooner than later.

However, it is simply fool hardy to believe that the masses of this nation will ever be able to provide their own electricity. After all most of them are women and children, and men who either are too lazy or are not sufficiently mechanically inclined to get it done.

You ask what we have done to prepare for this inflationary period and likely food shortage. I have filled two 20 cu ft freezers with meat and a few veggies. I still have 7 small pigs to slaughter. I raise my own chickens for eggs and I have 5 head of cattle, one young bull who may be slaughtered within the next six months. I also have 20 breeding doe rabbits that are the californian meat producing variety. I have been working with the fracturing of water to produce oxy-hydrogen for a little more than 6 years and it is paying off. I am now running a 2 cylinder engine, 650cc on this fuel only. I am looking for a welding generator with a bad engine to attach to it. However it looks like the salvage value of lead is such that buying used forklift batteries will just be a waste of money. I will likely have to buy new ones.

TMF

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#80
In reply to #78

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 2:37 PM

Look, Joe, you can't throw out such a volatile subject and not expect heated opinions on both sides of the issue. My attitude is that this is an engineering forum, after all, and I try really hard to stay out of political discussions, (sometimes I just can't resist though, like now). I have my opinions, and pretty much no one's going to change them, and vice versa. So, at the end of the day, you end up banging your head against the wall.

"Like Senator Huey Long loved to say with regards to the Democrats and the Republicans, one will skin you from the head down, the other from the feet up. ..."

I've not voted for either of these parties for over 30 years. I think this country needs a new revolution.

"The tree of liberty must from time to time be refreshed with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure."
Thomas Jefferson.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Jefferson#Towards_revolution

Truer words have not been spoken.

I think it was you, that turned me on to this web site: www.newswithviews.com Some very interesting reading there, (sometimes, way out there though). Or it could have been a link from that radio talk show host with the mullet. I'm at home now, not at work, so I don't have his link.

Anyway, political rant done.

To answer your question. I've always lived within my means. I live in a modest house, for the last 30 years, payed for. Great location, on a pond, on the edge of a wood. I'm very happy here. I drive a 6 year old Jeep, payed cash. I have no credit card debt. My father told me, if you want to buy something you see, hold off, go home, think about it for a few days, and if you still want it, go pay cash.

I have 3 kids, that I raised myself. They are wonderful young hard working adults. As you can imagine, they are my biggest concern. Of course, if they fall on hard times, I'll do everything I can to help them out.

Now, I'm no Spartan. My passion is travel. I am so very fortunate that I can spend the month of August in some very far away places, (I'm on a Europe kick now). But the point is, I don't float a penny of it. When I return home, it's been all payed for.

The cure to the world's problem is, EVERYONE LIVE WITHIN THEIR MEANS.

"but it is beyond my ability to deal with these issues, other than stockpiling food for the hard times to come."

I have the illusion that I'm a survivalist. I have food and bullets in reserve, but if the shite really hits the fan, none of us are safe. Hungry people will go to the ends of the earth for food. There will be no safe haven. If you read history, this scenario is not all that uncommon.

But I'm an optimist. We will work through this.

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#81
In reply to #80

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 9:16 PM

bricktop,

what a nice post. it was a pleasure to read. these posts sometimes remind me of an article i read a few months ago. it was an older man than myself, i think he was 84, still writing editorials for a small town paper. he said that as a kid he grew up during the great depression, living in a small town somewhere in the midwest. said his biggest memory was his mother scrounging and scrimping every scrap of food she could so that when the hungry farm people came to her back door, she could give them a meal.

i understand how difficult it is to keep politics from high jacking threads. sometimes i find it refreshing to discuss issues without the politics involved. the funny thing is that when you ask people to leave the politics at the door, people are very similar. their solutions and problems are the same. this comes from the entire political spectrum of people.

more and more people i know are stopping and asking my opinion of what it is going to be like in a year and a half. i stop and tell them what i really feel. they then agree that is how they see it also. my advice to all of these people is to stockpile food. worst that can happen is you have to eat the food, just so you can rotate your stock.

by the way that reminds me of something i have been wanting to pass on. i have discovered some lids for 5 and 7 gallon buckets. the brand is called "omega" i can come up with an email address if anyone one wants. the are great. they are two piece. one is a snap on ring with an o ring inside, which compresses against the top of the bucket. the other is a spin down center piece that also has an o ring seal. makes great storage buckets. they are little pricey, but you don't have to fight lids off of 5 gallon buckets, destroying their seal ability in the process.

thanks everyone.

