What are the Odds ?

50%

Aw, c'mon, don't leave me hanging !

Since there are 4 possible choices, the odds of a correct choice would be 25%, half of the available answers would be correct, that's a 50/50 chance of a correct answer...

You're standing at three light switches at the bottom of stairs to the attic. Each one corresponds to one of three lights in the attic, but you cannot see the lights from where you stand. You can turn the switches on and off and leave them in any position. How can you identify which switch corresponds to which light bulb if you are only allowed one trip upstairs?

Unless the lights happened to be LEDs. Then you may have to wait a bit longer

Or run up the stairs faster.

I'll assume you can see the light, but not the individual bulbs from the bottom of the stair.

That being the case:

1. I would turn on two lights.

2. Go up and unscrew one of the lit bulbs.

3. Come back down turn off one of the switches that I had turned on.

4. I there is still light, then that is the switch for the unscrewed bulb.

5. If there is no light...

60%.

A man is trapped in a room with only two possible exits: two doors. Through the first door, there is a room constructed from magnifying glass. The blazing sun instantly fries anyone or anything that enters. Through the second door, there is a fire breathing dragon. How does the man escape?

I would wait until dark and use the first door

He takes a nap, till dark, then leaves through the magnifying glass room.

OOPS Doorman beat me.

Take the fire breathing dragon door if you wish. The Sun and magnifying glasses are real. Fire breathing dragons are imaginary story book creatures.

There's a $50 bill in the center of an intersection. On one corner is Santa Claus, another corner is the Easter bunny...

You can make one>>>

Doors made of magnifying glass that will instantly fry you are imaginary as well.......

Yet plausible, none the less.

Wait untill night time and go through the magnifying room, Ta Da.

Bazzer

if they are compact fluorescents , there will be an afterglow to be observed.

i agree the 25% answer given by many here all ready is the correct answer.

but each answer is either right or wrong - so once an answer is selected I would think 50% would be correct.

Turn on one light; wait 10,000 hours (when light burns out)

Turn on another then go upstairs to see which one is on; burnt out light is first swtich turned on.

I agree, if the answer is only the numbered percentage. There are two of the four with the same value, 25%.

A) 25%, B) 50%, C) 60%, D) 25%... as written these are four individual responses, so I would vote 25%.

The value assigned to each answer doesn't really matter, so A and D can be of the same value without effecting the probability. The answers might just as well be apples, colors or celebrities; dont pay attention to them, just take into account that they are 4 options and 1 out of 4 is always 25%.

Regards

If the choice of an answer to the question is random, then the chance you will be correct is 100%.

One solution found here.

GA. Though, I prefer to think the response should be 'null'.

The question simply has no answer (at least, not from the possibilities given). It's like asking what is north of the North Pole, or how high is Up, or what is the proper ratio of pine to apple to get pineapple?

Even if the possible answers were re-formulated to make sense, such as:

A') 50%; B') 25%; C') 60%; D') 50%

you then have the quandary of having 2 answers, not 1 answer. Unless the scoring allows either A' or D', there is the possibility that the correct answer is not credited, in which case B' would actually be 'correct'.

As Gödel pointed out, you can have serious logical inconsistencies when self-referential problems are studied. Godel incompleteness theorems

It is the same as picking my lottery numbers. No matter the odds, probabilities, permutations, math, logic, or luck... it's still 0%.

There are four options. However, two of the four are the same. That means you can remove one of the four choices because it would take no more than three tries to get a correct answer. So... your odds of pulling the correct answer is 1 in 3 or 33%.

It may depend on the protocol for scoring the test.

Total sum 160%

Divide by 4=40% chance

Chances of OT=100%

Okay, I'll oblige.

(Which is another paradox, because your answer is no more off the wall than the original question.)

Thank you all - there is a broad spectrum of answers (everything from 0% - 100%) so far, and many with reasoning to back it up.

My brain still hurts. I will attempt another 5 minutes on Saturday (my ickle bwain get's stressed after that).

This question must have an absolute answer ? I'd say a 50/50 chance on an absolute answer to the answer. Bring it on ! I genuinly am baffled and seek some logical answer.

Linguistic ambiguation may be part of the answer (that's a personal thought, not a suggestion).

As there is no way to determine which of the 4 possible answers is correct, you have to assume that at least one of them must be correct. As such, my suggested answer of 1 in 3 must be the answer. There is no other possible solution that I see.

The correct answer is A.

Why is (D) not correct?

I think ozzb got there* first, but may I have a Chimera-to-go ?

Every time I look at this I can find myself arguing with myself. Just a little bit of CR4 topical (I think) / related fun.

* apologies to anyone disagreeing. I don't know, it just looks convincing ! Thought it would be fun to see how the CR4 gang tackled it. Even if no answer is agreed on here, much fun could be had by pinning the question up by the water cooler or coffee machine.

You're right. ozzb got there first.................credit due. I have to admit, I skimmed his answer, because the explanation looked a little headachy too.

