More On Windmills

Oh, yes. If it could happen in the US, you betcha it could happen in Canada! Totally agree!

Your point? You would STILL be bankrupt and unable to afford to purchase our oil. Or anybody else's for that matter. TINAC! Unworthy of you. You know this!

Why would Canada allow itself to be blackmailed into stopping sales? Oh come on, you can think of some reasons. Lets find a terrorist organization who hates the US. That can't be THAT hard to find! Lets find a foreign power with access to nuclear material that hates the US. That can't be that hard to find either. Now imagine what my spineless leaders will say when they get proof that the Ottawa River will be contaminated with dirty fission products unless they turn the oil pumps to the States off. Silly? What part of this could not happen? Keeps me awake at night. Not you? Well, its not YOUR city is it so why would it?

That is only ONE scenario. Seem far fetched? Maybe a little bit...but I can think of a dozen easier ways to do it. Embassies being targeted all around the world has happened to the US, why would Canada think it is somehow safe? Maybe blackmail is not needed...didn't that guy in South America get a knot in his face and shut off his exports to the US? I know...it was a PR exercise, but it could happen. Not silly at all. Did you not watch the ads in which Amaco was delivering heating oil to poor families? Games maybe, but games with potential consequences.

And remember, we don't HAVE to sell our oil to you at all. China may make a better offer. In fact, I think they already have. My Prime Minister is not spineless at all, unlike much of his cabinet! He doesn't seem to mind shutting the taps off, as this link clearly shows! But hey, no hard feelings, its just business you know!

Coal will continue to be your ace in the hole. No arguement there.

Nice dirty coal. Hmmm.

Cute, but no not convincing. Sorry. Would love to be wrong on this one. Forewarned is forearmed, but y'all have to see the warning signs instead of just laughing them off.

Anyway, I think I have got off the topic of windmills and the costs associated with building them, so I think I shall just mark it as "off topic". Because it is...grin!

Definitely no hard feelings.

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I like reading your comments Yusef. Even when I don't agree, I appreciate the way you unapologetically put your opinion out there. So definitely no hard feeling.

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I approximate the risk of the US and Canada becoming less than amicable trading partners in the next hundred years, to be similar in magnitude to the risk of something causing Mars will careen off course and smash into another planet in the next hundred years.

Possible. Highly highly improbable.

Owing to your Prime Minister's retention of his spine, I also doubt he will cave to the threats of terrorists.

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You have my full agreement on coal being a horribly nasty fuel. It is the worst major fuel used to generate electricity.

I also agree that for the US, it is an ace in the whole.

Do you know who simply cannot function currently without out coal, and who therefor would almost certainly step back from competition with a certain supplier, if should we absolutely insist?

^{(Hint:Starts with 'Ch' and rhymes with 'ina'.)}

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Canada is heavily vested and continues in to invest in the US continuing to buy essentially all of its oil exports.

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But once again, I think we have gone far outside reasonable considerations. Canada and the US will continue to be good buddies and treat each other well. Canada will not experience pussification, resulting in the inability to resist caving into terrorist demands.

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This scenario may make good fiction reading. It does not come close to a probable reality.

Economic forces and ideological forces. Unpredictable pesky things for sure. Hugo Chavez seemed to have a burr up his butt about the US, and considering that his exports into the US were among the highest of any country in the world (half of Canada!) his anti-American rants were not just bark, they had some bite as well. I spent 20 years in the military worrying about reservoirs and watercourses, many of which flowed into the US and trust me, we took those concerns really seriously. Blackmail has been used by extremists pretty regularly (some would say that terrorism is nothing BUT blackmail) but a notable example would be the relatively recent attacks on Danish embassies because of a series of insulting cartoons.

At the moment, we have an Indian uprising, that has threatened to cut all traffic within Canada, and has shut down border crossings. Millions of dollars worth of trade have been compromised on only the last couple of months. Threats were made to cut down power lines and trade routes into the US. This is home grown terrorism (in support of a cause which I actually have some sympathy with). Indians have threatened to halt oil going across the border in the past. The recent past actually. Like last month....grin!

So terrorists don't have to be wild eyed mujahadine staring up at the US helicopter that bombed his house, or some obscure department in the Pakistan government out for revenge , they can be home grown folks with an agenda. And because they are citizens, we must tread lightly!

Chavez did it because he figured an anti-American stance would help his position in the world. And I think he was just knee jerk anti-American in general. Nothing new about that! Nothing stopping Canada from electing just such an idiot. We seem to have a history of electing idiots. There is a powerful environmental lobby here in Canada which has the ear of a lot of politicians. If they had their way, the oil sands would be shut down tomorrow. This same coalition of environmentalists delayed the Keystone project. At the bottom of this article, there is a short list of names. One is a party leader, and like any party leader, has a chance, however remote, of getting into serious power. So it doesn't even have to be terrorists, it could be a grass roots bunch.

Anyway, I just deleted a few more paragraphs which were just manifesto style ranting.

Regards

Thanks for the links Yusef. Some of that stuff is completely new for me.

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I don't really think we're that far apart in our thinking on the subject at hand. I think the apparent differences are based in semantics rather than being substantive.

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I think I understand you to be saying that an interruption in supply could occur and might be have probability large enough it shouldn't be ignored/discounted. You are right. An interruption is possible and might represent a non negligible threat.

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I still don't think Canada would cave to terrorists, foreign or homegrown. The response to correct the interruption (and the effect it would have on Canada) would almost certainly quickly escalate until the it was resolved. It might be politically unpopular, but the government of a state that tolerates open and aggressive hostilities within its boarders, and fails to protect the interests and property, cannot unequivocally be considered the government of those areas.

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My guess is that any terrorist initiated interruption is highly unlikely to last for a meaningful time.

The spice must flow.

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And so while priced would spike, oil consumption would not stop.

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Ever wonder if maybe the Russians aren't the only ones inducing cancer in their enemies? That is purely baseless conjecture. But if Ahmadinejad develops cancer in the next few years, it will arouse my suspicions....especially if it is similar to what Chavez is dealing with.