Pentagon's Prediction Software Didn't Spot Egypt Unrest

I could have (and did) predict that and I would be willing to do that again for, say, only $100M.

Actually, it is hard to believe analysts missed anything. There is more to this story than meets the eye...

Then again, does this thinking software look remotely human and go by the name James Clapper by any chance?

Aw gee, and I thought human behavior was like Newtonian clockwork, predictable with a few simple equations. Gosh, what a letdown.

I wonder if it's spotted he's now resigned in favor of his 'recently appointed vice president' - or has 'read' the 'new guy's' rather interesting bio. - and/or, maybe joined the dots on the military reaction to the protest?

I suspect the military had a strong hand in events. All of Egypt's modern leaders were directly from the military and Mubarak was no different.

Mubarak wanted to see power shift smoothly and originally had his son as the successor, a business friendly leader. That did not sit well with the Egyptian military. The military also wanted a smooth succession and to prevent the constitution from being violated.

The military was running out of options and either it would sponsor a coup, step out of the way and let events go their own way, or back Mubarak.

The coup was the best choice and I suspect that this was actually a soft coup where Mubarak was strongly urged/negotiated to step down to keep things orderly.

All agreed - and each a reason to "stay out of it".

What they are going to get with the VP as President, is however a bit of a worry - in my view.

I thought he has no power and the military council is calling the shots until the next election.

I think this is what you and the rest of the world is supposed to think.

Historically, that is the way it has been for Egypt. Why do you think that has changed?

Do you have information that points otherwise?

What? That Iran is next and then you know who? I'm not sure if and what I am supposed to think but it's so in the air. This whole thing is going to save Obamas reelection and get the best out of the man. He will become a true Statesman after this, just predictions, Ky.

This puts me in mind of some discussions from a fews years back about how the CIA was putting too much emphasis on electornic data gathering, and abandoning the concept of the spy actually talking to people on the ground. It also seems that, every time there is a new crisis, the intelligence agencies lack the language skills to properly interpret the intelligence they do gather...

I am sure, it the CIA had a few operators in Cairo, mixing with unemployed youth trying to raise enough cash to buy a chicken for tonight's supper, or a loaf of bread, the resulting "rebellion" would have been much less of a surprise. I don't believe drones flying over Cairo or anywhere else, or spy satellites, would be able to pick up the mood of the crowd...

SIMILARLY the 2nd NUCLEAR BOMB EXPLOSION/TESTING in INDIA, during the year 1999, was carried out but could not be predicted by USA. The Project Director incharge of this bomb explosion/test later became The PRESIDENT of INDIA, and he is Mr. ABDUL KALAM.

It was claimed by USA that nothing can ESCAPE FROM THEIR VISION AND ALSO CLAIMED that a number plate of a car can be photographed from the satellite positioined 36,000 K.M above the EARTH's SURFACE and can be printed in 0.1 Sec.

DHAYANANDHAN.S, INDIA

You wrote, "It was claimed by USA that nothing can ESCAPE FROM THEIR VISION AND ALSO CLAIMED that a number plate of a car can be photographed from the satellite positioined 36,000 K.M above the EARTH's SURFACE and can be printed in 0.1 Sec."

That is true, but it takes a lot more time to schedule an appointment with a psychic numerologist to find out what those numbers mean. ;-)

That's not surprising because it is the same software that was used to predict global warming.