If the answer key for the test says that only one answer by letter is correct, then the chance is 25%. If the answer key tries to consider both (A) and (D) as correct, it might seem that the chance is 50%, but only if answering by letter. But then (A) and (D) would factually wrong. Picking (B) won't help, because there is only a 25% chance of doing so.

I say that any supposition leads to a contradiction, or at least a paradox. I'm not sure I have worded this very well, though.

Sorry to shout: I read it three times, still:

WHAT IS THE QUESTION??? that you do not state?!?

It would be nice to know.

Maybe there is an answer to an unstated question,

but this simple engineer is not geared up to such

high degree of sophistication.

It does not matter! The question is either missing or irrelevant, and should be eliminated from the test before the test is given.

As stated, it is impossible to determine without knowing which answer is correct.

However, we can describe all the possible outcomes if we assert that if it is an exam and the correct answer could always be argued to be the one with the correct content and not just the one indicated by the teacher's key, then it is easy to determine the following.

Based on this presumption, if the correct answer is 25% then exactly half of the answers are correct and half the answers are incorrect and so your chance of being correct is unequivocally 50%. If the answer is either 50% or 60% then only one of four answers will be correct and of course your chances will be 25%.

If the criteria is the teacher's key then we must know whether the key marks one or two correct answers. If the key marks only one, then your chance is 25%, if it marks both A and D then we are again back to 50% since exactly half the choices are correct.

Yes, but then half of the answers say 25%, but both are then incorrect....

If the answer is not the correct answer it doesn't matter what actual value of the wrong answers are since the question frames the answer to the correct match. Be sure you reread my answer since I pushed the button to soon and edited it about 6 times before I was satisfied with it.

Or, to say it another way, assuming you are setting the condition that 25% is the wrong answer content, then since the other two choices are different, there are exactly three wrong answers and one right answer, so 25% chance of correct random answer.

The unambiguous derivation of this answer is dependent upon knowledge of the correct answer and it becomes easy because it then falls into two possible states depending on whether 25% is or is not the correct test answer content.

The ambiguous version of the question (as it is stated) puts the correct answer in limbo since no information about the odds of it being in one state or the other is stated. We could assume that they were 50% and calculate the resulting odds but since it already seems apparent that it is a poorly stated question and the possibilities there are infinite I will leave those derivations to someone with infinite time on their hands. (I suppose we could just show the formula but I've got things to do and anyway I'm not a statistician.)

I suppose to be completely unambiguous I must carefully differentiate 25% test answer content from 25% as the answer to the thought puzzle, in case it wasn't already clear.

On second thought, I think maybe the question was carefully written, but as a trick question due to the use of the most likely to be given incorrect answers as a distraction from the larger flaw of missing information in the question about the question.

Are we doing someone's homework for a class in logic or critical thinking?

Little bit of weekend fun. It's fairly easy to find it across the internet. Needless to say, responces vary from barking mad to well explained. I'd advise for health reasons that nobody consider it too much.

Nice circular reference there....

Cruel.

If the correct answer is 25%, then the odds are 50%. If the correct answer is 50%, the odds are 25%. I love it!

It all depends upon...... The question:

What chance to pick the (any) letter - ABCD = 25%
What chance to pick the (a correct) letter by percentage - (AD)BC = 33%
What chance to pick the choice (25%) from the whole (100%) ADBC = 50%

What chance to confuse you = 100% (or nearly)

Assuming the (implied) pick (one only) the right choice (from four) then 25%
could be accepted as a correct answer - to THAT question. However:

A (not the) "correct answer" is very subjective to the question point of reference.
All the answers vary, according to (the question) criteria. The confusion is caused
by the fact the answer(s) can ALL be correct, within their own question reference.

Multiple choice answers. e.g. Have you stopped beating your wife lately?
You "were" beating your wife previously? You are still beating your wife? Or not now?

jt

A housewife, an accountant, and a lawyer were asked ''How much is 2 plus 2?''

The housewife replies: ''Four!'' The accountant says: ''I think it's either 3 or 4.
Let me run those figures through my spreadsheet one more time.''

The lawyer pulls the drapes, dims the lights and asks in a hushed voice,
''How much do you want it to be?''

50% If given a choice of 2.

Bazzer

Lets break the puzzle down.................

1)If you choose an answer to "this question" at random

2)what is the chance you will be correct?

The question in the first part of the sentence is undefined, therefore no right answer can be had.

The question in the second part of the sentence is nonsensical, due to the fact that no defined question exists in the first part.

Since the first part of the puzzle renders the second part nonsensical, the answers, whether percentages or colors, are irrelevant.

Due to there not being a question, logic can not be the tool for an answer. Logic would demand something matching a rule, go full circle.

Trying to fry an egg with no pan

Trying to fry an egg with no egg

0%, if I follow good taste.

40% if I make the rules.

Anything above that would make it 25%.

There is a 100% chance that there is something wrong with us, to still be discussing this puzzle.

OK, I have just decide on an answer;

E) None of the above.

It may not have been on the list, but maybe the answer wasn't either.

