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US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/25/2014 10:52 AM

"The much-publicized Monterey formation of technically-recoverable U.S. shale oil resources is now estimated by the EIA to be 96% LOWER than claimed or just 4% or from 13.7 billion barrels down to 600 million. Using a little math, that means the hope for 2.8 million jobs become 112k and the $24.6 billion in tax revenues shrink to $984 million."

Are the short term fracking operations worth the possible water demands, environmental, infrastructure and air pollution damages for such small returns? What should we learn from this situation?

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#1

Re: US shale oil downgrade - what should we learn?

05/25/2014 11:14 AM

We should learn not to trust any of those numbers. We also should try to understand what they mean with "resources". They maybe redefined the word meaning.

What if they subtracted everything that is recovereable with fracking leaving only the bits that you get if you abandon fracking at all.

I highly doubt that they did gather important information lately that would warrant a downgrade of this magintude in the resources.

This seems just another political bust in the media.

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#2

Re: US shale oil downgrade - what should we learn?

05/25/2014 11:15 AM

Most fracking jobs I hear about are to recover natural gas, not oil.

So far, every study of fracking has shown that reasonable precautions will prevent any contamination of the water supply, since the distances below ground level are vastly different.

Also, afaik, recovering shale oil has mostly been a 'future' resource to be developed, not one that is needed to supply current oil demands.

Can you supply a link to the story you're referencing?

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#3

Re: US shale oil downgrade - what should we learn?

05/25/2014 11:20 AM

Well with this much money at stake, somebody will come up with a way to recover this oil....

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-20140521-story.html

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#4

Re: US shale oil downgrade - what should we learn?

05/25/2014 11:44 AM

I picked up a job working for a fracking company as one of their electronics techs so I have been doing a bit of a blog over at another site about it.

Tcmtech has gone Fracking!

I have no clue about where those numbers are coming from being the oil reserves we have in the ND region are pushing a trillion plus with a ~30+ % recovery capability given present technology and those numbers come directly from the geologists measuring and number crunching here in the fields.

Presently we have developement of the Bakken, Three Forks, Goliath, Birdbear, Lodgepole and several other deeper formations I cant recall the names of yet going on. Total estimated combined volumes are over 1 trillion bbls and then there is the possible super formation about 7 miles below our feet that if it is what they think it is it would make what we are dealing with now look like oil drips in a driveway!

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#5

Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/25/2014 7:39 PM

I believe the geologists.

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#8
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Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/25/2014 8:40 PM

Its only the geologists have had nothing to do with this. Its the penny pinchers that did this.

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#6

Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/25/2014 8:01 PM
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Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/25/2014 8:39 PM

There ya go. Its all in the definition of what "resources" are.

"...is now thought to be technically-recoverable at today's prices..."

Have the oil price go up and all gets in the green again.

This has nothing to do with the Geology or how much oil is there but just economics and semantics at the same time.

Nothing to worry about.

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#9

Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 12:10 AM

I trust nothing said by the industry after what took place and still taking place in PA Today. It's all greed and forget about clean drinking water and where it comes from.

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#10

Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 2:17 AM

If we burn all these recoverables, the world warms up enough to cancel the gains. By a factor of five. No, I won't link it, it's really old news. The next big crash will be oil company stocks, as governments realize their societies are being destabilized by food shortages caused by corporate legislative capture. Amazing how innumerate this group can be when the bias settings are right.

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#11
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Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 9:44 AM

I sort of go with Will Rogers on this: I believe half of what I read, and none of what I hear. Especially when nearly every source out there has an axe to sharpen on someone else's stone. I say give em all the blood eagle, wretched lot of traitors!

It rains on the just and the unjust alike, so let it rain. The just will stand, and eventually the unjust will perish from the earth. Right now the biggest wolf is the economy, not some environmentally pristine pipe dream. Get people working again, get the mills producing, move our products into foreign markets, then we will talk again. Until then, hot air is just that, hot freaking air. Oil takes less water to produce than corn, so knock it off. Producing grain for alcohol was never a good idea, it is still a bad idea, and it will never change to magically be a good idea. It is a government program designed by people that only know if there whiskey bottle is full or empty.

People who count on the government to fix things are nothing more than lazy dogs, hoping someone will throw them a bone. "You" make me want to puke. There are all sorts of technological breakthroughs in water production/purification, but they all take money, and energy to make the water resources of high enough quality to satisfy the basic needs. After conservation is maximized, one still has to find resources and determine the best way to use, or reuse them.

All of West Texas could be irrigated with water from the wastewater treatment plant of Denver, CO, but the EPA has dictated that all of that water has to go into the Platte River, so Omaha can have a drink of it. Does that make sense to you?

By the way, Denver is "mile high" while Lubbock, TX is only 3320 ft elevation. This means that while tranferring this water to West Texas, hydroelectric power can be recovered about every 700 ft in elevation drop. This makes a lot more sense than pumping water up the Mississippi, now doesn't it?

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#12

Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 3:55 PM

fooey

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#13
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Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 4:58 PM

All I get for that tirade is a fooey?

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#14
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Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 7:12 PM

I usually just give my wife a "Blah Blah Blah.. Whatever." when she goes on a tirade.

Would you like one of those instead?

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#15
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Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 9:39 PM

Relax!

He did not answer to your post, Fooey was the answer to OP.

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#16
In reply to #15

Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 9:48 PM

Sounds like you have an "open mind" when it comes to questioning stuff and maybe learning something from looking at things objectively with an engineering eye and experience.

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Re: US Shale Oil Downgrade - What Should We Learn?

05/26/2014 11:09 PM

I have to call that fooey!

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