Bang! The race is on! I have some predictions, but first you need to read this:
I was just given my first (LED based) direct replacement for 4 foot, T8 lamps that only requires one to swap the bulb out with it's fluorescent ancestor.
That being said, note that this lamp can only be installed in a fixture that has an instant start ballast, but no other changes are required. Since instant start ballast are the lowest cost type to make, they have a large percentage of the market share and consequently this is a piece of cake to install.
It is the best way to grab market share for the LED market and I predict that it will actually achieve the largest market share. It's called strategy!
But since these LED's will outlast the ballast by a factor of 5 or so, the obvious next step is to eliminate the ballast completely. That is also available right now at the lowest possible cost. You can choose however you like. Just know this, many of the LED products that are for sell today will be gone by next year as the better priced options flood the market.
Oh, and to sweeten the pot, occupancy sensors can be included. These products will become antiques before they fail. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!