No turning back now

May I say many thanks to the op for this thought provoking query.

May I offer my final answer to this query as:

The op writes.... "chose an answer to this question at random... " and the question,

as written, is, ... " what is the chance you will be correct? " ... by selecting

one of the choice answers ABCD. (assuming given, one of them is correct.)

Can the members agree…..

1. The more choices supplied would affect the chance of chosing the right
(or wrong) answer. Example: Imagine having 98 (not 2) duplicate choices plus
the 2 different ones. Then the chance of picking the right (or wrong) one
would be seriously affected for the better or worse (depending upon the
duplicates being right or wrong.) The chance effect would be more than 1 in 3.
Even though we only have 3 answers supplied from which to chose, by chosing
randomly (blind) with 98 duplicates they would provide far more chance of that
answer (choice) being selected. (chance biased to that one answer) yes?

Therefore we can say: the chance of picking the right (or wrong) answer
will be affected by the number of choices (not content) supplied?

2. Because we are obliged to select a choice from 4 at random (op) then
it matters not that we see (or even know) the correct answer at all. I.e.
There is no requirement to study, or be influenced, by the choice contents.

We are asked to "take a chance" at random, in making a / the correct choice.

Therefore we can say 1 in 4, at random, will have a 25% chance of being correct?
Irrespective of the number of solutions (choice content) offered.

3. I think we need to eliminate the "red herrings" (there are a lot of them!)
and be guided by the op's statement, to see the wood from the trees.

Example: the fact that A and D "appear" to give the right answer, while also
casting serious doubt on them providing the right answer, is a deliberate
attempt to mislead. As they are 2 out of 4, by inference, they provide a 50%
chance of being right. But what if they were, e.g. 42% or you knew they were
wrong, would you believe then that they gave a 50% chance of being right?

By duplicating contents, offering semi plausible alternatives, with acknowledged
percentages, and all to good misleading effect they implicate the various numbers.

Smoke screens! Sorry, no cigar!

How this particular instance is written: I will stick to 25% 1 from 4. Random chance.

jt

The fattest knight at King Arthur's round table was Sir Cumference.
He acquired his size from too much pi.

I'm sticking with 0%.

If this question is deemed to be inappropriate by moderation, what are the odds it will be edited?

A) 25%

b) 60%

C) 50%

D) 25%

You can't get there from here.

Seeing how A & D represent the same percentage and most tests are finally graded by an intern with a key. I believe there are still 4 four choices, and most of us agree that 25% is the correct answer. Therefore there is a 50% chance of selecting the the correct A or B answer as determined by the author of the test.

I now believe B is the correct answer.

Upon reflection I have to agree with GH (above) B it is, with 50%

I stand by my 25% based upon chosing one choice at random - as in "blind"
when NOT knowing the content of the choices - but in this case, we do know.

Therefore, I have to agree, knowing the content and percentage, B it is. 50%

BUT... please remember, this B 50% choice is no longer random, a rule breaker?

jt.

The Judge says, "Please tell me why your seeking a divorce?
" Shaun says, "Because I live in a two-story house."

The Judge says, "What kind of reason is that? What's the matter with a two-story house?"

Shaun says, "I'll tell you what the matter is. One story is... "I have a headache"
the other story is.... "It's that time of the month."

I still say it's more of a paradox than a puzzle. The question in the second part refers to a question in the first part that was never asked.

It's impossible for a question that was never asked to have any answer. Right or wrong.

Define an off topic post

Define an off topic post

Anything above 60% OT seems unhealthy.

As with the abstract "question" ^{(I'm with you on that Mark)} 60%

Green=25%

Red=60%

^{Others 50%}

This is what a set of 10 in real life looks like.

25% comes first 6 from ten.

The chance of picking it is 60%.

Try this a hundred times next weekend Kris. A stats pro would beat you to it though. Could have used marbles but they got lost

I'm having one of those, "wish I'd never done it" moments !

This is all on my back burner for for puzzle time fun. Though some might regard this as non-CR4, a debate over statistics and so on seems very much relevant to me. If we were all in a real life situation, and decisions had to be made, it would involve people expressing their views so a majority agreed. The question is a ruse, but the process of debate is not.

I think I think that

If you're just answering the question stated, then I guess any answer would be correct because its an obigatory question. So 100% in that case because anything you'd answer would be correct I'd suppose.

But on the other hand, if what they mean to imply is; of the choices below, then I'm with JT and his answer of 25% because there are four choices. It doesn't matter that two of the values are the same, that's just to throw you. Its either A, B, C or D.

What's the question?

Bazzer.

E) 100%

A little history.................and lots of achy heads.

I like this one. But that's probably just because he's on the same page as me.

Oh my word!! Monty Hall and The Goats! I loved those goats....

Since we're back to probability, this in on topic...

if you are willing to play. Choose an answer take action to this qeustion u must do it in a random fassion guess.What is the chance you will be right ? 25 % if you choose not to play answer is 0%

Since the question is having half chances the probability is =1/2 which is equal to 50%