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#82
In reply to #81

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/23/2008 10:22 PM

Joe, I've re-read you original post, and there is no real political slant to it at all. Your basic question was, "what you gonna do?" It's human nature to blame and point, and you got your share of that, (even from me, sorry).

Survival here in the North East, in the winter, takes on an all new meaning. The thing I worry most about is an intense Nor'easter, many feet of snow, services shut down for many days, (infrastructure breaks down because the county runs out of money). So my responsibility is to have enough energy, (wood to burn, food, fuel for the generator and the Jeep, protection, etc, for at least a few weeks. That along with something to barter, like, money, gold, silver, whiskey, bread, etc. Hopefully, I'll have enough to help out my less fortunate neighbors. But after a few days, if there's no plow coming down the street, I too, will have a big problem.

But, barring any really big catastrophe, it's just time to pull back and wait it out.

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#85
In reply to #82

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/24/2008 8:52 AM

bricktop,

barring any really big catastrophe,

those are words that are actually worth considering. one should be aware that in food supplies, the supermarkets have a 2 week supply IN THE PIPELINE, and pharmacys have a 4 week supply IN THE PIPELINE. this is barring a run on either. that is why stockpiling is so important. the average american, might have two weeks of food in the house. if or when something really serious happens, it will be too late to stockpile. there are no downsides to stockpiling. you can always eat it. with gasoline, i am not an expert, but i think adding fuel stabalizer's might extend the life of the fuel. at present i do not stockpile gasoline. my ex-wife 4 miles down the road has too many horses anyway. i am sure i could get one or two from her if need be.

by the way, does anyone know if diesel is more stable than gasoline? how long could you store it and still have it usable?

thanks again,

joe

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#99
In reply to #85

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/27/2008 11:07 PM

Barring bacteria and if kept at about 55°-60° diesel will remain stable for many years.

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#84
In reply to #81

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/24/2008 8:34 AM

hello everyone,

i have a correction to my previous post. the lids i was talking about are actually called,

"the gamma seal lid" or G2 for short. website is: www.gammaplastics.com or

email: service.gamma@sbcglobal.net

my apologies for another item not correct. just add it to my list.

joe

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Associate

Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 31
#88
In reply to #84

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/26/2008 1:06 AM

Perhaps more people should read Atlas Shrugged

Some frightening similarities i n that book and what is happening now and what is going to become a bigger problem with the new administration coming in.

All the billions of dollars that have been lost recently on the stock market were not created by work but by greed, greed of feeding off other people, not by good hard working people we aren't the ones being bailed out. What a bunch of moronic and corrupt greedy people we are here in North America because we are watching and letting this happen before our very eyes. Does anyone really grasp what 700 billion dollars is. and where will it stop.

Well every great empire comes to an end are we reaching ours, and perhaps the shortest living one at that.

And blaa blaa blaa

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Guru

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Mumbai, India
Posts: 1985
Good Answers: 25
#83
In reply to #78

Re: deflation or devaluation

11/24/2008 2:36 AM

Hi Joe,

I am reproducing last para of my earlier post No.14:-

"I don't know what will be fate of my brothers, but I will advise them to face the situation and fight out the difficult time. I would also like all Americans to rise to the cause and tighten the belts and fight out the crisis. I know that there are many people who can lead the masses and bring them out of mess. So stop Whining and do what is good for all Americans."

I absolutely agree with your views and I am sure that everyone will fight the challenging situation whole world is facing to-day and finally come out as winners.

__________________
"Engineers should not look for jobs but should create jobs for others" by Dr.Radhakrishnan Ex President of India during my college graduation day
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