Proposal for new Section: The Art And Science Of Prediction

I must tell you, after consulting my very reliable source.......

^{(outlook not so good)}

A concuring result...

I think I'll have to participate if this comes to be (yes, that's a prediction itself), but I've always had better results predicting the past...

Considering the mess we are in due to the inability of financial 'experts' and 'economists' <spits on floor ..._{but cleans it up quickly in case Mrs Cat catches me}>
to predict anything, I feel you are on thin ice and maybe risking being burnt at the stake... (to mix a metaphor or two)

Del

Del, you are all wet. Or at least you will be. The stake will break the ice, and the burning will melt it. If the fire is hot enough to evaporate the liquid, I predict you will find yourself in a hole!

Maybe Prediction-Correction would be more useful ...

Economists predict things??? I've heard that you can take all the economists in the world and lay them end to end and never reach a conclusion.

If you ask 100 economists what the stock market is going to do, you will get 103 opinions.

One need to rate economist.

One can accept the advice of an 80% right one.

Do the opposite to the advice by an 80% wrong one.

And stay away from the 50/50 guys (99.99 % of them)

It is interesting to come across this now as I was just thinking along these same lines. I had been contemplating a day in the future, perhaps the 300th birthday of the USA or sooner than that, when historians and philosophers would gather in person or online to discuss "What happened to America and why?"

The idea being to draft a new Constitution in the spirit and flavor of the original, with the idea in mind to prevent another decline and fall of a great concept that for (What?) reasons self destructed.

I guess this would be like writing a sci-fi book, like 1984 or Brave New World, as it would constitute a prediction based on the trends revealed by current events and those of the past.

I'm not a writer, but I believe many of us like to consider that perhaps if we had taken an interest in that profession earlier in our lives we would be engaged in that activity today. There are those who say it's never too late. At any rate an aspiring novelist could easily do worse than pick the spirit of these two great novels as a basis for a new work. Both of them are good examples, I believe, of the art and perhaps science of Prediction.

As the great sage and philosopher Yogi Berra said:

"Prediction is a most difficult thing, especially about the future"

Sonny, read science fiction. One of the major theme of the whole genre is prediction, explicitly or implicitly. And here I mean hard science fiction, not phantasy.

Hi All!
Wishing all cr4 members a Very Happy and Prosperous New Year! My prediction for the future, is that sooner or later the theory of wave particle duality is going to be toast. If you don't agree, I am always willing to listen and maybe reply.